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Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect🇺🇸💣 Dollar Index Analysis – Trump, Hegemony & a Dangerous Disconnect 📉⚠️ Hey Traders, FXPROFESSOR here with a deep-dive update on the Dollar Index (DXY) – and this one hits both technicals and macro geopolitics. 🧠 Macro Context: For decades, the U.S. strategically outsourced much of its basic manufacturing capacity to China—everything from screws, cables, plastics, and circuit boards. This freed America to focus on high-margin sectors like technology, finance, and defense innovation. But this efficiency came at a cost: dependency. You can't be the military and economic hegemon of the world if you don’t manufacture your own basic components. That’s the foundation of hard power—and Trump understands this well. 🔁 Now Trump is trying to reverse that. He knows America can’t win long-term without reclaiming production and export competitiveness – and a strong dollar kills that dream. So what’s the play? ✅ Trump brings the volatility ✅ Fed stays cautious ✅ Dollar weakens... but without actual rate cuts That’s the scary part 👇 📉 💵 Dollar Strength vs. Treasury Stress This is also why the U.S. Treasury market is under stress. If the U.S. wants to rebuild domestic production, reduce trade deficits, and support massive fiscal spending, it needs to weaken the dollar and attract internal capital—not depend on foreign buyers of debt. A strong dollar = trade imbalance, hollowed industry, and rising debt service costs. A normalized dollar = controlled exports, internal manufacturing, and a potential realignment of global capital flows. 📉 The Chart: "The Year of the Normalized Dollar" 🟡 This is a continuation of the same chart I published over a year ago. Key Rejection Zone: 100.965 (former support, now resistance) Current Trajectory: Approaching my long-held target at 94.677 Macro Message: The dollar is dropping without a Fed pivot Worrying Signal: If we hit major support while the Fed stays tight... the entire market may need to reprice expectations. That could shake equities and crypto alike. 🧊 This is not a clean-cut dollar short anymore . It’s already priced in, and that’s why I’m spooked. 🧭 What I’m Watching: Will Trump’s trade war accelerate this move? Will Powell finally cut in September—or double down? Will the support at 94.5 hold, or break and open a much larger macro shift? This chart is no longer just technical. It’s political. It’s strategic. It’s a chessboard for hegemony. 🎥 FULL 20-min video breakdown is now live! I cover DXY, Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, silver, DAX, BTC.D and much more Watch it if you want the full map of what I’m thinking this week. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
2
Macro Moves & Market Reversals: BTC-Metals-Tech-Dollar & more! 🤖📊 Macro Moves & Market Reversals: Bitcoin, Metals, Tech, Dollar & DAX Breakdown 🔥💹 Hey beautiful people, FXPROFESSOR here with a massive market update to kick off the week. This one’s for my serious traders—those of you ready to read the market like a pro 📚💡 We’re in a critical transition. The Trump–Powell standoff, rate cut games, tariff escalations, and a surprising shift in risk appetite across bonds, metals, and equities are reshaping the entire trading landscape. Let’s get into the full breakdown 👇 🧠 MACRO FIRST – THE FUNDAMENTAL PULSE 🟢 Interest Rates: The Fed is keeping rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing strong jobs data. 147K jobs added, unemployment at 4.1%. The market wanted bad news for rate cuts... didn’t get it. 🗓 September remains the most likely cut, but the Fed isn’t rushing. Strong labor = slow policy change. ⚠️ Tariffs Heating Up: Trump just slapped 25–40% tariffs on imports from Japan, Korea, and others – effective August 1. ➡️ If no political resolution by July 9, prepare for a volatility wave. Tariffs = supply chain risks + cost-push inflation. 💣 Geopolitics: Middle East tensions remain background noise, but no major disruptions for now. Still, oil remains sensitive. 📈 Risk Appetite (Bonds): U.S. Treasuries still lagging, but junk bonds and quality credit (LQD) have pumped. That’s a big clue: risk appetite is returning, even without a Fed pivot. 📉 DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – "THE YEAR OF THE NORMALIZED DOLLAR" We’ve followed this dollar short all year. 🔻 From rejection at 100.965, DXY dropped straight into our long-term 94–95 target zone. 📌 Now what? This level is MAJOR. A bounce could trap dollar bears. 🧭 No new short from me unless we re-tag 100+. The juice is squeezed. Key takeaway: The dollar already priced in rate cuts, and we didn’t even get them. That’s telling me the next macro move might not be so predictable. 💰 BITCOIN – STILL THE KING 📍 BTC at $115K resistance – a level I’ve charted for years, not weeks. Three hits: 1️⃣ First rejection 2️⃣ Second rejection 3️⃣ And now... a decisive moment 🚨 Break 115K → BTC flies. 📉 Fail here → we could revisit $64K, yes, seriously. I’m ready for both outcomes. This is not the time for hopium. It’s 50/50. 