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US Dollar Into Resistance on China Tariff Agreement- First TestNews of a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and China fueled a rally of more than 1.1% in the US Dollar with the index surging into confluent downtrend resistance today at 101.77/92 - a region defined by the objective September high and the high-day close (HDC). A topside breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / invalidate the February downtrend. Near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 99.96 with a breach here exposing 102.95/99 and the 200-day moving average into 104.04/30 . Keep in mind we have U.S. CPI on tap tomorrow. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels. -MB
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY Has More To The UpsideDXY is right now in what I believe to be a 4th wave correction, which has turned into a wxy, and probably also will turn into a WXYXZ. It has plenty of room to develop. Since 4th wave corrections has a tendency to enter the area of the 4th wave of previous impulse, it will most likely go up to the area of the green rectangle above. This will be between 103.2 - 104,7. If it will go further up before heading down is to early to say. But my previous forecast about it will go down below 96 is still in play and intact.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
DXY Breakout! Bullish Momentum Targets 103.6 and 107.4 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has just made a strong bullish breakout from the 99.05–100 demand zone, confirming a reversal from its recent downtrend. This region has acted as a high-volume node and key institutional accumulation zone, as highlighted by the LuxAlgo Supply & Demand Visible Range. Key Technical Highlights: Demand Zone: The 98.5–100.5 range showed significant volume buildup and price rejection, signaling strong buyer interest. Breakout Confirmation: Price broke through minor resistance at 101.2 with strong momentum and a bullish candle close. Next Target: Eyes on 103.621, the next key resistance zone. A break above may push DXY towards 107.467, aligning with a major supply area. Volume Profile: Low volume between 101.2 and 103.6 suggests a potential quick move toward the next resistance. Indicators: RSI trending up but not yet overbought. MACD shows early bullish crossover on the 4H timeframe. Fundamentals to Watch: Upcoming USD economic data (CPI, Retail Sales, FOMC minutes). Risk-off sentiment globally could boost USD as a safe-haven play. Trade Plan (Not Financial Advice): Buy Zone: Already triggered breakout above 101.2. TP1: 103.6 TP2: 107.4 SL: Below 99.8 to invalidate the breakout thesis. What do you think? Will DXY continue its bullish move or face rejection around 103.6? Let’s discuss in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FrankFx14
Dxy bullish idea for next week - MMBMThis is a bullish possibility for DXY price action for next week. Monthly: - Price took a swing low confluent with a bearish breaker in discount and closed above the level; Weekly: - Price Took a swing below monthly swing with a bullish reaction. If this week closes with above previous weeks high, it confirms a bullish weekly swing; Daily: - Monday printed the likelly low of the week - A daily fair value gap is open allow with a volume imballance around monday open signalling bullish price action - a retrace to these levels would be a good buying opportunity. 4h: - there is a market maker buy model in play. - as of now, price already printed an intermidiate term low signalling that low risk buy myght have happened. News forecast: - I expect NFP to either retrace price to daily fvg or daily volume imbalance and leave a bullish reaction. - FOMC next week might bring the volatility to complete the mmbm Thank you for reading
TVC:DXYLong
by josefreis
1
DXY is entering the Smart Money play — Are you ready Temporary selling pressure is unfolding, but a powerful bullish reversal zone is on the horizon! Don’t miss this key USD cycle setup The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently breaking down for a temporary selling phase, approaching a high-probability demand zone between 96.40–98.00. According to the Smart Money Concept, institutional players are clearing liquidity before driving price back towards the higher supply zone (106–110). Key Insights: – Temporary Sell-Off: Price is moving toward the demand zone – Bullish Reversal Expected: Watch for signs of accumulation around 96.40–98.00 – Next Target: Supply zone near 106+ levels – Strategy: Monitor for bullish confirmation before longing Stay ahead with clean Smart Money setups —
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Greenfireforex
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%. The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks. The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information. The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves. Market and Economic Context: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures. Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025 Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision: Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics. Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting. Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing. The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment. In brief: The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies. Impact on the US Dollar The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors. Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions. Impact on Bond Markets The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks. Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns. Impact on Gold Prices Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold. Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%. The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks. The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information. The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves. Market and Economic Context: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures. Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025 Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision: Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics. Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting. Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing. The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment. In brief: The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies. Impact on the US Dollar The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors. Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions. Impact on Bond Markets The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks. Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns. Impact on Gold Prices Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold. Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Analysis of the DXY's Trend and Operational SuggestionsDuring today's US market trading session, from a technical analysis perspective, on the daily chart level, the stochastic indicator forms a death cross and diverges downward, which is undoubtedly a strong bearish signal. In terms of the K-line pattern, the current price continues to be under pressure from above, and the overall trend is weak. At the 4-hour level, the stochastic indicator also forms a death cross and points downward. The K-line presents a horizontal consolidation pattern in the shape of a straight line. This pattern usually indicates that the price is accumulating downward momentum, so it can be regarded as an important basis for bearish sentiment under pressure. By comprehensively considering the technical indicators of various cycles and the K-line pattern, the current market is clearly under the dominance of bears, and its weak characteristics are fully manifested. The DXY encounters strong suppression at the mid-axis position of the daily chart, and the suppression effect is significant. Combining the current market environment and technical trends, it is expected that the DXY will continue its downward trend, and its subsequent performance remains pessimistic. DXY sell@99.700-99.500 tp:99-98.500 Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
TVC:DXYShort
by VolatilityWise