MARKETS week ahead: July 8 – 14Last week in the news
The non-farm payrolls and unemployment data shaped investors sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. Friday was the day of significant volatility, which brought US Treasury yields down to the level of 4.28%. Weakening of the US Dollar pushed the price of gold to higher grounds, ending the week at level of $2.391. The US equity markets were also supported by the market sentiment on a Fed`s potential rate cut in September, where S&P 500 reached a new all time highest level. The crypto market was the only one which was traded on a negative side. The BTC was testing levels around the $ 54K, however, ending the week around $58K.
The most important macro figures for the week were posted on Friday. The non-farm payrolls for June surged to 206K, significantly above market estimated 190K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was increased to 4.1% in June from 4.0% posted in May. These figures increased market optimism that the Fed still might cut rates in September, as they suggest that job openings have improved, but the employment trend is still modestly weakening. Increased unemployment rate also indicates that the inflator pressures coming from the job market should continue cooling down, which implies a potential for a rate cut during the course of this year. September still holds as the current estimate of the majority of market participants.
During the week Tesla reported its Q2 vehicle deliveries figures which were significantly higher from the market estimate. This made an impact on the price of Tesla`s shares which gained 27% during the week. However, with this significant increase, Tesla managed to cover losses for this year. The share price reached $251.55, while they ended the year 2023 at level of $248.48.
The crypto market was shaken during the week, after the news was released that the bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox will pay out around $9 billion to its affected users. The payouts already started in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash to some creditors through a number of crypto exchangers. The rest of funds will be distributed when “conditions are met” in terms of validity of registered accounts. As analysts are noting, this significantly increased number of coins on the market will put selling pressure on BTC.
As Reuters is reporting, the government of Peru announced that it will receive around $300 million credit over a period of 15 years in order to support the digital transformation of the country. Peru`s creditor is German KfW Development Bank. Further details on digital transformation have not been disclosed. At the same time, Peru is the third country in the world by the production of copper, while its economy grew between 4.5% and 5.0% on a yearly basis in May.
Crypto market cap
The final breakthrough of pressures on the crypto market occurred during the previous week. The crypto market has been slowing down for the last three weeks, while there are several reasons behind it which collide together within the short time frame.
The latest news from the previous week is that bankrupt crypto exchanger Mt. Gox announced that it will return to creditors some $9 billion through Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash. Market participants knew that this amount would put a huge selling pressure on BTC and the crypto market, so the final selloff was triggered. The selling pressure from crypto miners is another aspect to consider.
Traditionally, this sale reaches its maximum during the summer time, where it has been estimated that this year only, crypto miners sold around 40.000 BTC worth around $2.5 billion. A continuous drop in BTC price pushed the funds from crypto based ETF`s where they for the first time became net sellers instead of net buyers. In addition to that, it should be considered the announcement from the German government that it will sell its BTC holding worth around $2.8 billion.
And, on top of it, it should be taken into account that a strong drop in the value of BTC and other altcoins triggered margin calls for leveraged positions. The combination of all these effects, pushed the total crypto market cap down by 6% as of the end of this week, wiping out some $124B in value. It should be noted that during the week, the crypto market cap dropped by $170B in one moment.
Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $124B on a daily basis, from $94B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $443B, which represents a 27% surge from the beginning of this year.
The coin which dragged the crypto market to the downside during the previous week was BTC. It lost around 5% in the value, erasing $57.8B from its market cap. ETH naturally took the second place, with a drop in value of 9.7%, decreasing its cap by $39.5B. Binance Coin was also among significant weekly losers, by decreasing its cap by more than 8%, wiping $6.8B from its cap. XRP was down by 6.2%, where it lost $1.6B from its market cap. Significant losers in relative terms were, among others, Litecoin with a drop of 13.7% w/w, NEO was down by 12.7%, OMG Network lost almost 11% , same as Filecoin.
Interestingly, there have been only a few coins which managed to end the week at a higher level on a weekly basis. Polkadot managed to increase its cap by 2.5% on a weekly basis, while Tron was higher by 3.4% for the week. It should also be mentioned Solana, which ended the week relatively flat, same as Algorand.
Tether was a coin which lost 0.5% of its circulating coins, decreasing by this percentage its total market capitalization. On the other side were Algorand and Filecoin, which both increased the number of their coins on the market by 0.3%. Maker added 0.2% of new coins to the market.
Crypto futures market
Crypto futures also reacted to developments from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower from the week before. BTC short term futures ended the week by some 8% on average. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $56.800 or 8.85% lower from the week before. December 2025 closed the week at $65.215 or 6% lower on a weekly basis.
Similar situation was with ETH futures, but with higher weekly drop in future levels. Short term ones were traded around 10% lower, while those with longer maturities were down by more than 11%. ETH futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.117, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.339.
