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DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings. 📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY. Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars. 💰 Money Supply Contraction Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar. 📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar. Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down. in my opinion the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength. If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession. Like Comment Follow Tip Gift its appreciated for more serious work like this.
TVC:DXYShort
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!DXY Starts the Bearish Trend! Yesterday, the DXY made a clear breakout on the daily chart from a strong structure zone located near 106.20. Since that moment, the DXY hasn't paused, leading to a weakening USD. Even if the DXY corrects, it is expected to be short-term. The DXY may test the 105.7 - 106.20 range as a maximum before a more significant bearish wave occurs. The U.S. dollar dropped to a near three-month low against major peers on Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from Canada and China, which stoked fears of an escalating trade war. Fears about weaker U.S. and global economic activity are driving the sell-off. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by KlejdiCuni
6
DXY Squeeze Incoming? Watch 99.00 ReactionFundamental Analysis: The TVC:DXY has weakened as recent data shows GDP growth slowing to 2.4%, inflation cooling to 2.4%, and unemployment rising to 4.2%, increasing expectations of potential Fed rate cuts despite rates holding at 4.5%. Investor confidence has also dropped, with consumer sentiment at 50.8, and the trade deficit still wide at $123B, signaling softer economic momentum. 📉 Projection: Continued soft data could keep the dollar under pressure unless the Fed reinforces a hawkish stance. ⚠️ Risk Level: A strong upside surprise in inflation or employment data could reverse sentiment and push DXY higher abruptly. Technical Analysis: DXY is currently hovering around 99.65, just above a key support zone near 99.00 (PWL), where a potential liquidity grab may occur. The RSI is near 30, signaling oversold conditions, which often precede a short-term bounce. 📈 Projection: If price holds above 99.00, a rebound toward the 100.91 gap and possibly 103.19 (PWH) is likely. ⚠️ Risk Level: A clean break below 99.00 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the way to 97.50–98.00.
TVC:DXYLong
by rTrader_official
Last Week’s FX Recap: April 7–11 (Zone Reactions & Trade Notes)📈 Weekly Forex Recap – Market Reactions & Lessons (Apr 7–11) Last week there were about +320 pips of reaction potential (excluding Gold, which I was completely off on). There were multiple opportunities to capture solid intraday or swing setups. 3 out of 6 weekly targets were hit. 5 out of 6 trend biases were either accurate or neutral —meaning no major misreads, aside from one or two volatile zones. The only pair that really got me was Gold. Let’s run it back real quick: ✅ AUDJPY Bearish bias accurate. 30 pip reaction off zone with just 1 pip drawdown. Weekly target hit. ✅ NZDJPY Bearish bias accurate. Weekly target hit, though price never reached the watch zone. No setup triggered, but direction was respected. ⚠️ EURUSD Range-bound bias played out majority of the week. Gave about 90–100 pip drop from the hot zone mentioned. Weekly target came close but didn’t hit. ⚠️ GOLD Watch zone completely failed. Short-term bounce gave 480 pip reaction—but that volatility was tough to catch cleanly. Directional bias wasn’t helpful here. Gold was chaos. ✅ EURGBP Cleanest setup of the week. Bias was bullish, price tapped the buy zone and ran 100 pips. Weekly target hit. Textbook move. ⚠️ GBPUSD Consolidation-heavy. Watch zone gave 100 pip reaction, but weekly target didn’t hit. Bias was unclear—no real conviction either way. 📉 Total Zone Reaction Potential: 320 pips 🎯 Weekly Targets Hit: 3/6 📊 Trend Accuracy: 50% (3 clear hits, 2 neutral, 1 miss) But that’s done now. Whether you hit it last week or fumbled the ball, let it go. We trade forward. Eyes up. Mind clear. Time to dive into the new week. Let’s get it. 👊
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by elevatedinvestor
top is in for the dxygm, this idea has been in the works for years, ever since we topped out 3 years ago. there has been quite a bit of variations of this idea, but this one right here has been my primary idea for a very long time. initially i imagined the dxy coming up to 111-113 before topping out, and i reckon it still can, but the worst is behind us, relatively speaking. --- if my count here is correct, the dxy will begin extending down into wave c into the last days of 2025 where a major low will be put in place . this will create a hyper-parabolic bull phase for risk assets, in conjunction with declining rates. --- if you've been waiting for a signal to buy alts this is your signal. 🌙 --- ps. view my private idea from last year via: 🌙
TVC:DXYShort
by notoriousbids
How far could the USD fall?.. WATCH THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar is declining as US uncertainty continues and cash moves out of the US. I personally think the dollar will bounce, but how far could it fall in the meantime... Price is testing the previous monthly horizontal resistance as support and the monthly 100 SMA. The dollar may find a bottom here. From 98 to 100 on TVC:DXY Price may reach the monthly bullish channel support. There will likely be technical buyers in this area. From 95 to 96 on TICKMILL:DXY Good luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
U.S political events have a significant impact on the USDTrump Election (2016): subsequent DXY downtrend during the first year of TRUMP presidency. The price seems to have retraced from a peak and continued declining for about a year. Biden Election (2020): After the 2020 election of Joe Biden, there was a notable bottoming pattern, followed by a strong upward movement in the DXY, implying a recovery or strengthening of the USD. the DXY moved within a range during Trump's presidency, between 88.275 and 104.023 . Current Analysis (2024): The DXY is approaching a sell zone, potentially aiming for a reintegration into the Trump range. U.S. political events, such as presidential elections, have a significant impact on the USD's strength. The transitions in administrations are marked by notable shifts in the DXY.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by dragonflypips
2
A Zoom of the Weekly DXY into a Daily viewI kept the colored rectangels from my weekly analysis, to keep the focus and knowledge where we are on the chart. DXY is doing a long A-B-C before it's is going into the last impulse og the C of Y of x of the larger degree. It's quite a lot of corrections to manage, but if you swipe from the daily to the weekly timeframe, it makes good sense. For me at least :D. The purple B wave took some time to figure out, but this was what made most sense to me. I was trying to look at it as a triangle, but that wouldn't have a good shape, so I ended out with this white ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction. DXY is right now performing, what I see as, a extended 5th wave in the white ((iii) wave, before it goes into the white ((iv)) correction. The white ((iv) wave correction could be become a long shallow drawn out correction for two reasons. We had a steep and swift white (ii) followed by an extended white ((iii) wave. This usually means we are going to spend some time correcting that white (iii) wave and the rule of alternation tells us, if we have a quick 2nd wave, we are usually going to see a slow fourth wave. I don't believe we have completed the white (iii) yet, so we have a long time to go still until that white (iv) wave is done. When the white (iv) wave is done, the white (v) wave is probaly going to take us down to that green box. So relax for the next 6 months and grab yourself a cup of coffee.
TVC:DXY
by TheDane
2
DeGRAM | DXY dropped below 100 pointsDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines. On the downside, the price has formed a gap and dropped below 100 pips and has already reached the lower trend line. The chart maintains a descending structure but has already formed a harmonic pattern and a descending wedge. On the major timeframes, the index relative strength is in the oversold zone and on the 30m Timeframe it is forming a bullish convergence. We expect a reversal after a support retest. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
2
DXY Current Outlook 4hr , Daily and weekly analysisAt its current level, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a critical zone where a potential bullish reversal could occur. It is plausible that the index could reverse somewhere between the 99.50 – 98.00 range. However, there is also a possibility that this zone could break, leading to further downside continuation, potentially targeting the 96.23 – 93.95 levels. It’s important to always watch for potential reversal signs at key levels. The reversal, if it happens, will likely be confirmed by certain indicators or patterns—like reversal candlestick formations—that we’ve mentioned before. Once price reaches those zones, look out for any of those confirmation signals, and use your own trading experience to validate them. That being said, it’s also realistic to consider that the current zone (between 99.00 – 98.00) might already be the point where the dollar begins a strong recovery. Note: All scenarios are valid, and key levels should be monitored closely for signs of a shift in momentum TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYLong
by ProfissionalGoldHntryhunter
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone. In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established. Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
TVC:DXY
by Aleksin_Aleksandar