Corn: Buy, Sell, or Hold?Corn
Fundamentals: Outside markets are under significant pressure this morning, but corn futures have so far been able to brush that off. Hot and dry forecasts have some market participants concerned, keep in mind that hot and dry forecasts are not abnormal for this time of year. The weekly crop progress report will be out after the close. Corn is expected to be just shy of 100% planted. 100% of what will continue to be the ongoing debate. Good/Excellent ratings are expected to come in near 73%. Last year at this time the crop was rated 68% G/E.
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 7,108 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net long position to 239,592. Broken down, that is 307,876 longs VS 68,284 shorts.
Technicals (July): Corn futures had an impressive week, rallying and completing a full retracement of the May 31st/June1st selloff. If the Bulls can find some follow through momentum this week and chew through technical resistance, we could see an extension take prices back near $8.00. A failure to get out above 789 ½-790 ½ would mark a lower high, which would keep the door open for a potential lower low and a drop back to the 100-day moving average, 723 ½.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼***
Pivot: 769-773 ½
Support: 747-753****, 720-723 1/8****
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