DAX sold for mad R (56R) Picking tops is extremely hard (but the potential R rate is huge)
using 18530 it is a whopping 56R
GER40 trade ideas
The continuation of the bullish market and then the wave degree Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
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Weekly Technical Analysis 25/03/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has continued its bullish trend in the impulsive phase, with a notable rise in price to 18,210, now positioned above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,896. The index has established new support at 17,513 and is encountering resistance near 18,279. The RSI has slightly increased to 71, suggesting sustained positive momentum.
UK 100 has shifted to a bullish trend, now in the impulsive phase, with its price at 7,916, positioned significantly above the still quite flat 20-period VWAP of 7,722. The index's support level is now at 7,526, with resistance identified at 7,917. The RSI has risen to 69, indicating a strong shift toward bullish sentiment.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend in the impulsive phases but put in a large bearish engulfing candle, with the price adjusting to 39,402, still above the upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,964. The index's support is at 38,258, with resistance determined at 39,669. The RSI is at 59, reflecting a shift towards a more bullish momentum state from neutral.
Brent Crude has slightly adjusted in its bullish trend, remaining in the impulsive phase, with its price decreasing to 85.23, above the up-sloping 20-period VWAP of 83.91. The support level is at 80.66, with resistance closely set at 87.16. The RSI has decreased to 59, indicating a slight reduction in bullish momentum.
Gold continues in a bullish trend and is still in the impulsive phase, with the price consolidating to 2,166, marginally above the 20-period VWAP of 2,157. The support level has been revised to 2,104, with resistance now at 2,210. The RSI has decreased to 60, still reflecting strong bullish sentiment but slightly less than before.
EUR/USD might be coming to the end of its bullish trend and is now in the corrective phase, with its price at 1.0819, below its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0885. The support is now at 1.0789, with resistance at 1.0980. The RSI at 43 indicates a shift to negative momentum.
GBP/USD has shifted to a bearish trend in the impulsive phase, with its price at 1.2605, below the 20-period VWAP of 1.2731. The support has been adjusted to 1.2570, with resistance at 1.2892. The RSI at 38 suggests new bearish sentiment.
USD/JPY has flipped back to a bullish trend, recently entering the impulsive phase, with its price at 151.35, significantly above the 20-period VWAP of 149.26. The support has been revised up to 145.94, with resistance at 152.59. The RSI at 64 indicates a shift toward stronger bullish momentum.
Is Germany's economy the biggest indicator for DAX traders?For over half a year, traders have been witnessing the epic rise of Germany’s Dax index (DE30), recently passing $18,000 (USD). For decades, the index, a beacon of Germany's corporate power, seemed invincible, with its German companies all reaching new peaks. But beneath this veneer of German engineering and strength, the foundations are shaking. Germany's robust economy, the engine of Europe, is showing unmistakable signs of wear.
Just last year, economists started pointing to the subtle yet telling signs of an impending downturn for Germany. Since then, GDP growth was slashed to 0.2% for 2024, a significant and disturbing downgrade from previous forecasts. The manufacturing sector continues to suffer from weak global demand and high energy costs, with harsh implications for future exports.
In addition, shortages in skilled workers plague major industries, and yet the unemployment lines, rarely seen in this land of efficiency, are growing.
Despite all this gloom, the DAX continues its upward trajectory, seemingly oblivious to any doom on the horizon. There is a clear disconnect between the DAX's performance and the weakening German economy. Perhaps the market, often driven by sentiment, has not yet caught up with reality. If that’s true, then we are all looking at a pending opportunity to take a position before the action begins.
Germany’s economic indicators are contrasting the current DAX price trend. For technical traders, all signs are bullish. But for economists and fundamental traders, shorting DE30 at the all-time high may well seem like an obvious move.
Before you trade DE30, consider that the markets are not reacting with traditional patterns.
In theory, it makes sense that the top-performing companies of an economically failing nation would experience financial complications, but we are seeing a similar and puzzling disconnect in the US too. Despite all the woes, USD and US indices are still flying high. Coincidence? Maybe.
One thing is for sure, traders closely watching the current political and economic stage will stand a better chance of being the ‘early bird’ for any major rallies and crashes in 2024.
Sehr bullischGer40 is still having a great bullish run, being that last week it opened and closed out of the previous month high for the first time. Not much high impact news coming from the German markets
DAX H4 | Approaching overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,131.66 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 17,850.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,779.98 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level.
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GER30 Weekly Idea 3.24.24Multi-frame Highs and Lows, OB's and IB's. Bullish Uptrend, Price hasn't broken structure as yet.
DAX- Bullish Movement What's up traders...
