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THON2025 trade ideas

RBOB post tariff structure and range to take advantage of!Hi guys today we are starting off with RBOB , which has been quiet for the past month and it has been trading in a structured range between 2.05 as a high resistance and 1.92 / 1.94 as strong support. As of today we are currently sitting at the given support line of 1.92 and the latest news which came from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Imports , which would probably impact and touch the Oil Industry. The U.S. imports 4M barrels of Crude Oil every single day from Canada and around 900-1M barrels of Oil Crude Oil from Mexico. These tariffs would definitely touch the consumer as a long term which would give us a boost into the overall demand / supply play around the prices of Petroleum Products. Current entry RBOB (Gasoline) 1.9300 entry level, with two separate targets. Target 1: 1.9755 Target 2: 2.0310 The strategy can be repeated after the targets are touched with a patient retracement of the lower support line and input similar targets.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by DG55Capital
Gasoline, is more likely to bottom soon. GASOLINE / 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. GASOLINE appears to be attempting to establish another low. A breakout above critical resistance levels could indicate a potential continuation of the upward trend. However, the price is currently consolidating within a range. Therefore, rather than entering at the current levels, it is advisable to wait for a breakout followed by a pullback into the breakout zone for a more calculated and strategic entry. Maintain discipline, allow the market to align with your strategy, and approach trades with confidence. Trade safely, Trader Leo.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by BTM-LEO
2
GASOLINE sits 4 straight months on the Support. Expect reboundGasoline (RB1!) has been trading on the 4-year Support Zone for 4 straight months, forming a confirmed technical bottom. The September 09 Low was also on the Lower Lows of the long-term Falling Wedge, which makes the probabilities of a rebound even stronger. At the same time, the 1W RSI bounced from oversold territory (below 30.00) and has stabilized back above its MA trend-line, confirming a bullish reversal. In addition, the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, with the previous 2 such formations since January 2023 aligning with the Wedge's Bullish Legs. The previous Lower Lows bottom reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result we remain committed to our long-term Target of 2.600 (below also the Lower Highs trend-line), which we expect to get hit within the next 4 months. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
1
GASOLINE: Turned bullish on 4H as the MA50 held.Gasoline turned bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 56.424, MACD = 0.010, ADX = 32.938) as it rebounded strongly on the 4H MA50. The overall pattern looks very much like the October 2nd 4H MA50 rebound, which rose to almost the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is our Target (TP = 2.1650), just under the R1 level. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by InvestingScope
GASOLINE Bottom confirmed. 3-month rally ahead.Gasoline (RB1!) formed a confirmed technical bottom on the 3.5-year Support Zone and the Lower Lows of the Falling Wedge. At the same time, the 1W RSI bounced from oversold territory (below 30.00) back above its MA trend-line, confirming a bullish reversal. The previous Lower Lows bottom reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result we remain committed to our long-term Target of 2.600 (below also the Lower Highs trend-line), which we expect to get hit within the next 3 months. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
1
Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long (RBOB) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish. ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication. Front Month Premium - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:RBV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
GASOLINE Do-or-die moment before total collapse.Gasoline (RB1!) is approaching not only the Lower Lows trend-line from the December 12 2022 Low but also the Support Zone that has been in effect in the past 3.5 years. Naturally, this is the most critical Support Cluster of all, if the market is avoid a brutal sell-off in the coming months. That will be if Gasoline closes a month below the Support Zone. Until then, this is its last chance to stage another multi-month Bullish Leg similar to those of early 2023 and early 2024. As long as the Support Zone holds then, we will target 2.6000, which is below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as the Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
GASOLINE Strong buy opportunity.Last time we looked into Gasoline (RB1!) was exactly 2 months ago (June 06, see chart below) and the price action gave us the most optimal buy opportunity on the 0.618 Fibonacci level and hit straight on our 2.6000 Target: Since then, Gasoline declined aggressive along with most of the energy sector and even broke below the 0.618 Fib on Monday. This however is technically the ideal long-term buy entry as not only the dominant pattern remains a 2-year Channel Down but also in symmetrical terms, it appears that the price action may be on similar levels as the June 23 2023 Low. As a result, we turn bullish on Gasoline again, targeting the Internal Lower Highs trend-line at 2.7500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
1
GASOLINE Medium-term buy opportunityGasoline (RB1!) has been on a strong Bearish Leg ever since the April 12 High, which is a Lower High for the 2-year Channel Down, and even broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Having already touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, we expect a medium-term rebound, similar to the one on May 04 2023. The rally not only hit and broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but also extended as high as the 0.236 Fib. As a result, we consider the current level to have a solid R/R behind it and buy, targeting 2.600 (just below the 0.236 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
GASOLINE Short-term buy. Sell at the right time.Gasoline (RB1!) is on a 3-day bullish 1D candle run after testing and holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 05. On the wider scale, this is the Bullish Leg of the 18-month Channel Down and it is approaching its top (Lower Highs trend-line). As you can see, the Bullish Legs of this pattern share a certain degree of symmetry, so as it happened on April 12 2023, we expect the new Lower High to be priced near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That will also touch the internal Higher Highs trend-line. The symmetrical 1D MACD Bullish Cross of March 27 2023, was a signal that the Bullish Leg will soon come to an end. As a result, on the 1.236 Fib we will turn bearish and target the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up at 2.6000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
Cup and Handle Pattern in Gasoline!Next to Cocoa, Gasoline comes in 2nd place for the best total return performance in Q1 2024 amongst commodity markets. The infamous cup and handle pattern has emerged, adding a level of upside conviction in this trade. Fundamentals: Severe weather developments here in the USA and geopolitical supply chain disruption have caused refiner input costs to tick up slightly faster than normal. According to FactSet, the cost of gasoline shipments into New York Harbor next month has jumped 28% since the beginning of the year. This increase surpasses the average of 20% seen during the same period over the past quarter-century. According to Bloomberg, "In Russia, an expanded Ukrainian drone campaign has hammered key refineries. The damage has required months-long repairs and pushed the Kremlin to conserve domestic supplies by curbing fuel exports." Despite record U.S. production, these supply chain shocks have helped boost gasoline prices, thereby increasing refinery profits and margins for those companies that can remain operational. The next OPEC meeting is due on April 3rd, where further production cuts will act as another tailwind for higher crude and gasoline prices. Technicals: From a technical perspective, we can see a clear cup and handle pattern forming, which is typically a bullish chart pattern. We would need to see a break and close above $2.85 (the top of the August 15th gap lower) before testing the next major level of $2.95-$2.985. A break and close above this level is likely to lead to an upside breakout. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Market maturity in wave 1 and 2! or sideways corrective patternDear analysts and traders, I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it. I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily. I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him. Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, Mr. Nobody
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
GASOLINE Sell signal approachingGasoline (RBOB1!) is staging a short-term rebound towards the top of the (dotted) Channel Up ahead of a 1D Golden Cross. The 18-month pattern is a Channel Down and last time we saw those technical dynamics was during the previous Bullish Wave/ Channel Up that peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (April 12 2023) exactly on the Golden Cross and then corrected below the (dotted) Channel Up. As a result, we are starting to take a bearish stance on Gasoline, targeting 2.400 (bottom of the Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by TradingShot
Corrective sideway structure?!!!Greetings Dear analysts and traders, I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it. I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily. I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him. Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, Mr. Nobody
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
GASOLINE Buy signal if 1D MA50 breaks.Gasoline (RB1!) has had a strong 3-day rise last week but that is still contained within the bearish barriers of a Channel Down. However during this whole pattern, the 1D RSI has been developing a Channel Up, hence a Bullish Divergence for the price. As a result, we will look to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a break-out signal and if the price closes a 1D candle above it, we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with an early target projection at 2.4250 (but of course this can move depending on its course). Technically, we can even see the rise extending to +30.00% from the bottom or even slightly higher, as the two major bullish runs of 2023 have risen by +34.60% and +32.60% respectively. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by TradingShot
2
Gasoline Futures Fractals from 2000s Bull RunThe main assumption, that is unlikely to happen, assumes the coming wave will be proportional to the 2004-2008 rally. This is based off of the move out of 2020 being over 6 times the trough to peak percent gain during 2002-2003. The lead in fractals and Bollinger Band behavior are similar. We are once again in an expansionary phase of real estate. General risk is arguably more elevated globally. This cycle could be quicker, if money velocity increases massively. The liquidity providers are more than capable of doing this.
NYMEX:RB1!
by triplej333
2
🔝 US Gas prices become more affordable as key breakdown is hereAmericans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year. US gas prices hit their highest 52 Weeks in August and September ahead of Labor Day, with the national average standing at $3.82 a gallon FRED:GASREGW , per AAA Gas Prices . Gasoline prices hit summertime levels in over a decade even as the driving season comes to a halt, as a result of rising crude-oil prices TVC:USOIL driven by production cuts. Brent crude TVC:UKOIL , the international benchmark, jumped to $90 a barrel earlier is September for the first time in 2023 after both Saudi Arabia and Russia extended oil production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day through December 2023 in a bid to maintain price stability. Higher US gas prices NYMEX:RB1! are a problem for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame historically high inflation. The central bank has already hiked interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by more than 500 basis points since March 2022, helping lower the pace of consumer-price increases to 3.2% in July from last year's highs above 9%. But the jump in fuel prices is threatening to derail the progress the Fed has made in taming inflation. As a result, just after September, 2023 FOMC meeting market participants are waiting one or maybe two dovish Fed's Rate price actions in 2024. At the same time before September, 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations were about three cuts, near to four. (up to 100 b.p.). Meanwhile juts a take a look what technical picture in RBOB Gasoline futures RB1! price says. Near the middle of August, 2023 Gasoline futures prices turned massively down, due to seasonal backwardation in RBOB futures contracts, where autumn RBOB futures contracts are usually to be trade lower vs. summer RBOB futures contracts. Moreover, in the last day of Q3'23 RBOB futures price turned firmly lower, breaking down the major trendline support that was actual all the time from disinflationary Covid-19 era. Moreover weekly SMA(52) is broken down also. In a conclusion, I have to say that retail gasoline prices are usually to follow the major trend, within one or up to two months.
NYMEX:RB1!
by Pandorra