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deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓ ### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook** #### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors** - **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00. - **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it. - **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns. #### **2. Technical Analysis** - **Key Resistance and Support Levels**: - **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00. - **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low). - **Technical Indicators**: - **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective. - **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside. #### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook** - **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**: - **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00. - **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50. - **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**: - **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence. - **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow. #### **4. Key Risk Factors** - **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar. - **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion. ### **Conclusion** The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
TICKMILL:DXYShort
by trade1638
The best strategies if the US dollar rebounds this summerFor several months now, the US dollar (DXY) has been under pressure against the major currencies, falling by over 11% since the start of the year. However, technical and fundamental signals suggest that a low point could be reached this summer. In this scenario, it is essential to measure the possible consequences on the markets and anticipate the best strategies to protect or boost your portfolio. At this stage, the US dollar has not confirmed a major low, but it will eventually happen, so it's important to anticipate the consequences for all asset classes, and identify the best strategies to implement at an early stage, particularly on Forex. In this new analysis in the TradingView columns, we ask a number of questions, including the impact on gold, the price of bitcoin and Forex vehicles for exposure to a possible rebound in the US dollar. 1) On the technical front, many of the bearish targets have been made The first point to watch is the technical configuration. The DXY is now evolving on long-term support levels, with divergences indicating that the downtrend is running out of steam. Indicators such as the RSI and MACD show that selling pressure is weakening on the weekly timeframe. The monthly uptrend line is still active, although the signal varies according to the scale chosen. It's still too early to say that the US dollar has made its final low, but it's worth bearing in mind that most of the bearish technical targets in Elliott waves have been made. 2) If the US dollar were to rebound this summer, what impact would this have on gold and the bitcoin price? Secondly, a rebound in the dollar would have a direct impact on other asset classes. Gold is influenced by several fundamental factors, notably its inverse correlation with the US dollar and the impact of GOLD ETFs, which are themselves closely linked to the underlying trend in the US dollar. Overall, we believe that if the US dollar were to rebound, gold would lose a good third of its bullish fundamentals. The table below summarizes the factors influencing gold's underlying trend. Crypto-currencies, and Bitcoin in particular, could also be penalized by a stronger dollar and a contraction in global liquidity (M2). The US dollar plays a very direct role in the calculation of M2 global liquidity, and the bitcoin price is highly correlated with the underlying trend in M2 global liquidity. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity. This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term. The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars. This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to the evolution of bitcoin. Consequently, if the US dollar rebounds this summer, expect a bearish impact on BTC from this autumn onwards. 3) If the US dollar rebounds this summer, what are the best Forex strategies to consider? Finally, on a practical level, there are several strategies to consider. On Forex, a dollar rebound scenario calls for monitoring major pairs such as EUR/USD, in order to identify selling entry points if a top is confirmed. But the most direct and unleveraged way to gain exposure to the US dollar (DXY) is through ETFs. Should the US dollar rebound, then exposure to a US dollar (DXY) ETF may be a good strategy. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage, so it allows for better risk management. We also suggest that you keep a close eye on the USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD currency pairs in the event of a summer rebound scenario for the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. We will continue to bring you regular analysis on the US dollar to determine whether or not a major low will emerge this summer. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
Dollar holds steady uptrend despite Trump’s tariff threats. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from both the EU and Mexico, a hike from the 20% previously imposed on the EU in April. He also warned that if no agreement is reached on the Ukraine war within 50 days, countries trading with Russia could face a 100% tariff. Meanwhile, market volatility is being amplified by speculation over Fed Chair Powell’s potential dismissal, as attacks against him intensify from Trump and his allies. Deutsche Bank warned that Powell’s removal could trigger sharp swings in both the dollar and bond markets. DXY has extended its two-week rally after testing the recent low, approaching the 98.00 threshold. The index remains within the ascending channel, indicating the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.25, the index could gain upward momentum toward 98.60. Conversely, if DXY breaks below the support at 97.60, the index may retreat to 97.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 97.81 1st Support: 97.19 1st Resistance: 99.25 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
Dollar looks ready to blast off...we'll see if its a risk assetBasic, strength and pattern analysis. Dollar appears to be completing its Primary A wave of a cyclical correction. Strength has built up, the pattern looks right, and leave it to a large magnitude A wave to complete in a no man's land of Fib support...(ABC extension corrective not pictured). I would expect a run back up to the Intermediate B over the next 6-8 months, and maybe even higher. One more low is possible, but not necessary...neither from a pattern perspective, nor from a strength perspective, although I have a little extension box below in green, and if it is to extend, that is the target.
