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SVF1! trade ideas

Silver Seasonality In Sync with Intermediate Wave 2Silver should have completed a five wave move down on Friday; if not, it should complete the down move on Monday or Tuesday. The Elliot wave pattern coincides with one of silver's most bullish seasonal patterns. Over the past 54 years, silver has experienced some of its most significant annual gains between July 18 and September 21. If you bought and sold silver at these times every year over the past 54 years, you would have made a profit of 53.7% of the years with an annualized return of 21.12%. These are outstanding results for a trade window of only 6.5 weeks. The results are even better if we restrict our seasonality research to the most recent 10 years. Over the past 10 years, silver has experienced some of its most significant annual gains between July 19 and September 3. The win rate of this period is 50%, with an annualized return of 80.84%. While a win rate of 50-53.7% might not sound remarkable, this is the only time of the year when silver's seasonality is giving a historical annualized return of 21.12-80.84% for essentially a coin flip. And this year is far from a coin flip. Silver has retraced 32.31% over the past four months and has an oversold RSI reading below 30. This is also happening at a pivotal time in silver's Elliott wave structure due to moving from intermediate wave 1 to intermediate wave 2. Over the next 5-6.5 weeks, silver should rise to somewhere between $21.635-$25.465 (between the 0.382 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels). I have marked three vertical lines on the chart. The green line is when silver starts its historical bullish seasonal pattern. The first red line is when silver has ended its bullish seasonality over the past 10 years. The second red line is when silver has finished its bullish seasonality over the past 54 years. The red boxes between the horizontal Fibonacci levels and the vertical seasonality lines represent the approximate profit-taking zone. It's worth noting that while market seasonality can be very useful, there is no theoretical reason why it should repeat. Whereas there are theoretical reasons why Elliot waves exist and why oversold markets correct. Seasonality gives us a higher probability of making a profitable trade, but we must still watch the developing market structure rather than blindly following statistical patterns. We should get out when the market retraces a clear Elliot pattern and silver is no longer oversold, regardless of the price level.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by epistemophiliac
Silver chart analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the price of silver is in a strong bearish trend at $19.25. The current price is $18.62, representing a 3.00% decrease since the start of trading last night. A strong dollar affects all goods denominated in the US dollar. We are now looking for potential first support at the $18.50 level. And now, we will add two more potential lower levels as the following targets are $18.25 and $18.00. For a bullish option, we must first consolidate above $18.75. Then with a further bullish continuation, we could try to test the $19.00 level. And the break of the silver price above would be resisted by the space for targets at $19.25 and $19.50 levels.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Financebroker
Silver chart analysisThe price of silver continues its sideways movement in the $19.00-$19.50 range. During the Asian trading session, they were below the midpoint of $91.25. It could be said that the price of silver will retest the support at the $19.00 level. For a bearish option, we need a drop below $19.00; after that, we can expect a continuation of the bearish trend. Potential lower targets are $18.75 and $18.50 levels. For a bullish option, we need a new positive consolidation, and a return above $19.25 left first. Then we can expect growth to the upper resistance zone at $19.50. A break above would increase optimism that we can see further price recovery towards the $20.00 level.
COMEX:SI1!
by Financebroker
SILVER FUTURES (Sl1!), H1 Potential for Bullish MomentumType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 22.565 Pivot: 21.495 Support : 20.840 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 21.495 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to intermediate resistance at 21.955 in line with swing high resistance and 127.8% fibonacci extension . Should price break intermediate resistance, we would have a bullish bias that price will rise to 1st resistance at 22.565 where swing high resistance is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop 1st support at 20.840 in line with the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .
COMEX:SI1!Long
by Genesiv
Silver chart analysisThe failure of the silver price to make a break above $ 22.00 at the beginning of the week started the bearish trend, which this morning formed a new lower low at $ 20.75. Early this morning, the price of silver broke the support to $ 21.00 and fell to $ 20.75. The pressure on the price is still very present on the chart, and we will likely see the continuation of the bearish trend towards the $ 20.50 level. A break below this level brings us down to the May support level at $ 20.42. For the bullish option, we need a new positive consolidation and a return above the $ 21.00 level. It is then necessary for the price to remain at that level, forming a new higher low from which a new bullish impulse would begin. Potential higher targets are $ 21.25 and $ 21.50 levels.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Financebroker
SILVER FUTURES (SILVER1!), H1 Potential for Bearish MomentumType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 61692 Pivot: 60565 Support : 59367 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud which supports our bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 60565 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 59367 in line with the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break through pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance level at 61692 in line with the overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection . Fundamentals: As investors are seeking to hedge against inflation , we have a weak bullish view on silver .
MCX:SILVER1!
by Tickmill
Silver chart analysisSince the price of silver failed to exceed $ 22.00 yesterday, a pullback followed, which formed a four-day lower low at $ 21.25. Since then, the price of silver has recovered to $ 21.45. We should be at $ 21.50 soon, where we come to moving averages, and we need a break above to return to the positive zone. Our targets are $ 21.60, $ 21.75 and $ 22.00 resistance zone. We need continued negative consolidation and a pullback to this morning’s low for the bearish option. A break in gas prices below this support level would bring us down to the $ 21.00 level, where we would test last week’s low.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Financebroker