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DXY US Dollar Internal Level Worth NotingOn an internal basis, the Buck has made it nicely into a potential wave iv high. The Alternate count is there in Purple, but with CPI coming up later this week, we do have some catalysts at hand that would fit nicely with the final wave v leg lower to complete the Wider wave-C and the higher degree wave-2. Obviously, the larger point is we are nearing the time a larger wave-3 much higher comes into picture, with end of year and the first Quarter the obvious turn points.
TVC:DXY
by HendoMacro
Market News Report - 06 October 2024The last were turned this week for AUD, which went from being one of the top-performing currencies to among the worst. Conversely, the dollar gained the upper hand partly because of positive job numbers. Let's see how the coming weeks may turn out for the major currencies in our latest market news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Fed's recent historic 50 basis points (bps) rate cut keeps the bearish bias firmly in place. However, the stronger-than-expected jobs report put a spanner in the works, pricing out a 50 bps cut in the next meeting. However, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets see a 97% chance of this cut in the meeting next month. After weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.617, the DXY made its intention known to head north. We spoke about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Markets anticipate several rate cuts before the year ends, with the Fed keen to harness a soft landing. Also, any data on weakened jobs would be another bearish driver for the dollar. However, the recent upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls figure makes rate cuts less urgent, allowing for potential further USD retracement. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 100% chance (up from 93% last week) of a rate cut at the October 17 meeting. The euro stayed around the 1.1200 area for over two months. However, it broke the range, showing the first of bearish pressure. Still, this market finds itself not far between the major resistance at 1.12757 and key support at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: bearish. After a long period, we have changed the long-term bias to 'bearish' (from 'weak bearish'). The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut in October has become more likely than before. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Governor Bailey even hinted last Thursday that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. This past week's downturn may be the start of a more serious bear move. Nonetheless, the next resistance target is 1.34825. Meanwhile, the nearest key support is at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation. All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. The 140.252 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation, and labour. After failing to break the 0.68711 resistance level several times, the Aussie retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, so it is exposed to economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) also revised cash rate projections lower, which further signals a dovish move. Finally, various core inflation metrics are consistent with stable and low inflation. The markets see a 100% chance (up from 70% last week) of a 0.5% rate cut at Tuesday's meeting. The major resistance level at 0.63696 is proving past strength as we see a noteworthy retracement (similar to its neighbouring Aussie). Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area which it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. In its latest meeting, the central bank's dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for NZD. So, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 63% chance of a 50 bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%. Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness. Speaking of the former, keep an eye on the CAD unemployment rate on Friday (where no change is expected). The CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness. It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut. STIR markets see a 63% chance of the latter happening later this month. Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Expect encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) this past week. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. While we see a clear range, this market is looking to break it (even though it remains a strong bear move). The major support level is closer at (0.83326), while the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 22% chance of a 50 bps cut at the meeting in December. On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion Besides the NZD interest rate decision, this week isn't filled with high-impact economic events, reducing the chance of high volatility. Still, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
USDollar Is In Higher Degree Recovery ModeDollar Index with ticker DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse, but with current sharp bounce out of an ending diagonal on 4h TF, we believe that correction is now in play. Notice thats a very sharp leg up, so its wave a, still first leg of a minimum three-wave a-b-c recovery that can take index back to 61.8% Fib, near 104 which can be very strong resistance for the next sell-off, especially if we consider that this can be wave 2 rally.
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 102.413. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 103.410 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar's Comeback: Can it Last?The US dollar has made a remarkable comeback, shaking off recent weakness and surging higher. This resurgence is driven by stronger-than-expected economic data and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. This fundamental analysis examines the factors fueling the dollar's renewed strength and explores potential trading opportunities, focusing on the upcoming US CPI figures, RBNZ rate decision, and Canadian labor market data. Shift in Sentiment: The dollar's rebound is fueled by a shift in market sentiment. Recent US economic data, particularly labor market figures, have exceeded expectations, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's policy trajectory. Safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions have further supported the greenback. Labor Market Strength: The robust labor market, evidenced by strong job growth and rising wages, has been a key driver of the dollar's resurgence. This has challenged the narrative of a weakening US economy and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. Inflationary Pressures: The strong labor market could contribute to persistent inflationary pressures. The upcoming US CPI data will be crucial in gauging the inflation trajectory and its potential impact on Fed policy. Inflation meeting or exceeding expectations (2.5% headline, 3.8% core) could fuel further dollar strength. Technical Outlook: The dollar has broken out of its recent downtrend, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) clearing key resistance levels. Further gains are likely if this upward momentum continues. Traders will be watching for a sustained break above the 103 level. Upcoming Data Releases US CPI Inflation: Thursday's release will be crucial for the dollar's trajectory. Inflation in line with or above expectations could support further dollar gains. RBNZ Rate Decision: The RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points, potentially weighing on the NZD. The key question is whether the central bank will signal further easing. Canadian Labor Market Data: Friday's release could impact the CAD. A weak report could reinforce the Bank of Canada's dovish stance, while a strong report could provide some support for the loonie.
TVC:DXY
by E8Markets
DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8 We are picking up where we left off last week here on the dollar index, markets are breaking the trading zones we were expecting, but we haven't really seen anything of a correction yet, the least i would expect is to see 101.850 price see a test again. We don't have too much in the way of resistance at the moment, but we can see that price is exhausting where it is, at 102.500 price. We would expect resistance at 103, as this is an area of confluence, built up of whole number, supply and resistance.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
DXY Set for a Sell-Side Liquidity Sweep Following HTF RejectionAnalyzing the recent price action of the DXY, it appears that a retracement to sell-side liquidity is in progress. Price has respected a higher timeframe order block (HTF OB) near 102.798, showing a significant wick into the OB before closing below it—a clear bearish signal. This indicates a likely push towards key sell-side liquidity around 100.215. Traders should watch for bearish continuation setups as liquidity pools are targeted. Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
TVC:DXYShort
by INSIDER_INTEL
DXY: Sell to Buy IdeaWeekly Timeframe: We liquidated the lows, grabbing liquidity to the downside. = our expectation was that the price would push to the upside, to fill in the FVG (IRL), but last week, price pushed to close above the FVG creating an Inverted FVG. = We can now frame an idea with that inversion. The DoL is the Internal Range Liquidity and therefore, we can expect price to continue pushing to the upside. = It's also important to pay attention to where we are. Price is at an inside bar, this is a supply area and we may see price reversing from this point to push us to our inversion FVG or to the Orderblock. = Structure wise, the price is bullish. Swing structure = Bullish Fractal Structure = Bullish We shoiuld look for bullish continuation moves. _____________________________________________________ Daily Swings structure = Bullish Daily Internal Structure = Bullish Daily Fractal Structure = Bulliish We trade the immediate structure= internal structure. We know that price moves in phase: 1. Phase 1 = Break of structure. 2. Phase 2 = Restest of the previous structure. 3. Phase 3 = Continuation of the dominant trend. We are currently in phase 1 of price. We broke internal structure to the upside, which means, we should be expecting a pullback to retest the previous internal demand range. Where is price? At the moment price is at a daily supply level, which is also a weekly Inside Bar. We can expect a pullback from this level to push price into either; - the weekly inverted FVG which is also a daily inverted FVG. - the daily Breaker Block. - The daily extreme orderblock. We know that price is bullish, which means we have no business counter-trading. we define the buying points: 1. Previous Area of Structure. 2. Daily Areas of interest as outlined above. 3. The 61.8% FiB Level We also know that the high probability Areas of interest are those in the discount of our range. This leaves us with the OB and the 2nd ImB to consider. Also, following the logic of price moves from liquidity to liquidity, we know that price liquidated the highs as in the extrenal liquiduity, tapping into a daily supply level, the next area to liquidate normally is the internal range liquidity. It is important to also note that given the many confluences around price level 102, we may see price tapping into that level and flying away. _______________________________________________________ 4hrs Swing Structure = Bullish 4hrs Internal Structure = Bullish 4hrs Fractal Structure = Bullish We trade the immediate structure and the immediate structure is internal structure. We know that price broke structure to the upside and has change trend in the 4hrs from bearish to bullish. We also know that price is due for a pullback, and even though at this moment price is in daily supply block. But we havent hit the 4H OB. However, since we are in 4H supply range, any moment from now we can see price reversing. If we go by the weekly logic, where we want to frame an idea around the inverted FVG, we can see we have a 4H demand block. We should look for those continuation opportunities from this block. Note: we pushed through with a lot of momentum to the upside. In the process, we never created any leg inducement. Therefore, we need to see the market creating liquidity before tapping into the zone. Going into next week, we should frame buy idea in our 4H demand block. If we break through the 4Hrs fractal Protected Low, that should confirm the internal leg pullback. _______________________________________________________ 15 mins Swing Structure = Bullish 15 Mins Internal Structure = Bullish We follow the immediate structure and the immediate structure is the internal structure. Clearly, we have an established bullish orderflow. After the BoS, we expect a pullback. What phase are we in of the internal structure? => We are in Phase 2, where the market is currently retesting the demand range. Our expectation is that this orderflow should hold and that the 15Mins demand block should hold. We should be looking to frame a buy set up to take us to the 15 mins supply. Invalidation criterial: Where are we at? - Price has tapped into a daily supply level. that obviously will hold more power. - If we see price wick below our demand range, that invalidates our demand range, it means that sellers are taing control.
TVC:DXYShort
by DagemFxStudio
Overextended DXY: Preparing for a Bearish Correction This WeekThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of being overextended after last week’s rally, with the weekly ATR (Average True Range) sitting at 1.5 but last week’s price action extending to 2.5 ATR. This suggests the market has moved significantly beyond its usual range, increasing the probability of a short-term correction. While the higher time frames remain bullish, driven by strong economic fundamentals, I’m expecting a pullback in DXY as the market cools off from its extended move. This correction could present opportunities for bearish trades before resuming the broader uptrend.
TVC:DXYShort
by trader9224