#corn trade bias remains bullish. Look for buy signals in dips!Weekly:
- 350 proved to be a strong support/resistance. No lower low below the Kumo, means bearish resumption failed!
- Ichimoku picture is back to neutral, What's more the bias is switching to bullish! Early signals: weekly candle reaches an up to obvious equilibrium level of Kijun Sen - Senkou B - 100 WMA. Chicou Span is trying to cross back above past candles.
- Heikin Ashi signalled reversal last week, this week the signal turns to confirmed bullish, with green candle and haDelta/SMA3 move back above zero line. The candle has long body, no lower wick and very small higher wick -> this means a really strong momentum
- A bullish channel development may be in place, with focus on 415-420 key area: major downtrend line and spot Kumo. If this ultimate Key level will be broken, next tgts come as 450 and 500.
Daily:
- Extreme short squeeze caused a very sharp spike to the thick Kumo. This move turned Ichimoku picture back to neutral from bearish in two days! Price retreats now a bit, but the bias is bullish until trades above Kijun Sen. This means lower support zone is 370-380
- Heikin Ashi again gave early signal of the overbough situation: haDelta peaked at an extreme high, when Price itself reached Kumo resistance at 395. In two days folowing the peak, candles showed exhaustion and later pull back started.
- Possible supports are: 372 / 376. Watch price action and look for Heikin Ashi buy signal in the support zone!
TGCN1! trade ideas
December Corn trying to bottom for these 5 reasonsThe 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today:
1. Using the closes -
2. Using the highs -
3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line)
4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) -
5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price, didn't make a new low with price, so it is indicating some internal strength here for Corn.
Two of the big reasons for the drop in corn, from my perspective, was that corn production had a rough start and then it picked up and simultaneously commercial hedgers were selling corn futures and put themselves heavily short the market right at the highs and have taken the market down since then. I don't know what will happen to corn production, nor do I know what the commercial hedgers are going to do with their positions, so I can only speculate on what the market is telling me using technical analysis. With that in mind, I like my odds here. I don't have a lot of risk, but I have a lot of upside. In that same vein, if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade. Why? Because that's how markets work. You don't get free money handed to you from the market, but if you do, be very thankful and take it.
Regards,
Tim 9:48AM EST
CORN - If you missed last time, get ready for long now!!!First of all please read my previous bullish recommendations, and my view about how Corn Price action started to change.
Than look at the move on the daily (or on the weekly) chart: yes that was 20 %+ from the lows, but if one was conservative with the entry, it was still 10 %+ from the Kumo breakout or from 100 WMA break.
How does it look like now and what are the chances?
Weekly:
- the long term bearish trend was broken! Price has finally trades above 100 Weeks (!) WMA spending more than 2 years below it! We have a X-A-B-C reversal pattern with a higher high, after classic long term Elliott wave 0-5 was completed.
- Ichimoku setup is still neutral, but around a bullish breakout! Actually Price broke temporarely above the cloud and the 425 long term supp/res line, but since the move was 20 %+ from the previous low, finally it dipped back into the Kumo.
Price is trading above 100 WMA, Kijun Sen, and we also have a firm bullish future Kumo twist (Senkou Span A/B cross)
- Heikin Ashi candle shows bullish consolidation
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, with corrective price action. As price is reaching Kijun Sen and future Senkou B as most important supports, it is time to consider enterring longs and to look for buy signals again.
- The correction was as sharp as the bullish run, but the short term bearish momentum probably starts to drop further today. We have to watch the candle body size relative to the previous ones (actually that is haDelta/SMA3 quantification) and also the wicks: will be a lower low or not, will this or the next candle have a higher wick?
Corn - It will remain very bullish, but needs a pull back firstI think the long waited strategic trend reversal has started to happen in Corn, but short term it has become extremely overboght. Probably we'll see a pull back to 400 support, before it starts another leg up to 500+.
Weekly:
- Long term bearish trendline is broken. Price is above 100 weeks WMA! Ichimoku setup is close to a bullish breakout. We also have a bullish Senkou Span cross (Kumo twist). This shows the long term sentiment is changing to bullish again.
- Heikin Ashi is firm bullish, with extremely strong momentum. However haDelta has reached an extremely high level, and Price is around current Kumo top, so there is some chance we see a pull back from here to Kijun support, before the Bull really startes running towards 500 or maybe even to 600!
Daily:
- Simply bullish both in terms of Ichimoku and Heikin Ashi, but haDelta has some negative divergence, and Price also got far away from Kijun Sen, and Senkou B line, so it should pull back a bit towards 390-400 equilibrium, before Bulls gain new power.
Corn - Meanwhile in Agri space there is some bullish actionWeekly:
- Ichimoku setup turns neutral from bearish as Price shoots up to the Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi signal is firm bullish
Is it just another short squeeze, or finally a start of a longer term reversal?
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is in possible early bullish phase, but Price faces some headwind first at 400 supp/res.
- Heikin Ashi is bullish, but the move from the lows was very quick and agressive, thus haDelta reached extreme high. I think we may see some profit taking here first, and a pull back towards 380-385 support are, where we can start to accumulate longs again.
Corn - September 2015 - Daily - Reversing the declineNOTE: The Chart has the content.
This content here is "editable" and therefore at risk of being altered to the analysts advantage (hindsight).
I am looking for "El Niño" weather pattern to have upside for Corn this year as drought could roll in and change the crop condition over the summer.
ADDENDUM to chart: The purple rectangles (lines) are at the START OF WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN moves and provide clear recognition that sellers are sitting at that level ready to sell and check any advance. This is how the market TEACHES US what levels are important. Instead of guessing that certain "retracement" levels are important, you can "SEE" them clearly, once you know how to find them.
Here's what the chart says:
NOTE TO PURPLE TRIANGLES:
There are NO DAILY RANGES ABOVE the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN. The market (buyers) tested the resolve of the sellers, but the sellers didn't allow an entire day above the start of a weekly range expansion down.
NOTE TO LIGHT YELLOW TRIANGLE:
The inverse is also currently true. There are no entire ranges BELOW the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION UP. The sellers had control and flushed the market down to a new low, but it didn't last. The market reversed right back up. Stay tuned if this pattern continues so we KNOW THE KEY LEVEL of the market.
RISK: 3 AVERAGE TRUE RANGES = 7 cents/day = 21 cents risk overall.
June 17, 364 last, ATR 7
3 x ATR = 21 cents risk = 343 stop.
Tim 10:09AM EST June 17, 2015
Corn - Low volatility, bullish bias again. Be a Price follower!Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral/bearish, but there are some important changes in averages: Tenkan, Kijun has been very close to each other, and because of this Senkou A has been flat for long time. By now Senkou B has dropped enough to make a very thin forward Kumo
- Price is getting closer to longer term bearish trendline. It has been trading in a relatively tight weekly range of 350-400 since November/2014 (more than 7 months now!), and by definition volatility dropped to very low level.
- Heikin Ashi signal may turn bullish again this week. Please not that we need to see friday close to make sure the signal is valid, but I think we will very likely see more move up to range mid and the Kumo.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish: Price is below Kumo but above Tenkan and Kijun, Chikou hits past candles, and we have a thick Kumo shading Price ahead.
- Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bullish for a while, but Price is facing a serious and thick Kumo resistance ahead.
- Kumo is thick and Senkou B is far above Price. From this kind of formation it often happens that while Bulls and Bears keep fighting in the neutral zone of the Cloud, Price slowly develops an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is quite a reliable bullish pattern. Of course we don't know now right now how it will really go, but if that happens to be the case, the measured bullish tgt from a neckline break later would be ard 395.
Please remember, we are not Price Predictors, but Price Followers!
As my belief is that the higher time frame dominates the lower one, I'd be a buyer on dips. I will keep building some long positions, of course not yet a big strategic one.
CORN Could Continue To Much Higher Levels CORN has been bearish for the last three years as we see on the Weekly chart, but that is likely over as A-B-C correction is currently unfolding. The first wave A has already made 5 waves up, which confirms a new bullish cycle. In wave B we can see a zig-zag pattern, that is near completion. We see some significant Fibonacci support levels around 345 on a Daily chart, from where a bounce could occur.
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGE Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue.
Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period.
Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower.
The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California:
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this:
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming:
www.livescience.com
www.globalresearch.ca
www.globalclimatescam.com
www.thelongview.com.au
dailycaller.com
nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com
iceagenow.info
Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water:
www.bibliotecapleyades.net
www.blacklistednews.com
www.zerohedge.com
Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience:
www.bibliotecapleyades.net
So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities.
If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water.
Short, short term, Long, long term.
Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320.
Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential.
This is ZCN2015 futures on corn chart, same as ZC1! idea.
(Made this idea again because on zcn2015 posting it in forum posts it with chart, unlike zc1!, which is posted with link.)
That is all.
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGEBoth corn and wheat downtrend will continue.
Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period.
Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower.
The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California:
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this:
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming:
www.livescience.com
www.globalresearch.ca
www.globalclimatescam.com
www.thelongview.com.au
dailycaller.com
nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com
iceagenow.info
Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water:
www.bibliotecapleyades.net
www.blacklistednews.com
www.zerohedge.com
Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience:
www.bibliotecapleyades.net
So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities.
If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water.
Short, short term, Long, long term.
Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320.
Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential.
That is all.
Corn - Correction, following Wheat price actionDaily:
It doesn't look as strong and promising as Wheat, but the pull back which started yesterday can go further up to retest 380 +/-area.
Weekly:
- Price reached a possible supp/res zone of 351-363 area. Heikin Ashi candle pattern with haDelta/SMA3 suggests there is increasing chance for a pull back to retest Kijun Sen and the Kumo.
- Upper key levels on the weekly: 384 / 400 / 420
I am in a small counter long position.