MARKETS week ahead: August 26 – 31Last week in the news
“The time has come for policy to adjust” were the words of Fed Chair Powell which marked the previous week impacting strongly market sentiment. Almost all markets reacted positively to a potential Feds pivoting point, with S&P 500 gaining 1,45% for the week and nearing its all time highest level from July this year. The US Dollar continued to lose strength, supporting the price of gold, which gained 1% during the week, ending it with a new ATH at the level of $2.530. In a quest for riskier assets, the crypto market also gained, with BTC reaching levels modestly below the $ 65K resistance line. The 10Y US Treasuries dropped to the level of 3,79% as of the end of the week.
The main event during the previous week was a Wyoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Powell held a speech. Each year this event is closely watched by markets in order to get a glimpse of potential future policy moves. This year's symposium was especially important, as Fed Chair Powell for the first time used the wording “the time has come for policy to adjust”, as inflation of 2,5% is on a track of Feds targeted 2%. This was a confirmation of market expectations that the potential first rate cut might occur at September's FOMC meeting. It should be noted that Fed Chair Powell did not comment on the exact timing of the policy adjustment, nor for how many basis points. The market is currently occupied with a question whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points.
Guests at the Jackson Hole Symposium were also representatives of the European Central Bank. its Chief economist, Philip Lane noted that the ECB is doing a good job in bringing inflation down to targeted 2%, however, the return to this target is still not assured. On the other side are analysts who are betting that the ECB would have to cut in September and again in December, considering that the environment of high interest rates is already significantly hurting growth of the EuroZone.
The CrowdStrike outage occurred this year, affecting millions of computers using Microsoft operating systems, and left a major question over the security and stability of operating programs like MS. In order to discuss challenges like this, Microsoft is organizing a cybersecurity event with CrowdStriek and other security companies in order to discuss potential solutions so that such events never again happen in the future. The conference will be held in September at MS campus in Redmond.
In a run for presidency, Donald Trump is certainly counting on the crypto community. As news are reporting, he first proclaimed himself as pro-crypto candidate, and now he is promoting a family-run DeFi project “The DeFiant ones” on his social platform. Although the platform is still pending official launch, there are already 40.000 followers subscribed.
Crypto market cap
The Fed Chair Powell mimicking potential rate cut in the coming period, at Jackson Hole Symposium was also positive for the crypto market. As investors are expecting that the environment of decreasing interest rates would impact funds currently placed at money market funds at rates around 5% would soon start to seek asset classes where they can make higher profits. One of such asset classes is certainly the crypto coins, especially BTC and ETH which entered into the mainstream through exchange traded funds. Although the crypto market spends the first half of the week at side trading, still at the end of the week the crypto market is finishing mostly within green territory. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 9%, mostly as of the end of the week, adding $177B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased to the level of $160B on a daily basis, compared to $ 95B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $589B, which represents a 36% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins finished the week in green. The market was led by BTC, which increased its market cap by $97B or 8.3% on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, which managed to add $22.4B to its total market cap, increasing it by 7.1%. XRP should be mentioned as the coin added almost $ 3B to its value within a single week, increasing it by 9.3%. This week Tether managed to add a figure above $ 1B to its cap, which was a weekly increase of 0.9%. Cardano performed very well during the week, with an increase of $2.3B in the value or 19.3%. Binance Coin was also one of the significant weekly winners, with a surge in value of $7.3B or 9.3%. Market bellowed Solana was also in the spotlight, as the coin added almost $ 10B to its market cap, which was an increase of almost 15% w/w. Polygon had an incredible week, with a surge of almost 42% in value. There are a significant number of other altcoins which managed to gain more than 20% on a weekly basis. Interestingly, there were also only a few weekly losers, like Bitcoin Gold, which was down by 9% w/w, or ZCash, dropping by 1.4%.
There has also been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. The highest weekly gainer is certainly Tether, with a surge of 0.9% of circulating coins on a weekly basis. IOTA is also posting some increased activity lately, with a weekly increase of 0.6% of circulating coins. This week Polygon and Filecoin added 0.3% more coins to the market, while Polkadot added 0.2% more coins.
Crypto futures market
This week the crypto futures market managed to align with the spot market and follow the investors sentiment. Both BTC and ETH futures posted an increase in futures value from the previous week. BTC both short and long term futures were traded by around 7% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year posted an increase of almost 10% on a weekly basis, ending the week at the level of $65.735. Futures maturing a year later were last traded at price $72.692.
Similar situation was with ETH futures. The short term ones were traded higher by more than 5% on a weekly basis, while the longer term ones were traded higher by some 4.6%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $2.855, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.044.
TOTAL trade ideas
The Biggest Crash Since The Bear-Market (Bitcoin & The Altcoins)We are about to reach the climax of the 2024 Cryptocurrency market correction...
How are you doing today?
By the time you read this it will be Sunday... And trouble is approaching the market.
Bitcoin's 2024 Capitulation Event is here and it won't affect only Bitcoin, the entire market will suffer.
Money is being withdrawn from the Altcoins, all of them.
Many altcoins were looking good and remaining strong even while Bitcoin moved up, or down, but now everything is starting to slow down. This is the most revealing signal of all.
The crash is obvious so we do not need to focus on that part, let's focus on how the Altcoins will react instead.
➖ The Cryptocurrency Apocalypse ➖
Day 1. Nobody saw it coming... At first, just blank, not much action, kind of boring or a feeling of anticipation... The calm before the storm.
Day 2. It is happening... 95% of the market participants still claiming "the start of the bull-market" as they were doing in March, and another portion claiming, "New All-Time High" and "Bitcoin $100K." Billions will be liquidated in a flash.
Day 3. The crash is on... Prices are dropping, people start to awaken to what is happening; fear, panic; sell the house, sell everything; buy-dip, false breakdown, 1 BTC = 1 BTC....
Day 4. Bitcoin hits a new low... "How far down will it go?" "Will it hit $10K?" "OMG!!!"
Day 5. The slow recovery starts... Bitcoin will experience long-term growth. At this point, the majority of the people fold, lose hope, faith and simply sell —at the bottom.
Day 6. Strong recovery.
Each day can be worth 3 days... More or less. But the whole dynamic should play within 1-3 weeks. Interesting to watch is the biggest understatement in the history of life. It will be the most fascinating event ever, to see the upcoming crash and the worldwide reaction.
What will be the catalyst?
What type of news headlines will we get?
(Share some of your guesses in the comment section.)
➖ Altcoins Market Reaction ➖
Enough of that let's get serious.
I already mentioned this in several articles but understandably not everybody reads everything so let's recap.
1) Many altcoins already hit bottom. While they will turn red, it won't be a big event for these but only a retrace before maximum growth. This portion of the market will recover fast.
2) A second group, mid-size, are good but have not bottomed and so will move to produce a lower low but will recover fast as well.
3) The last group are the giants... These have to go through a painful correction because they are still trading high up.
Everything crashes at first; those big take longer to recover, those smaller recover faster. That's it keeping it simple.
If you agree, leave a comment.
If you disagree, leave two comments.
Namaste.
TOTAL Analysis by the Mallicast Team AnalystsWhile the Total Index was unable to surpass its previous yearly highs, the Mallicast team predicts a corrective decline down to 2.151T. After this correction, they expect the index to reach its short-term peak at 2.306T and accumulate the necessary liquidity.
TOTAL Analysis by the Mallicast Team AnalystsWhile the Total Index was unable to surpass its previous yearly highs, the Mallicast team predicts a corrective decline down to 2.151T. After this correction, they expect the index to reach its short-term peak at 2.306T and accumulate the necessary liquidity.
Crypto total market cap direction is still higher.Want to make that post, a bit contrarian, my timeline is filled by bearish post about world war, recession and pandemic.
I'm probably too optimist or dumb for that.
All crisis were priced in one day.
Market recovering, gold ATH indicates liquidity inflow and interest rates going down.
Up is the way, maybe not that immediate or high.
Long-Term BULL | Bitcoin & The Altcoins Market 2025My dear reader... Join me for a few minutes for a very important discussion... It is regarding our future; the future of Crypto; the future of Bitcoin; the future of the Altcoins market.
How are you feeling in this beautiful Full Moon Monday?
I am hoping you are having a wonderful day.
How much time do we have left in 2024?
If we skip August, for ease of counting, and because it is already halfway through, we have only four months left in 2024; that is, September, October, November and December.
