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LNGU2025 trade ideas

Smart Money Trapping RetailThis is a great example of why you trade with the trend and stay away from counter trend moves. I’ve kept the chart basic with only a 50 ema that is pegged to the one hour candle as that is a good short term trend indicator. My question is this. Did smart money pile into this trade to drive the price up to the 50 ema to trap all the retail traders only to create the liquidity they needed to put on large positions and trap retail which is then forced to sell out of their losing positions? I have no idea but this seems to be a repeatable pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!
by andrewtreilly
1
Will there be a 50 percent increase in the price of natural gas?Will there be a 50 percent increase in the price of natural gas? The imposition of tariffs also has an effect on the price of natural gas, which has fallen dramatically since Trump announced his policy of reciprocal tariffs and the trade war has intensified. In general, there have been significant declines in natural gas futures, with a drop of about 10 percent in value. The magnitude of this drop is due to fears that the ongoing global trade war could lead to a reduction in industrial activity and gas demand. The Trump administration has created many waves of concern and economic instability around the world. The trade tariffs imposed by the president have affected not only finished goods, but also the raw materials used to create them. With the addition of Chinese taxes on U.S. products, the situation has become even more uncertain, with the risk of a global recession increasingly imminent. The trade war has had a significant impact on the global economy, with increased tariffs leading to higher prices for goods. This in turn has reduced demand and produced a decrease in industrial production and overall growth. Experts also predict a possible reduction in production in energy-intensive sectors, as market uncertainties may lead to lower energy needs in the future. There are several factors that could affect gas supply and related prices in the coming years. One of these is the increase in oil production starting in May. In addition, changes to storage targets in Europe are expected, which could further increase gas supply. At the same time, more liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe are expected due to lower demand from China. All this could keep gas prices low in both Europe and the United States. Since the announcement of the duties, many companies have already begun publicly discussing possible shutdowns and production reductions. With the ongoing trade war, these decisions could become a reality. But it could also be good news for prices. As we all know, the tariff war is likely to end soon. This means that with the closure of the fields-which take at least 3 years to reopen-we could see limited gas supply during the summer, when peak demand is expected and unusual heat is expected, this will be very good for natural gas prices. From a technical point of view, this asset is one of the few to keep prices above the 200-period moving average. In addition, the rises of the past few months are supported by above-average volumes. Natural gas supply is currently below average, which is a positive sign for strengthening prices. In such an unstable market, I have decided to invest in natural gas and expect prices to reach $5 in the summer, with a possible 50% growth. It is important to emphasize the gas futures curve, which is currently backwardation in the long run. When there is strong demand, markets tend to reduce contango and even invert the curve to backwardation. The backwardation curve can be theoretically unlimited, that is, the price differential between near and far maturities can continue to grow indefinitely.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
NATGAS Local Bearish Pullback Expected! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS is about to hit A strong horizontal resistance Level of 3.880$ after a sharp Push upwards by the bulls So a local correction is needed From the resistance with the Expected target being the Local level below at 3.655$ Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
NATGAS Expected Growth! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the NATGAS next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 3.541 Bias - Bullish Safe Stop Loss - 3.373 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 3.834 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
1
NATGAS Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The market is trading on 3.819 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 3.970 Recommended Stop Loss - 3.740 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
2
NATGAS Resistance Cluster Above! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS made a bearish Breakout of the support Cluster of the rising and Horizontal support levels Which is now a resistance Cluster round 3.717$ then Went down and made a local Pullback on Thursday and Friday but we are bearish Biased mid-term so we Will be expecting a further Bearish move down this week Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
Natural Gas Retests Trendline – Compression BuildingNatural Gas is approaching apex compression, holding above an ascending trendline while capped by a descending trendline from March highs. Price is testing the 50 EMA at $3.83 with a key horizontal level at $3.75 in focus. A break below could trigger downside to $3.43. On the flip side, a breakout above $4.00 could open a run toward $4.24. RSI at 37 supports ongoing consolidation with a bearish lean. Summary: ⚠️ Neutral bias in play. Watch for breakout above $4.00 for long, or breakdown below $3.75 for short toward $3.43.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by alibfx
