DAX at the Top: What to Expect?The DAX index starts on an uptrend , boosted by the positive close on Wall Street. Today, several crucial and expectation-boosting releases are expected from the German market, including Q4 2023 GDP growth, which is anticipated to be slightly negative at around -0.3% vs. 0% previously, as well as business sentiment reports from the IFO Institute at the University of Munich, which are expected to show a more positive outlook than in previous reports.
In mid-morning, we will be watching for releases on consumer inflation and statements from European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel. Schnabel has emphasized in her September statement the inflationary acceleration, attributing it to the pandemic cycle and the excessive increase in money demand as a need to be met, advocating output to combat recession and strong disinflation. Will the ECB's "quantitative money theory" follow suit? This could have a big impact on the euro zone. According to Schnabel: "inflation is not always everywhere a monetary phenomenon", and it is true that the ECB has expanded capital on a par with the US Fed. We will see if they continue along these lines.
If the Euro zone decides to apply a rate adjustment to curb its inflation, it could generate a liquidity problem, and if it does not do so, it could continue to increase inflation considerably, which could collaterally generate a devaluation of the currency, and it is possible that the euro could become a Carry-On-Trade currency for the large banking operators if it continues in this way. Japan and Australia are already clearly in a similar economic period to Europe with a totally different debt composition, more internal than external. But Europe has a problem of excessive public spending that must be curtailed, and this could also have a major impact on the DAX and the euro. The DAX movement could also be influenced with the US elections after the first quarter, and Ursula von der Leyen's self-appointed second term as president of the European Commission yesterday. You should pay attention to these developments.
From a technical point of view, the DAX has been in an uptrend since November, surpassing previous highs during the Christmas rally. After a correction in early January, coming out of its previous accumulation zone, it has climbed creating a new price accumulation zone, which was pierced on February 16, made support on the 20th and yesterday has returned to highs. Focusing on the RSI divergence we see that its trading strength has fallen to 59% versus the 78.13% it reached yesterday at 12 midnight European time. Although today we see a slight trend exhaustion, the ECB seems to be able to support this trend, which could take the index to the 18000 area in this quarter with probability, given that it is the upper zone of a channel of greater monthly progression, and must test that area in some way or another, this rebound that is forming today looks like a stop to take breath of a higher rise. Currently its all-time high price is at 17433.20, so it would not be unusual to see another strong engulfing move. Clearly the value building has been organized by the smart money that wants to collect interest thanks to the dividend of many companies listed in the German index.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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GER40 trade ideas
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon.
dax
bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600.
bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices.
short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow
medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away
trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
ger 30the ger30 has broken through its all time high.
this is a big indication that the ger economy is at steady growth .
over a 400 pip move to the upside
we saw the same move to the upside on us100 in the asain session.
the news release for the eur has been in bullish favour this week.
hope this help
#happytrading
RR=2 Sell ideaPrice at resistance level + RSI crossover on overbought zone + bearish butterfly butterfly pattern : I am expecting a correction to at least retest the 17070 Support level
PS : never risk more than 2% of your capital per trade
DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term.
If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence.
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I am observing the development of a double-top formationWe have a 1,2,3 top formation, a clear warning of trend reversal. The critical turning point occurs at Point 3, where the failure to exceed Point 1's peak underscores a noticeable lack of interest in maintaining the current bullish momentum. This pattern's inability to create new highs is evidence of diminishing buying pressure, a precursor to potential downtrends.development of a double-top formation, which, along with a falling wedge pattern, signals possible turning points in the market.
We have also a recent double-top pattern, with two distinct peaks at similar price levels. This suggests strong resistance and a potential bearish reversal. If the price breaks through the support level, which acts as a neckline between the peaks, this could confirm the trend reversal.
At the same time, the falling wedge pattern indicates a bullish undertone. This pattern requires a confirmed upward breakout with sufficient volume to validate a reversal. The falling wedge is usually recognized as a bullish pattern that occurs after a downtrend and suggests a possible reversal if the price breaks upward.