➢ Bitcoin and the Altcoins market is going to be awesome in the year 2025.
It doesn't matter what happens short-term...
It doesn't matter if the situation becomes good or bad in late 2024...
We are certain to experience absolute, amazing growth next year...
Are you ready for growth?
If you knew before-hand, like six months in advance, what is going to happen in the future, how would you act?
How would you prepare?
What kind of action can you take now, in order to become a massive success next year?
➢ Bitcoin is going to be trading at new All-Time Highs in 2025.
➢ Thousands of Altcoins, literally, will be hitting new All-Time Highs in 2025... Knowing this, how are you going to approach this market now?
How are you going to accumulate, load-up, wait patiently; buy and hold?
How are you doing to do it now?
Thinking of the long-term... Of course!
If you know we have this wonderful and amazing market;
If you know we have this wonderful opportunity, it doesn't come really often...
If you are reading this now... This is your chance!!!
Come on! You can do this.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at 2 trillion dollars now and it is likely to go beyond 5 trillion after mid-2025... Wow!!! This is an amazing opportunity, we know what is going to happen before it happens... We can take advantage of this. "Pre-2025 Bull-Market..." We can do this!
It doesn't matter what happens this year; just hold strong until late next year.
Do you understand?
Give a boost and leave a comment if you are ready to join the millionaires club in 2025 —We are ready for success!
Namaste.
MARKETS week ahead: August 18 – 24Last week in the news
The lower than expected US inflation figures were the main driver of financial markets during the previous week. The US equities gained the most, with S&P 500 ending the week at the level of 5.554, and only 2% lower from it's all time highest level in July this year. The price of gold gained on a USD weakens, reaching a fresh new all time highest level of $2.506, reached on Friday. The US Treasury yields dropped to the level of 3.8% during the week, on inflation and PPI figures. The only market that was left behind during the week was the crypto market. BTC was traded within a relatively short range, struggling to hold the $60K level.
The inflation in the US is evidently slowing down. The posted figures for July are showing that the inflation reached 2.9% on a yearly basis, which was below market estimate of 3.0%. Core inflation was standing at 3.2% y/y. At the same time the Producer Price Index was increased by 0.1% in July, and was also below forecasted 0.2%, while core PPI was standing at 0% for the month. On the opposite side, posted Retail Sales figures for July were significantly higher from the market estimate, reaching 1.0% for the month, above forecasted 0.3%. This was a clear signal to investors that the inflation is slowing down, increasing the potential for the Fed's rate cut in September. At the same time, there is no indication that the US economy is nearing recession, but quite opposite, it is holding relatively solid, despite the environment of increased interest rates. The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled for the end of the week ahead, where Fed Chair Powell will hold a speech. The markets will closely watch this event, in expectation of any new information which will confirm their expectation of a forthcoming rate cut.
The British fintech company Revoult passed through a secondary share sale during the previous week, where the company was valued at $45 billion. The Revoult recently gained a banking licence with restrictions from the U.K. authorities, while the investors valuation of $45B represents a significant shift from the $ 33B valuation the company posted in July 2021.
The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, noted in an interview with Chinese media that the financial risks in China's economy have decreased, and that he expects cooperation with the Ministry of Finance in order to reach defined economic growth for this year. The initial risks were related to the high amount of debt in China's housing market, impacting the local government.
JPMorgan published a research report, in which it is noted that the profitability of the crypto miners fell in August to an all time lowest levels, considering a 26% increase in a hashrate, which is at a record high. This is the main reason for a drop of 18% in the value of the total market cap of the fourteen U.S. listed miners.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was left behind investors' focus during the previous week. Current concern regarding the course of interest rates till the year end, turned the market interest back to equity markets, leaving the crypto market to trade in a mixed manner during the week. There were almost equal numbers of both buying and selling orders, leaving the crypto market to trade sort of the side. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by another 1% during the week, losing another $27B in its total cap. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, reaching levels around $ 95B on a daily basis, which is a modest drop from $107B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $412B, which represents a 25% surge from the beginning of this year.
This was one of the rare weeks when major coins did not play a crucial role in driving the market cap. Instead, this week investors were more focused on major altcoins. BTC performed in a mixed manner, losing more than 2% in value during the week, or around $25B. ETH is finishing the week relatively flat, with a modest drop on a weekly level of $ 1B in value or 0.3%. At the same time, Bitcoin Gold gained significantly, supported by ATH of gold, reached during the week, with an weekly gain of 15.5%, adding $ 62M to its market cap. Among gainers, DASH should be noted, as this coin managed to add 8.3% to its value during the week. Litecoin also performed well, with an increase in the market cap of 10.5% w/w. ZCash also closed the week higher by 9%. On the other hand, market bellowed Solana lost even 9.3%, while Polkadot was down by 8.9%. XRP dropped in value by around 5%, losing $1.6B in its market cap.
When it comes to coins in circulation, Tether managed to add 1.0% more coins to the market, increasing by this percentage its market capitalization, adding $1.17B to it. Polkadot added 0.2% of new coins, while Filecoin, traditionally, increased its circulating coins by 0.3%. During the week, Solana not only lost in value, but also decreased the number of coins on the market by 0.1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Some interesting developments occurred in the crypto futures market during the previous week. Namely, as BTC finished the week in red and ETH ended flat, still, these movements were not exactly reflected in the respective short term futures. BTC short term futures were last traded down by around 2.5%, while the long term ones were traded lower by 1.7%. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year dropped by 5% w/w, ending the week at the level of $59.770. December 2025 was closed at $68.290.
Opposite to the BTC futures, ETH futures closed the week in green. Short term futures were last traded around 0.8% higher from the week before, while the longer term ones, ended the week more than 1% higher. December 2025 ended the week at the level of $2.718, while December 2025 closed at $2.909.
Crypto Total Market Cap ~ 14 months of bull run remaining?Crypto - CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap
Another month has passed since I shared this chart. We are now past the half way point for this bull run. Over the next 3 months, this is typically were the market starts to reach escape velocity.
✅ Month 15 of 29 month bull run (past halfway now)
✅ Month 15 of prior cycles (green boxes) were
followed by major upward price movements.
✅ An ascending triangle or compression of the market cap can be seen via a series of higher lows held up by a diagonal support line, market cap is also contained by the overhead all time highs.
⚠️What's interesting is the TOTAL market cap has not made an all time high yet 👀
⏳The 10 month moving average is at $2.06T, we are presently under it at $2.04T however there are 16 days left in August before we have a candle close. Something to watch. It not definitive, but if we could hold above the 10 month it would be very encouraging. The 10 month moving average is still sloping up the way too which is telling.
⏳ Given the unavoidable recession concerns, I have included a Black Swan Line. I do not see this as the most likely outcome however its worth having a back the truck up line in the event of mass panic. This would be a great level for long term hodlers to enter, and could always use a level under the line as a stop for CRYPTOCAP:BTC price.
Summary
I remain bullish mainly due to where we are in the bull market cycle as per the chart timing above. We are fighting the 10 month moving average and it remains upward sloping. We have an ascending triangle of sorts forming and an underside diagonal support line we can watch as an increased risk level (if lost). The monthly candle presently looks like a hammer reversal candle. Patience is the name of the game here for long term hodlers.
Typically Aug/Sept are thee worst months for CRYPTOCAP:BTC price performance, so we should expect consolidation, sideways and a possible churn slightly lower before the market continues its ascent towards the end of Sept, start of Oct 2024. Looking ahead, the Christmas season often brings renewed excitement to the market. That all starts with the "Halloween effect" in October. All will be revealed with 60 days. Stay busy folks 🙌
PUKA
TOTAL - An Overview on the crypto marketcap#TOTAL #Analysis
Description
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+ After a clear bounce from the support, another drop is occurring, which is normal.
+ We also have a strong support line that is providing significant support.
+ As long as the market cap remains above the horizontal and trendline support, there is hope for an upcoming bullish market.
+ A breakdown from this support zone could lead to further declines in the market.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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VectorAlgo
MARKETS week ahead: August 12 – 18Last week in the news
Previous week markets used to digest US economic data, and realized that there is still no need for fear of recession. Markets were traded with a positive sentiment covering some losses which were brought two weeks ago and on Monday, after posted US jobs data which were weaker than expected. The US Dollar continued to weaken, supporting the price of gold to finish the week for one more time above the $2.4K currently strong support line. The S&P 500 managed to gain above 4% on a weekly level, however, it should be considered that previously, the index lost some 10% from its recent peak level. The US Treasury yields were traded higher, returning to the 4.0% level. The crypto market also gained during the week, with BTC reaching again the $60K resistance line.
Start of the week brought sort of a relief on financial markets after the US ISM Services PMI was posted. The indicator was standing at the level of 51.4 in July, higher from market estimate of 51 and Jun`s figure of 49.6. The ISM Services Business Activity was 54.5 and ISM Services Employment was standing at 51.1. The indicator shows that the US services sector is in relatively good shape, in which sense, there is still no recession developing in the US. In addition, weekly jobless figures were posted for the first week of August, where initial jobless claims reached 233K, only a bit down from 240K forecast. It did not take long for the markets to enter into the correction mode and switch sentiment from negative to positive. The panic from Friday`s jobless figures was over. Regardless of these developments, the market still anticipates with high probability that the Fed`s pivoting moment will occur in September.
JPMorgan has officially launched the LLM Suite project, a generative AI assistant program, which helps employees in writing emails and reports. The program was developed in cooperation with OpenAI, a maker of ChatGPT. For more than a year JPMorgan banned ChatGPT to be used by their employees, providing them now an alternative, which would be more secure for data protection of the Bank.
Elly Lilly was the company which occupied a lot of news space during the previous week, as its shares rose more than 11% for the week. The surge occurred after the company posted Q2 results and expectations that the full year revenues will be higher by $3 billion from initially estimated, due to a boost in sales of its two drugs for weight loss and diabetes.
The US Internal Revenue Service has released a new tax form for crypto brokers, which will be in effect from the year 2025. The form 1099-D will be distributed to clients of crypto brokerage firms, and it is expected to introduce more clarity and transparency when it comes to tax filings on crypto transactions.
Crypto market cap
It was indeed a stressful week on the crypto market, as well as on almost all financial markets. The fear over potential US recession and Fed`s forced cut of interest rates was so strong that almost all markets had a strong push to the downside. Still, the posted ISM data showed that the state of the US economy is not in a bad shape, which turned back investors optimism and a rebound of the value of financial assets. However, it should not be overseen that something did change. Analysts are pointing that the significant drop in the Yen carry trade is still not over and that currently some significant amount of positions is still open. A further increase of interest rates by the Bank of Japan might trigger similar developments in the future period. Still, despite a highly volatile week, total crypto market capitalization managed to stay relatively flat compared to the end of the week before. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, losing around $ 29B in value. At the same time daily trading volumes modestly decreased during the week to the level of $107B on a daily basis, as of the weekend, from $170B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $439B, which represents a 27% surge from the beginning of this year.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. There were altcoins with significant gains on a weekly level, however, there were the ones which finished the week with a loss. Regardless of significant fluctuations in price during the week, BTC gained 0.9% on a weekly level, adding $10.6B to its market cap. On the other side, ETH made a significant drop of 9.2% w/w, losing almost $ 32B in value. XRP had a very good week, where the coin managed to increase its value by $8.9% adding $2.7B to its market cap. ZCash was traded on a positive side and increased its value by 27% w/w. Solana continues to be currently one of markets favorite coins, which increased its cap by 10% w/w or by $6.6B. Interestingly, one of the highest weekly losers was Maker, who decreased its value by almost 15% on a weekly level. There is still no official information what was the cause of such a significant drop for this coin.
There has been increased activity with coins in circulation. Tether increased the number of coins on the market by 1.0% w/w, increasing by this percentage its total market cap. XRP, Solana, Polkadot, Polygon and Filecoin increased their number of coins by 0.2% each. Thai week Miota was active and increased its circulating coins by 0.6% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Considering extremely high volatility, the crypto futures market was trying to catch up with the spot market, however, finishing the week at the lower levels from the spot market. BTC short term futures ended the week around 3% lower from the week before. December 2024 was last traded at the price of $62.975. Longer term futures were traded by 3.2% lower for all maturities, where December 2025 ended the week at the level of $69.485.
ETH futures made a higher move to the downside. Short term futures ended the week by around 14% lower from the week before, same as the longer term ones. Futures maturing in December 2024 were last traded at price $2.686, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.877.
Biggest Day in the Crypto Market the Entire Bull Run!Absolute FACE MELTING day in the market today.
The biggest inflow of capital in the entire Bull Run!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL market cap pumped 13.75%
Bulls have reclaimed the .236 Fib
I expect a bit of a sell-off here, but if we can hold this level, we very well could have seen the bottom.
Total Market Cap (3M Chart) AnalysisCrypto Market Cap at Crossroads: Bullish or Bearish Next Move?
The Total Market Cap (TOTAL) on the 3-month chart provides a macro perspective of the entire cryptocurrency market. After experiencing a significant bullish run, the market is now facing a critical juncture.
Key Observations:
● Current Market Cap: Approximately $1.926 Trillion
● Major Resistance Level: Around $2.4 Trillion
● Major Support Level: Around $1.2 Trillion
Crypto Market Still Shows Correction Within UptrendCrypto market is in another bigger decline, impacted by stock market sell-off, but we still see it trading within a higher degree A-B-C correction for wave 4, where wave C of 4 can stop anywhere here in the 1.7T – 1.4T area. It's still a summer consolidation, so as long as Crypto total market cap chart is above trendline and 1.2T invalidation level, there's still a chance for a bullish continuation for wave 5, but we need to see sharp or impulsive stabilization back to 2T area to confirm support in place.
MARKETS week ahead: August 5 – 10Last week in the news
Previous week was marked with a lot of news, unfortunately with a negative sentiment for investors in financial markets. The FOMC meeting brought “nearing” a rate cut, which was generally positive, however, surprisingly weak jobs data made investors to re-think their positions, fearing a potential recession in the US. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets with a rate increase of 25 bps, pushing parity of the Yen 8% higher against US Dollar. The US equity markets continued with a correction, with S&P 500 ending the week at the level of 5.346. The US Dollar and the US Treasury yields reacted strongly on weak jobs data on Friday, bringing the USD lower and 10Y Treasury benchmark at the level of 3.78%. Aside from weakening of USD, the price of gold reacted to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, still ending the week at the level of $2.443, after a profit taking. The crypto market was the worst weekly performer, where BTC reached a support level at $60K.
The Federal Reserve held a regular meeting on Wednesday, and held the rates unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting. Still, the only significant change in Fed Chair Powell`s rhetoric is that the first rate cut is “nearing”. The markets are now strongly perceiving that the first rate cut will occur in September. At this moment, there are some 58% odds that the rate cut will be 50 bps, instead of previously anticipated 25 bps, considering weak July`s jobs data. There is also discussion among investors that July`s jobs data showed the potential that the US is slowly entering into the recession. However, there are also few analysts who are noting that there might be a seasonal effect in July`s weak jobs data.
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to the levels around 0.25%, from the previous range of 0.0%-0.1% and is halving its bond-buying purchase program. The BoJ Governor Ueda did not rule out another hike of rates during this year. At the same time, Yen strengthened against the US Dollar by around 8%. A move from the BoJ is significant for the US markets due to heavy carry trade which investors are traditionally using. Namely, investors are using interest rate differentials, and through leveraged funds in Yen with low interest rates to finance investments in the US markets. Increased interest rates and strengthening of Yen will impact investors to close some positions, which might bring additional negative impact to the US financial markets.
Another news that hit the US stock markets during the previous week, was that Warren Buffet`s Berkshire Hathaway cut holdings of AAPL by almost 50%. At the same time, their cash holdings reached $276 billion from $189 billion posted for the first quarter. These figures were obtained from the company's quarterly filings, but the company itself did not make any comments. The analysts are referring to Warren Buffet`s comment to shareholders made in may, where he noted that the current stocks are too expensive in order to make a solid profit for the company.
Crypto market cap
The previous week was a tight one for the crypto market. The week started with unconfirmed news that the US Government has transferred around $2 billion worth of BTC to the unknown address. Based on a name provided, it seems that this transfer is related to the Silk Road DoJ. A lot of investors were concerned that this might be related to a potential sale of BTC, and started closing positions, in a fear of a potential BTC price drop. The week continued with news that BoJ increased interest rates, in which sense, some decrease in a carry trade might be expected. Friday`s weak jobs data increased fears among investors over a potential for a recession in the US. All these factors had an impact for investors' re-positioning, in which sense, the crypto market suffered another losing week. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 11% on a weekly basis, whipping out around $263B from the crypto market. Daily trading volumes reached levels around $170B on a daily basis, which is significantly higher from $101B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year dropped to $ 468B, which represents a 29% surge from the beginning of this year.
Almost all coins lost value during the previous week. Certainly, BTC was the one to lose the most in nominal terms. BTC decreased its market capitalization by almost $171B, which represents a 12.5% drop on a weekly basis. ETH was following the general market trend, and decreased its cap by almost 12% or $46B. Previous week Solana was the one of the coins with a significant drop in the market cap of $19.2B or 22.6% on a weekly basis. Another coin which should be mentioned in this group is Binance Coin, which decreased its cap by $8.5B or 10%. In relative terms altcoins lost a significant portion of their value, which ranges from 10% - 20%. Among higher losers in relative terms were Filecoin, with a drop of 20.5%, DOGE was down by almost 20%, Theta lost 21.2% in value. One of the rare coins which managed to actually increase its market cap on a weekly level is Zcash, which managed to add almost 2% to its market cap.
There has been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Polkadot was the coin which strongly increased the number of its coins on the market by 2.7%. Filecoin traditionally increased its circulating coins by 0.3% this week, while Stellar and Tether had an increase of the number of coins by 0.2% w/w.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market closed on Friday, so developments on the spot market have not been fully captured in the closing prices for the week. Nevertheless, both BTC and ETH futures closed the week more than 8% lower from the week before.
BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $64.775, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $71.780. On a positive side is that the futures maturing in December 2025 are still holding above the $70K level, which is a positive sign that the market is perceiving current drop in prices as only a temporary. ETH December 2024 futures closed the week at $3.125, while those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $3.346.
Is TikTok FOMO the Canary in the Crypto Coal Mine? How Memes and Hype Signal a Risky Market
The meteoric rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has captured the imagination of investors and the public alike. But amidst the excitement, a crucial question lingers: how do we identify when the market might be overheating? Traditionally, analysts have relied on technical indicators and economic data. However, the rise of social media, particularly TikTok, presents a new wrinkle in gauging market sentiment, especially with the influx of worthless meme coins and potentially misleading influencer endorsements.
The Allure of Crypto on TikTok
TikTok's short-form video format is a breeding ground for viral trends, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Endlessly scrolling users are bombarded with enthusiastic pronouncements about the "next big coin" and testimonials of life-changing gains, often featuring meme coins with dog or cat logos. These videos exploit the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) mentality, pressuring viewers to jump on the bandwagon before prices skyrocket. However, many of these meme coins have little to no underlying technology or real-world application, making them inherently risky investments.
The Mania Indicator:
While social media can be a valuable tool for connecting with communities and sharing information, the sheer volume of uncritical crypto hype on platforms like TikTok, especially surrounding meme coins, can be a strong warning sign. When complex financial instruments are reduced to catchy slogans and presented as a get-rich-quick scheme with cute animal mascots, it suggests a market driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
Paid Promotions and Influencer FOMO:
Further complicating the issue are influencers who promote specific cryptocurrencies, often without disclosing that they're being paid to do so. These endorsements can mislead viewers into believing these meme coins or hyped projects are legitimate investments. This lack of transparency can create artificial demand and inflate prices in the short term, but can also lead to dramatic crashes when the hype bubble bursts.
A Canary in the Coal Mine?
Historically, periods of intense social media buzz surrounding specific stocks or asset classes have often coincided with market peaks. Social media trends are fleeting, and the frenzy surrounding meme coins on TikTok could be a sign that the crypto market is nearing a period of correction.
Beyond the Hype:
It's important to remember that social media trends are fleeting. While these platforms can provide a glimpse into popular sentiment, they shouldn't be the sole basis for investment decisions. Conducting thorough research, understanding the underlying technology of a project, and employing sound risk management strategies remain paramount for navigating the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
The Takeaway:
The proliferation of meme coin cheerleading and potentially misleading influencer endorsements on TikTok serves as a stark reminder of the importance of measured analysis in the face of market exuberance. While social media can be a tool, responsible investors should prioritize fundamental analysis, avoid meme coins with no real-world application, and be wary of paid influencer promotions. A long-term perspective is essential when navigating the exciting, yet volatile, world of cryptocurrencies.
BULL MARKET MOMENT OF TRUTH - $TOTAL Meeting It's MakerRSI is sitting at lowest it’s been this entire bull market.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL needs to close above $1.85T to keep our current bull market range.
If we close below this in the coming days, we are in for a world of hurt with another ~20% sell-off on the CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP.
Question everything at that point.
Crypto Total Market Cap: Approaching Key Support - Will It Hold?#ETH/USDT #Analysis
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+ The chart shows the total crypto market cap trading within a descending channel, suggesting a bearish trend in the broader market. The marketcap has recently dropped sharply, approaching the lower boundary of the channel, which aligns with a key horizontal support level around $2.09T.
+ The 21-Day EMA ($2.227T) and 55-Day EMA ($2.279T) are sloping downward, indicating bearish momentum. The marketcap is currently trading below these EMAs, reinforcing the overall bearish sentiment.
+ The critical support level at $2.09T is being tested. If this level holds, it could serve as a base for a potential bounce back towards the upper channel line and the EMAs. However, a break below this support could lead to further declines, potentially towards the psychological level of $2.00T or lower.
+ The RSI is currently in bearish territory, around 33, indicating that the market is oversold but could still move lower.
+ If the total market cap holds above the $2.09T support level and breaks back above the 21 EMA, we could see a short-term relief rally. Key resistance levels to watch are the 21 EMA ($2.227T) and the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Bullish Scenario:
If the total market cap holds above the $2.09T support level and breaks back above the 21 EMA, we could see a short-term relief rally. Key resistance levels to watch are the 21 EMA ($2.227T) and the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below the $2.09T support level could trigger further selling pressure, with the next key support levels around $2.00T and the lower boundary of the descending channel. This would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend.
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TOTAL CRYPTO TICKERThe auto fib retracement and auto fib extension show both indications cryptocurrency ripe to for taking in addition to a complete bottoming out of the price as a whole. Distracted by something, or too busy soaking up the second month of summer? Long orange line represents the time period when the drop happened and the price of cryptocurrency going beyond the 100 day without improving therefore falling. Looks like an opportunistic moment where the fibonacci levels appear as though cryptocurrency is flailing around underneath the resevoir of time and money.
Crypto Market Forms A Bullish SetupCrypto market made a nice bullish setup formation with a five-wave rally in July, followed by an a-b-c flat correction. It has just came nicely into projected 2.2T – 2.1T support area within wave »c« of an a-b-c flat correction in wave (2), from where we should be aware of a bullish continuation within wave (3). However, keep in mind that we have important NFP report (US jobs data) today, so it's recommended to wait on confirmations, which is sharp or impulsive bounce back above 2.45T level.
Total Crypto Market Cap vs. Interest Rates Interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (FED) have a significant impact on the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. By analyzing the relationship between these two factors, we can observe distinct phases in the crypto market's behavior in response to changes in interest rates.
FED Increasing Interest Rates : When the FED raises interest rates, it often leads to money flowing out of the crypto market. Higher interest rates make traditional investments more attractive, reducing the appeal of cryptocurrencies. This results in a downtrend across all cryptocurrencies.
FED Fixing Interest Rates at the Top : Once the FED halts interest rate increases and fixes them at a peak, the crypto market typically starts to recover. Bitcoin usually sees strong upward movements, while other cryptocurrencies experience more modest gains. This phase marks the beginning of a reversal to an uptrend.
FED Lowering Interest Rates : When the FED begins to lower interest rates, the crypto market undergoes a short distribution phase. Investors reassess their positions, leading to some volatility. However, this phase is quickly followed by an upward trend as lower interest rates increase the attractiveness of riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
FED Fixing Interest Rates at the Bottom : When the FED fixes interest rates at a low point, there is a significant inflow of money into the crypto market. This period is characterized by aggressive price increases across various cryptocurrencies, with substantial pumps in market values.
Investors anticipate FED decisions:
It's important to note that changes in crypto prices often precede the FED's official decisions . Investors tend to anticipate the FED's next moves by analyzing economic indicators and positioning themselves accordingly. This means the crypto market often reacts to expectations of interest rate changes before they are officially announced.