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TGCN1! trade ideas

Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means: I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer. According to seasonality, the low should occur around September. Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns. IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high. IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top. I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by p4917
1
Is an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Forming? Fundamental Snapshot Crop Progress Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed further declining crop conditions. Good/Excellent conditions for soybeans were down 1%, to 59%, which was in line with expectations. However, corn G/E ratings fell 3%, to 58%, 2% lower than expectations. Private Estimates DTN released their yield estimates for corn and soybeans yesterday afternoon, and boy were they bullish. They have the national average corn yield at 167.2 bushels per acre, well below the USADA’s July estimate of 177. We have been assuming the market has been trading 174-175. DTN’s estimate for soybean yield comes in at 48.9, well below the USDA’s 51.5. As with corn, we’ve been assuming the market is trading closer to 50bpa. WASDE Estimates Reuters has complied estimates for Friday’s WASDE report. The average analyst estimate for corn yield is 175.9, with production at 14.392. The average estimate for soybean yield is 51.1, with production at 4.481. Corn (September): September corn futures got some friendly news yesterday afternoon which helped propel prices back to technical resistance. The last few times we have been up at this level we moved our bias back into bearish territory, but with a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming and a WASDE report looming, we are keeping our bias Neutral. A breakout and close above 628-632 could open the door for an extension towards 650. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 628-632***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 600 Support: 580 ¾-586 ¼****, 561 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
1
Corn Fills the Gap (partially) Fundamental Snapshot Weekly Export Sales Corn: Net sales of 57,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 62 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 256,700 MT were reported for 2022/2023. Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 11,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down 81 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 410,600 MT were reported for 2022/2023. Wheat: Net sales of 249,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Ukraine Production Ukraine’s Prime Minister said on Wednesday that their harvest could be in the ballpark of 65-67 million tonnes. This would be a decline of roughly 20% from the previous year, which all things considered doesn’t sound too bad. Ukraine Exports There are 17 more vessels ready to leave ports in Ukraine, but there has not been a timeline established for departures. Those involved with the export deal have noted that it may take a few weeks for things to start picking up. Technical Landscape Corn Technicals (September): Corn futures worked into the gap yesterday, which we used as our 4-star support pocket, 580 ¾-586 ¼. Though the gap was not all the way filled, the price action was friendly enough to move our short-term bias back into bullish territory. A break and close below that support pocket would likely move our bias back into bearish territory as it could take us back to the July 22nd low, 561 ¼. Upside objectives for the Bulls; 6.00. If the market can achieve consecutive closes back above $6.00 we could see a retest of our first resistance pocket, 624-630. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 600 Support: 580 ¾-586 ¼****, 561 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
ZC / Corn futures ZC / CORN FUTURES About FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS. ---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying. 1-The Ukrainian war. 2- - dehydration. 3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation. About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS --- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets. About Psycho- --- The short sellers start to take their money from CORN market because of a psycho- demand zone.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Gassem_futures
Corn Futures Firm Corn Technicals (September): September corn futures didn’t see much follow-through early in the overnight session but are firming up this morning, taking out yesterday’s highs. Previous resistance is now support, that comes in from 586-589. If the Bulls can continue to defend this pocket, we could see an extension of the relief rally take us to the 624-630 area. This pocket represents many previously important price points as well as the 200-day moving average. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 586-589 Support: 574 ¼-579 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Recover Friday's Losses Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,871 futures/options contracts through July 19th. 24,916 of this was long liquidation, just 955 were new short positions. This shrinks their net long position to 125,303 contracts. Broken down that is 202,400 longs VS 77,097 shorts. Fundamentals: Corn futures had another rough week, with the December contract losing 39 ½ cents. Cooler and wetter forecasts working their way into 1-2 week forecast didn’t offer any support. Russia and Ukraine signed a deal on Friday that would open up Ukrainian ports. There were skeptics out of the gate and now even more as Russia bombed Odessa Saturday morning. The strike didn’t appear to have damaged any grain storage, but it certainly doesn’t help build confidence that the agreement will stand. Technicals (September): Corn futures are rebounding this morning, erasing the losses from Friday’s session. Friday morning, we moved our bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. The Bulls want to see a conviction close out above our pivot pocket, 574 ¼-579 ¼, to help encourage additional upward momentum towards our resistance pocket, 586-589. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 586-589****, 624-630***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 574 ¼-579 ¼ Support: 542 ¼-547 ¾*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Trades to Lowest Price Since the Start of the YearCorn Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 33,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. -Net sales of 570,200 MT for 2022/2023 Techncials: Corn futures have broken below our 4-star support pocket from 586-589, taking out the lows from July 5th and 6th. This is now at the lowest trading level since January 24th. Our next support pocket is also being tested this morning, we've had that defined as 574 1/4-579 1/4. This level area was a big resistance area at the end of last year and beginning of this year. The RSI (relative strength index is at 30.8, a hair above what would be considered "oversold". Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½*** Pivot: 586-589 Support: 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Finishing Intermediate Wave 4 with Bearish Seasonality Corn is currently in minor wave D or E of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once corn breaks out of the triangle, it will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 521'0 (0.618 Fibonacci level) area for December corn, possibly lower. This is also happening during the summer months when corn prices typically decrease. If you bought corn on July 19 and sold corn on December 3 every year for the past 15 years, you would have lost money for 10 of those years (66.66%). Volatility may remain high during the Russia-Ukraine war, but the price trend is down.
