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September Monthly Trade Plan: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Market Overview: As we enter September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is positioned at a critical juncture. After experiencing a significant decline throughout the summer, the index found support in the discount zone around 100.000 to 102.000. This zone has historically provided a strong base for potential rebounds, but the broader bearish trend remains a key factor to consider. This monthly trade plan outlines key scenarios, levels, and strategies to watch for in September. Key Levels to Watch: Support Zone (100.000 - 102.000): This zone acted as a strong support in August, leading to a minor bullish bounce. This level remains critical; a break below could signal continued bearish momentum, while a sustained hold could lead to a broader retracement. Equilibrium Level (103.500): Serving as the midpoint, this level is likely to act as resistance if the DXY continues to recover. A breakout above this level could indicate a stronger bullish retracement, while failure to break above could see a resumption of the downtrend. Resistance Zone (106.000 - 106.500): This area is marked as a premium zone, where significant selling pressure could re-emerge. It’s a key level to target for those looking to capitalize on a potential short-term bullish retracement. Monthly Pivot Level (~104.000): This pivot is crucial for identifying potential market bias. A monthly close above or below this level could set the tone for the remainder of the month. Trade Scenarios for September: 1. Bullish Retracement Scenario: If the DXY continues its recovery from the discount zone and breaks above the equilibrium level: Entry Strategy: Enter a long position on a daily close above 103.500, confirming a bullish breakout. Stop Loss: Set the stop loss below the recent low around 101.000 to protect against a sudden reversal. Take Profit Targets: TP1: 104.500 (near the monthly pivot). TP2: 106.000 - 106.500 (premium zone and strong resistance area). Trade Management: Move stop loss to breakeven after reaching TP1. Trail the stop to protect profits as the price approaches the 106.000 level. 2. Bearish Continuation Scenario: If the DXY fails to break above the equilibrium level or faces strong resistance at the monthly pivot: Entry Strategy: Enter a short position on a bearish rejection at 103.500 or a daily close below 102.500. Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above the recent high around 104.500 to avoid being stopped out by a false breakout. Take Profit Targets: TP1: 101.500 (recent support). TP2: 100.000 - 99.500 (lower boundary of the discount zone). Trade Management: Consider taking partial profits at TP1 and move the stop loss to breakeven. If the bearish momentum continues, let the trade ride towards the lower support zone. 3. Range-Bound Scenario: If the DXY remains range-bound between 102.000 and 104.000: Entry Strategy: Buy near the lower boundary around 102.000 and sell near the upper boundary around 104.000. Stop Loss: For long positions, place the stop below 101.000. For short positions, place the stop above 104.500. Take Profit Targets: For Longs: Target 103.500 - 104.000. For Shorts: Target 102.500 - 102.000. Trade Management: Range trading requires quick decision-making. Be prepared to exit if the price breaks out of the range. Risk Management: Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade to manage potential losses. Economic Calendar: Keep an eye on key economic releases, such as U.S. employment data, inflation reports, and any major Federal Reserve announcements, as these can significantly impact the DXY. Conclusion: September could be a pivotal month for the U.S. Dollar Index as it tests key levels that may determine the next major move. Whether you’re trading the potential for a bullish retracement, a continuation of the bearish trend, or a range-bound market, it’s crucial to remain disciplined and follow your plan. Keep monitoring the key levels outlined above and adjust your strategy as new market information becomes available. Happy trading, and may September bring you profitable opportunities!
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which accts as a pullback support. Pivot: 103.33 1st Support: 102.68 1st Resistance: 103.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Market News Report - 13 October 2024The US dollar was buoyant this week against many currencies, continuing the same trend from the previous week. CHF was a close second, while the Japanese yen found itself among the weakest currencies. Let's dive into what we should expect for each major forex market in our latest fundamental report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. Despite a recent 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, the Fed may not need to cut rates as aggressively going forward. This is partly due to positive job numbers and earnings data that exceeded expectations. Still, the central bank has signalled the potential for two 25 bps drops by the end of this year. Meanwhile, a 50 bps cut has pretty much been priced out, with STIR (short-term interest rate) markets seeing a 14% chance of a hold next month. After weeks of ranging around the key support area at 100.157, the DXY made its intention known to head north. We spoke about a potential technically-driven retracement (despite the bearish fundamentals). Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348, which will remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The latest strong NFP report has raised expectations for a 25 bps rate cut (instead of 50 bps), which is giving USD a boost in the near term. So, there is no extreme dovish pricing anymore. While the bearish bias remains, the dollar may gain amid a broad pullback. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: bearish. As usual, the STIR (short-term interest markets) were predictably accurate as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate a few weeks ago. While 'being mum' about forward guidance, they revised core inflation projections higher. Also, the past week saw weaker economic data across various European nations. Finally, short-term interest rate (STIR) markets have indicated a 92% chance of a rate cut at the October 17 meeting. The euro has finally made its bearish intention known on the charts after spending weeks near the resistance at 1.12757. Meanwhile, this market isn't too far away from the key support at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: bearish. The ECB has yet to commit to a specific future path with the interest rate for some time. Due to lingering concerns over services inflation, a rate cut has become more likely than before and will be a key driver soon. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) kept the interest rate steady in its recent meeting. Still, the language indicates that they need to be “restrictive for sufficiently long.” Also, the central bank's higher-ups stressed "a gradual need" to cut rates. As with the ECB, the central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. So, it makes more sense to be dovish than hawkish. Not long ago, Governor Bailey hinted that "aggressive rate cuts" were possible if inflation went lower. This week, watch out for several key economic releases for GBP, such as the YoY inflation rate and unemployment rate. We mentioned that the past week's downturn may be the start of a more serious bear move. So far, that's what the pound is experiencing. The next resistance target is 1.34825, while the nearest key support is at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Sequential rate cuts by the BoE may soon be a reality. Also, expect any weak CPI, labour, and GDP data to back up the bearish bias. However, the central bank hopes for lower service inflation, which may provide relief. Another interesting point is the latest CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report, showing that GBP longs have been stretched to the upside. So, bullishness should be limited at some point. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to hike the interest rate. STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. ​​Governor Ueda of the BoJ noted that despite domestic economic recovery, recent exchange rate movements have reduced the upside risk of inflation (which has been on an upward trajectory). All of this backs up the potential for a rate hold or hike. Keep an eye on the latest YoY inflation for JPY this Friday. The 140.252 support area is proving quite strong, boosting the yen since mid-September. Still, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. Lower US Treasury yields are one potential bullish catalyst for the yen (the opposite is true). Inflation pressures and wage growth would also provide upward momentum. We should also consider that the dovish tendencies of other major central banks and worsening US macro conditions are JPY-positive Still, as a slight downer, near-term inflation risks subsiding (according to the BoJ) reduce the urgency for a rate hiking cycle. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the interest rate unchanged during the Sept. 25 meeting. They further stated that they "did not explicitly consider rate hikes" for the future, which is a marginally dovish statement. The Aussie remains sensitive to China’s recent economic woes, especially with declining iron ore prices from the country’s steelmakers. As always, it depends on drops or rises in economic data like GDP, inflation, and labour. After failing to break the 0.69426 resistance level several times, the Aussie retraced noticeably from this area. Still, this market is bullish and far from the major support level at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA has certainly changed their tune from hawkish to slightly hawkish/dovish. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, especially with core inflation as the RBA's key focus area. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical, meaning exposure to the economies of other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZD) cut its interest rate by 50 bps last Wednesday and sees further easing ahead. This affirms another cut next month of potentially the same magnitude. Furthermore, the central bank is confident that inflation will remain in the target zone, adding more impetus to the bearish bias. Due to the recent rate cut, the Kiwi has been on a downward spiral, proving the strength of the major resistance level at 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498. Long-term outlook: bearish. The central bank's latest dovish stance (where it cut the interest rate) firmly puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' They also revised the OCR rates lower and signaled steady winnings in the inflation battle. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently dropped the interest rate to 4.25%, as anticipated by the markets for some time. Further cuts in the next few meetings are on the cards (with a 37% chance of a 50 bps cut next month), with the long-term target being 3%. Unemployment, weak economic growth, and mortgage stress are the key drivers for this dovishness. Watch out for the new YoY inflation rate for the Canadian dollar on Tuesday. While the short-term fundamental biases of USD and CAD are bearish, CAD is weaker on the charts. USD/CAD is making a steady uptick towards the key resistance at 1.39468, while the key support lies down at 1.33586. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point. Governor Macklem himself stated a while ago that it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. Any big misses in the upcoming data for GBP, inflation, and GDP will probably boost the chance of a rate cut. STIR markets see a 63% chance of the latter happening later this month. Also, mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. Expect encouraging oil prices and general economic data improvement to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets were, as usual, correct in their 43% chance of a 25bps rate cut (from 1.25% to 1%) recently. In the Sept. 26 meeting, the Swiss National (SNB) indicated its preparedness to intervene in the FX market and further rate cuts in the coming quarters. The central bank's new Chair (Schlegel) said they "cannot rule out negative rates." Finally, the September CPI came in weak at 0.8%, against the expected year-on-year 1.1%. Still, the Swiss franc can strengthen during geopolitical tensions, such as a worsening Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has just broken out of the range (but only just) discussed in our last report. While remaining largely bearish, this market could return closer to the major support level at 0.83326 or climb its way to the higher major resistance level at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The bearish sentiment remains after the last SNB meeting, while inflation is being tamed with lower revisions. We should also remember that the SNB's intervention prevents the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The new chairman is more keen to cut rates than his predecessor, Jordan. STIR markets are currently pricing a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut at the December meeting. On the flip side, 'safe haven flows' and geopolitical risks can be positively supportive for the currency. As with other central banks, inflation is a crucial metric in the SNB's policy rates. Conclusion In summary: -There are plenty of new inflation rate announcements to diarise this week. -The euro's interest rate decision is the most anticipated news event heading into the new week. - All our fundamental outlooks for each currency remain unchanged except for a higher bearish inclination for NZD. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. This report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
DXY - Reaching potential turning pointThe DXY has swung up from it's lows with a classic type 1 reaction and a dragon pattern at a key support that has held for the past two years. We have a bearish bias towards the DXY and here is why: - Distribution pattern for over a year. - Lower Highs and Lower Lows. - General US Dollar Policy. - Current bullish state of stock and crypto markets implying a weakening dollar. So now in terms of the current chart and understanding where it could turn. For the past two years we have an impeccable record against the DXY, telling where it could and has bottomed or where it could and has topped. Now, traditional technical analysis suggests a less convincing but still valuable bearish outlook on it. Here it is: - Minor resistance just above. - Completing the bearish 5-0 of this harmonic (We know XB is short of the required 0.786, we're choosing to value it the same). - Straight reaction to T1 from the harmonic, no sign of accumulation bottom or deep retracement to capture value. Usually signifies an impulse move before at least a retracement to backtest the pcz and put in a higher/ same low. - Strong Bearish Divergence on all the oscillators. With these factors we are looking for the DXY to turn soon, the bearish 5-0 target would be a great point to do so but it could yet push higher. The overall purpose of this post is to showcase that the DXY is still bearish although recent strength. The market is still bullish and could become even more so in the coming weeks/months.
TVC:DXYShort
by SynergyTradingSetups
US DOLLAR what are you doing my G!Hi everyone! I personally think that TVC:DXY is overextended, because I believe in statical standard deviations + time, there is sound math behind it. However also the market is so hard because it can do whatever it wants sometimes, like now... lol. And Me personally I have been looking for a pullback, a small one at least, and since the markets are really moved by the huge money, I have a feeling there will be a fast and sharp pullback down, and if this is truly a bullish reversal, it will hold around the break area. And MAYBE, I want to say like 50-60% chance, it was continue rising from there, but we are not god, so we need to see what the next days will tell. Thank you.
