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MARKETS week ahead: May 6 – 12Last week in the news As it was expected, the Fed held interest rates without change at their FOMC meeting held on 1st May. Market nervousness prior to the meeting brought back some higher volatility. The USD modestly weakened, while gold ended the week testing $2.3K level. The US Treasury yields dropped after the FOMC meeting trading session and especially weaker than expected US jobs for April, reaching 4.5%. Weaker jobs data supported positive sentiment for the US equities, where S&P 500 was brought back to the level of 5.120. The crypto market had another highly volatile week, but still manages to end it with a little change from the week before. Bitcoin slipped to the $57K support, but dip buyers managed to return the price above the $63K during the weekend. The major event during the previous week was the FOMC Meeting, held on 1st May. The Fed's rate decision and a view on current economic developments was widely expected by the market, considering inflation in the US, which is picking up slowly. This was acknowledged by the Fed, as well as a still strong labour market. Still, they noticed that the economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in Q1. The Fed continues to hold on to their 2.0% inflation target, in which sense, the first rate cut might be, and most probably, will be postponed. At this moment, no one could provide information with high certainty whether there will be one rate cut during this year, but the markets are currently estimating September with a 54% probability, while the majority of market participants switched their view on December this year. While the US is delaying rate cuts, the market is expecting to see the ECB to cut interest rates at their June meeting. Economists are now discussing that such a course of action would weaken the euro which might put pressure on the growth of the Euro Area. At the same time, a small rate cut will most certainly not impact any significant credit demand, in which sense, it will not provide too much assistance to companies operating within the Euro Area. Another relevant news for the previous week was that the co-founder and ex-CEO of Binance crypto exchange was sentenced with four months in prison, after pleading guilty for money laundering at his crypto exchange. Although it was expected that he would get at least three years of prison sentence, the court took into account CZ`s deal with the U.S. government in November last year and a settlement of $4.3 billion. At the same time, experts are noting that his personal wealth, estimated at $33 billion, would not be affected by the court decision. There have been a lot of discussions during the previous period regarding the sale of investment units from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and its impact on the price of BTC. As news is reporting, Grayscale finally experienced the first total funds inflow, after quite a long time of funds outflow. As Farside Investors are reporting, there has been a total $63 million in inflows during Friday. As a reminder, Grayscale was the first BTC fund, but due to its high fees, the funds BTC holdings decreased from 600.000 down to 290.000 since the first BTC ETF was approved. Crypto market cap Market nervousness regarding Fed's next moves in light of inflation pick-up was also evident on the crypto market during the previous week. Namely, as frenzy over crypto ETF`s and BTC halving is over, the crypto market, and especially BTC, are returning to the general market sensitivity to macro developments. Right before the FOMC meeting, BTC reverted to the down side and reached levels below $57K within quite a short time. After the meeting Fed Chair Powell's speech brought back some investors into the crypto market, while weekend trading pushed the crypto market to levels above the end of the week before. Although it was extremely volatile week, still, total crypto market capitalization was increased by 1% from the end of the week before, where it has been added total $32B. Daily trading volumes were also increased to the level of $130B on a daily basis, from $104B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $655B, which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year. The majority of altcoins were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. During the week BTC was on a losing side, however, weekend trading brought back its market cap to the previous levels, and even increased it by 1.6%, adding total $ 20B to its total market value. On the opposite side Ether did not manage to regain previous strength, and ended the week around 1.4% lower from the week before, losing around $5.6B in value. This time major altcoins were among higher gainers. In this sense, Solana was leading the altcoin market with an increase in value of 7.3% w/w, adding total $4.5B to its market cap. DOGE was another altcoin with significant weekly performance, with an increase in value of 12.6% adding total $2.6B to its cap. This week XRP managed to add $1.17B to its value, increasing it by more than 4% w/w. Relatively solid weekly performers in relative terms had Bitcoin Gold, which increased its cap by 8.4%, Pokladot surged by 8.5%, Filecoin was up by almost 8%, while Polygon was up by 5.3%. Several coins were on a losing side, like NEO, with a decrease in value of 4%, Uniswap was down by 1.5%, while Litecoin was down