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TGCN1! trade ideas

CORN - LONGBeen long a long time all commodities. The trend here has been tested and held. Q4 Commodities higher, inflation increasing, growth accelerating. Stay long commodities and buy these nice pullbacks for now. At some point, this will change but that signal is not yet. This is also forming nice wave pattern setup to go along with the data. Personally, I think yields will be way better than expected and this will weigh on price, but for now I will stay with the data.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by bitofamacroman
December 22' CornDecember 22 Corn - Weekly: From 2014-2020 Corn traded within a more definable market structure, 3.00-4.50(ish). During this time I would run previous years High to Low retracements on new crop contracts and place initial targets at retracements under 100% and hope to fill targets up to 127%. We are currently in the beginning stages of developing a new market structure where upside potential and downside risk is unmeasurable. So far we filled the 5.63 (141%) target, and close to the Primary target at 5.78. The 5.50 area is tough Support/Resistance as the most volume has occurred at this price. Support is 5.14. Risk is 4.80-4.62
CBOT:ZCZ2022
by mtb1980
March 22 CornMarch 22 Corn - Daily: March Corn broke above the downtrend line and filled a Major Primary target at 6.15 with its 6.17 high. Last week’s 5.93 close matches the pivot high we are currently using for retracement targets, and it is resting against a current uptrend line that began in mid October. Also, the Heaviest amount of volume by price is between 5.75 and 5.85. This should act as solid support if the current uptrend line is broken. A move above 6.17 will look for targets up to the next major target at 6.51. Support/risk below at 5.57.
CBOT:ZCH2022
by mtb1980
Big Picture look at Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. 2014-2020 that was a 3.75 base. If the Market went to far above or below 3.75, eventually it came back to it. Resistance above the 5.75 area at 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75+ is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Major Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Many 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
December 2022 CornDecember 22 Corn - Weekly: From 2014-2020 Corn traded within a more definable market structure. 3.00-4.50(ish). During this time I would run previous years High to Low retracements and place initial targets at retracements under 100% and hope to fill targets up to 127%. We are currently in the beginning stages of developing a new market structure where upside potential and downside risk is unmeasurable. Friday we hit the 5.63 target and now within a day’s move to catch the Primary target at 5.78. At 5.50-5.78 I think it is wise to be 10%-25% sold. **Price before Time** Look at adding Shor Dated (May-July)puts to protect elevated break evens. Support is 4.80-4.62. Risk below is wide open below
CBOT:ZCZ2022
by mtb1980
1
March22 CornMarch 22 Corn - Daily: Heaviest amount of volume between 5.75 and 5.85. This should act as good support or resistance as March takes the lead contract. Impressive intra-day recovery Friday. A break above $6.00 will have interest up to 6.15. Be careful of a bull trap in the 5.98-6.03 area. A quick move up and then close below the trend line would not look good. Support is the 5.57 pivot low. Further risk is the dashed trend line down to the 5.20 area. **Will run support targets once we get a confirmed swing high…
CBOT:ZCH2022
by mtb1980
December 21 CornDecember 21 Corn - Daily: Corn had all the potential to fail on Friday as the world Financial and Energy markets caved on the latest news on a new Covid Variant. After gapping lower and trading most of the day lower, buyers came in late and gave the Dec21 contract its highest daily close since July…. that seems bullish. Volume was decent/strong for a holiday. Who bought this? Dec/March spread narrowed and commercial end users have had a very strong basis as of late. Maybe some strong commercial interest. Will be interesting to see what Dec 21’ corn does after 1st notice. Remember what Corn did end of April into May when May expired. Big pump, followed by a big dump….. Don’t sit on this. Sell some physical and re own with a call if needed….
CBOT:ZCZ2021
by mtb1980
Big picture Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. Sensitive…. Resistance at the 5.75 area and then 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Most 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980