Nasdaq prepares for the reboundNasdaq index might be supported after AI-narrative getting back to the markets fueled by NVDA’s better than expected earnings for Q1 2025. The position of the price is close to the 20-day moving average, which makes a trade location potentially good for starting the upswing to the target area of $22,000.
Traders will watch the publication of ISM Manufacturing index on Monday, as it has some correlation with S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and might strengthen or weaken the current “AI rebound narrative”.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, never forget to manage your risk at all times!
USTEC trade ideas
Recession post #9778Trial and error describes my past calls considering there was resistance and pullbacks on the daily tf but this time I'm certain
abso-tut-ely
Posi-tively
Demise
Trumps attempts have played out like a witty protagonist of a finance suspense thriller but that has nothing to do with the historical alignments of boom and bust systems. I think he intended to crash markets so it could recover but I'm not convinced this tank is greater than this
NAS100 at Risk of Breaking Lower Amid Mixed Signals and End-of-MThe NAS100 is showing signs of weakness, with a clear daily pinbar candle signaling potential downside reversal. After a strong rally, the index appears overextended and vulnerable to a technical retracement. End-of-month profit-taking is likely adding pressure, as traders lock in gains and rebalance portfolios.
Uncertainty around reciprocal tariffs is also weighing on sentiment. Comments from U.S. officials, including Bessent, emphasize the need for renewed dialogue with China—highlighting unresolved tensions that could escalate. These trade concerns are surfacing just as the market is priced for optimism, increasing the risk of a pullback.
From a technical perspective, the daily pinbar near recent highs indicates a rejection of upward momentum. If confirmed with a break below the recent low, a move toward 20,400 or even the 50-day moving average could follow.
Seasonal flows and shifting sentiment may further limit upside in the short term. Any risk-off tone from global headlines or softer macro data could accelerate the move lower. Until the index clears resistance with conviction, the bias may now tilt to the downside. Traders should watch for follow-through signals and consider tightening stops.
Falling towards pullback support?NAS100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 20,809.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 20,352.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 21,779.63
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NAS100 4H | Fibonacci Bounce or Break? Key Trendline Test Incomi📈 Description:
Price is currently testing a key ascending trendline on the 4H, sitting just below the 38.2% Fib retracement after rejecting near the 0% level. I’m watching this area closely for either:
✅ A bullish bounce from the 38.2%–50% zone with confluence from EMA 20 and trendline support — targeting 0% then -27% extensions (around 21,750 to 22,200),
or
❌ A clean break and close below the trendline + 61.8% level that could shift short bias toward deeper Fib zones like 78.6% or even 100%.
Indicators Used:
• EMA 20 / EMA 68 for dynamic S/R
• Fibonacci retracement (swing low to recent high)
• Trendline (4H structure support)
🧠 I’ll wait for clear structure before entering — no early entries here. Looking for a strong engulfing candle, MA crossover, or lower-timeframe breakout confirmation depending on the direction.
📍Will update if we get confluence on the 15min/1hr to support entry.
H&S Watch! Pullback Toward 18.4K Likely, POC at 15K is Critical!This chart presents a comprehensive technical and macro assessment of the NASDAQ 100 (US100) using the daily timeframe. The focal point is a developing Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, currently unconfirmed, but well-formed with strong structural and momentum confluence.
🧠 Thought Process & Structure
The chart reveals a potential H&S pattern with the right shoulder forming just below 22,200. While the neckline at 18,400 has not broken yet, several signals support the idea of a short-term pullback:
Bearish RSI divergence from the recent high
Stochastic crossovers on both daily and weekly timeframes from overbought levels
A large unfilled gap near 18,400 that is likely to act as a magnet
Rather than predicting an immediate collapse, this analysis takes a probability-weighted approach and lays out both bullish and bearish outcomes clearly.
📉 Current Expectation: Pullback Toward 18,400
A move toward 18,400 is the base case. This level represents:
The neckline of the H&S structure
The location of Gap Fill Target 2
A prior demand zone from April 2025
A bounce here would not invalidate the pattern but could delay its confirmation. It’s also a valid level for a short-term long trade setup if buyers defend it strongly.
⚠️ Break Below 18,400: POC Zone Becomes Critical
Should 18,400 break decisively, the market could test the Point of Control (POC) around 15,000. This zone:
Has the highest historical volume concentration
Aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Marks the new measured move target of the Head & Shoulders pattern
In short, 15,000 becomes the most critical structural and psychological support. If it fails, deeper risk reopens.
🔻 Deeper Move Scenarios (Now Less Likely)
Previous versions of this chart targeted 10,500. That level is now considered outside the measured move and only becomes viable if:
15,000 fails to hold
Macro conditions deteriorate sharply (e.g., inflation remains sticky, Fed turns hawkish, or recession triggers a risk-off rotation)
At this time, such an extended move is low probability.
📈 Bullish Invalidation
A breakout above 22,200 with strong volume would invalidate the entire bearish pattern. This would suggest bullish continuation and open the door to 24,000 and beyond. This scenario is also plotted on the chart and clearly labeled.
🧭 Trading Plan
Monitor for rejection or bounce at 18,400
If it holds, long opportunity may develop
If it fails, prepare for POC test at 15,000
Only consider deeper targets if breakdown volume is strong
Invalidate bearish outlook if price closes decisively above 22,200
📅 Macro Events to Watch (June–July 2025)
June 6 – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
June 11 – CPI Report (May)
June 17–18 – FOMC Meeting
June 26 – Final Q1 GDP
June 27 – PCE Inflation
July 3 – June Employment Report
July 15 – June CPI
July 30 – FOMC Meeting #5 & Q2 GDP Advance Estimate
These events could act as triggers for either confirming or invalidating the current technical setup.
✅ Summary
This is a developing setup — not a confirmed breakdown. The current expectation is a pullback toward 18,400, with a potential bounce. If that support fails, the 15,000 POC becomes the key level to watch. The measured move of the H&S pattern now targets 15,000 — not 10,500. Deeper downside should only be considered if strong macro or volume-based catalysts emerge.
This approach allows for flexibility, clarity, and trade planning without bias. Let the chart prove itself — and be ready either way.
nasdaq : waiting for take the sell stopsThere’s an FVG on the 4H timeframe in Nasdaq,
which indicates strong momentum—likely aiming to hunt some lows.
If the price takes out the specific low I’ve marked,
I’ll watch how the candles react around that area.
If the reaction isn’t strong,
then I’ll start considering a bullish scenario
and look for a potential long setup.
US100 Not yet ready for ATH - Structural BreakdownHere’s a detailed breakdown of the US Tech 100 - NASDAQ on the daily chart and why a lift off to ATHs may not be in play just yet.
✅ Key imbalance zones mapped out
🔻 Expecting downside clean-up before upside continuation
📊 FVGs & inefficiencies stacked below = high-probability revisit zones
If you’re trading NASDAQ, this map could be your cheat sheet before price makes its real move.
The market is respecting the ascending channel, but I’m expecting a cleanup of inefficiencies stacked below before any major continuation. Keep an eye on the key zones marked — price may revisit these areas for liquidity.
📉 Possible short-term correction
📈 Bias still bullish, but not without some pain first
Happy Trading !
Short US100Think we see a move up to the 0.786 fib level from the recent highs with a rejection down further if more blocks or doubt is cast on the new trade deals and tariffs.
TP would be the weekly lows
Bearish thoughts
- The fundamentals of the tariffs deals are getting challenged
- A bit more aggressiveness from china and we might see a move down
- Daily MACD is pointing down suggesting downward pressure which we are seeing on hourly chart
Bullish structure remains on the 4hr chart
NAS100 BEARISH FOR 35,532 TICKS1. Understanding the Target (35,532 Ticks)
1 tick in NAS100 (CFD/Futures) typically represents 0.25 index points (varies by broker).
35,532 ticks = 35,532 × 0.25 = 8,883 points.