TVC:DXYShort
by ChameleonInvestments
#DXY following days analysisHere’s what we could expect from DXY in the coming days: This extended bullish move is likely wave A of an ABC corrective structure to complete wave 4. Given the clear bearish divergence between price and the oscillator, we are likely nearing the top of wave A. From here, we could see a bearish move, which would be corrective in nature and related to the higher degree trend. However, this phase might be tricky for short-term traders as it could be choppy and manipulative. Following this, we can expect another bullish leg to complete wave C of the ABC pattern. Let’s see how DXY develops in the coming days.
TVC:DXY
by mohemati
1
DXY Rebounding on the 1M MA50. But for how long?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is on a strong green 1M candle, already halfway through the month of October, as it is rebounding after making an exact test of the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term Support. On this chart we can see the DXY's multi-year price action. Even though it was on a heavy downtrend since the February 1985 High, it managed to break above it in January 2015 and sustain a strong Channel Up, coming off the March 2008 bottom of the disastrous Housing Crisis. Within this strong Channel Up, we see a repeated pattern as long as Bullish and Bearish Legs are concerned. As you can see, the bottoms have been formed significantly below the 1M MA50, so this indicates that it is not time to buy yet. If anything, a controlled short is justified and as we get closer to the bottom of the Channel Up, start buying on a multi-year basis (as long as the 1M MA200 (orang trend-line) holds). Based on the 1M RSI, where the similarities with the previous Leg are more obvious, we should be around levels similar to October 2017, so starting next month or December, we should start resuming the downtrend and a 'modest' level to target is 97.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
DXY Technical Analysis – Week of October 14-18, 2024Overview: The Dollar Index (DXY) recently tested a significant resistance level at 102.00, which has proven to be a critical zone in the past, acting as both support and resistance. This rejection signals potential weakness in the dollar and suggests that the bears may take control in the short term. 1.Resistance at 102.00: The 102.00 level has proven to be a strong resistance zone in the past, where the DXY had previously consolidated before a breakdown. The price attempted to push above this level but was swiftly rejected, signaling that sellers have defended this area. This zone also coincides with historical support-turned-resistance, making it a critical price point. 2. Bearish Outlook for the Week: Given the rejection off 102.00, the DXY is likely to experience further downside pressure in the short term. I’m favoring a bearish outlook for the dollar this week, with the expectation of a retracement back towards the key psychological level of 100.00. This level not only holds psychological significance but also aligns with horizontal support from previous price structures. 3. Potential Target – 100.00: The 100.00 mark represents a major confluence zone where the price may find buyers stepping back in. This area has historically acted as a solid support and is likely to attract attention from market participants, making it a key target for short positions. A breakdown below 100.00 could trigger further downside momentum, potentially extending towards 98.60, which is another significant support zone visible on the chart. 4. Trendline & Long-Term Perspective: The chart shows a longer-term upward trendline that has yet to be retested. Should the DXY continue its decline, a bounce off the trendline could be possible. However, if momentum accelerates to the downside, it’s worth noting that a break below 100.00 might lead to a deeper correction, potentially retesting lower support levels, such as 98.60. 5. Momentum & Confirmation: From a technical standpoint, it’s important to watch for confirmation from momentum like Bearish engulfing, which we already have an evening star. If we see bearish divergence or continued rejection of the 102.00 level, it will further support the bearish thesis. Additionally, a break below 101.00 could confirm the continuation of the bearish trend for the week ahead. Conclusion: The Dollar Index appears to be forming a bearish structure, with the 102.00 level acting as a strong resistance. My bias for the week favors short positions, targeting a retracement to the 100.00 level. This outlook is contingent upon continued rejection of the 102.00 level and potential follow-through below 101.00. Traders should remain cautious and wait for further confirmation from their startegies and price action before committing to positions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by eddychuksuniversity
DXY Is Very Bullish! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 102.912. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 104.409 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1