In the second half of '24, the bullrun is coming!www.tradingview.com
The chart above brings together the total market cap over the past two years and global liquidity. For reference, global liquidity was based on M2
*M2 means M1 + short term deposit(contract deposit, small MMA, etc.), all cashable assets that can be immediately cashed in, and is a representative macroeconomic indicator associated with inflation
Eventually, when money is printed on the market, it will flow into coins, which are risky assets, and then the total coin market cap will naturally increase. In fact, when liquidity surged in the second quarter of the year, the coin market cap, which had been disturbed by the FTX crisis, also surged afterwards. As liquidity increased in the second quarter of the year, the coin market was able to increase once again
Although there is a boring sideways trend right now, the coin market cap is expected to increase again as in the '22.4Q and the '23.Q' when interest rate cuts are expected
TOTAL trade ideas
Crypto total forming bullish trend - 2.2T heavy support The Crypto total market cap daily time frame, we can see the support level 2.2 trillion was tested multiple times in end of Q1 and Q2 2024, time periods: 1 March, middle east geopolitical conflict 15 April, first 2 weeks of May 2024. The week time frame of 24 June was chopping around the 2.2 trillion support. Slim wicks to the downside with quick recoveries to 2.2 trillion. BItcoin and altcoins are oversold on 24 June, more so altcoins have been shaken to extreme oversold conditions. Will the altcoin market bleed more? I doubt it with the Eth and SOL ETF filings.
The Crypto total market cap downward trend is broken and the uptrend forming start of Q3 2024, the daily candles prints bold green. I can assume the trend for Q3 and Q4 2024 to be bullish formations from here.
Good luck and have fortune, we still in bull market crypto halving cycle until 2025!
Cryptocap Crypto Total Market Cap - Idea IHey guys
2023 printed a bullish setup - retest of old high.
-> it also closed above the middle line of the bearish engulfing candle -> second bullish indicator.
-> grey zone and old highs of 2.1T - 3T will be monitored.
-> still somewhat bearish below 3.1
Quarterly: Neutral - Inside bar and retesting middle line of Q1
-> still in bullish territory because it closed above major support…
-> inside Bar will be monitored (range)
Monthly chart: Bearish close -> 3 Months weakness
-> Stochastic turned down - 2.4T and 2T will be the showdown area - grey Box which will act as support or resistance.
-> still in an uptrend indicated by the rising Trendline.
3D: Testing a bullish Trendline - Bullish Setup on this Frame
-> still in a declining trendline / Consolidation
Thanks for reading
I don't like BTC, but it's probably going to $200k+Folks that know me know that I don't trust crypto. I don't understand or fully believe its "use" case bull hypothesis.
But I do believe we are in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation.
In my mind BTC is simply another risk asset and as such an "inflation hedge" or "fiat decline hedge".
In that regard I may have underestimated the ability of BTC to trade higher in the years ahead. Potentially A LOT higher. I'm talking $200k+.
I don't like it but you trade what you see without bias whenever possible. Don't @ me.
MARKETS week ahead: July 1 – July 7Last week in the news
Inflation data were in focus of markets during the previous week. The US PCE data published on Friday, impacted some repositioning among asset classes. The US equities reacted to the inflation data by ending Friday`s trading session in red. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.460. The US Dollar modestly weakened during the week, allowing gold to recover some of the weekly losses, ending the week at level of $2.340. The strongest reaction to posted data had 10Y Treasury yields, which were increased to the level of 4.4%. The crypto market continues to be under pressure, where BTC was testing the lower grounds during the week, still, ending it above $60K support level.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index for May was published on Friday. The index was standing at the level of 2.6% y/y, and at the same level as core PCE. Figures for May represent its lowest level within the last three years. Despite the evident decrease in inflation pressures, the markets are still not sure regarding the Fed`s pivoting point in time. The majority of market participants are still perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year.
