$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
DXY trade ideas
DOLLAR I Monday CLS I KL - HTF FVG / OB I Continuation setupHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
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The Most Important Chart Right NowThe Dollar Index is one of the most important charts right now. A weak dollar means looser financial conditions. This is good for US stocks, bitcoin and gold.
The fundamentals are bearish. Both the US and China want a weaker dollar. There are issues in the US bond market, and it's a self-reinforcing cycle as US stock positions need to be currency hedged.
The backdrop to all this is, of course, massive debt and dollar debasement with more money printing on the horizon.
I like the technical picture here, and it's not a bad spot to add to shorts or enter fresh ones. Ideally, we see a pullback to 1.12 on the EUR, but we might not get it, so adding a bit now here is ok.
As always, remember trading is about risk-adjusted returns, so use a stop and keep your position size small unless you are very experienced.
Make US(and USD) weak again, and short DXY 99,358Hey traders, this is a fundamentally and technically based idea. I´m expecting a weakening of USD due to actual US goverment policy. Important weekly lenel 100,600 was broken and holding. If you decide to trade this idea, you can enter now at current price 99,358 and hold till profit lines. TP your trade partially. You can consider averaging at 100,600 instead of cutloss after the reaction. Wish you good luck.
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle!
Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers.
Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle.
Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken.
*Wait For The Break*
-If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area
-If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area
Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate.
With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms!
USD News:
JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th
GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th
Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st
Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd
For all things Currency,
Keep it Current,
With Novi_Fibonacci
Dollar index (DXY) Analysis DXY Analysis – General Outlook
This week’s analysis is more of a general overview, and it closely aligns with my view on EUR/USD. While I don’t trade DXY directly, I use it heavily as a confluence tool, so marking out its likely direction is key for aligning trades across other USD-related pairs.
At the moment, I’m favouring Scenario A, where I expect DXY to move a bit lower, accumulate, and then react from the 2-day demand zone. If that happens, we could see a bullish move on DXY, which would naturally result in bearish pressure for other pairs like EU and GU.
However, if price decides to retrace upwards first, there’s a clean supply zone that still needs to be mitigated. If that zone holds, DXY could continue its bearish structure for longer—meaning more bullish momentum across other major pairs.
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 98.23-97.75. If the price cannot break through the 97.75 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound.
**Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong....
Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower.
What a difference 2 months can make!
Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring.
CAUTION is in order!!
Target not reached! Forced on me.
As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen.
As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression!
WARNING!
DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies.
✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅ Break an d close below July 2023 key 100.00 levels.
✅ Foresee a pull back to, weekly imbalance, daily order block, daily 50ema, weekly order block and or weekly 50 ema.
✅ Awaiting to identify a significant break of structure bullish to use the DXY as confluence for our trading week 18 of Q2 toward key points of interest mentioned above.
✅ Forecasting continued bearish pressure long term.
✅Initially bullish outlook however upon price turn around. DXY to break 100.000 level again.
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
Pairs to look out for -
EURUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
USDCAD
GBPUSD
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
DXY Correction Persists: Further Downside Potential in FocusThe DXY remains in a prevailing downtrend, and I estimate that it is currently in the final stages of wave (v) of wave . The correction is projected to extend toward the 97.023–97.739 area. Meanwhile, the nearest potential rebound zone is located between 99.690 and 100.764.
Heading into pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 100.27
1st Support: 98.32
1st Resistance: 101.77
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USD Index: A Possible Reversal in Sight?Since early February, right after Trump’s inauguration, the USD Index (DXY) has been under pressure, falling sharply by over 10%.
However, after hitting the 98.00 level, things seem to have stabilized. We're seeing the early signs of a relief rally.
🔍 Technical Perspective:
- This week’s candlestick pattern suggests a bullish reversal.
- The dip on Wednesday was quickly bought, showing buyer interest.
- A minor correction occurred yesterday, but dips are being well supported.
- Currently, the DXY trades around 99.60, just under the psychological level of 100.
🎯 Outlook:
As long as 98 remains intact, the bias shifts towards a potential rebound.
First target: 102 – a logical resistance zone and prior support.
This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but the price action is shifting. The key now is how the market reacts around the 100 level. A break above could trigger further bullish momentum.
DXY BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅DXY is trading in a downtrend
And the index is making a local
Bullish correction so after the
Resistance is hit around 100.500
We will be expecting a local
Bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Dollar Index - Short Term Relief Rally Upcoming?From the beginning of 2025, it's been nothing but pain in the markets; bearish prices on bearish prices and it's not looking like it's the ends.
But wheat happens when the market is trading one way for a long time is you tend to have short squeezes. This is where traders place and trail their stop losses above recent highs with the expectation that the market will not reverse back into the highs before continuing lower.
I believe something like this can play out this week It all depends on Sundays opening....
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s strength in global markets.
How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex
Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness
When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the world’s primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends.
Correlation with Major Currency Pairs
Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa.
Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX.
Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices.
Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals
Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies.
Macro and Sentiment Indicator
The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows.
Summary
Aspect Effect on Forex Trading
Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise
Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall
USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX
USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX
Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends
In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollar’s strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.