by 2.5%. Developments within circulating coins relaxed a bit during the previous week. Ether decreased the number of its coins on the market by 1.6%, which is not so frequently seen. Miota had an increase in its coins in circulation by 0.6%, the same as traditionally, Filecoin. Tether increased its market cap and number of coins in circulation by 0.2% this week. Crypto futures market For another week in a row major developments on the crypto market were occurring during the weekend trading sessions, hence, futures from Friday`s trading on the CME are not fully reflecting the actual developments on the crypto spot market. In this sense, Monday trading sessions on the futures market might bring some corrections. BTC short term futures ended the week around 1.8% lower from the week before, while those maturing within a longer time frame, were last traded lower by more than 8%. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $62.590, and those maturing a year later closed the week at price $67.250. ETH short term futures were last traded down by around 1% on average, while those with longer maturity were down by more than 5%. ETH futures maturing in December 2024 closed the week at $3.138, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.297.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
📉 TOTAL Market Update 📉Yesterday's sharp selloff saw TOTAL market capitalization drop from $2.3T to $2.13T. Today's FOMC meeting could exacerbate downside pressure. Support Levels: Immediate support: Bottom of the current range at around $2.054T. Further support: $1.80T - $1.95T (daily 200 MA) if $2.054T is breached. Market Outlook: May historically experiences trading challenges, often characterized by choppiness. 📈💡 Stay cautious and monitor market developments closely! #MarketUpdate #TradingInsights 🌐📊
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Richtv_official
1
Cryptocurrencies Making Deeper PullbackHey traders! The US dollar is advancing, make cryptocurrencies weak as stocks market turns south ahead of key economic data from the US. As you know, the Fed will release its latest decision on interest rate policy today, and there is increasing speculation that they will maintain their current stance for a longer period. This anticipation is driving the US dollar higher while stocks are declining, and cryptocurrencies are also turning to the downside. Looking at the total market cap, we are observing a potential breakout from the wave B triangle, after only a three-wave rise from the April 13th lows, indicating a correction, ideally it represented subwave (C) within a triangle. If our analysis is correct, then current thrust out of the triangle could still be representing the final leg of this whole correction from March. However, there is still room to drop even to 1.9 trillion before potential support is found. A reversal and a significant bounce back to 1.23 trillion would be necessary for bulls to wake up, which is crucial if you are a short-term trader.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ew-forecast
3
Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Caution Advised Amid GeopoliticaThe total cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, with the support level of $2.17 trillion under threat. Should this support break, we anticipate a potential decline to around $1.8 trillion. Given the current geopolitical situation, the associated risks are heightened, making any long positions particularly precarious. It is advisable for investors to exercise extreme caution under these conditions. The ongoing war has instilled significant instability across global financial markets, which could lead to substantial drops. For this week, we recommend minimizing risk exposure in your trading strategies to safeguard against volatile market movements.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Lamassu_Trade
MARKETS week ahead: April 29 – May 4Last week in the news Latest PCE data in the US are showing persistent inflation, decreasing inventor’s expectations of a potential three rate cuts during this year. US Treasury yields reacted to change in sentiment, where the 10Y benchmark reached its weekly highest level at 4.73%. Decrease of geopolitical risks in the Middle East impact short reversal in the gold price, ending the week at $2.337. The US equities were traded in a mixed manner, but still, the S & P 500 advanced more than 2.7% on a weekly basis. The crypto market has had a relatively volatile week, with BTC shortly slipping to levels below $63K during weekend trading. On 1st may Fed's rate decision is scheduled, which might bring back some higher volatility on the market. Inflation continues to be the main concern of investors in the US. As per Fed`s favourite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index was increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis in March, slightly higher from the market expectations of 2.7%. On the other hand, posted data show that the personal saving rate dropped 0.4pp in March, which was a decrease of 2 % compared to last year. Investors decreased their expectations of potential three rate cuts to only two during the course of this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate. At the same time, consumers are not giving up on spending. As per latest data, Personal spending is up by 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, while dip in savings shows most