As CNBC is reporting, a new wave of M&A activities started within the crypto mining industry, noting as a catalyst artificial intelligence. Namely, as crypto miners have the necessary equipment for “compute-intensive AI operations' ', initially installed for the mining of crypto coins, they became a target of larger companies within the field of AI. In this sense, a Nvidia backend start-up, CoreWeave announced a deal with Core Scientific company. It is noted that the deal is expected to generate additional $1.2 billion in revenues within the next 12 years.
In line with the development of AI technology and the demand for data centers, the European Union has finalized their study on a potential for launching data centers in Earth's orbit. As the demand for electricity is significantly increasing due to the developments in the digital sectors, the ASCEND is trying to solve the issue through using solar energy within the Earth's orbit.
After BTC and ETH, Solana is the next one to be eligible for an exchange traded fund. As per news reports, VanEck asset management company in the US filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. VanEck`s researchers believe that the Solana is acting like a commodity and not a security, and that it acts like a competitor to Ethereum blockchain. Solana rose 8% on this news.
China is slowly gearing up to be the leader of the global market within the field of electric vehicles. As per study conducted by the consulting firm AlixPartners, the Chinese automakers will achieve a 33% global market share of EV by 2030. However, the firm is noting far slower expansion in Japan and North America, considering the 100% tariff on imported Chinese EV`s that these countries are imposing on imports from China.
Crypto market cap
For the second week in a row the crypto market is slowing down. Investors' interest continues to be focused on inflation data, in which sense, recent posted PCE and consumer confidence data had also some impact on the crypto market. Anticipation of the next Fed move when it comes to interest rates continues to be a major concern of market participants, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased by additional 4%, wiping out some $86B from the market value. Daily trading volumes continue to move around $94B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $567B, which represents a 35% surge from the beginning of this year.
Previous week`s drop in total crypto market capitalization was led by its major coins, BTC and ETH, while other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. BTC lost 5.2% of its value on a weekly basis, losing more than $ 66B in market cap. ETH took the second place with outflow of $20.8B from its market cap, which is a decrease of 4.9% within a single week. Binance Coin was also traded to a downside, losing $2.5B in market cap, or 2.9%. One of the highest losers within the week in relative terms was Uniswap, with a drop in value of 10.1%. However, there were coins which managed to increase their value on a weekly basis. Solana should be specially mentioned, with a weekly gain of 5.4%, adding $3.3B to its market cap. This increase came after news hit the market that asset manager VanEck filed with the SEC for a registration of selling shares through a Solana ETF. Tron and Polkadot had a good week, with an increase in market cap of more than 5%.
When it comes to coins in circulation, ETH was the greatest weekly surprise. Namely, around 1.7% of its coins were pulled off from the market. There is currently no public information what`s the cause of such a move. This week IOTA had one of the highest increases of coins on the market, with a surge of 0.6% on a weekly basis. Filecoin increased its circulating coins by 0.3%.
Crypto futures market
Two weeks ago the spot crypto market turned to a short correction, still, there has not been some significant response from the crypto futures market. However, during the previous week, there has been some significant correction, when it comes to the crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower from the week before.
BTC short term futures ended the week around 5% lower from the week before. December 2024 was traded by 7.7% lower from the end of the previous week, ending it at $62.315. Futures maturing in December 2025 were traded lower by 6.7%, with a closing price of $69.385.
Similar situation was also with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded around 7% lower from the week before, while December 2024 ended the week by a round 4% drop in value, with the last traded price at $3.505. December 2025 had a slower drop of 3.45% on a weekly basis, closing the week at $3.774.
$TOTAL is flerting with important Fibonacci Circle resistenceAfter a fake breakout from important Fibonacci Circle resistence and a fake breakout from the downward blue continuous line, CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL is trying to find now support over the daily 200 EMA (green line) that coincides exactaly over an important VWAP reset line
If prices continue to fall, a very important support will be over the market "Support Box"
Once the price breakout from the red Fib Circle, market will continue its move upward
Chart Idea - TOTALWaiting for this inverse head n shoulder to playout. In order for BTC to move further up and liquidate more shorts, TOTAL needs to break the neck line of this inverse head n shoulder pattern. We will see BTC going down again if it gets rejected from here. Will keep on updating here.