This suggests a long-term bullish outlook if starting from current levels (~18,000-19,000).
2. Key Analysis for NAS100 Forecast
Trend: NAS100 is strongly influenced by tech stocks (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, etc.) and Fed policy.
Support Levels:
Major support at 18,000-18,500 (2024 consolidation zone).
Resistance Levels:
19,500-20,000 (ATH zone).
21,000-22,000 (next psychological barrier).
3. Take Profit (TP) Strategy
If entering a long position (assuming bullish trend continuation):
Short-term TP: 19,500 (scalping).
Medium-term TP: 20,500-21,000 (swing trade).
Long-term TP (35,532 ticks): ~26,883 (if starting from 18,000).
If entering a short position (unlikely given bullish bias):
TP at key supports (17,500 or lower).
4. Risk Management
Use stop-loss (SL) below key support (e.g., 17,800 for longs).
Position sizing: Risk ≤1-2% per trade.
5. Conclusion
Bullish Case: If NAS100 breaks 20,000, the 35,532-tick (8,883-point) target could be possible in a strong bull run.
Bearish Case: Unlikely unless major crash (Fed tightening/geopolitical crisis).
US 100 – Further Moves Await NVIDIA Earnings UpdateGlobal stock indices have reacted positively at the start of this new trading week to President Trump’s decision to extend a deadline which would impose a tariff of 50% on EU goods imported into the US from June 1st to July 9th.
Taken alongside a new willingness being signalled from the EU side to speed the negotiating process along in key areas, means trader hopes have increased that a deal between the first and third largest of the world’s economies can be agreed in principle within the allotted time.
Focusing on US stock indices, the US 100 has risen 2.4% this week, taking it only a small step away from its recent highs at 21493 seen on May 20th. However, later today, the rally is about to face possibly its biggest challenge of the week in the form of earnings from the second biggest company on the planet ($3.3 trillion mkt cap) and AI bellwether NVIDIA, which are released after the market close.
Traders will not only be looking to judge company’s actual performance against expectations but will be eager to receive updates on the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on future revenue, chip deals with the Middle East, competition and its outlook for AI demand moving forward.
Answers to these questions and others may well impact sentiment towards technology stocks and the US 100 moving into the end of the week, and month, on Friday.
With increased volatility a possibility, knowing the technical outlook can also be helpful.
Technical Update: Focus on the May Highs at 21493
While last week did see correction themes develop within the US 100 index, there appears to be no clear-cut signs of a negative sentiment shift yet, as fresh buying developed above support provided by the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 20772 (see chart below).
However, looking forward, if the NVIDIA earnings prompt an increase in US 100 price volatility, what are the levels traders may be watching for clues to the next directional themes?
Potential Support Levels:
It is possible the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 20772, represents a first support for traders, and as such, closing breaks below this level might lead to a more extended phase of price weakness.
Such moves while not a guarantee of declines, could lead to a deeper sell-off towards 20001, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April 21st to May 20th 2025 price strength.
Potential Resistance Levels:
With this week seeing fresh price strength emerge from above the rising Bollinger mid-average, a positive price pattern of higher highs and higher lows, may still be evident. This reflects buyers currently being willing to pay higher prices, each time a setback materialises.
However, to maintain this uptrend pattern in price, the focus could now be on resistance provided by the May high at 21493 (May 20th), with closing breaks above this level required to suggest further strength might then be on the cards, towards what could prove to be the next potential resistance level at 22226, which is the February 18th 2025 all-time high.
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NASDAQ Markup- Not in the Trade, But the Lesson's ClearDidn’t take this one—not trading NASDAQ right now—but I still mapped it out from the 30M perspective just to stay sharp.
4H gave bullish intent after breaking the major macro LH, so I followed the flow.
Saw a clean 30M inducement sweep, price then mitigated internal structure OB, and I marked exactly where I would’ve entered with LTF confirmation.
Didn’t trade it, but the logic’s there—and if you’ve been watching… you already know what it’s doing now. 🧠📈
Every setup teaches something.
– Inducement King
Bless Trading!