🪙 BTC DOMINANCE – THE ALTCOIN SWITCH BTC.D is now above 65%. That means: ✔️ Capital flowing back into BTC ❌ Altcoins not ready yet We don’t chase alts until BTC.D hits 71.3–72.9%. That’s the real “altseason trigger zone.” 🔒 I’m personally turned off from alts for now—too much noise, too many memes, not enough macro support. 🔩 PRECIOUS METALS – SHINING BRIGHT 💛 Gold (XAU/USD): Reached near $3,500 highs Now stalling 🛑 Taking profits here – caution warranted. 🤍 Silver (XAG/USD): 13-year high Holding $36+ well Potential breakout pending global inflation data 💿 Platinum (the sleeper): +47% YTD Beautiful long setup played out exactly as planned Still bullish above $1,400 if supply squeeze continues 💡 ETFs in metals are seeing inflows – more institutions hedging as dollar weakens. 🚗🔌 TECH STOCKS – NVDA, TSLA & THE NASDAQ 📈 NVIDIA (NVDA) Best trade of the year for me Clean re-entry, now hitting ATH levels AI demand + tight supply = rocket fuel ⚡ Tesla (TSLA) Bounce off 4H trendline Still lagging slightly – political tensions (Trump vs. Musk) not helping But levels are working like a charm 📊 NASDAQ (QQQ) Hit our “max pain” zone perfectly Rebounded with textbook precision Momentum intact – watching for new highs 🇩🇪 DAX INDEX – CHARTS DON’T LIE All-time high. Boom. Called it weeks ago. Despite: No Russian energy Industrial drag ECB policy constraints 📌 But what worked? ➡️ Simple chart structure. ➡️ Market psychology. ➡️ Pure TA. Now at resistance again. Watch carefully – support below is clearly defined. 🧾 FINAL THOUGHTS – THE PROFESSOR'S NOTES 🔹 The market’s narrative can change fast, especially with Trump in the mix. He’s Mr. Volatility. 🔹 Powell holds the real power – and right now, he’s not flinching. 🔹 Risk appetite is back – but not evenly. Bitcoin is leading, altcoins are lagging, metals are maturing. 🔹 If rate cuts materialize in September, expect massive rotation across all risk assets. 💭 Until then, I’m playing level-to-level. No FOMO. Just charts and logic. That’s how we survive, and thrive. Let me know which chart you want next – and thank you for staying sharp 💪📚 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
1
DXY Trade Setup✅ Trade Setup Details: Entry: 96.850 Stop Loss (SL): 96.650 Take Profit (TP): 97.350 ✅ This is a good RRR. A 2.5:1 ratio means you're risking $1 to potentially earn $2.50 — favorable for consistent trading. 📈 Chart & Technical Analysis (based on your image): ✅ Entry is near the middle Bollinger Band and above Ichimoku cloud — a technical support zone. ✅ SL is placed below recent support and Ichimoku base, giving some buffer in case of volatility. ✅ TP at 97.350 aligns with the recent swing high or top of the breakout channel. ⚠️ Things to Watch: If DXY drops below 96.700, it may signal weakness or a shift in sentiment — watch volume and price reaction. If price stays above cloud and rising trendline, your trade remains valid. 🟢 Summary: Bias: Bullish Setup: Good technical entry with solid support below and clear resistance target. Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (2.5:1) Strategy: Hold unless price breaks below 96.650 with volume.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Harry_Megat
Dollar Index-Stops At Gap ResistanceAfter just a temporary setback in stocks and a brief move higher in the dollar earlier this week, we’re once again seeing a strong reversal across the board. This comes after Donald Trump extended the July 9th tariff deadline to August 1st, giving more time for trade negotiations with various countries. That brought some optimism back into the markets, and if stocks continue to gain, the dollar index is likely to remain in its downtrend. In fact, the dollar index stopped right at the June 26th gap near the 97.70 resistance level. We believe that the corrective price action from July 1st could now be coming to an end, and the market may resume lower—especially if we get a breakout below the corrective channel support near 97. GH
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
Continuation of DXY bullish narrative, who says NO?Like I said in my last published post, dxy is bullish for now till we see otherwise. The first TP has been reached, more than 100 pips bagged, the trade is still on but I'm looking at a possiblity of compounding here. I told you guys, this trade will make you a huge amount of money if you're willing to ride it with me. This means bearish EURUSD AND GBPUSD et al. Trade accordingly. We may have a final sweep of 97.260 area. You can wait for that sweep before entering. I'm not, I won't be on chart then but the stop will hold. Few pips won't change the trade idea will it? Follow me as my trades are usually market order, so you'll see them on time and enter on time. Enjoy
TVC:DXYLong
by UGBOR
