TGCN1! trade ideas
Time to pick some CornCorn has broken and closed below it's wedge on a weeky time frame. We are looking for pullback triggers to get involved to the short side. Targets are identified and the stop will come from the trigger (on a 60 or 240 min chart)...NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Corn - Chance for a multi time frame bullish breakWe may have very important and decisive Price action this week in Corn, which in case happens, will be a start of a long term and decent move!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup has turned to neutral since Dec/2014. Chikou is above Price, Price candles are small and are in between Tenkan and Kijun. Price is just below a flat Kumo
- Price has been consolidating in a very narrow range, between Tenkan and Kijun for the last 5 weeks. Heikin Ashi candles have small, mixed colour bodies with some upper and lower wicks. haDelta/SMA3 is hesitating around the zero line.
- Most importantly look at the major downtrend line! Is the weekly candle about to break a 2,5 years downtrend???
First we need to see a decisive trendline break. Later we can have a Kumo breakout through the ultimate key level of 426, which in case would open space to a decent multi weeks (or multi months) rally in Corn. A close below weekly Kijun Sen would invalidate the long trade idea.
Daily:
- We have a neutral Ichimoku setup: Price is at Kumo, hesitating ard Tenkan and Kijun Sen. Chikou is also at Price candles. What's more Price is stuck in a triangle. Today or tomorrow it should decide which way to break. The actual Price right now is above the upper tredline, but I like to wait to see a Heikin Ashi candle close as well above the triangle.
- Heikin Ashi candles show consolidation, but what makes it rather bullish is today's green candle with haDelta/SMA3 ticking above zero line.
It is really time to watch now! Long entries recommended at 395 and/or 400.
One more note: what makes me think it is rather possible to see a bullish move than a bearish continuation is that not even the extreme USD strength could put more pressure on Corn prices. I mean this USD bull has a massive headwind bearish effect on commodity prices in general, but as you see Corn seems to be rock solid for the last 5-6 weeks. (meanwhile USD Indx rallied more than 5 % recently)
Weekly setupCorn on the weekly chart is coiling and setting up for a great move. As we always say ...if you want strong moves that will last longer than a day then you need to watch the weekly charts. It takes patience to wait but they are nice when they explode. Stay tuned.
Corn - Can Bears lose control? - CORRECTIONCorrection - now right panel shows May futures as well.
Picture is same, just nominals are higher a bit.
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Weekly:
- Heikin Ashi candle is red and haDelta points down. However so far weekly Kijun Sen provided a good support/resistance. If Kijun holds, then this dip would be only a pull back, possible a second wave of a new bullish setup. If Price breaks below Kijun, then bears can take control again. Looking at Chikou Span being above Price candles, I think a move up from here is a bit more likely, but it is not yet very clear.
- Most important key level is 426. A weekly close above opens space for a strategic long term bullish move.
Daily:
- Price is below the Kumo, but the Ichimoku setup can not be called bearish until Price makes a lower low. There is some chance that we saw only a retest to a possible initial bullish trendline.
- Heikin Ashi candle today has a small body, haDelta crossing up above SMA3 again. Also Chikou Span found support at the past Kumo's top. This means selling pressure is slowing down.
I think we may try some bottom fishing here, and open some longs, with stop below 379. Do it only with 0,5 trade unit. For a better risk-reward Price should first print a green candle and then break above daily Kumo top at 400. A bullish Chikou Span cross would validate the long trade setup and idea.
Corn - Can Bears lose control? Weekly:
- Heikin Ashi candle is red and haDelta points down. However so far weekly Kijun Sen provided a good support/resistance. If Kijun holds, then this dip would be only a pull back, possible a second wave of a new bullish setup. If Price breaks below Kijun, then bears can take control again. Looking at Chikou Span being above Price candles, I think a move up from here is a bit more likely, but it is not yet very clear.
- Most important key level is 426. A weekly close above opens space for a strategic long term bullish move.
Daily:
- Price is below the Kumo, but the Ichimoku setup can not be called bearish until Price makes a lower low. There is some chance that we saw only a retest to a possible initial bullish trendline.
- Heikin Ashi candle today has a small body, haDelta crossing up above SMA3 again. Also Chikou Span found support at the past Kumo's top. This means selling pressure is slowing down.
