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BEARS STILL IN CHARGE ! DXY- USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25 BEARS CRUSHING THE USD! Professional Risk Managers 👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. ✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. ✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. Pairs to look out for - EURUSD - BUY USDCHF - SELL USDJPY - SELL USDCAD - SELL GBPUSD - BUY - Perhaps it's time to accept that a recovery in the DXY is not occurring anytime soon... 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
TVC:DXYShort
by JCFRGNT
DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend or Just Retrace? The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after weeks of relentless selling pressure, but this bounce is now approaching key decision zones just ahead of two critical events: the April PCE report and the next FOMC meeting. With macro data and sentiment diverging, traders should closely monitor how the dollar reacts to upcoming catalysts. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT Core PCE Price Index (Apr) – due Friday – is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected print may reinforce the “higher for longer” stance on rates. FOMC Minutes revealed a growing divide within the committee: some members remain open to further tightening if inflation stalls. Bond market stress is emerging again, as 10Y yields hover near 4.5%. Fiscal concerns and treasury auctions are weighing on investor sentiment. Political noise – particularly from former President Trump’s shifting tariff threats – adds short-term volatility to USD expectations. 🧠 Bottom line: While the dollar has regained ground, macro risks remain asymmetric. A hot PCE may spark short-term demand for USD, but structural credibility risks are still on the table. 📊 TECHNICAL INSIGHT – H1 STRUCTURE Price Channel: DXY broke slightly above a well-respected descending channel that started mid-May. EMA Confluence: EMA 13, 34, and 89 are beginning to align upward but haven’t fully confirmed a bullish trend yet. Key Retest Zone: 99.08 is a critical zone — a Fibonacci 38.2% level of the recent breakout. A hold here may support another test higher. 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS Immediate Support: 99.08 (Fib 38.2% + channel retest) Mid Resistance: 100.02 (round number + previous structure high + near 200 EMA) Major Target Zone: 100.48 (Fib 61.8% + multi-day pivot) 📈 POTENTIAL PRICE SCENARIOS If DXY respects 99.08, a continuation toward 100.02 and even 100.48 is plausible as a technical correction. If DXY fails to hold 99.08, the breakout above the trend channel may turn into a false break, opening the door for a re-test of lower channel support near 98.30. Watch for price behavior around 100.02 — aggressive sellers may re-enter at this level, especially if macro data disappoints. ⚠️ STRATEGIC REMINDER Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Let the market reveal its hand post-PCE. Volatility is expected to spike — be patient and let key levels define directional conviction.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
"DXY Dollar Index" Market Bullish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "DXY Dollar Index" Bank Heist. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk ATR Line Zone. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the Crossing previous high (100.400) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (99.000) Day/swing trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 102.300 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💰💵💸"DXY Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader
US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates 1. Bond Prices vs. Yields Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up). When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears). Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% . 2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar. A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation . Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation . Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily . 3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital. A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% . Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% . Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link . 4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations. The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts . The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" . Summary Table of Relationships Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link) 10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) — Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening) Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying) Key Exceptions and Contexts Term Premium Dynamics: Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) . Economic Growth Differentials: Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them . Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip . Conclusion The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics. #DOLLAR #USD #GOLD #SILVER #COPPER
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
DXY Bearish Setup: Sell from Supply Zone to 99.100 TargetTrend: 📉 Bearish Bias Key Zones & Strategy: 🔶 Supply Zone (Sell Area) 📍 100.584 – 100.906 ⚠️ Price may face selling pressure here 🔵 Entry Point: 🎯 100.584 (bottom of supply zone) 🔴 Stop Loss: ❌ 100.906 (just above resistance) 🟢 Target Point: ✅ 99.100 📉 Aligned with lower support line Technical Indicators: 📏 Descending Channel 🔽 Price moving within parallel downward trend lines 📊 EMA (70) – Orange Line 🔁 Acting as dynamic resistance Trade Setup Summary: 📌 Sell in the Supply Zone 🛑 Stop Loss: 100.906 🎯 Target: 99.100 ⚖️ Good Risk-Reward Ratio Warnings & Tips: ⚡ Watch for Breakouts: If price breaks above 100.906 ➡️ 📈 Bearish idea invalid 📰 Check News Events: FOMC, CPI, or other USD events may cause volatility
TVC:DXY
by Jameshead007
19
USD vying for Monthly Doji after April Support BounceMonthly charts are often underapprecaited by many retail traders. Sure, they're not very actionable as there's only 12 per year but they can do a great job of highlighting trends and broader market themes and, of interest for this scenario, possible turns. As a case in point, back in January the US Dollar had a full head of steam, and there was nary a bear in sight. But that month showed as a doji in the USD and in February, the tariff theme started to take over. It was a mild pullback that month but collectively, after two months of bulls stalling, many were ready to pull the plug and that's what showed in March and continued through April as the January doji led into a stern sell-off and fresh multi-year lows. In April, the USD was hit hard by a combination of tariff drama and trend continuation and a major spot of support eventually came into play around Easter Monday, taken from a trendline projection as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008-2022 major move. The bounce wasn't automatic, as there was a slow grind of higher-highs and higher-lows that got another boost around the FOMC rate decision earlier in May. That rally ran all the way until a major spot of resistance came into play at 102, at which sellers reacted. But at this point they've been stalled at another major spot on the chart of 98.98, which is helping to set a higher-low. And from the monthly chart, the USD is currently showing a doji on the monthly bar for May, which sets the table for a possible turn as we trade into the summer months. Key for this coming to fruition will be continued recovery in USD/JPY, which has had a major impact in the USD of late. And if we do see that theme of USD-strength continue, I still favor EUR/USD as a major pair of interest for that theme. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.21 1st Support: 98.92 1st Resistance: 101.09 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
1