corn (edible) zc1! | gap fillnice div loooking to confirm on 3d. tapped oversold. huge gap above.
think this could run up.
TGCN1! trade ideas
Chinese Data Sends Grain Markets LowerFundamental Snapshot
China
Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down over 3%, just to name a few.
U.S. Dollar
The US Dollar is firming on the back of poor Chinese data, continuing the relief rally from Friday. The U.S. dollar was able to defend 105, which was previous resistance in May and June and the eventual breakout point in July. If the dollar continues to rally, it could be a headwind to some commodities.
Weather
Weater throughout the Midwest looks cooler and wetter for the next 1-2 weeks. For some problem areas, it may be too little too late. The conversation around weather will be shifting to South America in the coming weeks as they begin planting.
Corn
December corn futures "broke out" above resistance on Friday which took prices to the 50-day moving average and our next resistance, 640 1/2. Futures are weaker this morning, giving back all of the gains from Friday and then some. This takes prices back to trendline support. A failure to defend this area could open the door for a retest of the psychologically significant $6.00 handle.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 638-643**, 650-655***
Pivot: 620
Support: 584 ¼-587 ½***, 561 ¾**, 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Corn Gains Ground Ahead of Tomorrow's WASSDE Report
Fundamental Snapshot
WASDE Estimates
Reuters has complied estimates for Friday’s WASDE report. The average analyst estimate for corn yield is 175.9, with production at 14.392. The average estimate for soybean yield is 51.1, with production at 4.481. Over the years, the August report has been known to offer big surprises to the market.
Weekly Export Sales
Corn: Net sales of 191,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 191,300 MT for 2022/2023 were reported.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 66,700 MT for 2021/2022. Net sales of 477,200 MT for 2022/2023.
Wheat: Net sales of 359,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 44 percent from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Corn
December corn futures have been testing the upper end of the recent range for the past 2 ½ sessions, that comes in near 625-630. This pocket also contains the 200-day moving average. If the Bulls rea able to chew through this pocket we could see an extension towards 650, which is both psychologically significant and technically significant. A move out above there could spark a bigger directional move, until then we continue to believe there will be plenty of short-term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 625-630***, 640 ½**, 650-655***
Pivot: 600
Support: 584 ¼-587 ½***, 561 ¾**, 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Futures A small update on the corn futures possible breakout of a channel. We have even more confirmation of a channel now, with a total of 6 obvious points, 3 on each side of channel. The breakout of the channel should result in a big movement, I personally believe, it will be a shortside trade, however, we must wait for confirmation before making any major decisions.
Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means:
I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer.
According to seasonality, the low should occur around September.
Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns.
IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high.
IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top.
I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
Corn Futures Channel Possible Breakout Possible breakout either side of the corn futures channel that I have created. As you can see there have been multiple touches on the channel on the upside and downside. Once the stock decides to breakout of the channel, there is possibility for either a long or short position of the stock. The target should be the a movement of half of the size of the channel either upwards or downwards depending on the breakout situation.
Is an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Forming? Fundamental Snapshot
Crop Progress
Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed further declining crop conditions. Good/Excellent conditions for soybeans were down 1%, to 59%, which was in line with expectations. However, corn G/E ratings fell 3%, to 58%, 2% lower than expectations.
Private Estimates
DTN released their yield estimates for corn and soybeans yesterday afternoon, and boy were they bullish. They have the national average corn yield at 167.2 bushels per acre, well below the USADA’s July estimate of 177. We have been assuming the market has been trading 174-175. DTN’s estimate for soybean yield comes in at 48.9, well below the USDA’s 51.5. As with corn, we’ve been assuming the market is trading closer to 50bpa.
WASDE Estimates
Reuters has complied estimates for Friday’s WASDE report. The average analyst estimate for corn yield is 175.9, with production at 14.392. The average estimate for soybean yield is 51.1, with production at 4.481.
Corn (September): September corn futures got some friendly news yesterday afternoon which helped propel prices back to technical resistance. The last few times we have been up at this level we moved our bias back into bearish territory, but with a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming and a WASDE report looming, we are keeping our bias Neutral. A breakout and close above 628-632 could open the door for an extension towards 650.
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 628-632***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 600
Support: 580 ¾-586 ¼****, 561 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Developing Running Triangle for Intermediate Wave 4It appears that corn is developing a running triangle for intermediate wave 4. Corn should eventually break out to the downside and reach the target of 521'0, the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Corn Fills the Gap (partially) Fundamental Snapshot
Weekly Export Sales
Corn: Net sales of 57,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 62 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 256,700 MT were reported for 2022/2023.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 11,000 MT for 2021/2022 were down 81 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 410,600 MT were reported for 2022/2023.
Wheat: Net sales of 249,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Ukraine Production
Ukraine’s Prime Minister said on Wednesday that their harvest could be in the ballpark of 65-67 million tonnes. This would be a decline of roughly 20% from the previous year, which all things considered doesn’t sound too bad.
Ukraine Exports
There are 17 more vessels ready to leave ports in Ukraine, but there has not been a timeline established for departures. Those involved with the export deal have noted that it may take a few weeks for things to start picking up.
