TGCN1! trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, /ZC, /ZSEARNINGS:
No earnings announcements this coming week in underlyings with highly liquid options with ideal rank/implied metrics (>70% rank/>50% 30-day implied).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (82/29)
GDX (74/33)
TLT (71/15)
GDXJ (60/37)
GLD (59/15)
XOP (35/37)
Precious metals ... again, with GDXJ offering the best volatility metrics (>50% rank/>35% 30-day implied)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (23/19)
SPY (13/13)
QQQ (11/18)
EEM (7/16)
EFA (15/11)
FUTURES:
/SI (82/28)
/UB (71/5)
/ZB (71/12)
/ZN (61/6)
/ZS (63/28)
/GC (59/15)
/ZC (52/28)
Pictured here is a corn short strangle in the October/40 days 'til expiry cycle with strikes camped out around the 1 standard deviation on the put side at 14 delta and the call side at the 13 delta strike, resulting in a delta neutral setup supposedly paying 4.00 at the mid price with break evens at 336 and 409. Naturally, that'll have to be priced out during regular market hours. There also may be some benefit in going out to November, where the implied volatility is at 25.3% versus October's 24.1% and where implied volatility contracts from there into winter and spring with February at 20.5% and April at 17.5%.
An alternative trade would be in October beans; the 830/990 short strangle paying 4.75 with the short put erected at the one standard deviation strike on the put side, the call at the equally delta'd strike on the call. For contrast: corn's implied volatility term structure: October -- 23.3%, November 17.8%, December 19.2%, February 16.6%, April 15.8%.
Naturally, either of these setups can be transformed into defined risk, iron condor trades by buying wings.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
Yowsa! VIX finished the week at sub-14 (13.74), so it's basically time to hand sit on what you put on in August volatility and wait for the next >20 pop to short.
$CORN - Also trading near TL supportCorn has had a big pullback and is now close to testing TL support.
ZCK2020-ZCU2019 - Commodity Spread Trading on Corn FuturesZCK2020-ZCU2019
Spreads on corn futures almost reaching Take Profit.
Spreads are one of the most profitable forms of trading there are thanks to the statistical advantage on the seasonality of commodities.
If done respecting the rules of operation, you get on average a Winrate of 87% with a Risk Reward of 2/1.
Joe Ross is my greatest master in this field.
Corn bottomed?Corn bounced right off the range I mentioned on my last idea, Aggressive traders might go long here but it's probably best to wait for MACD signal and further strength. Seasonally corn is Not bullish at this time of the year, so it's best to be careful with longs
**If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
Looking for a tradeable low in Corntarget for short corn idea that I posted was hit, now I’m looking for a tradeable low, more downside is likely but it’s probably better to stay flat and let the market figure out from where to bounce and then get on the trend.
If 400 doesn’t hold, a low might form in the 380-391 region
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
Corn likely to sell off next weekWith commercials holding record high shorts in corn, we might see a sell off next week to 412 support. if it doesnt hold there, it could go to 404-400
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
corn trading analysisthis is an idea based on fundamental and technical analysis, we are at a potential buy setup as the fundamentals(the report referred) suggest a minor supply and bad planting timing of the crop.
it has to be remarked to read the comment of the acreage report at the end of the document and understand how the crop grows.
if focused only on the first page of the acreage report (acreage of corn +3%) you can see that at the date the market receipted as a major supply(a sharp drop of price) but it did not account for the very late planting time and it can affect the developing of the crop.
all the important reports:
USDA acreage acrg0619 pdf (28/06/2019)
USDA crop progress prog2919 pdf (15/07/2019)
(search by your self)
the setup is a buy if do not drop significantly below the parallel channel and watch the further development of the crop to maximize the profits in the closing of the positions.
the latest report of the USDA indicate an improvement of the growing stage of the corn, but it is still significantly below compared year on year, also the crop quality has this deficit.
Corn B3 - Second chanceCorn B3
Enter = open candle day when MME15 crossunder MME60
and Price at ~36.00
Stop = 36.90
Target = to infinity and beyond
or 32.40
or 4 DAYS- close 4th candle day.
Corn sell signalsCorn, weekly chart: 4 years long resistance zone + "Evening Star" candles pattern + Divergence on RSI(14) + "Shooting Star"/Pin bar candle pattern on monthly chart.
CORN has reached exhaustion (for now)Yellow line is entry;
Stop loss is the red line;
Take profit are the green lines;
Corn B3Corn B3
Enter = open candle day - 02/07/2019
Stop = 37.50
Target = to infinity and beyond
or
05/07/2019 - clande day.
ZC1 en graf HORA Estamos ante la baja de la onda 2 que puede llegar hasta los 433/440 pts ahi se apoya en un baderin, la onda 3 estaria por salir dentro de un par de dias.
Corn Weather Market Losing Steam?
In the ZCZ2019 chart, I see the potential for another leg up however I believe it could retreat down to test the current support line. On 4/30 I bought corn around $3.80 feeling the low had been put in, after a few discomforting days I was correct. Due to delayed plantings and not optimal weather looking forward the market exploded up. I exited this position around the $4.40 range and enjoyed the nice profit, skeptical the market could not bust through the $4.54 price level.
Now that the market has broken through that level of $4.54 I am not adding to a Spec long position, while there is certainly upside potential left, I feel the market will struggle in the coming days and weeks to continue the great run it has displayed over the past weeks. That does not mean I am ready to initiate a short position, I feel the upside potential of 8.5% to the upside is still greater than a potential selloff.
I will be keeping a close eye on the market in the coming days and weeks if we do continue to rise an additional 8.5% and reach $5.00 +/- I will be preparing to enter the market as a bear. I do not forsee a freefall taking place but do see the potential for significant price reductions if we reach these levels. For the time being, I remain patient, sitting on my hands.
**Educational purposes only**
ZC1! - What to expect on the 4hr - CORN FUTURESSo check my last chart to see where I told you what needed to happen to get here. Spoiler alert. I was spot on. Now we have a fresh high and fresh failed to gain. Not a bad place to get short with tight stop just above previous highs. BUT TO TRULY KNOW IF THIS IS THE TOP... you have to lose the high. Look for a close below the last leg that took you up and then get short on the pull back to test that previous local high. This could be the last pullback before the drop, if there are no closes above the top green line. But typically there is a significant pull back after it close below the last leg up and thats usually where I get in on trend reversal signals.