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP - 1064 Day CycleThe crypto total marketcap has previously experienced two uptrends that lasted 1064 days.
We are in the third cycle and there are 518 days left until the completion of the 1064-day trend.
The cycle will be completed in November 2025.
We'll see if history repeats itself.
Total Crypto MarketCap at "Oversold Levels" for a while!www.tradingview.com
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates the relative strength of the market's upward and downward movements, especially when it is below 30, indicating 'oversold levels'.
The RSI for total crypto market cap recently entered oversold territory for the first time in 10 months, and historical patterns suggest that this may be a "buy-the-dip opportunity.
Elliot Wave 3-4 : FINAL Correction before NEW ATHI've been watching this bearish M-Pattern for some time, and I still believe this is a multi-month playout towards a new ATH:
This lines up with my initial correction target using Elliot Wave Theory:
We see a very clear Double Top play out in the Total Chart, also indicating that it's time for a correction:
HOWEVER - I expect the bulls to be ready and sweep in lower prices when the right support zone is reach (whale zone), which seems likely to be in the 40k zone. It won't be a straight line down - again, a multi-month playout is likely.
_______________________________
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT
WHAT IF WE ARE IN A BIG CRYPTO DOWNTREND? If you want to be top 10% do the opposite of 90% .
I'm constantly asking myself what majority of investors think and do at the moment.
Are they buying? Or maybe selling?
Last couple of months I would say that majority of investors were placing buy positions.
Why?
-Some of them had mindset of "halving is just around the corner, I will invest x amount of money and in one year I will make x amont of money"
-Institutions are in the game, mainstream media hyped this up. "They probably know what are they doing, I don't want to miss the train again"
-Geopolitical tensions
-Elections
-Influencers and social media caused a lot of hype about the bull run.
Would you dare to go against all of this?
Small amount of people probably did.
Personally I'm waiting for a pullback for sure, because we are in 1,5 year uptrend without any pullbacks. We saw all time high before halving which is something new for us.
As I posted on my X account couple of weeks ago, I'm expecting extreme fear below 20 or even lower before any continuation to the upside.
Everytime 2 months before halving correction happened and fear and greed index fell below 20. This time this scenario did not occured. We had fear and greed index on 90 1 month before halving when price was at 68.430$ .
Who bought at 68.430$ (place of extreme greed = 90) is -10% in drawdown. In my opinion this does not hurt that much, we need deeper pullback in my opinion.
What could happen to push price lower?
I don't know, but I do know that in near future crash can occur. Everything is at the ATH right before elctions, while war going on between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, China and Taiwan , Houthis attacking ships at the entry to the most important transportation sea way (suez canal) , ...
Anything can happen but most important questions is "what and when?"
This is only my point of view and some of my thoughts at the current levels.
This post is not a financial advice!
Do your own research before investing/trading.
MARKETS week ahead: June 24 – 30Last week in the news
Markets used the week after the FOMC meeting for some repositioning and profit-takings in expectation of new data which will provide a clue when the Fed will start its pivoting cycle. The S&P 500 finished the week lower, after reaching a new all time highest level, where Nvidia for one more time was in the center of market interest. The US Dollar gained in strengths, pushing the price of gold toward the level of $2.321. The US 10Y Treasury yields remained relatively calm modestly above the 4.20% level, while the crypto market was eyeing lower grounds, and BTC testing the $ 65K support line during the whole week.
China was in the center of the news during the previous week, as the both US and EU are imposing further restrictions for products made in China. The negotiations were held between EU and China officials related to tariffs that the EU will impose on China's electric vehicles, in an attempt to protect its own auto industry. On the other hand, the US issued a set of rules which would put a halt to specific investments in the products related to artificial intelligence and other technological developments in China, under the reasoning that they might impose a threat to the US national security.