Technical Landscape
Corn
Technicals (September): Corn futures worked into the gap yesterday, which we used as our 4-star support pocket, 580 ¾-586 ¼. Though the gap was not all the way filled, the price action was friendly enough to move our short-term bias back into bullish territory. A break and close below that support pocket would likely move our bias back into bearish territory as it could take us back to the July 22nd low, 561 ¼. Upside objectives for the Bulls; 6.00. If the market can achieve consecutive closes back above $6.00 we could see a retest of our first resistance pocket, 624-630.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 600
Support: 580 ¾-586 ¼****, 561 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ZC / Corn futures ZC / CORN FUTURES
About FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying.
1-The Ukrainian war.
2- - dehydration.
3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation.
About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets.
About Psycho-
--- The short sellers start to take their money from CORN market because of a psycho- demand zone.
Corn Futures Firm Corn
Technicals (September): September corn futures didn’t see much follow-through early in the overnight session but are firming up this morning, taking out yesterday’s highs. Previous resistance is now support, that comes in from 586-589. If the Bulls can continue to defend this pocket, we could see an extension of the relief rally take us to the 624-630 area. This pocket represents many previously important price points as well as the 200-day moving average.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 586-589
Support: 574 ¼-579 ¼**, 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Mini Trade for ZC! According to my analysis ,I think there is a High probability for the price to hit the level mentioned in the chart .So you can take this trade with low risk ,because we saw a Golden Point with a good volume that confirm our probability..
Corn Futures Recover Friday's Losses Corn
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,871 futures/options contracts through July 19th. 24,916 of this was long liquidation, just 955 were new short positions. This shrinks their net long position to 125,303 contracts. Broken down that is 202,400 longs VS 77,097 shorts.
Fundamentals: Corn futures had another rough week, with the December contract losing 39 ½ cents. Cooler and wetter forecasts working their way into 1-2 week forecast didn’t offer any support. Russia and Ukraine signed a deal on Friday that would open up Ukrainian ports. There were skeptics out of the gate and now even more as Russia bombed Odessa Saturday morning. The strike didn’t appear to have damaged any grain storage, but it certainly doesn’t help build confidence that the agreement will stand.
Technicals (September): Corn futures are rebounding this morning, erasing the losses from Friday’s session. Friday morning, we moved our bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. The Bulls want to see a conviction close out above our pivot pocket, 574 ¼-579 ¼, to help encourage additional upward momentum towards our resistance pocket, 586-589.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 586-589****, 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 574 ¼-579 ¼
Support: 542 ¼-547 ¾***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
ZC! STILL IN THE DOWNTREND 🌽Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my graphical analysis Of The ZC! FUTURES , there is a high probability of drop to the level mentionned in the coming period.
Corn Trades to Lowest Price Since the Start of the YearCorn
Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 33,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 43 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. -Net sales of 570,200 MT for 2022/2023
Techncials: Corn futures have broken below our 4-star support pocket from 586-589, taking out the lows from July 5th and 6th. This is now at the lowest trading level since January 24th. Our next support pocket is also being tested this morning, we've had that defined as 574 1/4-579 1/4. This level area was a big resistance area at the end of last year and beginning of this year. The RSI (relative strength index is at 30.8, a hair above what would be considered "oversold".
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 624-630***, 645-652 ½***
Pivot: 586-589
Support: 574 ¼-579 ¼***
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Corn Finishing Intermediate Wave 4 with Bearish Seasonality
Corn is currently in minor wave D or E of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once corn breaks out of the triangle, it will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 521'0 (0.618 Fibonacci level) area for December corn, possibly lower.
This is also happening during the summer months when corn prices typically decrease. If you bought corn on July 19 and sold corn on December 3 every year for the past 15 years, you would have lost money for 10 of those years (66.66%).
Volatility may remain high during the Russia-Ukraine war, but the price trend is down.
Corn Futures well since last year there has been a 225% increase to the price of corn when I started looking at this chart back in sept of 2021
last year- through november the price has risen 65% in 3 months - with the price rising to 225% in a mere 11 months--- meaning in the next 5 years corn will be over 3300 dollars usd in value
the government doesnt need to create a demand for corn--they need to create inscentives for farmers to produce more food and in large scale of farmer---our farms and crops shouldnt fail to produce and income either---with the price of diesel acting better than gold itself---its no wonder farmers arent pulling out there hair more often.
I am neutral but I know it will rise within the next 11-13 months so do as you choose- farmers traders and investors.
The government is trying to make us all poor and dependant on the gov itself while bitcoin is trying to fix the bad within the world you have surrounding countries like india wanting to ban crypto when they were just given 80 billion dollars from crypto lol --- crypto doesnt need to change the gov needs to stop hurting the dollar- and the tax bill needs to scrapped in every country within the world--- its really bad and sickening that the government wants us to be dependant on them--- when they dont even control money now since the creation of bitcoin its taken 13 years to plant the seed of doubt- and now the government is trying to squeeze us all out of exsistance - by increasing taxes and creating more inflation for the public why yes they are paid healthy every year atleast 100 000 dollars for an average government job --- what happens when 100 k isnt enough and the dollar is shit and your stuck in 80 trillion debt what happens then @whitehouse
