YESTERDAY HIGH YESTER LOW SETUPADDING MORE INTO my playboook setup, looking for yesterday high or low , using ordef low to confirm my entry take tp at the next quarter point level
GO1! trade ideas
Gold: Do not slacken! 🥱Gold could not yet gain significantly more upward momentum. Therefore, we still consider it 40% likely that the precious metal will drop directly below the support at $2285, thus confirming an already established high of the turquoise wave alt.B. In this case, our turquoise Target Zone would not be reached anymore. Primarily, however, we stick to our expectation that Gold will rise into our turquoise Zone between $2510 and $2631 to place the top of the regular wave B there.
Gold remains bearishThe strong performance of the U.S. ADP employment data in April provided new challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In this context, the reaction of the gold market is particularly worthy of attention. After the data was released, gold fell back 4 US dollars in the short term and then rebounded. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 175,000, showing the strength of the labor market. Salary growth slowed: Salary growth for those who changed jobs fell from 10.1% to 9.3% year-on-year. Although it is still higher than the level at the beginning of the year, it shows a certain slowing trend.
Against the backdrop of strong ADP employment data, the Fed's monetary policy decisions have become more complicated. The gold market will pay close attention to the Fed's next moves, as these decisions will directly affect gold's safe-haven demand and investment value. Investors should remain vigilant during this critical period and carefully evaluate market dynamics.
The market is in a weak position, with pressure at 2306 and 2315. Therefore, if you want to short during the day, you must first pay attention to whether 2300 breaks. If 2300 does not break, gold will go short under such extremely weak conditions. Look at the trend point below at 2250. If 2300 breaks and the strength changes, this wave can still rise to 2315 and 2330 highs.
Trend breakout to the down side.Gold has been trading on a uptrend for a while on the H4 timeframe. It recently broke out to start a down trend. Currently it is trading under resistance which became a support area and heading towards 2,294.
Selling is done in GOLD?2258 support held, but 2340 is now offering resistance. We have Buyers pushing the prices up for sure, see the GREEN UMVD started last week. We have gREEN Bars but TrapZOne is still RED>
Gold analysisGold formed cup and handle pattern in 4Hr frame ...waiting for a breakout for upside .....above 73000......targets 73500,74000 sl 500 points .do your own analysis before investing.
Gold - Next Move Should Be UpThe fibs and structure seem to be aligned and complete... I think the wave down is complete, and we should see ABC or a 1-2 up... once that structure develops we can start to project the movement.
Gold versus SilverGold versus silver hitting a massive support area at 75.
This is why silver's ascent is halting versus gold.
#gold #silver
2024-05-22 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Another round of all time highs but bears printed some bigger bear bars on higher volume but in the overall picture it’s still a trading range around the all time highs for stock indexes. To have any meaning, bears would need strong follow through tomorrow and make meaningful lower lows and test the daily 20ema.
Commodities actually can have a red day. What a time to be alive. Copper sold off for almost 6% and Gold printed a big bear bar too, exciting.
NVIDIA: The stock that saves the market because AI is the reason no asset valuation metric is important anymore. Stock hit 997.9 after hours and my best guess is that most institutions will use this spike as a gift to take more profits. Will see about that in the next 4 weeks.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: Small bear trend in bigger trading range 2300-2454
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Daily 20ema is at 2370, so bulls still closed above it and that means the market is still mostly bullish. Since we printed another ath on Monday, some pull-back was expected. Bulls would like to keep it above 2380 because it’s the most recent support under 2400. They want a big pull-back to make bears question the strength of the selling. Their first target is 2400 and then a breakout of the bear channel. Invalid below 2375.
bear case: Bears got consecutive bear bars on the daily chart. They also see the formed channel and they want to keep the pull-back sideways and as neutral as it gets before a second leg down. My preferred target for the pull-back is at least 2400 inside the drawn channel. It could be that my channel is wrong and we see a faster and steeper drop to 2350 but i highly doubt that. Ultimately, bears want 2300 again soon. I watch the 15m and 1h 20ema closely for shorts. My swing position is very green.
short term: Sideways to up. Had big down today, now a pull-back is expected. Please watch my chart. Invalid below 2372.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 on Tuesday - target 2375, sl 2390. Took 25% off at 2380. +480 so far.
trade of the day: Strong selling with follow through below 2400, given that market could not trade above the 1h 20ema, should have been short since 2414 or once we broke 2400.
Is The Next Upside Target For Gold $2500/oz?Technical Momentum Strengthens
Gold Futures hit an all-time high in 2024 at $2,454 on the June futures contract on May 20th. Since then, futures have corrected; however, gold remains firmly above the rising 50-day moving average at $2,332 and well above the 200-day moving average at $2111. The technical perspective shows momentum studies increasing, with the 9-day moving average trading above the 18-day.
Stochastics are rising from oversold territory, and DMI + above DMI- , indicating that the bulls are technically in control.
Tailwinds Continue to Develop
With a 0% chance of a June rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are focused on September; swaps are pricing in a 58% chance that the Fed will make its first interest rate hike in the cycle.
Geopolitical tensions, rampant fiscal spending, and central bank buying have been the main drivers and have significantly propelled Gold prices recently.
Industrial Metals Strengthen
Performance remains strong in the Precious Metals space and has continued to spill into the industrial complex. Traders continue to monitor manufacturing, Chinese Economic data, and the U.S. economy, which have recently driven copper futures back over $5.00/pound and Silver over $32.00/oz.
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Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Sell goldSell gold as described in the analysis provided and follow the steps specified in Stop Loss and Take Profit
New Strat ?so long story short iwent for this same looking trade yesterday on a new propfirm that i had recently just paid for and well in one trade i blew the account. and i was dumbfounded becuase i knew my analisy was right and turns out it was but heres what i got wrong.
i ended up being impatinet and not sticking to my orginal sell order and felt like i was going to miss out on this amazing opertunity and decidcied to throw out to sell limit order and go ahead and scale out the right leverage and get into the trade live in the market.
so i did that and used the proper leverage that i like and that could pass my account in the very same day and well what do you know +_+ it drops to about 500$ in profit then retraces back up then it did it again and then it traced up to 1000- and then went into 800$ Profit and then retraced agian then went all the way to my stoploss which btw was were i had preveiskiky had my sell order and well i got stoped out and breached my account. and i spent 117$ on the account through myfunded and well then guess what it drop not shi of esacly that point and went all the way to my TP BRUH. and so i took another trade today and relizsed the same set up and im now wanting to understand this set up becuase it has work 2 times esacly the same way within the marketn
Gold Continues Higher . . . Look for Small PullbackWhere are we today? We are in a rising wedge . . . and there is a risk that gold eventually breaks this primary trend levels . . . but, if past is prologue, then we should see a 15 minute retracement into our next buy at the 4 hour HWB long setup. . . around 2391-2393.6 area.
GOLD (GCM2024, XAUUSD)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish.
Price is moving up with convincing
momentum. Respecting bullish PD
Arrays, disrespecting bearish ones.
No signs of reversal. The intent to
reach the DOL/Swing High seems
clear.
The expectation is for Gold to make
further gains. A potential pullback
to 2400 area would make sense as a
zone to buy from, as buying from the
top is not recommended.
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2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side, as long as the bull trend lines are intact and they trade far above the daily 20ema. . They probably want another retest 2450 tomorrow and some higher to make the bears who sold 2450 today, cover. Obvious target above 2450 is 2500, invalid below 2400.
bear case: Bears sold-off for 40 points from the highs but the follow through was not good enough. I think the lower high is reasonable here to expect a bigger second leg down to 2375. So right now they need to keep this a lower high and break the first bull trend line around 2420 for a test of 2400. Invalid above 2445.
short term: Sideways, then down - Invalid above 2443
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 for target 2375, sl 2443
trade of the day: Short 2450 - rejection was good enough and bears got follow through
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase.
Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest."
Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.
In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies.
Daily Footprint Analysis
DXY Silver gold5.20.24 this videos is about you markets the that are coming to are target on an ABCD or any other pattern....but has very aggressive price action that suggests that this is not a reversal.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Morning and I hope you are well.
This is my weekly outlook, written yesterday evening. So market already made the new ath and now I wait to see if they want to squeeze higher or we hit a hard wall for big players to continue to unload.
gold futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: 2285 was the low last Friday and this week held above it and my two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick for the A and the B leg and C was only short 20 points. So I gave you perfect 50 points up, 20 points down and another 50 points up. Hope you made some. Bulls are in clear control and until bears break strongly below 2300 again, we are on our way to retest 2448.
comment: 3 clear pushes up and still not near 2450, which is not as bullish as it could be but it’s still only going up so naturally I look for longs. Market probably will not stop until we print 2445 or 2450 but the recent pull-backs went on long and deep enough for me to think the upside is probably limited.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2290 - 2450
bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320
bear case: All highs in this bull wedge were sold and we already had 3 clear pushes up. Bears will probably get a pull-back on Monday and then market has to decide if it want’s another try at 2450 or higher. First bear target is a retest of the breakout 2400 and then the 4h 20ema around 2390.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2375 and now we are at 2417. No opinion last week.
short term: Small pull-back before another test of 2348 or higher. Invalid below 2370.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
Chart update: Removed bear flag. Added bull wedge.
GoldThis not a trading signal, this is just my opinion and if you copy my trade the risk is on you.
Gold on the daily chart , is @ resistance retesting the previous highs before pulling back to the support levels around $2,353 therefore im entering 2 trades ( one Selling to the support level, and other is ( Buying to continue with the up trend aiming for newer high.
5/12 | $GCWas expecting a dip, however we ripped out of the bull flag. New path of interest will be taking new highs before a buyable dip. That's where I will be interested in playing again.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT after 4Hr Supply Mitigation...?COMEX:GC1!
“Persistence can change failure into extraordinary achievement.” -Matt Biondi
I believe that we are going to be able to catch a nice HIGH PROBABLE SHORT here on GOLD very soon...Being that price is currently trading inside of this Daily Supply and even clearer the Mitigated 4Hr SUPPLY ZONE!! I'm going to wait patiently for PA to continue to develop and then we'll drop down to a LTF and wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh and then we may enter the market SHORT... I will keep update once we get more data printed...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
58% win rate Python trend follow trade set upThis trade set up call SNRC that use previous resistance as support when price break above and comeback to retest
I backtesting this trade set up with Python using 720 day price history data
so you can see the optimization heat map
this is 58% win rate with 2RR trade set up
📉 Gold Futures Parabolic RiseThe black curved line on the chart is called a "parabola," as in "parabolic rise."
A parabolic rise tends to lead to a very strong correction.
The only way to sustained a parabolic rise is... Well, it is impossible, the Gold market fluctuates between up and down.
The peak, ATH, happened on the 8-April weekly session.
This session ended with a long upper shadow followed by a local lower high.
The whole chart structure has bearish potential.
I am here trying to predict a reversal, which is something very hard to do.
In order to predict a change of trend, we always have to jump in when things are not looking the best.
By the time the signals are clear and confirmed, Gold will be trading at $2,300 or below $2,250. I personally wouldn't wait for those.
➖ Some people trade the breakout with low risk;
➖ Some people trade before the breakout with a tight stop-loss and still very low risk but a higher potential for reward.
What you choose, is up to you.
My mission is to alert of the move before it comes.
After the bearish comes a bullish wave.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