TVC:DXYLong
by CuzDelux
Weekly DXY OutlookWeekly DXY Outlook - Updated DXY is still bullish and is rising slowly On the weekly chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a critical zone that was last tested in February 2022. While a rebound is not guaranteed, the fact that the DXY has declined nearly 12% over just six months—despite a resilient U.S. economy—suggests the potential for renewed strength in the dollar. I think the index could begin a recovery toward key levels at 100.00, 101.97, and possibly 106.00/ It’s worth noting that the broader bearish trend began with the trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration, which strained relations with several major trading partners. Given that this is a weekly chart, it should be used more as a reference point rather than a trading signal. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by KlejdiCuni
DXY Weekly Update — July 14, 2025⌛ Timeframe: . 📆 Analysis Date: July 14, 2025 . 🎯 Weekly Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral (Potential for retracement or reversal) 🔎 Market Overview: ⬇️ Persistent USD Weakness: DXY has dropped nearly 10% YTD, marking the steepest half-year decline since 1986. 📉 Rate Cut Expectations: Markets are pricing in a potential 75bps rate cut by the Fed in H2 2025, pushing yields and the dollar lower. 📦 Trade War Fears: Renewed tariff risks (targeting EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea) aren't boosting demand for USD — a signal of lost safe-haven appeal. ⚖️ Central Bank Diversification: Global reserve managers are rotating into gold and away from USD, weakening long-term structural demand. 🌀 Sentiment & Risk Appetite: 💸 Liquidity Demand is Soft: DXY is retesting a 4H fair value gap (97.10–97.30), suggesting potential short-term consolidation or correction. 🌍 Risk-On Mood Returns: According to Goldman Sachs, the USD is trading more like a "risk asset" than a haven, aligning with rising equity appetite. 📉 Technical Landscape: 🟠 4H Structure: If DXY breaks below 97.00, next support lies at 96.37, followed by 95.50–96.00. Consolidation expected if price remains within the FVG. 🔻 Key Resistance: 97.70–98.20 zone. A break above this area could change the tone to bullish. 📌 Summary: 🔷 Fundamentals show long-term dollar weakening (rates, trade tension, reserve shifts) 🔷 Sentiment aligns with risk-on appetite and reduced USD demand 🔷 Technicals at critical level; break below 97.00 opens room for correction, break above 97.70 shifts bias bullish . . . . 🟠 Bias: Bearish to Neutral Watch Levels: 97.00 support, 97.70–98.20 resistance ⚠️ Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always apply risk management. ✅ If you like this analysis, don't forget to like 👍, follow 🧠, and share your thoughts below 💬!
TVC:DXYShort
by Apollo_Capital
DXY Previous weeks analysis and July 13 week ahead ideasDXY July 13 July 7 to 11 DELIVERY NOTES I suspected that price would gravitate for higher prices in last Sundays analysis, celebrate on *up closed candle on the weekly, rebalancing SIBI from June 23 week *Price retraced to close on equilibrium on the current range *Monday delivered an expansion *Tuesday retraced to Monday CE of the daily candle *Wednesday consolidation *Thursday retraced to a discount then reversed to take Mondays buy stops *Friday expansion to make the high of the week closing on the CE of the FVG from Wed June 25 July 14 to 18 Ideas Bear bias *Since July 2 Price has been seeking higher prices, further example of trending market *Price reaching equilibrium on the HTF range and buy side taken last week *I suspect that price will retrace for sell side liquidity this week *I anticipate for Price to gravitate towards the EV at 97.430 for the low target this week, possibly the noted equal lows from Monday July 7 *Friday's delivery was a in consolidation pattern *Sundays delivery could gravitate to the noted equal highs and noted FVG *I suspect that Price will expand to seek lower Prices for Mondays delivery *Price expand higher in Sundays delivery, we could see Price retrace Fridays in FVG No News Monday and Friday
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 99.21 1st Support: 96.50 1st Resistance: 100.58 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DXY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025DXY 7/13/2025 DXY 4hour Neutral Idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Ranging Keep in mind, we analyze and follow DXY more so as an indicator. The USD makes up for a large portion of trade so it makes sense to analyze it. Going into this week we can see DXY made an attempt to push higher. Where it closed on Friday is a major zone around 98.000. We’re still majorly bearish on higher time frames so we will keep that in mind throughout this week. As always, we will mark up two potential paths for this week, they are as follows: Bullish Breakout - The two main zones we want to bring out attention to are 98.000 resistance and 97.500 support. We will have to wait until price action leaves this area to spot a high quality setup. Look for a convincing push above 98.000 resistance followed by a retest of 98.000 but as support. Look for a higher low to form with bullish confirmation to long on. Bearish Continuation- Going bearish is still very possible we just need to clear 97.500 support first. Look for a break below 97.500 with a confirmed lower high and convincing bearish setups to short on.
TVC:DXY
by ForexLeague
Tariff Wars Pushing USD HigherThis is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Index The latest headlines tell the story. The tariffs are triggering a slow run to the USD safe haven, but the inflows from investors are moving the needle. The previous week closed strong, with buyers in control. There's a good chance we'll see more of the same this coming week. Look for the strength in USD to continue to be supported by fundamental news, and outperform the other major currencies. Buy USDxxx Sell xxxUSD Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by RT_Money