Apple has announced that their three new features named Apple Intelligence, which is based on AI, iPhone Mirroring and enhancements to SharePlay screen shall not be launched in the European Union upon its official release. The company notes that “the interoperability requirements of the DMA could force us to compromise the integrity of our products in ways that risk user privacy and data security”. Although such a move from a company might disappoint consumers in the EU, and in this sense, potentially decrease the sale of Apple devices in EU countries, still, the market for Apple shares remained flat on the news.
The US banking regulators publicly disclosed the weaknesses in the resolution plans in four from eight US largest banks, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Deficiencies in plans were related to derivative portfolios and the way the banks are planning to handle any potentially negative situation. The regulators noted that plans of these companies have “material limitations”.
Standard Chartered bank announced that it will establish a trading desk where their clients will be able to trade bitcoin and ether coins. The desk will be based in London as a part of the bank`s FX trading unit. Standard Chartered will be the first bank to allow its clients to trade BTC and ETH directly from their trading platform.
Crypto market cap
Crypto market continued to slow down also during the previous week. Fed`s pivoting point is still in the center of market interests, in which sense, some repositioning is occurring, considering latest available data on the state of the US economy and potential next Fed`s moves. Currently decreased interest for BTC is evident not only on the spot market, but also in the futures and among ETF`s. As per news reports, BTC ETF`s faced some $900 millions in outflows during the previous week. As the market is searching for new equilibrium levels, the crypto market lost additional 3% in value on a weekly level, losing around $ 69B from its market cap. Daily trading volumes were again decreased to the level of $93B on a daily basis, from $120B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at $653B, which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year.
The majority of coins were on a losing track during the previous week, except only a few ones which ended the week in a positive territory. In a nominal sense, BTC lost the most of all coins, around $38B on a weekly basis, or 2.9%. ETH managed to end the week relatively flat compared to the week before. Among higher weekly losers were Binance Coin, with a drop in value of $2.8B or 3.1%, there was also Solana, which dropped its market cap by $4.9B or 7.3% w/w. In a relative terms, the highest weekly losers were coins like OMG Network, with a drop in value of 16.3%, Zcash was down by 11.4% same as NEO, Filecoin and Uniswap both lost around 15% on a weekly basis, while Algorand was down by 12.7%. The majority of other altcoins dropped up to 10% w/w. Among few gainers were EOS, who managed to increase its cap by 14.8% w/w, while Maker ended the week higher by 7%.
There has been some increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense ETH`s circulating coins increased by 1.8% on a weekly level, Tether increased its number of coins by 0.3%, same as the total value of its market cap. This week LINK had an increase of its circulating coins by 3.6%, while Filecoin, traditionally increased the number of its coins in circulation by 0.6% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Decreased activity on the crypto futures market continues. In line with the spot market BTC futures were traded lower compared to the week before, while ETH futures ended the week higher. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 2%. Futures maturing in December 2024, closed the week at price $67.560 or 2.5% lower from the week before, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $74.355 relatively flat on a weekly level.
ETH short term futures closed the week around 3% higher. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at $3.651 or 3.3% higher w/w, while December 2025 was closed 3.7% higher at level of $3.909.
Total market capitalization decline1) Total market capitalization decline has confirmed. This is one more argument that the price action we see since December 2022 - is a bear structure;
I interpret the structure as an extended 4 wave of minor degree.
2) Bitcoin has gone under the 2009 trend line. This was never done before.
3) Due to massive 4-year SMAs support near 37-32k, a pattern might be more complex than straight ABC structure.
The first relatively safe entry point on BTC chart is 38k. My base scenario is 18500.
3) 5 ways down, i described in previous posting - is never the end of a structure, according to Elliot waves principle.
Good luck in your trading and have a massive profit!
Total market capitalization decline1) Total market capitalization declined has confirmed. This is one more argument that the price action since December 2022 is a bear structure.
