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DXY Dual Perspective: Smart Money OB Short vs. Mid-Term LongThis chart presents two perspectives: My Perspective (Dipanshu - GreenFireForex): Expecting a bearish reversal from the current Order Block (OB) between 101.9 – 103.2, possibly due to inefficiency and early liquidity sweep. ChatGPT’s Refined Perspective: OB refined to 102.4 – 103.0 zone, aligning with imbalance and previous H4 structure break. A rejection from there is more probable. Target: Both views expect a drop toward the Demand Zone at 96.4 – 96.3, with bullish reversal expected from that key support. Let’s observe whether the DXY respects early inefficiency or reaches full OB. Comment your bias below! ---
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Greenfireforex
Trump's dollar disregardUpdated version of my chart from 2022, whereby we predicted the rising strength of TVC:DXY to fill out the channel forecasted. Gold pumping to ATH's with increased political uncertainty throughout the globe and China dumping its US treasuries i am surprised the dollar has held sustained this price. Here present is some technical analysis outlining the key levels for $TVC:DXY. Keeping this text short i am predicting the decline of the Dollar and i am currently keeping my eye on the GBP/USD chart alongside NOK/USD as see these as the most interesting in the FX markets.
TVC:DXY
by ben_findlay
DOLLARDollar (DXY) Outlook: Bearish Near-Term, Consolidation with Mild Depreciation Current Trends: The U.S. dollar has weakened 8.4% year-to-date, pressured by: Economic Contraction: Q1 2025 GDP shrank by 0.3%, driven by pre-tariff import surges and softening domestic demand. Fed Policy Uncertainty: Mixed signals on inflation control and delayed rate cuts erode confidence. Trade Tensions: Escalating U.S. tariffs disrupt global markets, favoring alternatives like the euro as a safe haven. Technical Momentum: Bearish chart patterns suggest further downside, with key support levels at risk. Reserve Currency Status: Despite concerns, the USD retains 57.8% of global reserves, providing a floor against rapid declines. Treasury Yields and Recession Signals Yield Levels 10-year: 4.439% 2-year: 3.976% 30-year: 4.900% Inverted Yield Curve: The 10-2 spread remains negative, a historically reliable recession indicator. Past inversions preceded downturns by 18–92 weeks, signaling heightened recession risks. Implications for USD: Inverted curves typically weaken the dollar as markets price in future Fed rate cuts. Rising long-term yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.439%) paradoxically coincide with dollar weakness, reflecting investor skepticism about U.S. economic resilience. Key Drivers and Cross-Currency Impacts Factor Impact on USD Impact on Yields Fed Policy Uncertainty ↓ (Delayed cuts weigh) ↑ (Volatility in rate expectations) Trade Tariffs ↓ (Safe-haven flows to EUR) ↑ (Risk premium in long-term yields) Inverted Yield Curve ↓ (Recession fears) – (Historically precedes recessions) Eurozone Growth (0.4% Q1) ↓ (EUR strength pressures USD) – Conclusion The U.S. dollar faces a bearish near-term bias, driven by economic softness, tariff headwinds, and technical breakdowns. Treasury yields, particularly the inverted curve, reinforce recession risks and further USD downside. However, the dollar’s reserve status and higher relative rates (vs. peers like the euro and yen) may limit severe declines, favoring consolidation with mild depreciation. Watch for: Fed communication on rate cuts and inflation. Eurozone PMI data (May 22) to gauge EUR resilience. 10-2 yield spread dynamics for recession timing clues. In summary, the dollar’s trajectory hinges on balancing recession risks against its yield advantage, with bears currently in control.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Ready to Pop – Watch That 100 Break!After breaking below the key psychological level at 100 and making a low just under 98, the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a consolidation phase. Over the past three weeks, price has developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline perfectly aligning with the horizontal resistance at 100 — a strong zone of confluence from both a technical and psychological standpoint. Despite the current hesitation under resistance, the structure suggests bullish potential. I believe we are approaching a breakout above 100, and once that happens, an acceleration to the upside is likely to follow. 🎯 Target: 102 🔒 Invalidation: A break below 98 would cancel the bullish bias. As long as the price stays above the 98 area, I remain bullish and expect the dollar to strengthen. 🚀 The breakout hasn’t happened yet — but the pressure is building.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
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TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
