Israel raids Rafah, risk aversion heats up and gold is ready to
Israel suddenly launched an air strike on Rafah, and nearly 100,000 people began to evacuate. On the night of the 6th, the war in the Middle East escalated again.
Geographical risks have been the focus of global attention in the past two years. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, risk aversion has been ignited.
This time, Israel escalated the war again. The main reason was that the negotiations between the two parties failed and their respective needs were not met. In addition, the United States supported Israel and held a veto power, making the situation more and more complicated.
In addition, the United States cannot protect itself. Last year, the interest on U.S. government bonds was nearly US$900 billion, which was more than twice the average level over the past decade.
Now, the average yield on U.S. bonds exceeds 4%. In the past two years, the yield on U.S. bonds has hit a 20-year high, and a large amount of money has chosen to purchase fixed-income financial products.
In the first two months of this year, the U.S. Congress is expected to pay $327 billion in interest payments. In March alone, the interest on U.S. debt was nearly $90 billion, claiming to be $2 million per minute.
As we all know, federal interest rates are high, and the cost of U.S. debt financing has increased. The United States originally relied on borrowing money to survive, but now even interest payments have become a problem.
Every year when the fiscal deficit occurs, some creditor countries of the United States have already begun to worry or doubt whether the United States still has the ability to pay. Some people may say, wouldn't it be enough to just open up India? This idea is not only funny, but also naive. This matter must be approved by Congress.
Moreover, a large amount of QE monetary easing will continue to intensify inflation. If there is too much money in the market, prices will rise too fast. The purpose of raising interest rates is because of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing in 2020, which has led to this.
Therefore, it is not simply that there is no money in hand and the money printing machine is running overnight. If it is that simple, then every country can do this. Once the balance is not good, there will be a chain reaction. Paul Volcker is an example. , the fear of lowering interest rates is a rebound in inflation.
In the golden hour, yesterday's market fluctuated at a high level and fell sharply in early trading. However, the European market broke through the high point in the morning and has been trading sideways near 2320. The strong sun on the daily line also laid the foundation for the subsequent rise. However, it should be noted that this kind of rise will be confirmed by stepping back, and the following attention will be around 2315-2313.
Today, you can do more in the 2322-2320 area, just defend at 2310, focus on the high point of 2330 above, and focus on the 2338-2342 area as the target.
