Forecast Corn Futures: Move up 385This is an update on a earlier forecast on corn futures.
The analysis remains the same: expect a move up to 385, then a retrace.
TGCN1! trade ideas
Back to Kijun support. Watch for next buy signal!Watch price action at Kijun, Kumo and 100wma supports in coming days. Don't hesitate to buy Corn again, whenever you see a firm buy signal!
Should you enter a long, based on my system rules initial stop should be placed at 349.
Note: volatility is still extreme low in Corn. Pls see ATR below.
CornMay Corn fought back after Trump called the president of Mexico to ease tensions after tweets. This market is above the 20 day moving average. Last 3 candles are rejecting lower prices. Mexico is a large buyer of US Corn, so if these talks falter, Corn may continue downward.
We could also be looking at a head and shoulders pattern. Neckline coming in at 360'6 support from back in September. Possible trade down to 78.6% area to build out the other shoulder.
Lastly, an Elliot Wave is here (plotting will just make this chart even more busy). Leg 4 has completed and the last leg up would complete the butterfly. A lot going on for just one market.
Milho para 2017: plantar para colher!Os gráficos dos futuros de milho me chamam atenção pela simetria e repetição de certos padrões. O ciclo básico que identifiquei dura 14 meses, durante os quais o movimento original realiza uma retração de 100% e marca um pivô de baixa na retração de 38.2%
A zona entre R$ 34-35 foi o topo de 2012, 2013 e 2014, rompido em 2015 e agora sendo retestado, com correção tanto no preço quanto no tempo (14 meses). Fechando com uma sombra no mensal é um belo indicativo de que as posições estão sendo montadas nessa zona.
Estou montando minha posição no CCMU2017, nos contratos para outubro o nível equivalente a R$ 34 nesta análise é R$ 30,50 (topo ou pivô importante em CCMU2015, CCMU2014 e CCMU2013), que foi testado e rejeitado nos últimos dias.
Alvo 1: R$ 39-40 (março-abril)
Retração de 38% da perna de baixa
Teste da MME9
Pivô de baixa
Alvo 2: R$ 44 (setembro-outubro)
Retração de 61.8%
Pivô de baixa
Expect Corn to run up in the coming weeksExpect Corn (Futures) to run up between January and March 2017.
CORN | Weekly ChartIt's arguably a similar case to the former on wheat... Buying within the lowest decile in a decade, a very asymmetric return distribution, a potential break-out of the down trend.
Bullish bias. What else do we need?Ichimoku setup -> Bullish:
- price above Kumo and Kijun
- Forward Kumo bullish
- Tenkan/Kijun bullish
- Chikou Span is about to cross above past candles. This is what we need for final confirmation, and then price action would also push all average lines pointing up
Heikin-Ashi -> Bullish
EWO -> Bullish
MACD -> Bullish
What else do we need for a leveraged long position? Some momentum gain, which would come with a confirmation close above 362!
(Note: Stop for my initial long position is trailed to 350)
Neutral March Corn Over the past few months, ZCH2017 has been more or less range bound.
Fundamentally we know a few things:
1. massive supply
2. decent demand
3. a season of south american planting that can make or break the US ag market.
We also know a few things technically as well:
1. A range bound chart that turns over at obvious support and resistance zones.
2. a possible ascending triangle in the works.
3. indicators suggesting short term moves
Fundamental Analysis:
- In March we will be presented with a USDA report that will reveal the prospective plantings for American corn, and a decrease in acres could posses the strength to send this commodity through the resistance. Until then we can rely on information such as south american weather problems, or changes in export demand to trade the ranges.
Technical Analysis:
- With the resistance and support zones in place, one can believe that this commodity will continue to trade the range until a breakout can been seen. Also, a continue price movement within the possible ascending triangle can give hope for a breakout to the top.
Many factors can be applied to ZCH2017 for near term trades, and this commodity will provide sufficient profit to traders that trade the range bound trends.
Until sufficient knowledge is produced, whether it be fundamentally or technically, I believe March Corn will continue to be range bound, which is why I am NEUTRAL MARCH CORN.
I guess for now we should all remember that famous saying, "the trend is your friend", no matter how short or long term it is.
I'm excited to see where this new year will take corn prices.
Happy Trading!