probably that consumers are currently digging into their savings in order to make purchases. A new package of laws has been adopted in the European Parliament during the previous week with the aim to further strengthen the regulation related to anti money laundering. The new laws are also addressing large cash payments and crypto companies, among others. By new laws, “obliged entities”, including crypto firms, will be obliged to report suspicious activities, as they are defined by laws. News is reporting that ARK Invest sold the last of its BITO holdings of around $6.7 million on Thursday. The shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF were bought during the end of last year in anticipation of the approval of the first spot BTC ETF on the market. Just to note that the fund founded its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with the aim to invest in spot BTC. A Pennsylvania based Republic First Bank is the first bank in the US in 2024 to be seized by regulators. Namely, all business news are reporting that this bank has been seized by Philadelphia authorities on Friday. During the previous period, the Bank was looking for a potential buyer, where Fulton Bank had reached an agreement with FDIC to take over a total 32 branches of the Republic First Bank. The shares of the troubled bank were traded down by 60% on Friday. As news is reporting the bank had about $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits as of the end of January this year. Crypto market cap As frenzy over Bitcoin halving ended during the previous week, the crypto market is slowly returning to its “old” trading mode. Speculative positions have been closed, which pushed modestly the price of BTC toward the downside during the whole previous week. Selling orders were prevailing, supporting price volatility. Although it might sound like a paradox, analysts are still in agreement that this is positive for BTC, as it needs to finish one cycle in order to start a new one. As of the weekend, total crypto market capitalization dropped by 2% compared to the week before, where around $57B was wiped out from the market. This decrease was led by BTC as the coin lost $ 41B in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, where during the previous week they were moving around $104B, which is a drop from $128B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $623B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year. Weekend trading session brought another losing session for BTC. It`s value dropped by 3.2% on a weekly basis, dragging market cap down by $41B. On the opposite side, ETH managed to add to its value during the week, increasing it by 1.6%, adding $6.2B to its market cap. Altcoins were also traded in a mixed manner during the week. There was a sort of equal number of both gaining and losing coins on a weekly basis. Among gainers was Tron, which increased its cap by 8.5% during the week. Binance Coin managed to hold its value relatively steady, increasing it by modest 1.5%. Algorand managed to gain 3.25% during the week. On the opposite side some of the major altcoins were traded down during the week. Solana lost 8.4% in value, losing $5.6B in market cap. DOGE was traded down by more than 10%, decreasing its value by $2.38B. Cardano joined the group of losing coins, with a total drop of 9.2% or $1.6B on a weekly basis. One of the highest losers in relative terms was Filecoin, with a total drop of 12%. During the previous week there has been a lot of developments when it comes to the number of circulating coins. For the first time in a while, there has been a significant increase of Ethereum`s coins in circulation by even 1.6% on a weekly basis. Litecoin is also one which should be especially mentioned, as this coin had a surge of its coins on the market by 4.2%. Filecoin added a new 0.6% of coins. On the opposite side were Monero and Binance Coin, which significantly decreased their number of coins on the market. Monero had a drop of 5.1%, while BNB`s were down by 1.3% within a single week. Crypto futures market Although crypto futures were holding relatively steady during the previous week, still, the major development which occurred during the weekend, have not been priced on a Friday`s closing on the CME. In this sense, some drop in BTC`s short term futures is possible with a first trading day on Monday. BTC short term futures ended the previous week with a drop of around 0.3% on a weekly basis. At the same time, the long term ones were last traded higher by around 1.6%. Futures maturing in December this year were closed at price $68.520, while those maturing a year later were traded at $73.330. ETH futures had an increase for all maturities. The short term ones were traded higher by around 2.0%, while those maturing with a longer maturity period were traded around 3.0% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 closed the week at price $3.337, and December 2025 was last traded at price $3.481.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