US dollar, Trump has done it!Since the start of 2025, the US dollar has established itself as the weakest major currency on the Forex market, falling by over 11% against a basket of major currencies. If we extend the reference period to include Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the slide even reaches 12%. This spectacular decline is no accident, but the fruit of a strategy deliberately implemented by the Trump administration. The stated aim is clear: to restore the commercial competitiveness of American companies, boost exports and restore the price advantage of products made in the USA. In this respect, the fall of the US dollar on the FX has fulfilled its mission. Can we now envisage a low point for the US dollar on the FX? 1) US dollar: the battle for currency competitiveness has been won for US companies, and this should have a positive impact on the second-quarter results of S&P 500 companies published this July Indeed, the fall in the dollar translates directly into a much more favorable environment for exporting groups, particularly those which generate the bulk of their sales in Europe or Asia. The conversion of foreign currencies into dollars mechanically boosts revenues and margins. For many multinationals, this factor is likely to contribute to strong earnings releases in the second quarter, as the reporting period takes place this summer. Beyond the immediate impact on corporate accounts, the greenback's depreciation is also encouraging a more structural trend towards reindustrialization and support for domestic production. The effects of this dynamic can already be seen in certain manufacturing segments, which are regaining international market share. Nevertheless, this scenario is not without its downsides: a weak dollar makes imports more expensive, especially raw materials, and weighs on companies dependent on foreign inputs. On the whole, however, the exchange rate policy implemented since January represents a successful gamble by Donald Trump to boost American competitiveness. 2) Technical analysis: can we anticipate a low point for the US dollar? The crucial question today is whether the US dollar can pull back further, or whether a technical and fundamental bottom is emerging. From a technical analysis point of view, the DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies weighted 57% by the euro and 13% by the yen, remains anchored in a bearish trend. Some of the theoretical targets evoked by Elliottist analysis have been reached, but not all. However, long-term supports are visible on monthly charts: an uptrend line, particularly visible on the arithmetic scale, could act as a short-term stabilizer. Note that a potential bullish divergence is also possible on the weekly timeframe. But a bullish reversal pattern is still lacking to speak of a major low point, so let's not put the cart before the horse. 3) Scenarios and stakes for the rest of the year for the US dollar on FX Beyond technical considerations, the persistent weakness of the US dollar acts as a revealing indicator of the tensions between trade policy and financial stability. On the one hand, a dollar under pressure is a powerful lever for supporting exports and consolidating US growth in an uncertain global context. On the other, a prolonged fall in the greenback fuels concerns about international confidence in dollar-denominated assets, and makes imports more expensive, which could rekindle inflationary pressures. This dilemma lies at the heart of the forthcoming trade-offs between the White House and the Federal Reserve. For investors and companies exposed to Forex, several scenarios are conceivable. If the U.S. political agenda leads to a trade compromise, and if second-quarter publications confirm the robustness of the U.S. economy, the dollar is likely to find a technical floor around the supports identified on the DXY. In this scenario, a stabilization phase, or even a moderate rebound, could set in during the second half of the year. Conversely, if the trade stimulus policy is accompanied by a hardening of relations with Europe and China, or if the Fed is slow to react, the downward momentum could be prolonged. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
Bullish for DXY, tuesday trading still bullish on dxy, two areas of interest are those two 4hr fvg shown. Thier is also sellside liquidity , whcih we can sweep or we can have a deeper retracement, and touch the second fvg. I am still expecting a bullish dollar for the week, even tho my weekly objective has been met. The US10Y looks really strong and the u.s trasury bonds look week. The only thing is that if you look at the eurusd chart, we have equal highs, so that can be something to watch.
TVC:DXYLong
by diegoulises281
US$ Index and the Elliott Wave PrinciplesWe are on the last 'leg' of an impulse move that should contain 5 Waves and is marked in Red. After Wave 1(Red) completed, we witnessed a Zigzag correction for Wave 2(Red). This means we should expect a Flat correction for Wave 4(Red). Wave 3(Red) is extended to the 361.8% Fib. level and this is very normal for both impulse and corrective waves. When Wave 3 (Red) is complete, a shallow correction appears and this is the first wave of the Flat correction. This is marked in Green. Wave B(Green) reaches the 423.6% Fib. level(which is normal) and in doing so extends beyond the end of wave 3(Red), which is also according to the rules of a Flat correction. At the 423.6% Fib. level, this level is also 100% of the inner zigzag from points A to B(Green). At this area we see a retest and confirmation take place, which marks the end of Wave B(Green) and the start of Wave C(Green) which is also Wave 4(Red).
