DOLLAR INDEX - Bearish Move Hello Traders !
The Dollar Index failed to create a new higher high !
Currently, The last higher low is broken (Change of character).
So, I expect a bearish move📉
_________________
TARGET: 103.510🎯
USDINDEX trade ideas
Markets Brace for US Presidential Election and the FedMarket watchers and investors are preparing for one of the most significant weeks of the year: the United States (US) presidential election takes place tomorrow, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Both events could significantly impact global markets, potentially influencing currencies, equities, bonds, and commodities.
Who Will Be the Next President of the World’s Largest Economy?
Over the past few months, Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, have been running neck-and-neck in both national polls and state surveys, making it clear that both candidates have about an even chance of winning tomorrow’s election.
The presidency will ultimately be decided by the Electoral College outcome, which will be based on the election results in individual states. Each state’s number of electors is proportional to its population size. There are 535 electors for the 50 states and 3 for the District of Columbia; that is a total of 538 electors.
A candidate must gain a majority of the electoral votes – 270 or more – to win the presidency and for their running mate to become the vice president. If no candidate wins 270 electoral votes, a contingent election occurs: the House of Representatives will elect the president, and the Senate will be tasked with electing the vice president. This makes it possible that the House elects a president from the majority’s preferred party while the Senate chooses a vice president from the other.
It should be noted that a candidate may win the popular vote across the country but lose the Electoral College vote. This has happened five times in the past, with the most recent being in 2016 when Trump won the presidency despite trailing behind Hilary Clinton by nearly three million votes nationwide.
The 5 November election will also determine which party controls Congress; there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate up for grabs. Currently, Republicans hold a majority in the House, while Democrats control the Senate – albeit both by slim margins. Polls suggest the control of each chamber could switch this election round.
With less than 24 hours to go for the election and more than 77.6 million votes already cast, ABC News/FiveThirtyEight’s latest polls indicate that Harris holds a marginal lead over Trump with 47.9% vs 47.0%.
Battleground States Set to Determine the Election Result
The seven battle states have a total of 93 electoral votes – with polls indicating razor-thin margins. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, Harris is ahead by three percentage points in Nevada (49% vs 46%), two points in North Carolina and Wisconsin (48% vs 46% and 49% vs 47%, respectively), and one percentage point in Georgia (48% vs 47%). Trump maintains his advantage in Arizona, leading by four percentage points (49% vs 45%).
Interestingly, the polls show that the two candidates are locked in close races in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with results in all seven states within the margin of error – meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead.
Election Results and Market Impact
Exit polls are expected to begin rolling in at approximately 5:00 pm Eastern Time (ET). While these results do not show ‘the full picture’, they can provide early insights and volatility may increase as a result. However, market participants are likely to exercise caution, and rightly so. Results will be adjusted numerous times throughout the evening as more votes are counted.
The reporting of results from major swing states will be a crucial period for traders. The process starts with the polls closing in Georgia at 7:00 pm ET and concludes with the results from Nevada at around 10:00 pm ET. You can expect volatility to surge once all the key states’ results are reported at about 11:00 pm ET.
Early AM (ET) on 6 November, investors will have more clarity on a potential election winner. While a winner is usually clear at this point, if there is uncertainty, or talks of recounting, markets may consolidate as this could result in legal action from both sides. It is also important to acknowledge that although a winner is generally clear on election day, there are instances when the outcome may not be determined for several hours, days, or even weeks.
A clean sweep for Trump is expected to boost demand for the US dollar (USD) and US equities, as well as a rise in US Treasury yields in response to fiscal stimulus. Trump’s pro-growth and domestic policies, and potential for tariffs, could lead to demand for stocks in the financial and energy sectors. Additionally, major cryptocurrencies could catch a bid amid Trump’s ‘plans’ to make the US the ‘Crypto Capital’ of the planet.
A clean sweep for Harris is likely to weigh on the USD and US Treasury yields amid less tax cuts and increased spending. Major US equity indices could take a hit on a Harris victory, though the reaction is likely to be mixed.
Fed Poised to Cut by 25 Basis Points
In addition to the US elections, the Fed will claim a portion of the attention this week, scheduled to make the airwaves at 7:00 pm GMT on Thursday. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis point (bp) reduction, a move that would bring the target for the funds rate to 4.50-4.75%. The elections are unlikely to sway this decision. In fact, anything other than a cut – particularly following the bumper 50 bp reduction at September’s meeting, the Fed’s latest dot-plot suggesting 50bps of additional easing this year, and robust economic data – would catch the markets off guard and may prompt investors to question whether the Fed made a mistake going for ‘50’ in September. Investors are also expecting another possible 25bp cut at December’s meeting (20 bps of cuts currently priced in).
The US economy remains on solid footing, with the Fed still focussed on achieving a soft-landing scenario.
Inflation eased for a sixth consecutive month in September, cooling to 2.4% from 2.5% in August – its lowest level since early 2021 – while core inflation increased to 3.3% in September from 3.2% in August.
In terms of payrolls, job growth recently ground to a halt, adding a paltry 12,000 jobs to the economy in October (market consensus: 113,000). While this was a surprise, the lower-than-expected print was influenced by weather and strikes, therefore, the Fed are likely to overlook this print and emphasise that attention needs to be on longer-term trends. Unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%, and wage growth accelerated, which is concerning, with both month-on-month and year-on-year measures showing increases.
The latest figures also show that Q3 24 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by an annualised rate of 2.8% (according to the first estimate), defying analyst expectations of 3.1% and the 3.0% reading in Q2. One of the main drivers behind the economy’s resilience was robust consumer spending (up 3.7%).
Dollar Index on the Ropes
Realistically, longer-term chart studies on the monthly timeframe reveal that the USD has largely been directionless since the beginning of 2023, fluctuating between 100.82 and 107.35. Note that the lower edge of the said range is joined by the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 100.44.
However, while the greenback is trading mid-range on the monthly timeframe, price action on the daily timeframe recently crossed beneath its 200-day SMA at 103.83 after shaking hands with resistance at 104.55 in late October. Technically, assuming a daily close beneath the noted SMA, further underperformance could be seen in the USD towards support at 102.78.
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DXY - Further Upside Expected
Dollar remains strong and supported by the Fib levels and Trendline. Despite promising news and expected FED rate cuts, it still remains Bullish due to Trump coming in power and end of year profit taking.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals on 5/15M at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
DXY Update and Levelsafter good impulse move to the upside there is certainty of price going into pullback mode
because
. price recently broken the trend line which was from weekly side so the next liquidity zone is supply from monthly which is 1% away and on other hand price can try to retest the fvg which nearby 0.5% below the current price (105.998) or the round figure 105 can act as support
my take - before going to 107 zone price should retrace and get some liquidity from fvg
DXY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 105.886.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 104.561 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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dxyThis is my opinion with technical analysis
Please respect the following rules:
1- Risk management .
2. Have your own strategy
GET READY XXXUSDHey traders,
Now we need to see a break of previous high but before then we need to see a push up a little to take out the high.
Note for all XXXUSD: we need to see a rally up after we get a break of Dxy previous high
‼️ IF YOU WANT TO SEE MY ANALYSIS ON XXXUSD COMMENT BELOW
Thanks for reading
Stay safe and peace out ✅
DeGRAM | DXY growth in the channelDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
Having reached the lower boundary of the channel, the chart has formed a reversal harmonic pattern.
The price has reached the 62% retracement level.
We expect the growth to continue after retesting and consolidating above the current resistance.
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Dollar Milkshake theoryRegardless of how much fiat is printed by the FED, the US dollar will still strengthen against a basket of fiat. Value will flow towards the fiat with the smallest delta between interest rates and inflation - and that’s the US. The dollar will truly be king, and BRICKS is not new, and the “ice 9” scenario didn’t happen. Trump will engineer a soft landing and pay off debt with national resources in a clean way. Business will return, and the Russian Ruble and the US dollar will vie for dominance, while China stays pegged. Good day to you sirs and madams!
DXYDollar index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDSEK
USDNOK
USDMXN
USDRUB
USDCNY
The U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The USDX was established by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 after the dissolution of the Bretton Woods Agreement.
#dxy #elliottwave short sell setup wave c 13Nov24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 100.68 - 99.89. If the price cannot break through the 99.89 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
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Dollar's Winning Streak: Will CPI Data Fuel the Fire?The US dollar is on a tear, caused by "Trump trade" optimism and robust economic data. But will this bullish momentum persist? We analyze the key drivers behind the dollar's strength and explore the potential impact of upcoming economic events.
The "Trump Trade":
The US dollar's recent surge is intricately linked to the market's anticipation of President Trump's economic agenda. Investors are betting on tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and potential tariffs to stimulate growth and potentially fuel inflation. This expectation has triggered a wave of capital inflows into the US, driving up demand for the dollar.