I think we may try some bottom fishing here, and open some longs, with stop below 369. Do it only with 0,5 trade unit. For a better risk-reward Price should first print a green candle and then break above daily Kumo top at 390. A bullish Chikou Span cross would validate the long trade setup and idea.
Corn ZCK2015 beasish outlookCorn has completed a HS type of pattern. The 400.0 resistance has been tested several times now and the probability of increasing selling pressure is high at this point. The price has to stay below the 1\1 bear Gann line.
Corn - Consolidation, mixed picture, way is more likely upWeekly:
- Tenkan/Kijun is in weak bullish cross
- Chikou Span likely makes a weak bullish cross too above Price candles.
- weekly HA candle is small body with lower and higher wicks, haDelta crossing back above SMA3
- last two weekly candles touched Kijun Sen, which prove to be good support
Most likely the pull back wave is over with this week's candle. It means after a Kijun Sen retest Price is ready to go higher from here. Watch 414-416 level, as a weekly break above the horizontal supp/res and the Kumo will open space for a longer term bullish move.
Daily:
- Price attempted a bearish Kumo break, but in fact the Kumo blocked the move. 366 proved to be a good support for Corn. Now Price is back to the Kumo, trades between Tenkan and Kijun. We can say this is still a consolidation with Price trading at short term equilibrium.
- HA candles are green with haDelta and its SMA3 well above zero line. Oscillator is bullish.
- If Price breaks above Kijun Sen and later above the Kumo too, that will open space ahead of a stronger bullish move. 415 is a key level on the daily chart too.
Strategy is: buy on dips until Price holds above 366, the way is more likely up.
Corn - Falling - No trade Now - Target buy 260on the radar
here the short trade can only be very tactical with a tight stop
CORN bear flagReversal in course. CORN (ZCH15) bear flagging below trend-line. Price projection (1st target) at 353.0 by 06Feb15.
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself).
The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) extend to the 0.618 fibo. I say this, as most indicators are either bearish or neutral on the short/mid run. Ichimoku, for instance, is “cloudy”.
Unlike soybeans (that has been on sideways for days now), corn has provided some interesting ups and downs for day-traders. For the long-term however I am still bullish and will keep holding my long position as long as prices stay within the 4-350 trading range, although I strongly suggest a stop-loss at levels close to 330 for money management matters.
Just for the records, I am a position trader (i.e. no day-trading).
$ZC_F $CORN reclaims support with tailwindCorn futures regained support today and have a tailwind. Out performing $ZS_F $SOYB #beans so far Q4 2014 and now Q1 2015. See attached charts.
Chow down on Corn Soybeans broke major support so we are looking at Corn to see if this pattern breaks with it. We will use smaller time frames for a trigger.
Wheat, Corn, Soybeans - Still Bullish, watch for next buy waveLooking at Ichimoku setup, agri products still have good chance to develop bullish trend further, especially if within next few days they continue the buy wave from current key levels.
Wheat: Price is above Kumo and Kijun Sen, Future Kumo points up. Price retested Kijun Sen and 530-534 key support two days ago, from there popped up again yesterday. If Chikou Span crosses above Kumo, that will be a further bullish signal. Stay Long with stop below 515.
Corn: Same as Wheat, it retested Kijun Sen, trendline and 362 Key Support, Price action seems to be turning bullish again. On next buying wave Chikou Span can cross above Kumo too, giving further confirmation for possible bullish trend extension. Stay Long with stop below 353.
Soybeans: In terms of Ichimoku this product isnot yet really bullish, rather consolidating, as Price still trades within the Cloud, and both Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines are flat (not yet pointing up). However future Senkou lines made a bullish cross sofuture Kumo suggests a trend reversal may be around soon. Price has chance to move higher again from recent trendline and Kijun retest.
Recommendation here is to open small long (weighting in portfolio should be less) with stop below 990. Real bullish breakout and acceleration could happen with a break above 1060-65 key level, where we have the horizontal resistance and the bearish trendline.
Corn - Another chance to hop onCorn has been bullish for some time. Back when I posted the second bullish chart, I wasn't so convinced about it, but now I'm pretty sure we'll see higher prices. The weekly chart remains bullish
On the daily chart, the histogram divergence called for a small correction. I believe the correction came to an end today, as the impulse is blue and there is a bullish engulfing candle.
I have entered long on the Corn ETF near the closing price and I'm looking for 410, at least. I have a soft stop on this trade.