TVC:DXYLong
by machariavictor017
Major resistance level ahead?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.90 1st Support: 96.46 1st Resistance: 98.57 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback. The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs. If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target. Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD. Take care until the next update!
TVC:DXY
by FundedTraderMarkets
Potential USD Strengthening Ahead | DXY vs BTCUSD Outlook ⚡ The DXY has now reached the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel, a historically significant technical zone where rebounds have occurred in the past. 💡 If this pattern holds, a strong rebound towards the 121 level on the DXY looks probable in the coming months. What does this mean for BTC? Historically, a strengthening USD has often resulted in a reciprocal effect on BTCUSD, leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. The chart suggests that if the DXY rebounds as expected, BTCUSD could witness a significant decline proportionate to the USD's strength. Key Takeaways: ✅ DXY at crucial technical support – rebound likely. ✅ Target for DXY: 121 zone. ✅ BTCUSD may face downside pressure as USD strengthens. ✅ MACD showing early signs of bullish reversal potential for DXY. Note: This is a technical analysis-based view. Always use risk management and combine multiple factors before trading decisions. For Educational purpose only. 💬 What are your thoughts? Will the USD rally put pressure on Bitcoin again? Share below!
TVC:DXY
by shekharvsingh1
3 key reasons why the U.S. dollar is losing value📉 According to J.P. Morgan, here are 3 key reasons why the U.S. dollar is losing value: 1️⃣ Oil and energy deals are now being done in other currencies 2️⃣ U.S. banks are excluded from new global payment systems 3️⃣ Countries are reducing their USD reserves The world is slowly shifting away from dollar dependence... #USD #DollarDecline #JPMorgan #ForexNews #DeDollarization #OilTrade #CurrencyShift #GlobalEconomy #SmartMoney #FXForever #MarketUpdate #ForexTraders #USDBreakdown #EconomicTrends #GlobalFinance
TVC:DXYShort
by FXFOREVER_87
DOLLAR INDEX The dxy is the measure of the united state dollar relative to basket of six majors foreign currencies, it was originally developed by U.S Federal Reserve in 1973 to provide a trade -weighted average value of the dollar against global currencies. the six currencies are EURO 57%,JPY 13.6%,GBP 11.9%,CAD 9.1% SEK 4.2% CHF 3.6% The index rises when the dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens ,its used to gauge the overall strength of the us dollar in the global market. US10Y THE US10Y ,the treasury note yield is the interest rate the U.S government pays to borrow money for 10 years ,it serves as a crucial benchmark for other interest rates and is a key indicator of the investor sentiment about the economy, in context it reflects the return an investor expect for lending money to the U.S. government for a decade . the interest is paid semi annually at a fixed coupon rate and the yield moves inversely to bond price; when bond price fall the yield rises, and vice versa . this have a direct effect on borrowing cost across the economy ,including mortgage rates and corporate loans . when yield is rising investor optimism is high about the economic growth and inflation ,while failing yield indicates economic caution and recession fear and concern technical interpretation of the monthly chart the dxy is in buy back position on ascending trendline line ,but price remains below supply roof and if we get monthly retest of broken demand floor we could see price selling off. trading is 100% probability.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
3
DOLLAR INDEX TRADING CHEACK LIST. The dxy is the measure of the united state dollar relative to basket of six majors foreign currencies, it was originally developed by U.S Federal Reserve in 1973 to provide a trade -weighted average value of the dollar against global currencies. the six currencies are EURO 57%,JPY 13.6%,GBP 11.9%,CAD 9.1% SEK 4.2% CHF 3.6% The index rises when the dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens ,its used to gauge the overall strength of the us dollar in the global market. US10Y THE US10Y ,the treasury note yield is the interest rate the U.S government pays to borrow money for 10 years ,it serves as a crucial benchmark for other interest rates and is a key indicator of the investor sentiment about the economy, in context it reflects the return an investor expect for lending money to the U.S. government for a decade . the interest is paid semi annually at a fixed coupon rate and the yield moves inversely to bond price; when bond price fall the yield rises, and vice versa . this have a direct effect on borrowing cost across the economy ,including mortgage rates and corporate loans . when yield is rising investor optimism is high about the economic growth and inflation ,while failing yield indicates economic caution and recession fear and concern technical interpretation of the monthly chart the dxy is in buy back position on ascending trendline line ,but price remains below supply roof and if we get monthly retest of broken demand floor we could see price selling off. trading is 100% probability.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
1