Nat Gas Report 3/29/25: Can you shoulder the shoulder? Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil, then eventually Gasoline. As discussed, a few weeks ago this constant movement in energy trades keeps the asset allocations inline with seasonal trends in energy usage and the funds fat and happy. But this year we have the ultimate monkey in the works, true market dynamics! Although with the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs starting this coming Wednesday, 4/2/25, the market once again is on edge with the unknown unknowns! As the broad equity market has sold off this quarter, we have seen a movement into commodities, especially NG (sorry Gold bugs!). The underlying weakness in global oil demand, and the inability for oil producing nations and majors to temper supply has led to a glut in worldwide crude stockpiling. Yesterday’s Crude Oil COT report showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (an increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061. This is not a common seasonal response in the Oil markets. Normally the December to May timeframe is a season of oil accumulation by major traders and the petro industry. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. But with softness in the overall global markets, downward revisions in GDP, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the big electrification to the transportation sector. There is a bearish undertone to the global oil and gasoline market this year. Remember what was discussed. The global nature of institutional energy traders is to trade crude in the spring (as NG sells off), gasoline in the summer (as oil sells off), NG in the fall (as diesel sells off), and diesel/heating oil in the winter (as gasoline sells off). This round robing of trades allows the savvy trader to expect entry and exit points, or to determine the overall direction of seasonal trends. But throw that out this year! The past few months NG and Oil have been trading inversely with each other, almost to the dollar! So, that leaves us with a tremendous amount of allocated worldwide capital in the one energy trade left. NG! But, not without merit! Natural Gas has a tremendous amount of underlying fundamental support. Lower than normal storage (currently 6.5% below 5-yer average), increasing power generation demand, increasing exports via pipeline to Mexico, increasing LNG export (currently hit a record at 16.7 BCF/d this week and expected to hit 18 BCF/d next month), and stagnant production (NG rig count down 9% y/y, oil down 4.5% y/y). The producers have finally understood that producing too much NG will probably affect the price in a negative way. Last week’s energy conference in Houston, TX had one general theme from all the energy majors. Supply restraint/discipline and an increase in infrastructure. There must have been some concerted effort, because the catch phrase all week was not “Drill baby Drill” but “Build baby Build” The discussion was that Trump’s lowering of barriers for pipeline construction and LNG export facilities is what is going to give them a reason to drill. But, for the time being they need takeaway capacity. They will continue to keep rigs out of the field until that happens. Imports from Canada are at a 2-year low, due to the increase in heating demand in Canada, due to the SSW event taking hold up north. Increasing demand, stagnant production = higher prices! Weather related demand has decreased with the unusually warm March. But the SSW event is now affecting Canada. If not for the main Pacific Teleconnection, the EPO, this cold bottled up in Canada would have brought seasonal temperature to the US. But!!!!!!! Now the EPO(negative) Teleconnection is aligning with the SSW event and the models over the past week have been printing colder. I expect the month of April to end up below average. Which could possibly lead to one, maybe to more storage withdrawals, outside the withdrawal season. As of earlier this week, April is now projected to end the storage deficit created during the withdrawal season. But if we can head into the month of May with a continued deficit, we can expect elevated prices for the summer strip. The summer forecasts are currently coming out, which is showing dry and hot conditions from the Rockies west to the Mississippi River. The current storage deficit in the South Central region (-10.5%) and the Midwest (-16.2%), will be the main driver for price appreciation due to weather related issues. Years that had a SSW event in the months of March and April, statistically have very hot May and June months that follow. This kick start to the summer cooling season is another reason for the predicted elevated prices this summer. This is not 2024! Do not expect for historic low process to return, bar a pandemic or a worldwide global recession. There will be price volatility, but not a complete dropping of the floor price. Near term pricing: Ever since moving above the 100D SMA back at the end of December the 50D SMA has held up wonderfully as support during last four months. Since Tuesday the 50D SMA has continued to hold, except for a brief 12 hour period, but the price showed bullish support by retracing, touching and bouncing back off. The weekly low bounced off the lower SD of the BB. This another bullish conformation. The weekly low dropped below the 38.2% fib level and reclaimed upward momentum, another bullish sign, only to move up past the 50% fib level. The psychological 4000 level, another bullish indicator. When technical and fundamentals align, we should pay close attention and listen! I am watching 4170, 4252, and 4316 for my immediate term resistance levels. If 4316 is broken, the upper BB SD and the 78.6% swing retracement level 4570 is next. For support, 3953, 3854, 3729. If there is a break below the 3729 then the 23.6% swing retracement level at 3560 would be up next. I am of the belief that the market is expected to travel higher. But there are many reasons for continued range bound days. So, I will be setting these levels to range trade until I see an indication for otherwise. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGK2025
by NrG_Trader
3