However, until a breakout is confirmed with significant trading volume, I am assuming that the current downtrend will continue.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 20/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaTheres a full video analysis posted before this.
The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal.
Here's the breakdown:
- Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move.
- Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move.
- Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience.
Trade Idea
- Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside)
- Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March.
- Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range).
- Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaGDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade Idea
The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal.
Here's the breakdown:
- Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move.
- Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move.
- Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience.
Trade Idea
- Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside)
- Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March.
- Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range).
- Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
Weekly Technical Analysis 19/02/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
www.tradingview.com is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 16,955. The index finds support at 16,799 and faces resistance near 17,111. The RSI stands at 58, indicating a positive momentum but not yet overbought.
UK 100 is in the impulsive phase of a neutral trend with its price above the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,620. The index's support level is at 7,514.3, with resistance at 7,725.8. The RSI is at 58, suggesting a bullish momentum.
Wall Street is in an impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price above the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,482. The support for this index is at 38,064, with resistance at 38,900. The RSI is at 57, indicating positive momentum.
Gold is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with its price just below the down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 2,025 but close to it. The support level is at 1,993, with resistance at 2,057. The RSI at 49 indicates a neutral to bearish momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction.
EUR/USD is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with the price waking just above its 20-period VWAP of 1.0787. The support is at 1.0706, with resistance at 1.0864. The RSI at 46 indicates a bearish bias, suggesting potential for further declines.
GBP/USD is consolidating in what has been a weak bearish trend, with the price below the flat-to-down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.2626. Support is found at 1.2529, with resistance at 1.2732. The RSI at 47 suggests a bearish outlook, with room for downward movement.
USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 148.75, having recently probed above the upper StdDev #2. The support level is at 146.28, with resistance at 151.22. The RSI is at 62, indicating strong bullish momentum.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 19/02/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detectedDAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detected
The price could reach 17 145 according to Fibonacci retracements, before falling to 16 875, then 16 690
American PMIs could influence this movement
Monitor the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages
A BUY put strategy on MARCH or JUNE is possible
stay careful
DAX, this has to drop somewhenHello everyone,
against all fundamental backdrop the DAX has created a new ATH, which is inline with my elliot wave analysis. To make it short I want to trade against the strong trend movement to catch a correction back to the 16k area . Confirmation will be the break of the current area of 16750 .
If you want to scalp this you can just set your SL over the recent high. I prefer to have it higher, in case there will be one more wave.
DAX: Market Top is being formed. DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing under the 1D MA50 will be the ideal sell signal to target the S1 level (TP = 16,350).
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What you are NOT seeing in the DAX weekly chart Most analysts and traders are looking for traditional charting tools when looking for a trade opportunity.
However, looking at charts differently can bring up valuable information.
After all, the whole idea of analyzing price charts is to predict the next market move based on the behavior of the masses, which is reflected in the price chart action.
Long story short for this case, based on the info we provided in the chart: this price could be a good risk/reward for a SELL trade for the next few weeks, targeting a 6% move to the downside.
Also, from a fundamental point of view, do we have the context of another 5% up move in the next weeks? If not, this is another argument that sustains a ranging price move in the area of 16200-17400 EUR.
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild.
I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy.
dax
Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel.
bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices.
bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: down - nothing will change that.
trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
German40 All Time High - Time to go down Significant ATH with a nice wick of the 1H candle left. Bad fundamentals for EU this morning. Correction time. 1:10 RR. Stop loss a bit above the high as sometimes bigger shadows are created, plus we have an event in the afternoon. Good luck
DAX H4 | Potential bearish reversalDAX (GER40) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,037.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop Loss: 17,087.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take Profit: 16,791.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
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DAX Short - U.S. CPI data breached trend structure Expecting a technical followup lower after CPI market dump.
Good RR.
Short position earn interest thru holding too.
Good Luck!
ger40 bullishthe ger40 indecie broke a strong area on resistance 23 jan 2024, came back to retest on 31st and again13th -14th feb 2024. area 16800.s has turned in to a strong support area. and the current bullish candle shows there is lot of buying entering the markets
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 15/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