DOLLARDXY (US Dollar Index) and Bond Yield Relationship – May 2025 Current Market Situation US Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% (May 21, 2025), and the 30-year yield is testing the 5% level amid a global bond sell-off. DXY (US Dollar Index): The DXY and the 10-year yield are moving in sync again after a period of divergence earlier in 2025. Relationship Dynamics Positive Correlation: Historically, the DXY and US bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) tend to move together. When yields rise, the dollar often strengthens, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns. In recent weeks, this positive correlation has resumed after a brief disconnect in April, when yields surged but the dollar weakened due to shifting investor sentiment and US tariff policy. Periods of Divergence: In early April 2025, there was a notable divergence: yields climbed while the dollar fell, reflecting a rare episode where investors were wary of US assets despite higher returns, possibly due to concerns about US fiscal health and global trade tensions. During that period, both US bonds and the dollar declined together, signaling a potential shift away from US assets and raising questions about the dollar’s structural appeal as a reserve currency. Recent Realignment: After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and a major tariff agreement with China, the DXY and yields began rising together again, indicating renewed confidence in US assets and a return to more typical market behavior. Key Factors Influencing the Relationship Fed Policy: Expectations for future rate cuts or hikes directly influence both yields and the dollar. Higher expected rates generally support both. Global Risk Sentiment: In risk-off scenarios, the dollar can strengthen even if yields fall, due to safe-haven demand. Trade and Fiscal Policy: Tariffs and concerns about US debt sustainability can disrupt the usual correlation, as seen in early 2025. Summary Table Factor Impact on DXY Impact on Yields Typical Correlation Rising US Yields Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive US Fiscal Concerns Can weaken DXY Yields may rise Can diverge Global Risk Aversion Strengthens DXY Yields may fall Can diverge Trade Tensions/Tariffs Mixed Mixed May disrupt correlation Conclusion As of May 2025, the DXY and US bond yields have resumed a positive correlation, both rising in response to Fed policy signals and improved risk sentiment following a major tariff agreement. However, earlier in the year, this relationship broke down due to concerns about US fiscal stability and shifting global investment flows. The interplay between DXY and yields remains sensitive to Fed policy, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical developments. #DOLLAR #DXY
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
US Dollar Index Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 051925Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 100/61.80% Chart time frame:B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TVC:DXY
by fibonacci6180
USD Bulls Battle at SupportThe U.S. Dollar dropped into support early in the week at 99.95-100.15- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the late-April advance, the 2023 low-day close, and the 2024 low. Note that the 100% extension of the decline rests just lower at 99.55 and losses would need to be limited to this level IF Euro is heading higher on this stretch. Initial resistance is at with the Friday close at 100.98 with a breach / close above the September high / high-day close (HDC) at 101.77/92 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. -MB
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Death of US Dollar – DXY Technical Analysis (SUPPLY & DEMAND)The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken its long-term parabolic uptrend and lost the key 100–104 support zone, which has now flipped into fresh supply after a clean retest—confirming a macro structural shift from bullish to bearish. Repeated rejections from the decades-old descending trendline and major supply around 111–114 mark the end of the dollar’s recent dominance. With no strong support until the 89.16 level—and deeper demand zones at 84 and even 76—DXY is likely entering a prolonged downtrend. This breakdown has global implications: easing dollar strength typically boosts risk assets, commodities, and emerging markets, while accelerating dedollarization narratives. For Bitcoin, this environment is historically bullish, potentially fueling the next crypto rally as capital rotates into scarce, decentralized assets amid weakening fiat confidence. Unless the dollar reclaims 104 on a monthly close, this marks the beginning of a macro bearish cycle for the USD.
ICEUS:DXYShort
by Waisventures
Chart spoke. We listened. See how price respected every level!"Great when BOS + supply/demand lines hit perfectly. Most traders chased the bounce. We waited in the shadows — right at the selling zone. Wave 4? Textbook correction. Wave 5? That’s where the money’s made. Elliott Wave isn’t just theory — it’s a weapon. Break of structure? Marked. Zone tested? Clean. Rejection? Savage. This is how professionals trade — not with hope, but with precision. DXY: playing checkers while we play chess.”**
TVC:DXY
by Greenfireforex