Expecting huge bullish movement on DAX,, SL is a 4 H closing candle below the channel
Goodluck
DAX - There is a resemblence until now.. There is a resemblence between oct 2020 - november 2021 and now. I am following this trend for a while and if you do the extending fibonacci calculations it all adds up nicely.. But this is DAX and nobody can know for sure
DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX
We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat.
Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
Ger30 BUY soon?Ger30 is abit too high for me right now. I would like to see it pull back to my points of interest and if it does I'll be looking to go long.
Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves█ Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves
In the intriguing world of stock trading, the research paper "Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves" by Andrey Kudryavtsev takes a deep dive into the dynamics of stock price behavior, particularly focusing on interday reversals.
Key to this study is the exploration of potentially profitable contrarian strategies. Preceding research has shown that these strategies, which bet against the current market trends, can yield significant abnormal returns – approximately 1.7% weekly and 2.5% monthly.
The study analyzes thirty stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, focusing on high-to-close and low-to-close price differences. It finds that stocks usually have higher returns following days with significant end-of-day price drops and lower returns after days with end-of-day price rises. These patterns suggest a market correction of overreactions. Based on these findings, the construction of daily-adjusted portfolios shows significantly positive returns, indicating the profitability of trading strategies based on these reversal patterns.
█ Research Background and Hypothesis
In stock trading, the concept of price overreaction is not new. Prior studies have established that stock prices often overreact to news, leading to a subsequent correction or reversal to a more 'fair' reaction level.
This is particularly evident in intraday stock price movements, where overreactions and reversals are commonly observed. To investigate this, the study utilizes high-to-close and low-to-close stock price differences as proxies for end-of-the-day price decreases and increases. These price differences are compared for each stock in the sample and on each trading day.
The hypothesis is that the daily return of a stock will be higher if its previous day's high-to-close difference is greater than the low-to-close difference.
█ Methodology
Let's get into the nuts and bolts. The study focused on thirty stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Trading data from January 2, 2002, to September 30, 2011, encompassing 2,456 trading days was analyzed. Kudryavtsev used these stocks' daily high, low, and closing prices, as recorded on finance.yahoo.com. But it wasn't just a straightforward data grab.
The prices were meticulously adjusted for dividend payments and stock splits. This adjustment was done by multiplying each actual price by the ratio of the day's reported adjusted closing price (as per Yahoo Finance) to the actual closing price.
⚪ For each stock and for each trading day (except the first day of the sampling period), two key metrics were calculated:
High-to-Close Price Difference (RHCit): This measures the difference between the stock’s daily high and closing price.
RHCit := math.abs(high - close) / close * 100
Low-to-Close Price Difference (RLCit): The difference between the stock’s daily low and closing price.
RLCit := math.abs(low - close) / close * 100
These differences are expressed as absolute percentage price differences, ensuring they are non-negative values. By focusing on these two metrics, the study aimed to capture the essence of the stock's performance and its potential for a reversal the following day.
█ Findings and Analysis
For most stocks analyzed (28 out of 30), mean daily returns were higher following days with dominant high-to-close price differences, i.e., days closed with price decreases.
This trend was statistically significant for most of these stocks, with 22 showing significant mean return differences at the 5% level, including 15 at the 1% level.
Furthermore, for most stocks (29 out of 30), mean daily returns were positive when the previous day's high-to-close price difference prevailed and negative when the low-to-close difference did.
These results support the study's hypothesis, demonstrating a pattern of reverting behavior in stock prices following end-of-the-day price moves. Such findings contribute to the existing literature on stock price overreactions and market inefficiencies and suggest potentially profitable opportunities for traders who can capitalize on these predictable reversal patterns.
█ Implications for Traders
Andrey Kudryavtsev's study offers valuable insights for traders, especially those focusing on short-term investments. The key findings highlight a consistent pattern where stocks tend to reverse their price movement the following day after significant end-of-day changes.
For traders looking to capitalize on these insights, the study suggests constructing portfolios that adjust daily based on the observed reversal pattern. This involves holding long positions in stocks expected to yield high returns (following large high-to-close price decreases) and short positions in stocks expected to yield low returns (following large low-to-close price increases).
By comparing the high-to-close and low-to-close price differences to the mean and median measures for the total sample, traders can identify stocks likely to follow the reversal pattern. This approach could be particularly effective for day traders or those who make frequent, short-term trades, as it leverages the daily fluctuations in stock prices. However, traders need to consider transaction costs and market volatility, which can impact the profitability of such strategies.
█ Reference
Kudryavtsev, A. (2013). Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves. Economics Letters, 118(3), 203-205
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
DAX long term targetsDAX will go up and up and up.. it seems. We may see some corrections but the target remains around 20K
GER40 Down.GER40 Down.
Lower Low with a deep V.
Divergence, naturally.
It should go low. And then we do have a Stop.
4x move.