4 Market Cap charts and SMA & VRVP- A Warning for Lower Cap ALTSThe Main Chart is the TOTAL Crypto Market Cap and it shows us how the Market is sitting on the Daily POC ( Red Dotted line ) off the VRVP and is gettign sandwiched between the 50 SMA ( RED) Above and the 100 ( BLUE ) Below. - All in all, After the weeks of Ranging, The PA is in Good shape but that VRVP doe sshow resistance over head and possible Lack of support below. TOTAL2 Daily chart below Again, PA is loosely sandwiched between the 50 and 100 SMA but the point to note here is how far below the POC ( point of control ) PA is. Signifies a weakness in ETH compared to BTC TOTAL3 Dail;y chart below - TOTAL3 shows the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and ETH. Again, PA finds itself in a position to get squeezed by the 50 and 100 SMA but one VERY noticeable difference is that PA is ABOVE the POC. This shows us that the Bigger ALT coins could drop further but there is support below. I would also interpret this to show that ETH and its ALTS are the weaker compared to other Chains. OTHERS Daily chart below - #THE ONE TO SEE HERE - OTHERS shows the total market capitalization of the top-125 cryptocurrencies, excluding BTC and some other top cryptocurrencies. The Thing to see here above all else is how the PA has already dropped BELOW the 100 SMA ( blue) - It has not done that on any other the other charts. This shows us the bigger Loss is on the ALTS compared to BTC. Again, you'll notice how the PA is below the POC. The conclusion I draw from this is simply that BITCOIN is holding the market in higher Value than anything else. The ETH charts are weaker and below the POC ( point of control ) on the VRVP. Definition. Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) indicator calculates the volume profile within the visible range of prices, making it an ideal tool for traders who want to analyze the most recent market trends This simplified Point of Control (POC) indicator for TradingView is designed to identify and plot the price level where the highest volume of trading occurred over a specified period. The Idea of ALT Season that so many have called is FLAWED> We are no where near that yet.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Orriginal
Did you buy the ''Dip'' this time around? Just an update post pre-halving KeKers' scamming FUD... rekt already! Same narrative. Booting out fiats. #SySytem_Web3_Alternative_Intelligence taking control. Did you DYOR for real this time around or did you just dismissed all of this as insanity once again? Please refere to my main manifesto dated February 18th, 2024 to catch up from here. Just adding on homework for you here. You can watch this on Prime: - Creating Freedom: The Lottery of Birth OMS (aka Baba in chat)
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Operation_Morning_Star
MARKETS week ahead: April 22 – 27Last week in the news Higher for longer was for one more time rhetoric which influenced market sentiment during the previous week. In expectation of less rate cuts during this year, the US equities entered into the correction mode, with the S&P 500 ending the week at level of 4.967. The US Treasuries had another relatively strong week, where 10Y benchmark sustained levels above 4.6%. The price of gold remained under the influence of geopolitics, while the US Dollar also held in strength during the week. The crypto market was recovering from a strong sell-off two weeks ago, but still sustained relatively higher volatility in expectation of Bitcoin halving, which occurred this weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week above the $ 65K levels. The US economy continues to show its resilience to tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was much higher from market estimate of 0.3%. This was another issue for markets, considering its potential impact on inflation in the coming period. Markets are currently losing positive sentiment, and adjusting positions accordingly, in expectation that three rate cuts will not occur during the course of this year. CNBC spoke with leading ECB economists during the IMF Spring Meeting in New York, held last week. The ECB President Lagarde once again noted her standing from the last ECB meeting, that it could be expected first rate cut in June within the European Zone, in case that inflation continues to move with a clear down trend. However, in case of some extreme shocks, the rates might stay on hold. She noted this disclaimer considering recent negative developments in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices. Also, other twelve members of the Council Board were in agreement with such a course of action in June, and also aligned with potential threats coming from geopolitical issues. Quite a positive sentiment came last week from CEO of VanEck fund, Jan van Eck. He noted in his opinion that the world economy is starting its new growth phase, putting special emphasis on China, and suggested that investors should eye commodities now. At the same time, it should be noted that his funds have large exposures toward commodities, including gold and copper. The long awaited Bitcoin halving started early Saturday, where the 840.000th block was added to the blockchain. Fees already soared while at the same time a new Bitcoin-based system was launched. The name of the new system is Runes. Although BTC`s price was relatively volatile during the week, still the BTC held strongly around the level of $65K. Still, whales took the chance to buy the BTC dip at $60K. News are reporting that a total of $1.2B worth of BTC was bought during this time. Crypto market cap Bitcoin halving took place. Markets were waiting with anticipation for this event, considering that no one was really sure where the price might go prior to halving. On one side were analysts who were noting a