March CornMarch Corn is creating a bullish flag today suggesting higher prices. Would be careful on this one as more chop would be in the offing for grains before Thursday's report. Next potential high is 366, 88.6% of the XA leg. If bulls can push it higher then the top of this market at 369. If the report on Thursday is bullish then the completion of the Butterfly at 372'4 and possible extension around 380 level.
March CornMarch Corn still sees horizontal movement with creep upwards. Thursday is the USDA report for all grains, but the 2016 crop is still impacting this market. If USDA report shows a lowering of future crops, this may help corn. Also Funds may buy this week so support levels around 354'2 off the 3/1 Gann Fan may hold. If prices fall further look for 349 4/1 Gann Fan as next support.
CBoT cornCorn:
Price tried to but failed to kickstart the rally that we predicted a month ago but made a modest move down instead. Still, same move down was not impulsive and should rather be seen as an extended sideways move of the price. Price has been bumping into a heavy resistance zone that is positioned between, roughly, 362 and 268. We keep our bull scenario unchanged but have moved it a bit in time. We now are looking for another attempt of price to break the 362/368 resistance zone which then should serve as support and give price enough impulse to start trading towards our 420/440 target.
April Feeder Cattle Remains under 20 day moving averageApril Feeder Cattle fell a little further to stay under the 20 day moving average. We also have a rounding top suggesting further price action lower. Next possible price move to 123.25. Looking for 38.2 retracement. March Corn rose today. Looking for another day of up movement tomorrow to 360'6
CBoT CornCorn:
Price recently made some 'trap moves' which made us decide to step away from the market fro some time and let it play out. In meantime we see a clearer pattern being developed again which has resulted in a bull-flag-pattern. Same bull flag pattern has now the potential the unfold its last leg with the 375 level as first target by the end of December where price will meet resistance from the upper boundary of its current ascending price channel. The EW count suggests that pice has began its 3 of 3 wave which should give price support to trade substantia higher levels by the end of January or, possibly, mid February with 440 as second target.
Tough Going for CornMarch Corn faces a lot of resitance. Improved USDA sales results fight with high corn yields. Corn could also double top and trade back to 347 area. If bulls can push it through resistance at 365'6, it could continue to 375'2. Cypher inside a Butterfly shows a bearish Cypher and downtrend.
SHORT CORN WEEKLY I believe dec corn weekly is moving into a downward trend at least for the nearby due to a combination of technical and fundamental indicators.
MA's are nearing convergence and the Stoch RSI has already done so. MACD has begun its downward trend as well and RSI looks to be heading lower.
This week the USDA released another one of those great reports that they put together, and it was hardly bullish.
Record production and yield numbers (which was pegged at at 175.3!) were published and now the country could be looking at an ending stocks number to the tune of 2.4 billion or more, which is burdensome to say the least.
Until demand comes into play with any real significance, I am going to say this is a short for at least the nearby.
Looking to test the 3.22 support
Long Corn - Is there a Kernel of Truth? MACD has turned bullish coinciding with a potential break through resistance.
March 2017 Corn Up but heavy resistance followsCorn continues uptrend but will be met with downtrend resistance at next flight. If broken through will be met with resistance at 370. Double top reversal may occur and create choppy conditions. If it can break through both areas might see Butterfly completion to 402'6. There is a lot of corn on the market, so this would be a challenge for the bulls.
CBoT CornCorn:
Price did not break up through the 364/366 resistance line during last week as expected and traded only marginally higher during the week. We maintain our bias unchanged to be bullish with an important supportive level at 346 and a pivotal support at 336. We will have to go back to the drawing board if latter would be broken.
When bottoming or not yet?Wheat in a downtrend since 2012 and I think this is not the end, but, can be a turning point for a while...
Second target would a dream to hold Wheat long ETF for years :)
CBoT corn continued long play Corn:
Price mostly moved sideways during the past week but held well. The weekly candle (not attached/displayed) shows an almost perfect 'doji' which principally expresses doubt but we have no reason to believe that price will not continue its rally up and we keep our bull bias unchanged. Our pivotal supportive level remains unchanged at 336 for now.
The upper ascending line that starts at just below 364 on Monday and ends at 366 on Friday is expected to be broken during the coming week which will be the last confirmation that we need for our bull case scenario and after which we expect price to accelerate to the upside.
Our bottom line bias is up from here with essential support at 336.