CBOT:ZCZ2022Short
by epistemophiliac
Corn Futures well since last year there has been a 225% increase to the price of corn when I started looking at this chart back in sept of 2021 last year- through november the price has risen 65% in 3 months - with the price rising to 225% in a mere 11 months--- meaning in the next 5 years corn will be over 3300 dollars usd in value the government doesnt need to create a demand for corn--they need to create inscentives for farmers to produce more food and in large scale of farmer---our farms and crops shouldnt fail to produce and income either---with the price of diesel acting better than gold itself---its no wonder farmers arent pulling out there hair more often. I am neutral but I know it will rise within the next 11-13 months so do as you choose- farmers traders and investors. The government is trying to make us all poor and dependant on the gov itself while bitcoin is trying to fix the bad within the world you have surrounding countries like india wanting to ban crypto when they were just given 80 billion dollars from crypto lol --- crypto doesnt need to change the gov needs to stop hurting the dollar- and the tax bill needs to scrapped in every country within the world--- its really bad and sickening that the government wants us to be dependant on them--- when they dont even control money now since the creation of bitcoin its taken 13 years to plant the seed of doubt- and now the government is trying to squeeze us all out of exsistance - by increasing taxes and creating more inflation for the public why yes they are paid healthy every year atleast 100 000 dollars for an average government job --- what happens when 100 k isnt enough and the dollar is shit and your stuck in 80 trillion debt what happens then @whitehouse
CBOT:ZC1!
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd
Will technical support hold? Corn Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,073,972 metric tons, right in line with what we saw for the same week last year, 1,076,668 metric tons. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, unchanged from the previous week. Iowa leads the way with a rating of 81%. Illinois had the biggest weekly gain of +4%, that puts them at 70% G/E. 37% of the crop is silking. Technicals (September): Corn futures made a run at 4-star resistance yesterday but fizzled out and finished the day close to where we gaped higher on Sunday night. Futures are lower this morning as some forecasts improve. This has dropped prices within a stone’s throw of 4-star support, 586-589. Our bias remains in Neutral territory. We continue believe there will continue to be short term opportunities on both sides of the market as weather continues to have an implication on day-to-day gyrations. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 627 3/4-631 3/4****, 645-652 ½***, 678 ¼-684 ½** Support: 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Risk-On!It's a risk-on day in the outside markets with many sectors catching a tailwind on a softening U.S. dollar. Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 21,693 contracts, shrinking their net long position to 151,174 contracts. Broken down, 16,972 was long liquidation and 4,721 were new shorts. Technicals: Corn futures opened higher and turned negative last night. That weakness has turned into strength this morning with a nice tailwind from a weaker U.S. dollar and in turn stronger commodity markets. The first meaningful resistance pocket for September futures doesn't come in until 627 3/4-631 3/4. Our bias was moved to neutral last week, stating our belief that there will be great opportunities for participants on both sides. If the market makes it to resistance, we would consider moving our short-term bias back into bearish territory. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 627 3/4-631 3/4****, 645-652 ½***, 678 ¼-684 ½** Support: 586-589****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn, Commitment of traders, US Dollar, and Corn open interest: An abundance of drivers influencing the Ag markets. Together the Funds and Commercials create a very liquid environment that trends up, down, or sideways. During certain times of extreme macro and/or fundamental influences their combined forces move away from a market looking for fair value to a market driven by fear. Fear can cause strong trending moves higher and lower. But when the marketplace is severely spooked, the funds and commercials seem to completely leave the markets and can do so for an extended period of time. The 95’ short crop caught a lot of HTA (hedge to arrive) bag holders off guard. The HTA debacle and the Rising US Dollar (dot com bust liquidity drain) spooked the market makers enough to drop Open Interest to a very low area from the late 90’s to mid 2000’s. This created a very unwelcoming market structure for corn trading mostly in the lower $2.00 area. I share this to illustrate just one example of how outside influences greatly affect Ag commodities. I hear a lot about recessions pulling money from stocks and into commodities. Sometimes that is the case, but scared money can sit on the sidelines for some time. Too much is going on in the world and capital flows are abnormal. I don’t know where any of these markets are going but it sure seems that for the moment money is moving to the sidelines in many markets…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
1
Chop, ChopCorn Fundamentals: Consolidation continues to be the name of the game, which was actually encouraging yesterday morning when many other commodity markets were full on risk-off. To us, that indicated good underlying near term strength in the market as we inch closer to the weekend. Technicals (September): Not much has changed on the technical landscape over the last two and a half sessions. The market is continuing to linger near the middle of our support and resistance pockets. Our bias is outright neutral as we think there will continue to be short term trading opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. We would be looking to flip our bias into bearish territory against resistance and bullish territory against support. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 624-630*, 645-652 ½, 678 ¼-684 ½ Support: 586-589, 574 ¼-579 ¼** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine