THO1! trade ideas
Gasoline Entering holiday weekend and hurricane after effects, we should see a few weeks of significant draw downs in inventory.
!RB1 Game Plan!Gas Futures Plummeted after tremendous break due to Hurricane harvey. After the plumet price did drop right ontop of 100EMA, a possible sign of strong support here to see it test upper channel once more. If all goes well, selling upper rejection is the plan.
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CTF - RB1!
Chart timeframe - 4hr
Area of interest - 1.8275 , 1.67
Potential target 1 - 1.75
Potential target 2 - 1.69
Potential extended target - 1.67
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Trade Safe everyone!
A good one could be setting upThis spread is now on the radar but waiting to see thing settle down a bit in Texas. So will be ready to act when refiners come back on line or if we push to a crazy extreme
1.7940 seems to be a strong resistanceAnd Hourly Tenkan is getting under the price, so that may :
- Either be the beginning of a reversal of the trend (now up, might go down).
- Or be a pause in the uptrend (if Tenkan sen line gets over the price again in 1H timeframe then that would mean that the trend is getting up again at least in 1 hour timeframe)
Futures scalp pivot creation techniqueDemonstrating a technique to create pivots for scalping. Works on many futures. To be used as potential consolidation and reversal levels. Not perfect, not advice, just for fun.
RBOB GASOLINE BEAR SIGNALRBOB GASOLINE friday 25Aug17 price action gives a string bear signal. Price will gravitate towards the bear 1/1 Gann line. Probability H.
Time to take your foot off the Gas on the Energy SectorAfter a very profitable rally across the oil complex over the past 4 weeks, it is time to tighten up stops to secure profits and position on the short side. At present we don't know whether this pullback will be a Wave 2 correction and will make a higher low in a ongoing uptrend, or whether the current rally was merely a bear rally that ended at a lower high which means we are looking at new lows.
The good news is that we don't have to know - We only need know that it's time to position for a down-leg. Our focus for this down-leg will be on Gasoline, as there are numerous indicators aligning that favor a short trade here. Here is the setup:
1) Seasonals for Gasoline turn extremely bearish is the Aug - Oct period. Since 2005, Gasoline posts a miserable 2-9 record in the upcoming month. Further, Average losses are 18cents vs winning months posting gains of 9cents, so you are getting pot odds of 2-1 to short in August on top of your 82% win rate. Very compelling.
2) COT showing Commercials reversing their extremely bullish positioning from 5 weeks ago. We score Commercial and Fund positioning and activity factoring in a volatility component, and then scoring them as a Relative Strength Score. On June 20 Commercials Net Position scored a impressive 92% on a 18m basis, and this was now down to 67% as of the latest reporting period. This was courtesy of 4week net selling of over 19k contracts, and this 4wk reduction scored a very low 15% over the past 18months & 26% over the last 5 years. Conclusion, Commercials were aggressive sellers into this rally - Perhaps you might want to join them?
3) The Dollar wipeout, while still able to continue lower, is approaching very formidable 3 year support levels of 91.5 - 93 level.. Once the USD bottoms and begins retracing some of this wipeout, you can bet the algos will be pressuring the entire energy complex.
4) Chart Action - A very bearish weekly candle formed this week indicating this rally has run out of steam and it is time to retrace a % of this very nice 25cent rally we just witnessed. Fib levels target the 1.48-1.50 area for a first stop which offers us adequate upside to place a bet here.
Here is how to play it:
1 -Sell Sep RB Futures at current levels : 1.5323
2 -Buy the Sep 1.53-1.61 Bull Call Spread - This should cost you approx 3.5 cents, but we'll have to confirm exact levels tomorrow as options are not trading currently (sunday night)
3 - Sell the Sep 1.45 Put for approx 2 cents
Your upside is 8cents, while downside is 2 centsffor R/R of 4-1. This trade gives us 36days to work, giving us time to allow the exoected Aug sell-off to materialise.
Good Trading
Energy (D): GasolineThere are three if/else statements with this trade.
If price fills the gap set on December 2nd and shows signs of buying, go long.
Else, stay flat and wait.
If price reaches purple region as indicated in chart, go short.
Else, stay flat.
If price reaches "Buy Here" level, buy there.
- Odds are we will see some action in this trade as long as price does not gap beyond forecasted prices. Gas and oil essentially have a 1-1 positive correlation, so follow this asset for some clues/ indication on energy trajectory.
Crackspread vs Crude oil Price DiverganceBuy crude oil, sell the 3:2:1 crack spread. The hard part is the ratio you should use.
RB hit resistanceRB hit a strong resistance level think caused a CL drop - waiting to see if this causes a problem for CL on larger time frames
RBoB Gasoline Been stuck and bouncing in a tightening 'wedge' range - can it break out to align with stronger seasonals?
Energy spread going down New January contracts spread look to go down. Setup is not so clear, so I prefer to wait outside.
RB futures long off B3 Weeklies supportGas popped on the news that a line caught fire in the south of the US. So notice how the news event negated any sign of the B3 Weeklies study working. As price capitulated and calmed down, the levels in the study regained validity. The support has held and 1.4719 mean is the target. R:R 1.5 to 1.
