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German DAX 40 Index

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GER40 trade ideas

Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). Analysis --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Germany 40 maintains its bullish momentum in an impulsive phase, currently trading at 20,324, slightly down from the highs but significantly above the VWAP (20) of 19,936. Support is positioned at 19,046, with resistance nearby at 20,825. The RSI at 66 indicates strong momentum, suggesting the uptrend could continue. UK 100 index remains neutral within a consolidation phase, trading at 8,272, slightly below the VWAP (20) of 8,303. Support is at 8,249, and resistance is at 8,357. With an RSI of 50, the momentum is balanced, reflecting a lack of directional bias. Wall Street has entered a correction phase within its bullish trend, trading at 43,850, below the VWAP (20) of 44,572. Support is at 43,800, with resistance ahead at 45,394. The RSI at 43 shows weakening momentum, suggesting caution as the uptrend may reverse in the short term. Brent Crude continues in a neutral consolidation phase, which now looks like a clear triangle pattern, currently priced at 7,376, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 7,270. Support is positioned at 7,063, while resistance is at 7,478. The RSI at 54 indicates moderate momentum, consistent with range-bound trading. Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase with little change over the past week, trading at 2,658, near the VWAP (20) of 2,650. Support is set at 2,598, with resistance at 2,713. The RSI at 50 reflects balanced momentum, signaling indecisiveness in the market. EUR/USD continues in a bearish correction phase, trading at 1.0502, slightly below the VWAP (20) of 1.0520. Support is at 1.0444, and resistance is at 1.0601. The RSI at 42 indicates bearish momentum, hinting at continued downside pressure. GBP/USD is in a bearish correction phase, trading at 1.2653, back below the VWAP (20) of 1.2670 but inside horizontal VWAP bands. Support is at 1.2543, and resistance is at 1.2817. The RSI at 43 suggests mild bearish momentum, with potential for further downside. USD/JPY is bullish in a correction phase, trading at 153.83, now back above the VWAP (20) of 151.61 in what could be a sign the uptrend is resuming. Support is at 148.22, and resistance is at 154.99. The RSI at 60 reflects strong upward momentum, suggesting further gains are likely.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxtl;dr dax xetra: Market has printed the most shallow two-legged pullback imaginable and this is as bullish as it gets. Are bulls getting stopped by at least 2 upper trend lines which could continue to be resistance? I highly doubt it. If we get above 20600, there is no reason to not just go to 21000 or higher. I have two potential measured moves above 21000 but until we have a daily close above 20800, there is no reason to look for targets that high. Bears can only begin to dream again with a daily close below 20000. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: Since the market did not go down even the slightest, we can not hold any other thoughts than bullish ones. I won’t do anything other than small scalps on this though. On my chart I have marked the most extreme cases to either direction for the next 3 weeks. I give the bearish one a chance of at max 30% while the bulls are heavily favored to either move higher or at least sideways only. I can’t really imagine reaching 21500+ but that’s the biggest measured move I have calculated. I do think 21k and then sideways is the most reasonable outlook. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls send a strong message, closing Opex above 20000, so they remain in full control and 21000 has become a possibility for the next 3 weeks. We are still trading near at least 2 upper bull trend lines but since market is not showing big reactions to the downside, we can only expect higher prices. A daily close above 20500 brings 21000 in play. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: The pullback did not manifest at all and even if bears get this down to 20000 next week, I think we find way more buyers then sellers at that price. Bears really have no arguments at all on their side, besides the upper trend lines which are above us but at this point, I doubt they will be much resistance going into the next 3 weeks. Only thing that would make me more neutral would be a really strong bear bar closing below 20000 tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to do that, we could test down to my C target from last week, which is the breakout price around 19670. For now, I won’t look for shorts unless we see a huge volume increase on strong follow through-selling. Invalidation is above 20500. outlook last week: short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. → Last Sunday we traded 20384 and now we are at 20405. Perfect outlook, given I was neutral until bears would come around. They did not and market went nowhere on the week. short term: Given that we are in the most bullish season of the year and bears could not even get the market to drop into Opex, I can not hold any bearish wishful thought anymore and I will only look for small long scalps over the next 3 weeks. Daily close below 20000 would make me reevaluate. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade : None chart update: Added potential measured move higher.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
DAX and SPX - brother & sister How to read the chart? In the historical point of view, the ratio between the DAX und S&P 500 is swinging in significant boundaries. This boundaries are signed in the Chart with red dashed lines above or below a center line (average). What you also can see, is the developement of DAX and S&P500 in EUR resp. USD with separate scales. Where is the beef? The extremes of these ratios show very reliable extremes of the DAX and S&P. And it doesn‘t matter, wether the extremes in DAX are significant lows OR significant highs. Last monthes: Because the last relativ low below the red dashed line was a relative Low in DAX and SPX, the actual low below the red dashed line must be the indicator for a relativ High in the DAX and SPX. So: for sure, big direction is ahead, even DAX and SPX can gain another 5-8%. Dan, 11th of december.
XETR:DAXShort
by Flyerdan
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup Trade Logic: - Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones. - Confluence Factors: - Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry. - Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum. - Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance. - Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation. - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): - Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk. - 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart. - Targets: - TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity. - TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open. - Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias. - Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation. Execution Plan: - Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it. - Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2. - Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup. Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Fondera
09.12.24This week, markets will focus on U.S. inflation data, the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report could shape Federal Reserve rate decisions ahead of their final 2024 meeting, with inflation concerns heightened by strong jobs data and tariff risks. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to deliver its fourth rate cut of the year on Thursday, amid weak business activity, political instability in Europe, and a weaker euro. Investors will also monitor the resilience of the ongoing stock market rally, as record-high indices face potential pressure from key economic data. US30: Price took lows at 44712.97 then price reversed sweeping Friday highs 45102.95 before trading lower towards 44606.01 price still traded within the previous weeks range. Already this week price has pushed past my first target of 44604.60. I still see price pushing lower towards lows are 44463.09 and 43521.40 GER40: After price broke Octobers highs of 19679.3 price continued to rally higher toward my goal of 20550. Germany as the biggest economy in the Eurozone and major export driven economy, many factors have supported the GER40
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by S0202Trades
DE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour AnalysisDE40 (German Index) – Weekly Insight and 4-Hour Analysis The German Index (DE40) has been strongly bullish over the past week. However, I’m currently avoiding any long trades, and here’s why: Whenever the market rallies sharply—especially with DE40—there’s a high probability of a sudden crash before you can react. While the 4-hour time frame shows slight corrections, these pullbacks lack strength and conviction. Impulsive entries at this stage could expose your capital to unnecessary risk. Ideal Trading Scenarios: Fibonacci Retracement Setup: Wait for the price to pull back to at least the 50% retracement level on the Fibonacci scale. If the price shows clear signs of bullish momentum or a pullback at this level, it could signal a good opportunity to go long. Key Level Test at 19,670: If the price continues to drop instead of stabilizing at the Fibonacci retracement level, watch for it to test the key support zone at 19,670. Once the price confirms this level, it may provide a solid entry point for a long trade. Liquidity Sweeps and Wicks: Look for a liquidity sweep, such as a significant wick to the downside, indicating a potential reversal. This confirmation can offer an additional layer of security for long trades. Important Notes: Protecting your capital should always be your top priority. Avoid impulsive trades during shallow corrections, as they often lack follow-through. Be patient and wait for clear retracements or liquidity sweeps before entering the market. Making no money is still better than losing money. Final Thoughts: Patience is the key to success in such a scenario. Avoid revenge or impulsive trading, and let the market come to you. Focus on protecting your capital and only act when the setup aligns with your strategy. That’s it for today’s analysis. I hope this helps you in your trading decisions. Don’t forget to like and comment if you find this valuable—it keeps me motivated to provide more insights!
ICMARKETS:DE40
by KainT21
My expectations of DAX!Hi guys, I hope you are doing well ** The used time frame for my analysis is 1h frame on the chart, however, I used too the 6H, 8H and daily frames to see the bigger image which all support still my decision. ** As you see the purple trend line which acts as a strong support to the price to push up from. ** The red triangle is very important here too, as the break through (not by a wick but by a closed closed body) in either way will determine the direction if it will be bullish or bearish however, I see the pure wish to break to the upside of the triangle towards 44460-44470 ** I hit already on my previous idea for Dax 4 TPs in a row and I am looking to the 5th one here so I created a separate idea for to make it clear. ** The whalers understand well that small retail investors are looking to short so they enjoy hitting their stop losses and in mean time they did not reach to their target yet as I said that early enough to catch the bullish wave profit and I see still a room to go further up. My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by moustafa_marei
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds