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MARKETS week ahead: May 26 – 31Last week in the news The market sentiment was once again shaped by fundamentals during the previous week. On one hand, the new narrative regarding tariffs raised concerns over potential stagflation, while the new tax and spending bill adopted by the US House of Representatives is raising concerns over the broadening of the US debt. The US equities were traded with a negative sentiment, where S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.802. This news also supported the weakening of the US Dollar and rise in the price of gold, which ended the week at $3.357. Gold gained almost 2% only on Friday. The US Treasury yield also strongly reacted, where 10Y reached 4,62 at one moment, however, ending the week at 4,5%. This week BTC celebrated Pizza Day anniversary, with a fresh, new all time highest level at $111,7K. The markets tried to start the previous week with a positive sentiment, however, news regarding new tariffs imposed by the US Administration turned the sentiment to negative territory. As per the announcement of the US President, the new 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union, will become effective as of 1st July. Although the US Administration is open to discussion, the latest news from the US President states “not looking for a deal”. As announced on social network “Truth” the US President will impose a 25% tariffs on all IPhones which are produced outside of the US. This news hit shares of Apple, which lost about 3% only during Friday's trading session. At the same time, some analysts are noting that the production of IPhones in America will significantly impact the price of smartphones, which might reach $3.000 from current $1.000. The US House of Representatives adopted a tax and spending bill, during the previous week. Although the bill includes cuts to Medicare, it also includes several other tax cuts, which significantly raised concerns over broadening of the US debt in the next 10 years period. It comes after a US credit rating cut by rating agency Moodys during the previous week, on the same concerns. News is reporting that the companies are turning to AI in order to estimate the potential global impact of their supply chains, after introduction of trade tariffs by the US Administration. It is called “AI tariff agent” which can immediately calculate changes for 20.000 products. The US Steel Corporation made a business agreement with Japanese Nippon Steel. The takeover was initially stopped by the US President Joe Biden, however, the Trump administration supported this deal but in terms of partnership between two companies. As it has been noted, the deal is supposed to create 70K new jobs in the US steel industry and $14B to the US economy. CRYPTO MARKET Bitcoin celebrated the anniversary of Pizza Day by reaching another significant milestone - a fresh, new all time highest level. At the same time, the rest of coins were traded in a relatively mixed manner. However, regardless of mixed trading, there has been an increase of total crypto market capitalization of around 4% on a weekly level, where around $114B had been added to the crypto market, mostly of which came from BTC. Daily trading volumes were also almost doubled on a weekly basis, from $148B traded week before to $306B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 4%, with an inflow of funds of around $139B. BTC celebrated its anniversary with an increase in cap of 4,8% on a weekly level, adding total $99B to its capitalization. The rest of the crypto market did not follow a surge in value, as they were mostly traded in a mixed manner. On a positive side were Monero, with a surge in value of 16,7% w/w adding $1B to its cap. ETH modestly increased its value by 1,7%, with an inflow of $5,2B. Another coin with a significant weekly surplus was ZCash, which added 26% to its value. BNB was traded higher by 4%, while Solana added 3,6% in value. Uniswap was also traded higher by 4%. On a completely opposite side were coins like Maker, which dropped in value by almost 29% w/w. XRP and Litecoin lost around 2% in value, while Polkadot was traded lower by more than 3%. When coins in circulation are in question, there has been higher activity during the previous week. This week ZCash added 5,2% more coins to the market. XRP, DOGE and DASH had an increase in circulating coins by 0,1%, the same as Solana and Filecoin. This week Polkadot had a higher increase of coins in circulation by 0,6%. Crypto futures market BTC futures were following the spot market, in which sense, futures on this coin ended the week by more than 5% for all maturities. Different situation was with ETH futures. Although ETH gained a modest 1,7% w/w, its futures perceived the market at different levels, where all maturities gained more than 9,5% on a weekly basis. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year closed the week at the level of $113.520 and those maturing a year later at the level of $119.980. ETH futures with maturity in December 2025 were last traded at $2.682 while December 2026 was closed at $2.835. It is interesting that ETH long term futures are still struggling to pass the $3K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
The Entire (TOTAL) Cryptocurrency Market BullishNotice the blue dotted line on the char, this is a classic, I drew it 11 days ago. It is based on resistance and support. In this case, support. 11 days and what happens? This level continues to be challenged as support and holds. TOTAL moved below it for a brief moment, just one day, just to recover the next day. Now, TOTAL is trading above and going full green. Yesterday, there was a long lower wick and a recovery. Today, green again. This is it! This is all you need to see. This is bullish confirmed. Support is being tested over and over and it holds. The fact that support holds means that the bears lost the battle of depressing the market, the bears lost. The bears losing means the bulls won. Bulls winning means we won. We winning means prices are going up. Prices going up means we are about to get paid on every single position that we opened and bought in the last few months. Boom! The entire (TOTAL) Cryptocurrency market is set to grow. This is the best possible ever. This is it. Bitcoin is about to hit a new All-Time High, and the Altcoins will ALL grow 2-3 digits, within a single day. When you take the entire 6 months expected of bullish action, we are going to see 4 digits growth for a large portion of the market. Something not seen by many before. It will be wild, it will be huge, it will be awesome. Thanks a lot for the follow and for your continued support. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
1
TOTAL Breakout While Alts Lag – Setup Worth Watching🚨 #TOTAL #TOTAL2 #TOTAL3 – Market Structure Watch 📈 TOTAL (entire crypto market cap) has broken out of its consolidation range — a strong signal of broader market strength. 📉 TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 (altcoin market caps) are still trailing but beginning to show early bullish signals. 🔄 If BTC stabilizes or cools off, we could see a wave of capital rotation into alts — a classic altseason scenario may be taking shape. 👀 Momentum is shifting — stay alert for quick rotations across the board!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by coin_mastermind
$TOTAL – Is This Another Bull Trap in the Making?The total crypto market cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) has surged from $2.32T and is currently trading around $3.25T, continuing its upward trajectory. On the surface, things look bullish—but is there more to the story? Looking at the chart, the current market structure bears a striking resemblance to previous cycles: • 2021: Massive bull run • 2022: Painful bull trap • 2024: Another explosive rally • 2025: …potential bull trap? If history is any guide, we could be nearing a critical turning point. The pattern suggests caution—could this rally be setting up for another steep correction? My Take: Momentum is strong, but the similarities to past cycles are too close to ignore. If the market stalls at current levels, the risk of a bull trap becomes very real. What do you think—repeat of history or a new chapter for crypto? Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by PetrockTheAnalyst
MARKETS week ahead: May 18 – 24Last week in the news The US inflation and inflation expectations were in the spotlight of market interest during the previous week. The weekly surprise came from the US-based credit rating agency Moody’s, which downgraded the US sovereign by one notch. As the news came late Friday, the market reaction was reflected in an after-hours trading, where the 10Y Treasury benchmark reached again the level of 4,48%. As tariffs tensions are settling down, the positive market sentiment continues to hold on US equity markets. The S&P 500 had five positive trading days, adding more than 5% to its value during the week, and closing it at 5.958. Due to the same reason, the price of gold eased, ending the week at the level of $3.201. The crypto market was side traded during the week, where BTC was moving between levels of $103K and $105K. The US inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which was in line with market expectations. The US inflation in April was standing at 0,2% for the month, and 2,3% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation continues to be modestly elevated on a yearly basis, with the level of 2,8% in April, however, it reached 0,2% on a monthly basis. The surprise came from the University of Michigan inflation expectation survey, which was elevated compared to the previous posted figures. The preliminary data showed an increased 5 years inflation expectations of 7,3%, from 6,5% posted previously. Expectations for a yearly inflation were also higher, at the level of 4,6% from 4.4% posted previously. Analysts are noting that such sentiment of US consumers is coming from tensions over trade tariffs between the US and China. The significant news from rating agencies came during the weekend, noting that the US based rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The rating cut came as a result of concerns over sustainability of the US budget deficit and higher rising costs of debt in the environment of higher interest rates. The market reaction was negative, but was reflected in an after-hours trading. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark surged to the level of 4,48%, while 30Y Treasury yields climbed to the level of 4,96%. The US President's visit to Gulf countries was under close watch of news and markets during the previous week. The most important outcome of these visits are significant trade and investment agreements which the US and Gulf countries signed during the visit. Some deals include a $1,2 trillion commitment by Saudi Arabia of the “economic exchange”, a $1,4 trillion investment over the next 10 years of UAE in the US. Projects were mostly related to investment in the AI and tech companies but also purchases of Boeing planes and military equipment, as per news reports. Another news covered the US President's visit to the United Arab Emirates, where it is noted that Nvidia, Cisco and Oracle will support the project called “UAE Stargate”, which is an artificial intelligence data centre based in Abu Dhabi. CRYPTO MARKET After a significant rally two weeks ago, the crypto market slowed down a bit during the previous week. It was traded in a mixed mode, however, the majority of coins had a weekly correction in the price. BTC managed to sustain the weekly levels above the $103K, holding the total crypto market capitalization relatively flat. The total crypto market cap remained relatively flat on a weekly basis, losing less than $ 1B in value. Daily trading volumes eased during the week, trading around $148B on a daily basis, which was a significant drop from $309B traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 1%, with $25B inflow of funds. BTC had a relative volatility during the previous week, but it managed to end it relatively flat, adding $12B to its total market cap, or 0,6% w/w. ETH also managed to sustain previously gained levels, also ending the week flat, adding a modest 0,6% to its cap. Another coin which was traded with a positive sentiment for the second week in a row was Monero, which managed to add additional 6,7% to its total capitalization. Tron is also in this group with a weekly gain of 4,2%. On the opposite side were coins whose price went through a weekly correction. XRP had a drop in value of 1%, losing $1,45B in market value. BNB dropped by 1,2% while ADA had a major correction of 7%. Uniswap was last traded won by 14,6%, Filecoin and Algorand also experienced a drop in value of more than 7% each. When it comes to circulating coins, the highest weekly increase had IOTA of 0,5%. IOTA was followed by Filecoin, with an weekly increase in circulating coins of 0,4%. This week Maker had a withdrawal of the circulating coins by -0,2%. It is interesting to note that stablecoin Tether issued the new 0,9% new coins on the market. Crypto futures market During the previous week there has been a significant increase in the value of ETH futures. Although this coin managed to add 0,6% to its market cap, still futures showed that this coin should be more than 11% higher from its current market value. This includes both short term and long term futures. Futures maturing as of the end of May were last traded at levels above $2,6K. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $2.720, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.926. This means a positive market sentiment, increasing the possibility for ETH long term futures to reach levels above the $3K in the near future. BTC futures remained relatively flat as of the end of the week, moving in line with the market sentiment from the spot market. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year reached the last trading price at $108.455, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the week at $114.930.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Analysis for - June, 2025📊 Current Market Status Current Cap: $2.27 T 24H Range: $2.25 T - $2.28 T Key Levels - - Support: $2.20T (critical) - Resistance: $2.45T (psychological barrier) 📈 Bullish Scenario Entry: Above $2.22T confirmation Targets: $2.40 T → $2.70 T Catalyst: Breakout from consolidation _____________________ 📉 Bearish Scenario Below $2.20 T breakdown - 1 day close _____________________ 🔍 Key Observations - 1/ Market consolidating after recent volatility 2/ Awaiting clear breakout direction 3/ Monitor BTC dominance for sector rotation clues _____________________ ⚠️ Upcoming Catalysts - 1/ Macroeconomic data releases 2/ SEC crypto regulation updates 3/ Institutional flow changes GOOD LUCK * PLEASE FOLLOW FOR MORE :) 💡
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ONE1iMPACT
TOTAL Crypto Market. Games with the 800-Pound Gorilla. Series IIOver the 4 months since Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, his administration’s policies have had a complex and in many ways negative impact on cryptocurrency markets, despite the overall pro-crypto agenda. Short-Term Market Volatility Due to Tariff Policy One of the most significant negative impacts has been caused by Trump’s aggressive tariff policy. The announcement and subsequent implementation of new tariffs sent shock waves through global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The immediate effect has been increased volatility, with Bitcoin down a third from its highs, Ethereum and many other major coins also falling by more than half, and crypto futures seeing liquidations of over $450 million in a single day. This turbulence was not isolated — experts noted that broader “risk aversion,” in which investors flee volatile assets for safer havens like gold, led to sharp declines in both the stock and crypto markets. Uncertainty around tariffs — particularly reciprocal tariffs affecting up to 25 countries — created short-term headwinds for cryptocurrencies. As institutional and foreign investors pulled billions out of U.S. stocks, the resulting market volatility spilled over to cryptocurrency, which remains closely tied to tech indexes like the NASDAQ. This risk aversion delayed potential rallies and led to a volatile, unpredictable trading environment. Regulatory Rollbacks and Market Integrity Concerns The Trump administration has aggressively rolled back regulatory oversight in an attempt to create a more crypto-friendly environment. Key steps include disbanding the Justice Department’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET), appointing pro-crypto officials to regulatory bodies, and directing agencies to streamline or repeal existing crypto regulations. While these actions have reduced the compliance burden on crypto businesses and spurred innovation, they have also raised serious concerns about the integrity of the market. Critics argue that loosening oversight increases the risks of money laundering, fraud, and illegal transactions, which could undermine investor protections and the overall reputation of U.S. crypto markets. Consumer advocacy groups warn that rapid deregulation could encourage abuse and undermine trust, especially since the Trump administration has also banned the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), setting the U.S. apart from other major economies pursuing digital currency initiatives. Conflicts of Interest and Ethical Controversies Another negative impact has been the perception — if not the reality — of conflicts of interest and ethical dilemmas. The Trump family’s direct involvement in crypto projects, including the launch of a stablecoin and investments in mining, has fueled suspicions of market manipulation and blurred the lines between personal and presidential interests. Such controversies have further undermined investor confidence and contributed to a sense of unpredictability in regulatory and market outcomes. Summary Table: Key Negative Impacts Policy/Action =>> Negative impact on crypto markets Rising Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty =>> Increased volatility, risk aversion, falling prices. Regulatory Rollbacks/NCET Dissolution =>> Weakened oversight, higher risk of fraud and abuse. CBDC Development Ban =>> US Lagging Global Digital Currency Innovation Trump Family’s Direct Involvement in Crypto =>> Alleged Conflicts of Interest, Market Manipulation Concerns. Technical Challenge The technical picture in the main crypto market cap chart CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL points to the end of the recovery period, reaching a key resistance near the $3.5 trillion mark. Conclusion While the Trump administration has promoted a more liberal environment for crypto innovation, the last four months have seen significant negative effects: increased market volatility due to tariff policy, increased risk due to deregulation, and growing concerns about conflicts of interest. These factors have combined to create an atmosphere of uncertainty and skepticism, which is undermining the stability and trust in the US crypto markets in the short term. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by PandorraResearch
Alt season already over? Or just about to begin? In the chart above the purple lines represent the previous Total Market Cap tops in the previous bull runs. The yellow lines represent the periods of alt season runs and where bitcoin dominance shot down. Now, the last purple line is definitely not a certainty and more of just a possibility given the bearish divergence. Each time the market has ever had bearish divergence in the Total Market Cap weekly chart it represented the top of the bull run... That doesn't mean it will this time of course. We'll see. If we break above previous Total Market Cap highs from last Nov/Dec maybe we will see the new alt season? I would like to see us break that with some volume before I start dumping any money into alts myself. As the previous bull run high didn't show much support when it was tested in March/April and the current move up is still declining in volume and on a bearish divergence... GL!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Weavs844
Crypto Total Market Cap🚨 CHART ANALYSIS + WARNING 🚨 Crypto Total Market Cap (4W Chart) From what I’m seeing — and I don’t say this lightly — we are possibly witnessing the setup for the greatest bull run in crypto history. Let me break this down with some actual chart work: 📊 Market Analysis: • We're currently bouncing off the 0.382 Fib level (~2.86T) and pushing toward the 0.618 zone (~3.19T) — a classic move in Fibonacci-based rallies. • The candle structure shows strong momentum, with a potential retest and breakthrough of the 2024 high just above 3.73T. • Momentum candles like this don’t just show up — this suggests institutional flow or macro sentiment is quietly building behind the scenes. • If we clear that zone, the door opens for a full extension move beyond 4T+, with market psychology shifting from fear to greed. ⚠️ But here’s the real play: While the price is moving bullish, scammers are too. The market cycles aren't just financial — they're emotional. Hype = theft opportunities. So protect yourself. 🧠 What You Should Do: • Move tokens OFF exchanges — centralized platforms are targets during bull runs. • Use a hardware wallet — Ledger, Trezor, Tangem, whatever you're comfortable with. • Don't chase pumps blindly. Read structure, respect the cycle. 🔥 What’s coming isn’t just a wave — it’s a storm. But storms grow seeds if you’re rooted. Again, not financial advice. Just someone who’s been here before and sees the setup forming.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MoNi_MoN
Bull Trap or Bear Bait? The Real Agenda Behind the Crypto PumpThe market just printed a powerful pump—and traders are standing at the edge of uncertainty. What if the bears are right? What if this sudden surge was nothing more than a carefully staged bull trap, luring buyers into FOMO entries, only to dump hard and leave them holding the bag? Or maybe… What if this was a setup for the bears? A calculated move to bait sellers into opening shorts, before a single violent candle wipes them out, triggering mass liquidations on the way up. It’s a psychological battleground—buyers and sellers clashing at a critical zone. So, what’s really going on? Is this a trap to crush longs, or a setup to punish the shorts? Let’s break it down. What do you think? Vote below: Bull Trap / Bear Bait? Follow for real-time analysis as this plays out
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by PetrockTheAnalyst