US Dollar Index Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish trend pattern followed by a pullback
Until the two strong resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here.
USDINDEX trade ideas
DXY short: Is USD strength coming to an end?In this chart, I plotted the potential Elliott Wave counts. But I need to point out the few things that I don't like about this count first:
1. Wave 1 down seemed too short to be supporting such a huge triple combination correction.
2. Wave 1 end is not the lowest point. The lowest point being end of first X wave (I can't find a way to force a 5-wave counts such that first wave ends on the first X wave simply because W-X is clearly a 3-wave. The best I can do is to have a 5-waves down that ends at first green a but that makes the subsequent corrective structure ugly.)
In any case, this is now a low risk short. Stop above recent high. The next potential short is where the upper trendline is.
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Jan 6
Execution analysis
Price is delivering to a premium on the M, W, Daily charts.
Yesterday Price delivered from a premium to discount gravitating to the NWOG and noted equal lows, also creating more equal lows. Price then bull rallied to rebalance the H FVG for the finish.
Great delivery.
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Jan 8
Price is delivering to a premium on the M, W, Daily charts.
2 back to back large range days of Price delivery. I suspect that could consolidate during Asia possible London with the onset of 3 red folder scheduled in NY session
that said I suspect that price will come down to the H FVG at the 50% possibly seek the second H FVG at the .79. Price could also be gravitating to the NWOG and seek equal lows noted.
Cool to see Price consolidate around the event horizon and I will be watching for reactions around it as well.
See how Asia plays out and go from there.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Rising Channel IntactChart Analysis:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel (green-shaded area), signaling sustained bullish momentum.
1️⃣ Ascending Channel:
The DXY is consolidating near the channel's midline, with the upper boundary around 110.00 acting as a potential resistance area.
A breakout above the channel's upper boundary would signal continued bullish momentum, while a retracement to the lower boundary around 106.00 could provide buying opportunities.
2️⃣ Key Support Levels:
The 50-day SMA (blue line) at 106.50 is providing dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The 200-day SMA (red line) at 104.50 reinforces long-term support.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but shy of overbought levels.
MACD: Momentum remains positive, with the MACD line above the signal line, supporting the bullish bias.
What to Watch:
Monitor the channel's upper boundary for potential resistance or breakout opportunities.
Watch for pullbacks towards the 50-day SMA and lower trendline for potential support levels.
RSI and MACD trends will be key in confirming momentum strength or weakness.
The DXY remains firmly within its bullish structure, with the ascending channel and moving averages providing a clear technical framework for traders to follow.
-MW
DXY: Ascending Triangle topping soon. Excellent sell opportunityThe U.S. Dollar Index is on a steady bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.447, MACD = 0.640, ADX = 33.835) as with the exception of November's last week, it has been rising nonstop since September 30th 2024. The price is near the HH Zone of the Ascending Triangle, the 1W RSI has double topped and we are, or getting close to, the new long term top. Technically the 1W RSI is already similar to the October 9th 2023 top. The risk now is lower in going short. Aim for the 1W MA200 (TP = 103.000), which was the level that offered the late September support.
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DXYUSD Bearish SignalDXY had experienced an unnatural pump against risk and competition currencies, elation that will no doubt come to an abrupt end soon as my charts do not lie. What would typically be viewed as a large bull flay is indeed a failed auction. This signifies a major upcoming crash of the USDX as inflation has been out of control and the fed has failed to control it. Spending is up and while unemployment remains high the job market and industry remains strong as US GDP outputs remain very high. This could reverse in the summer but at this time price action is toppish and I call a negative reversal to the downside targeting sub $100 ranges.
DYX Monthly vs Crypto & Stocks: The Most Bullish Ever!The DXY is at its most bullish since June 2021. Here we can see it bouncing strongly from EMA55 as support.
We looked at the DXY and how it is related to Bitcoin ( see here ).
Now we want to consider the DXY on its own.
➖ How far up can the DXY go and for how long?
To start, we can see that the last time the DXY went bullish it closed green for four consecutive months. This would be the first green month, so we have another three of potential bullish action.
The bounce in July 2023 also produced four months of growth. Now, the action in the last bounce and back in 2023 were part of a consolidation pattern, what we are seeing now is the start of a bullish wave.
➢ First, within several months, or weeks, the DXY is set to hit 109. Long-term, it can go higher and hit a new All-Time High.
➢ The first long-term resistance will be around 114, which is the September 2022 peak. 111.1 would be an intermediate target.
