DXY is testing the descending trend line, breakout happening? The US dollar firmed as Trump's escalating tariff threats, from pharma to Indian exports, amplified trade tensions and boosted safe-haven flows. Despite rising global uncertainty, optimism over a possible US-China trade truce extension and a sharply narrower trade deficit also underpinned dollar strength.
DXY retreated below the descending trend line and the ascending channel's upper bound. The price is consolidating below the 100.00 psychological resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement. A rebound from the support at 98.00, in line with the ascending channel's lower bound, could prompt a retest of the channel's resistance, paving the way for further gains toward the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 102.00 resistance, upon breaking 100.00. Conversely, a bearish breakout of the channel and close below the 98.00 support could prompt a further decline toward the following support at 97.00.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
USDINDEX trade ideas
DXYThe DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major world currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). It is a weighted index, with the euro having the largest share, making movements in EUR/USD especially influential on the index. The DXY was created in 1973 by the US Federal Reserve to provide a clear benchmark for the dollar’s international strength after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
Since its inception, the DXY has served as a vital gauge of the dollar’s performance in global trade and financial markets. Historically, it reached its all-time high near 164.72 in 1985, during a period of aggressive US interest rate hikes and a strong economic expansion. Conversely, it hit its all-time low around 70.70 in 2008, at the peak of the global financial crisis, when confidence in the US economy sharply declined.
The index typically rises when investors seek safety in the US dollar, especially during global risk-off events or when US interest rates are relatively high. It also tends to strengthen during periods of US economic growth, reduced liquidity, or tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the DXY weakens when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, inflation rises, or investor sentiment shifts toward riskier assets and other global currencies.
In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, the DXY saw sharp movements. It rallied strongly in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, reaching levels above 114. This was followed by a pullback as inflation cooled and expectations of rate cuts emerged in 2023 and 2024. As of August 2025, the DXY stands at approximately 93.4, reflecting a weaker dollar compared to its recent highs, influenced by a more dovish Federal Reserve, growing US debt concerns, and rising investor interest in alternative assets such as gold and other currencies.
The DXY remains a key tool for traders, economists, and policymakers to assess the dollar’s position in the global economy. Its movements affect everything from commodity prices and trade balances to emerging market capital flows and inflation pressures worldwide.
Dollar Index in Danger: Patterns Point to More DownsideThe dollar index (DXY) is flashing serious warning signs. In this video, I break down the technical evidence behind my bearish outlook on both the monthly and daily charts. The head and shoulders pattern we spotted did work it's way to breaking the neckline BUT the target will Not be achieved as the data on the charts have changed. On the daily charts we have a strong bearish engulfing candle, there is also an RSI divergence in the overbought zone, stochastic indicator has turn down and momentum is also following along. The downtrend on the monthly timeframe has not formed any divergence yet so I expect price to fall below the previous month's low in the coming weeks.
There will be bounces from support zones on the daily and 4 hours, these will be opportunities for good entries.
If you’re holding USD or trading around it, this is a must-watch. The signals are clear—are you prepared?
Cheers and I wish everyone a profitable trade in the coming week.
Dollar Index ProjectionWhere We Were – Market Structure Recap,
The Dollar Index completed a six-month range (110.176 to 96.768) with a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling long-term weakness. From March to June, DXY printed consistent lower lows and closes. July marked a shift with a higher high and close, indicating a possible retracement toward premium levels within the broader downtrend.
Where We Are Now – Current Market Conditions,
DXY is trading near the bottom of its range, interacting with a monthly price imbalance. Last week’s candle closed higher (higher high, higher close), suggesting short-term bullish control.
On the daily timeframe, structure has shifted into a potential sell-to-buy scenario. A new range is defined, and the 62% Fibonacci retracement overlaps with a bearish order block — a likely accumulation zone. The recent daily low is now critical support for this short-term bullish case.
Where We’re Going – Weekly Outlook,
The immediate outlook favors a bullish retracement targeting liquidity above last week’s high and into the monthly imbalance. If support holds, continuation toward premium levels is likely. A break below support invalidates the bullish scenario and shifts the structure bearish.
A false break and rejection (turtle soup) could still keep the bullish case intact if followed by strong buy pressure.
Video Link: www.youtube.com
Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index4-Hour Timeframe🔍 Technical Analysis | DXY | U.S. Dollar Index
4-Hour Timeframe
After hitting a strong supply zone marked in blue at the top of the chart, the price faced selling pressure and entered a bearish phase. Currently, the price is trading within a decision zone between buyers and sellers, where both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible.
🔼 Bullish Scenario:
If the price finds support at the mid-level support zone marked in green, and signs of a bullish reversal appear—such as proper candlestick formation or a renewed breakout of minor resistances (creating higher highs)—then the index is expected to move toward higher resistance levels.
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
Considering the market structure, if the mid-level support is lost and the price settles below this zone, the downtrend may accelerate. The dollar index could then move toward the lower support zone, marked in blue, which previously acted as a strong barrier and reversal area. This level may again serve as a key point to watch for market reactions.
✅ Conclusion
The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a corrective phase, oscillating within a sensitive range. The price reaction to the current support zone will likely determine the next directional move. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for a confirmed breakout or bounce from this area before entering any trades.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:The DXY has recently exited a bearish wave, retested support levels, and began a recovery — currently trading near 100.09, a key resistance area.
🔹 If price breaks and holds above 100.09, the upward move may continue toward the 102.00 zone.
🔹 However, if the index rejects this level and reverses, a retest of 98.80 could follow.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and monitor the markets before making any investment decisions.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – 15M Chart Analysis | Aug 8, 20251. Market Structure:
DXY is trading in a short-term range between 98.471 resistance and 97.952 support, following a sharp downtrend from the 99.072 high.
2. Supply Zone Pressure:
The 98.471 level acts as a strong intraday supply, repeatedly rejecting price and limiting bullish momentum.
3. Demand Zone Cushion:
The 97.952 level is holding as immediate support. Below that, the yellow zone around 97.60–97.45 is a major demand area where buyers may step in.
4. Momentum Bias:
Lower highs from the recent peaks signal ongoing bearish pressure. Short-term rallies are getting sold into, suggesting sellers control the market.
5. Next Move:
Bullish: Break above 98.471 opens path to 98.829–99.072 .
Bearish: Break below 97.952 targets the 97.60–97.45 demand zone.
USD to continue down?: Weekly Review/ fundamental analysis There was a lot of information to take in during the week starting Monday 28 July. A US / EUR trade deal announcement, US GDP, MICROSOFT earnings all contributed to positive market sentiment as the S&P continued to push all time highs. But in a reminder that anything can happen, a combination of NFP, AMAZON earnings and fresh TARIFF UNREST, ensured the week ended on a sour note.
The week got off to a good start with the US / EUR announcement. Although the news weakened the EUR as it appeared the US got the better end of the deal. And all of last weeks EUR positivity was unwound.
Despite the overall positive market mood at the beginning of the week, the currencies once again didn't quite correlate with the environment, as the USD and JPY both started the week particularly strong. Which could have been put down to 'EUR liquidity', meaning the USD and JPY benefited most from the weakness of the EUR. But, more likely, I suspected it was 'positioning' ahead of the important central bank interest rate meetings.
The meetings didn't disappoint, starting with the FOMC. The overall message was a continued reluctance to immediately cut interest rates. In a thinly veiled dig at the president, the line, "looking through inflation by not HIKING rates" sent the USD soaring as the probability of a September cut dropped to 40%.
A few hours later it was the BOJ'S turn. Although acknowledging inflation, a reluctance to immediately HIKE rates disappointed JPY bulls. And when added to positive MICROSOFT earnings, by Thursday's European session we had a peak JPY short opportunity.
But, alas, it wasn't long before disappointing Amazon earnings and the president stirring the tariff pot rocked the boat. And when Friday's NFP data 'surprised to the downside', the rot set in, the S&P dropped and in particular, sentiment for the USD crumbled. And the probability of a September rate cut significantly rose back up to 90%.
It's difficult to trade NFP at the best of times, but particularly when ISM data shortly follows. But I wouldn't argue with anyone who fancied a USD short on Friday.
I begin the new week with an open mind. I do think the S&P has a good chance of recovering (it's only natural for traders to use bad news as an excuse to take profits from all time highs). Sentiment for the USD could remain subdued, I suspect the US 10year will be a prominent part of the narrative.
On a personal note, outside of trading, drunk idiots smashing a bakery window and a member of staff leaving at short notice kept me busy. But I did manage one trade. A post BOJ 'short JPY'. It was coin toss between a post FOMC 'USD long' or a standard 'risk on AUD long'. I plumbed for the AUD. Ultimately, it wouldn't have mattered and the trade it profit.
Please feel free to offer thoughts questions, maybe you've spotted something I've not mentioned.
Results:
Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.3
Total = +1.3%
Review and plan for 1st August 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Quarterly results.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
DXY Top-Down Analysis: Market Structure & Directional Bias This video demonstrates a top-down analysis of DXY. I'll show you how to identify market structure, value areas, directional bias, and key support and resistance levels. You'll learn to analyze the market from weekly to hourly timeframes using Heikin-Ashi candles and the 200 EMA.
the retail trader outlookWe see that the wedge pattern has been completed and the bullish market is strong as the candles a huge, this is a high risk low reward trade as it clear and obvious to the vest public that the markets wants to rally. the role of the dollar price plays a vital role in this not happening as we see that the dollar has formed the yearly low as is starting to move up in an increasingly high speed suggesting that Gold is more likely to be affected by the sudden Rally in the dollar currency and the opposite is true given a drop in dollar.
Fundamentals Support Dollar’s Potential Trend ReversalThe dollar appears to be reversing its direction on the 4-hour timeframe. The trendline has been broken and retested twice, but the dollar has held above it, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
Despite intense pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve, the data is likely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the upcoming meeting and possibly at the one after that. A potential rate cut in September will largely depend on incoming inflation and labor market data.
The inflation impact of tariffs became more visible in the latest CPI report, but the effect is still relatively modest. This aligns with our theory that tariff-driven inflation will build gradually and persist over a longer period, rather than cause an immediate spike.
Meanwhile, the labor market has not shown clear signs of rapid weakening, so there is no strong case for a rate cut from that side either. The Financial Conditions Index also indicates that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side. Bloomberg financial conditions index is at highest level since March.
As markets increasingly recognize that no rate cuts are likely in the near term, and with the August 1 tariff deadline approaching amid potential rising risks of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, the dollar may gain further support. The U.S.–EU bond market spread also does not favor a stronger euro at the moment, adding to the dollar's upside potential.
In the short term, 98.10 and 98.53 are immediate support and resistance levels. If the dollar breaks above 98.53 again, upward momentum may strengthen and open the path toward the 100 level.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Pro Analysis | 1H Chart |1. Strong Bullish Momentum
DXY broke out sharply above the 99.41 resistance, showing clear strength from bulls with minimal pullbacks during the rally.
2. Short-Term Rejection at Supply
Price was rejected from the 99.978 zone — a key supply area. This indicates the presence of active sellers near the psychological 100 level.
3. Retesting Breakout Structure
Currently hovering just above 99.669, the DXY is retesting the previous breakout level. This could act as short-term support if bullish momentum resumes.
4. Next Key Zones
Resistance: 99.978 → 100.534
Support: 99.411 → 98.92
Break below 99.411 may invalidate the breakout.
5. Outlook
Bias remains bullish above 99.41. However, failure to reclaim 99.978 soon may signal temporary exhaustion or consolidation before next leg up.
DXY has finally arrived at our final POI. What next?DXY has finally arrived at a point I marked out for you since. I called it out and I was called a madman.
We may experience some downwards pressure and it already started during the Asian session. We have to wait for further confirmation to know if it wants to continue the bullish movement or fall.
Let's be patient for now.
DXY with interest rates With interest rates remaining steady, the U.S. Dollar is currently moving in a bullish direction.
As shown in the chart, it seems likely that price will break the previous high and form a bullish Quasimodo (QM) pattern. The price may then reach the 50% Fibonacci level.
After that, we should wait and observe the market's reaction.
If price gets rejected from the 103 zone — especially if accompanied by a rate cut or bearish price action — we could see a sharp decline toward the 95 area.
This 95 zone also aligns with a key weekly Fibonacci support level on the Dollar Index.
As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the U.S. Dollar may continue its upward momentum. However, the 103–104 zone — which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a significant supply area — could serve as a strong resistance.
If price gets rejected from this area and we simultaneously see signs of a rate cut or weakening U.S. economic data, a trend reversal and corrective phase could begin. In that case, lower targets around 95 or even 93 could become likely in the medium term.
good luck
DXY still in downward channel. Rejection here = BTC rally The DXY is still in a downward sloping channel and trying to break back above the previous 2-year cycle low, but I think will reject here and kick off the next leg of the BTC rally.
Ideally we get a big DXY drop and ultimately break below the 95% level and on down into 'Bitcoin Super Rally Zone'🚀
DOLLAR INDEX DXYThe latest U.S. economic data released on July 30, 2025 shows:
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Actual increase of 104,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 77,000. This marks a strong rebound from the previous decline of -23,000 in June and indicates solid labor market momentum, particularly in services sectors like leisure/hospitality, financial activities, and trade/transportation. However, education and health services saw job losses. Wage growth remains steady at 4.4% year-over-year for job-stayers.
Advance GDP q/q Growth: Actual growth came in at 3.0%, beating the forecast of 2.5% and improving sharply from -0.5% previously. This suggests that the economy is expanding robustly in the second quarter
Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Inflation measure): Actual was 2.0%, slightly below the forecast of 2.2%, and down from 3.8% previously, indicating easing inflation pressures .
Interpretation of this data for Federal Reserve policy:
The stronger-than-expected job growth and GDP expansion signal a resilient economy, which may reduce the immediate likelihood of Fed rate cuts, as these indicators support sustained economic momentum.
The slightly softer inflation reading on the GDP Price Index suggests inflation pressures are continuing to moderate, which could offer some flexibility to the Fed.
Overall, the Fed is likely to view this data mix as supportive of a cautious, data-dependent approach, possibly maintaining current rates in the short term without rushing to cut, but monitoring to ensure inflation stays on a downward path.
If the Fed prioritizes strong growth and a resilient labor market, rate hikes or holds are more likely than cuts. If inflation remains subdued, it could permit a gradual easing down the line but probably not immediately.
Let me know if you want a detailed outlook on market reactions to this release or the potential Fed communication following today’s data.
#GOLD