2) Right now, Bitcoin price has gone under the 2009 trend line. The single relatively safe entry point to i see on BTC for speculations is 38k. Due to massive SMA support there the pattern might be more complex than straight ABC structure.
3) 5 ways down is never the end of a structure, according to Elliot waves principle.
There are no certainties in the market, only probabilities, so the bearish scenario is invalidated if BTC price fixes above 74 thousand, within 2 days.
Find more morę arguments in previous postings.
Good luck in your trading and have a massive profit!
TOTAL # 001 ( Last PUSH UPWARD before Market COLLAPSE !!! ) Hello dear traders.
Good days.
On monthly Gann Square, Total market didn’t grow more than 0.25 of Monthly Gann Box level price and it can try to test at least 0.5 Monthly Gann Box Fib level which will be 2.55 T $ .
It can grow beyond to test 0.618 @ 2.91 T $ Or even try to reach itself to 0.75 Gann Box Fib Level which will be about 3.4 T$ .
Weekly and Monthly Gann Square Can match each other to reach to the mentioned Targets and Finally proceed to Hug Bearish Correction at the end of Monthly Or Weekly Gann Square which is depended .
Chart is plotted with help of Gann Square and Gann Box.
Good luck and safe trades.
Thanks for your support and comments.
TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSISHello dear traders, we are new so we ask you to support our ideas with your LIKE and COMMENT, also be free to ask any question in the comments, and we will try to answer all, thank you, guys.
ALTS Market Cap
Current Situation:
The ALTS market cap is currently testing the boundaries of a descending triangle pattern.
The 100-day moving average is acting as resistance just above the triangle.
200-Day MA Bullish Momentum: The 200-day moving average suggests underlying bullish momentum.
Anticipate a bounce from the triangle's support level.
A successful breakout above the 100-day MA confirms a bullish trend.
If the retest of the triangle's boundaries fails, expect further consolidation within the pattern.
This indicates continued market indecision.
The ALTS market cap is at a crucial juncture. A bounce from the triangle's support and a breakout above the 100-day MA will confirm a bullish trend. Failure to break out suggests further consolidation and market indecision.
Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section.
Thank you
Think Long-TermThis is the perfect time to start focusing on the long-term.
The market is yet to complete the current cycle.
Not thinking in terms of two (2) days, two (2) weeks or two (2) months would be wise.
Time horizon for buyers and holders should be between 8/10 months, to 14-16 months.
👉 We are talking between March-May 2025 (8/10 months) and October-December 2025 (14-16 months). These are key and very important dates.
If the market is set to grow strongly in 2025, this is sure to take time.
A long-term perspective will remove much doubt, worry and anxiety.
Just think long-term.
Namaste.
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level.
hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
Disclaimer
Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Diverging Paths of Long-Term HoldersThe behavior of long-term holders is a key indicator for understanding where we are in the market cycle. Here’s why : As prices rise, long-term holders start selling the assets they’ve accumulated over time. Historical data shows that this profit-taking usually begins in the early stages of a bull market and continues past the cycle peak. Monitoring this activity can help estimate market peaks with greater accuracy.
Given Bitcoin's significant influence over the rest of the market, it is often the most straightforward asset to use for measuring these cycles, as other cryptocurrencies tend to follow Bitcoin’s lead.
However, examining this data for Ethereum reveals an intriguing divergence. While long-term Bitcoin holders began selling in January, long-term Ethereum holders have continued to accumulate. This contrasts sharply with their behavior in the last cycle, where it closely mirrored that of Bitcoin holders.
The reason for this shift? Numerous yield opportunities have emerged for Ethereum, making it more profitable to hold. Currently, 27.5% of the total CRYPTOCAP:ETH supply is staked, with 16.3% of this staked ETH being restaked through protocols like Eigenlayer. This highlights the strong appetite for native yield among ETH holders.
Additionally, long-term holders may be waiting for the Ethereum ETF approval and new all-time highs before deciding to sell.