➢ The new ATH can settle around 124/5. The last ATH was hit around 121.
This is all based on the long-term.
This is the monthly timeframe.
The DXY going bullish can have a very strong negative effect on the stock market and even Cryptocurrency but this is only initially, after several months of the DXY being strongly bullish, the Cryptocurrency market can recover and do great. I don't know about the stock market, it can be different but Crypto will be fine.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
it is now looking like a top in the making PEPPERSTONE:USDX the whole euphoria with donald trump is now giving away its price and it is looking like we should have a top here because there is a clear breakout failure so it may decline or it can rest for some time now that looks more likely now rather than carrying the bull trend
DXY Is Going Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 108.155.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 107.189 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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DeGRAM | DXY back into the ascending channelThe DXY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price has reached the expansion level.
We expect a local correction in the channel for further strengthening of the dollar.
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DXY -could the dollar be dropping, what does that mean others?If we see the dollar break this level we could see higher prices with other instruments such as the metals and other cryptos.
Lets watch and see what happens.
DXY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2024 - BEARISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master.
Wave B-grey has just completed a corrective wave labeled ((a))((b))((c))-navy and wave ((c))-navy has completed a full five-waves in a Zigzag (5-3-5) pattern, so wave C-grey could be back to push lower. But it is too early to conclude such a major bearish trend.
On the other hand, the shorter-term outlook suggests we may head down to the 105.420 area, while price must remain below 109.533 to maintain this view.
Bullish forecast on DXYDaily is showing bullishness and possible internal range liquidity to external range liquidity move.
Same with 4h
Levels discussed on livestream 6th Jan 20256th January 2025
DXY: Consolidating along 108.90, could test 108.50 (61.8%) before trading higher again to 109 round number (below 108.50 could test bottom of channel)
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5575 SL 30 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6265 SL 30 TP 60
GBPUSD: Wait for reaction at 1.25 round number resistance level
EURUSD: Look for rejection of 1.04, Sell 1.0315 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Sell 157.65 SL 50 TP 150
EURJPY: Buy 163.55 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Sell 196.40 SL 50 TP 150
USDCHF: Look for reaction at bottom of channel 0.9060 or support level 0.9020
USDCAD: Ranging between 1.4335 and 1.4465
XAUUSD: Break 2624 to trade down to 2610 (bullish trendline)
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
Jan 7
Price is delivering to a premium on the M, W, Daily charts.
Fantastic price delivery yesterday. Price took out FVG, equal lows and almost my longer term sell stops. Price trended to the previous NWOG acting like a prefect magnet.
Price delivering in Premium. Rebalancing a H FVG. Its likely that price will complete rebalancing the FVG and rally to the first equal highs, could reach for the second one.
XAUUSD Analysis - 1/6/2025I am still bearish on Gold. We see that Gold rejected a 4H FVG this morning during NY Session that produced a major drop. With this price action, I have a feeling that Gold wants to drop lower. NFP is this Friday so will be cautious and flexible to changing my bias if I see a structure shift on the higher timeframe.
US DOLLAR INDEX In my view, the US dollar index finish the motive wave and will start down trend. the target for sell position is 106.15.
DXY Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY made a retest of
The horizontal support
Of 107.921 and we are
Already seeing a bullish
Rebound so we will be
Expecting a further move up
Buy!
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DXY Major reversal Good day traders and investors,
Well, it looks like the dollar has had a major reversal just as expected and right on time. I have been expecting for a couple months now that something big is to be expected by mid September to the latest mid October as the cycle pertains too. The DXY hit the .5 on the fib which is generally a big reversal area, and boy did it reject. It looks like gravestone doji has formed as well. This is stock and crypto positive. What was the news at same time? Surprise!!! More war, now with Israel the "holy Land"
In the seeks to follow look for the dollar to collapse as assets rise.
check the trendIt is expected that the upward trend will continue according to the specified path.
If the support trend line is broken, a continuation of the correction or downtrend is possible
Pattern suggests tough sledding for USDHere's a look at the strength of the U.S. Dollar over the last 3+ decades.
I'm not here to talk about politics, nor am I interested in discussing the effects of economic policy on the value of the U.S. Dollar. Frankly, I don't really care. What I am interested in are patterns, and I think this one is interesting enough to share.
Sure, this time around could be different, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Dxy The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000DXY trades with negative bias for the second straight day, though the downside seems limited. The Fed’s hawkish shift remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and favors the USD bulls. Geopolitical risks and trade war fears might contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven buck.