possibility that the price might significantly drop, while on the other side were the ones noting that the price will hold and move further to the upside in the coming period. Now that the event passed, we know that the price managed to hold around $ 65K, although there had been some prior higher volatility. BTC whales took the opportunity to buy the dip and increase their positions in this coin. Two weeks ago, there was a huge sell off on the crypto market, however, the situation relatively stabilized during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by modest 1% on a weekly level, losing a total $25B. Daily trading volumes decreased to the level of $128B on a daily basis, from $131B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $680B, which represents a 42% surge from the beginning of this year. Although the majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside, BTC and ETH are the ones which lost in value on a weekly basis. BTC dropped by a modest 2.3%, where the coin lost around $30B in the market cap. ETH was down by 1.2%, where around $4.8B was a decrease in its market capitalisation. Bitcoin Gold also lost some of its value during the week, dropping its market cap by 3%. There were several altcoins, who ended the week in red, like Monero, Binance Coin and Tron, but the drop was less than 1% in value. Majority of altcoins were leading the market to the upside. In this sense, Cardano increased its market cap by $1.1B, which is an increase of 6.5% on a weekly basis. Polkadot should be especially mentioned as the coin added more than $ 3B to the total crypto market cap, increasing its own by 4.2%. Solana also added $ 3B which is an increase of 4.7% on a weekly level for this coin. Among excellent weekly performers in relative terms were Filecoin and Maker, where both managed to increase market cap by more than 11%. Interestingly, THETA was one of coins who managed to add 10.5% to its market value. Other altcoins were mostly traded higher between 2% and 8% on a weekly level. Relatively stronger developments continue when coins in circulation are in question. During the previous week Filecoin added 0.4% of new coins on the market, while Miota`s number of coins were higher by 0.6%. Certainly, this week's winner was Monero, with an increase in circulating coins by 5.4%. On the opposite side was Litecoin, who, this time, decreased its coins on the market by even 4%. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, there were some major developments on the crypto futures market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower for all maturities. It should be taken into account that CME was closed during the weekend, in which sense, developments during the weekend are still not fully priced in futures. In this sense, some increase in futures prices are possible in Monday trading sessions. BTC short term futures were last traded by some 5% lower from the end of the week before, while the longer term ones were down by less than 10%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $67.450, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $72.160. This was a significant drop, considering that two weeks ago these futures were traded at $80.095 for the first time in history. ETH short term futures were also down by some 4% on average, while the major drop was with the longer term ones, which closed the week down by some 12.8% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the price at $3.246, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.377.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Post Bitcoin Halving, is it time for ALTS now ? This is something I am seeing so many people asking and the only Answer is, "It is impossible to say jsut yet. Historically, if we look at the BTC.Dominacne Chart below, we can see that, on average, iit is around 200 days after Halving that we see ALTS seasons. This does not follow that Bitcoin outperform all ALTS however and it is worth noting that Just because BTC.D Drops, BTC PA does not always follow, in fact, in times of strength, is creates Divergences. But something to take note of right now is simply that on a Daily chart, the TOTAL Crypto market Cap has retraced to sit on the 236 Fib retracenebt line. ( below ) and is currently bouncing off it. On the other hand, the OTHERS total crypto Market Cap chart ( Minus TOP 10 Crypto ) shows us that it has retraced to BELOW the 236 Fib Line. (below) This maybe a tough line for OTHERS to cross, even more so if the Supply of BTC is getting Tight, no one is selling and so liquidity is not spreading across from BTC to ALTS and we also find new Liquidity entering the market getting scarce as the USA monetary policy keep interest rates high for the foreseeable Future. . So where does this leave us ? With All the TOTAL charts Ranging ? This is a possibility but I can see the Bitcoin "formula" working as it always has....We may see another 200 day Range, With BTC being Top, maybe even pushing to a new ATH. 100K USDT is certainly a possibility as Corporate money flows in, We have seen profit taking, the sell off of Greyscale BTC that has been soaked up and yet PA continues to range. Bitcoin is Still in control. We need to pay attention to the OTERS to see how that copes with the 236 Fib line but , for me, and this is just my opinion, we are now wgere near ALT season yet. Time will tell
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Orriginal