US Economic Resilience:
Beyond the "Trump trade," the dollar's strength is underpinned by the resilience of the US economy. The labor market remains robust, with low unemployment and steady wage growth. Consumer confidence is also high, supporting continued spending and reinforcing expectations of persistent inflation. This combination of factors creates a favorable environment for the dollar, attracting investors seeking higher yields and a safe haven in an uncertain global landscape.
Inflation Data Ahead:
While the dollar's outlook appears bright, the upcoming US CPI inflation data could be a game-changer. A strong inflation reading would validate the market's expectations and likely encurage the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance, potentially leading to higher interest rates for longer. This scenario would further solidify the dollar's dominance.
Conversely, if inflation disappoints, it could cast doubt on the need for aggressive monetary policy, potentially undermining the dollar's momentum. Traders will be closely scrutinizing the CPI figures for clues about the Fed's policy trajectory and the dollar's future direction.
Technical and Fundamental Outlook for Major Pairs:
EUR/USD: The euro is struggling against the surging dollar, hampered by a dovish ECB and a bearish technical picture. A head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart points to further downside, with key support levels at 1.07 and 1.0660. A break below these levels could open the door to 1.0500.
GBP/USD: The pound is also facing headwinds from a strong dollar and concerns about the UK economy after the recent BoE rate cut. Technically, GBP/USD is in a downtrend, with support at 1.2850. A break below could target 1.2700, while a weaker dollar (if CPI disappoints) might lift the pair back to 1.30.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is caught between a strengthening dollar and worries about China's slowdown. It's currently holding above crucial support at 1.6550. Keep an eye on Aussie jobs data and US-China trade developments for clues about its next move.
NZD/USD: The Kiwi is under pressure from RBNZ rate cuts and broad dollar strength. A bearish technical pattern suggests further downside potential, with the 0.5900 level as a key target.
This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 104.427.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 105.268 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Bullish momentum persists on DXYTechnical Perspective:
DXY extended its rally within the ascending channel, following a breakout of the descending trend line. The price remains in an uptrend with higher swing points seen. A further rise toward the 106.50 resistance and ascending channel's upper bound might occur if DXY sustains its bullish momentum. Conversely, a retracement could prompt a retest of the 105.20 trendline breakout zone and support. Ichimoku Cloud is showing signs of bullish pressure as well.
Fundamental Perspective:
Traders are betting on a continued selloff in US Treasury bonds, anticipating that Donald Trump's policies will drive inflation and keep interest rates high, boosting the dollar's appeal. The open interest in two-year Treasury futures has surged as investors position for rising yields ahead of US key inflation data.
Elsewhere, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead Trump’s new initiative to cut government waste and reduce federal spending, aiming for 2 trillion USD in savings. The effort will focus on dismantling bureaucracy and reforming federal agencies.
Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe,
Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
DXY potential breakout Exactly reaching my target at 105.5, now could retrace and check back at 104.55 then further upside is expected.
if the falling trendline is broken and confirmed above this means the dollar has major upside potential which could signal the end of the stock market bull run and a major correction in GOLD
DXYWe might have to amend my DXY strength bias as it was flawed because I did not take into account FOMC tonight. With expected rate cuts of 25 bips we might observe USD weaken. With DXY already near R1, we might observe USD weak today. two conflicting events happening simultaneously.
1. expected results of Trump's future policy
vs
2. 92% chance of a 25 bips rate cut tonight.
that will be interesting to watch how this plays out in coming weeks.
DXY is bullishDXY is temporarily bullish and wants to test its upper trendline once again
upon testing trendline DXY will decide which way to go according to its pattern
pls follow to see the result
Dollar can still go up to 105 levels, before it ...makes any significant pullback. US elections will have very volatile effect on USD and all currencies and actually all the markets. Its great opportunity to earn but also to loose money, be careful. I will be taking trades only if it will A++ setups.
You are very welcome to comment with your thoughts, share your charts or questions about COT or how I came to this setup. Just comment below, I like any constructive discussion.
If we get the confirmation, I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart.
Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
DXY bulls are enjoying the moment. But for how long?Yes, the positivity is coming in for DXY bulls, but is it just an illusion? Stick around and let's take a quick look.
TVC:DXY
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DXY bias new outlooklast 10 candle does not have any liquidity which seems that price is likely to bounce from 1st poi
but the candle from nov5 and nov6 will be important as it is bearish marbozu with nov6 candle could create bearish fvg that can give price another rejection zone to push the price to test poi 2
based on drawn poi
poi 1 = 103.220
and poi 2 = 102.630
we need see if price is rejected from this zone followed by dotted line which represents external liquidity to grab
and finally we have orange zone that is weekly bearish fvg once that is tested will follow with new idea
