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MARKETS week ahead: October 9 – 15Last week in the news The market star of the previous week were US Treasury bonds, which continued with drop in prices, reaching 16 year lows, in an aim to adjust to the new Fed narrative. Equities were trying to adjust to this new sentiment on bonds, but still finished the week in green territory. The crypto market continues to be side traded, while gold was adjusting to new US Dollar highs. This could be a short summary of the previous week on financial markets. The US equity markets reacted positively on posted jobs figures on Friday, although, not all analysts are of the same opinion regarding the reason for this increase. The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.8% in September, although the markets were expecting to see 3.7%. At the same time, non-farm payrolls were significantly above market estimates of 170K, reaching a figure of 336K new jobs in September. Regardless of continuously strong jobs data, wage increases slowed down a bit in September, providing some relaxation to market participants that the effect of the job market on inflation will not be significant. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.2% in September, standing at 4.2% on a yearly basis. On the other side are several analysts who are noting that Friday`s surge in equity markets is a result of its heavy oversold side during September, as well as, a modest easing in US Treasury yields. Fed`s Governor Michelle Bowman, noted her standing that interest rates should be increased further on next FOMC meeting. She repeated this on Connecticut Bankers Association during the previous week. She also commented on Friday`s job figures as “solid”. As per CME Group`s tracker, market participants are currently anticipating 43% probability that the Fed will increase rates before the end of this year. FundStart, a company specialized in analysis, posted a report which revealed that the venture capital funding for projects within the crypto industry dropped by 75% on a yearly basis in Q3 this year. This also represents a six consecutive quarterly drop within this area. Tokenized US Treasury bonds will be offered on the Coinbase exchange. This was announced by Backed Finance, a Switzerland based company, which specializes in asset tokenization. Since this product is issued under Switzerland`s tokenized securities law, it could be offered only to companies which follow the know-your-customer and anti-money laundering rules. The tokenization businesses are gaining in popularity, and could reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion in 2030, as noted by the Boston Consulting Group report. Crypto market cap The US Treasury bonds were the ones that collected market attention during the previous week. Their drop in prices intensified after the latest FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell introduced a new Fed`s narrative called “higher for longer”. The stronger adjustment to this new narrative was conducted during the previous week, where the 10Y US Treasury benchmark rate reached the highest level at 4.88%. While equities were also moving within a correction path, still, on Friday they managed to make a bit of an upside move, during the easing of Treasury yields uptrend. During this period, the crypto market remained short at a side of investors interest, ending the week relatively flat, with a modest increase of total crypto market capitalization of 1.3% on a weekly basis, adding total $ 14B to the market cap. Daily trading volumes are still relatively low and were moving around $ 41B during the previous week, a modest drop from $56B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 42%, where it has added total $316B to the market cap. Bitcoin was the one that drove a market cap up $ 14B during the previous week. BTC added a total of $18.4B to its cap, or around 3.5%. Other coins were traded in a mixed manner. Ether finished the week in red, losing 2.5% on a weekly basis, or around $5B. Coins with solid performance during the week were Solana, which increased its market cap by 8.6%, Polygon also managed to increase its value by 6.6%, while Monero was up by 4.4% on a weekly basis. Bitcoin Gold also gained during the week, adding a little bit less than 4% to its market cap. Coins which finished the week in red were LINK, with a drop in value of 7.7%, DASH was down by 6.2%, Theta lost 4.6%, while Ethereum Classic decreased its value by 5.9%. There have also been some movements within circulating coins. Algorand gained the most coins in circulation during the previous week, increasing it by 1%, and was followed by Filecoin, with an increase of 0.7%, and Solana by 0.3%. At the same time, Polkadot decreased its circulating coins by 0.2%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was following developments on the spot market during the previous week. BTC short term futures were last traded higher around 4%, while longer term ones were traded relatively flat. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $28.495 or 4.42% higher from previous week`s close. There has not been much change with prices of futures maturing in December next week, as they were closed at $30.185 or 0.12% higher on a weekly basis. It is positive for BTC that it managed to hold a price above $30K for the year ahead. Opposite to BTC, ETH` short term futures were traded between 1.4% and 3.3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $1.634 or 3.37% lower on a weekly basis. Those futures maturing in December next year were down by 3.07% and were last traded at price $1.736. Positive for ETH is that those futures are still managing to hold prices above $1.7K for the four weeks.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
Forward Test of the Universal Trend Algorithm on TOTALThis chart shows the Universal Trend Algorithm and the live signals we have received since forward testing. This chart shows the forward-tested results on the index of the crypto market. The Universal Trend Algorithm is a swing trading algorithm designed to capture medium-term trends for investment portfolios and swing traders, signals can last from weeks to months. Hence the backtesting parameters are 100% of the equity as position size, as this system is more of an investment strategy, not a scalping strategy. Backtesting started in 2020
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
MARKETS week ahead: October 2 – 8Last week in the news “Higher for longer” continued to shape investors sentiment, ending September in losses. During the last trading week of the month, equity markets both in the EU and the US continued with correction, while US Treasury yields continued to be elevated, reaching higher levels from the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 finished the month some 4.7% lower. The crypto market gained some 2.4% on a weekly basis, but still with fragile strength to sustain higher grounds. Although the general sentiment on financial markets is pretty negative during the last period, the investors are continuing to closely monitor inflation developments, anticipating the next Fed`s move. During the previous week, the Fed`s favorite inflation indicator was published, posting the core personal consumption expenditures price index to 0.1% in August, lower from market expectation of 0.2%. At the same time, core PCE on a yearly basis was down to 3.9% in August from 4.3% posted for July. This was a small positive sign for market participants that inflation is indeed slowing down and that measures imposed by the Fed in the previous period are giving the results. Based on the latest report, markets are currently giving only 15% probability for a potential rate increase at November`s FOMC meeting. In line with the US inflation gauges, inflation in the Euro Area also seems to slow down. As per published data, the inflation in the EU fell to the level of 4.3% on a yearly basis in September, although the markets were expecting to see the figure of 4.5%. Although core inflation reached 4.5% y/y, it was still a significant drop from 5.3% posted for August. August inflation figures are at its lowest levels since October 2021. Based on the latest ECB projections it could be expected for inflation to fall down to 3.2% next year, and finally reach targeted 2% in 2025. The ECB is also following Fed`s rhetoric of “higher for longer” interest rates. JPMorgan Chase decided to block their crypto-related operations in the U.K. over concerns on the “rise in frauds” related to the crypto assets. Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong criticized such action of JPMorgan and other banks which took the same course in the UK when it comes to their crypto related businesses, strongly disagreeing with a decision to de-platform the whole crypto industry. Instead, he is noting that regulators should be the ones to make a decision on what is allowed and what is not on the market, and not banks. Ripple announced that the company is discontinuing its initial intention to purchase a chartered trust company Fortress Trust, based in Nevada. As announced at the company, Ripple will continue to be an investor in this company. Although there has not been officially noted the reason for such a decision, the market speculates that it might be due to the recent theft occurred at Fortress Trust, totalling around $15 million, due to “unnamed third-party vendor, that had fallen victim to a phishing attack”, as Coindesk reported. Crypto market cap Markets are continuing to digest the “higher for longer” rhetoric from FED during its September`s monetary meeting. Investors continue to be focused on inflation figures in a hope that the Fed will skip further rate hikes for this year. As per current CME questionnaire, market has lowered expectations for another rate hike at November's FOMC meeting, but still, surprises by Fed officials are possible, especially after Fed Chair Powell`s announcement that there will be yet another rate hike till the end of this year. After that, the US interest rates will continue to be elevated through the course of the next year. But even with these elevated interest rates, the Fed is not expecting to reach its 2% inflation target until year 2025. It seems that monetary authorities are ready to accept generally changed global economic circumstances where increased inflation becomes a part of the economic reality. Although US equities and Treasuries lost in value during the previous week, the crypto market gained from investors' slowly emerging appetite for riskier assets in anticipation of higher returns for this year. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 2.3% during the week, adding total $24B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to $56B on a daily basis, from FWB:33B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year reached a level of 40%, where it has added a total $302B to the market cap. It was a generally positive week for crypto coins, where the majority of them gained in value. BTC and ETH were major coins with highest participation in total crypto market cap increase during the previous week. BTC gained $8.8B on a weekly basis or 1.70%. The winner of the week was ETH, with a gain of $10.8B or 5.65% increase within a single week. BNB could also be mentioned as a significant gainer in nominal terms, as this coin managed to add $0.85B to its total value, which represents a 2.6% increase for this coin. There have been several coins with solid gains in relative terms, like Maker with a surge in value of 18.4%, LINK was up by 15.8%, Bitcoin Cash was up by 13.3%, OMG Network gained 12.7% w/w. There have been only a few losers during the week, with relatively smaller drop in price like NEO, with a drop in value of almost 2%, Stellar was down by 1% while Polkadot lost 1.75% on a weekly basis. There has been modest movements in circulating coins for several currencies, where Polkadot lost 3.8% of its coins in circulation while Filecoin added 0.4% new coins. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was holding a positive sentiment during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded at higher grounds from the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded some 1.5% higher from the week before, and in line with developments on the spot market. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $27.290 or 0.7% higher, while December 2024 managed to return to the levels above $30K as of the end of the previous week. ETH short term futures were traded around 4.6% higher on a weekly basis, but still lower from the spot market. December this year ended the week at a price $1.691 or 4.9% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, longer term futures prices were increased by more than 4%, with December 2024 ending the week at price $1.791. Regardless of the developments on the spot market, investors are still holding precaution when ETH future prices are in question.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL - Bull run starts October?To get more clues on what BTC is doing, I analyzed the TOTAL (Total Crypto Market Cap). I use Elliott, trendlines, and fibonacci. I keep getting the same results on many analysis, of the bull run starting in October. I label my waves 1 A W and 2 B and Y. Why is that? There is a real possibility, that crypto does a huge pump for months, then another bear market hits. So I keep these corrective labels to remind me. This idea lines up with the fact that the US Treasury yield curves inverted 11 months ago. If you are not aware, in past history, recessions hit anywhere from immediate to 17 months after a yield curve inversion.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by gz1968
9
MARKETS week ahead: Sept 25 - Oct 1Last week in the news Soft landing, hard landing or no-landing is the pending question among market participants after the FOMC meeting held on Wednesday. Markets are never happy with uncertainty, which brought some increased volatility on US markets. After Fed Chair Powell's speech, Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007, equity markets sharply fell, while Bitcoin followed the drop on the stronger US dollar. The FOMC meeting was held on Wednesday where the Fed left rates unchanged, still, leaving some space for another rate hike till the end of this year. Fed Chair Powell delivered an after-meeting speech where he pointed toward the higher-for-longer interest rate levels. One of the important notes from this meeting is expectations from the Fed to cut rates during the next year. Gross domestic product was sharply revised to the level of 2.1% for this year, but is expected to fall during the next year. Markets immediately priced the new Fed`s standing of higher-for-longer rates, where Treasury yields were significantly elevated and the US stock markets fell sharply during the Chair Powell's speech. Another topic that spotted investors interest during the previous week was Japanese yen weakening against the US dollar. As per analysis from JPMorgan experts, a further yen weakening might influence the Government of Japan to increase interest rates, which could further spark the repatriation of Japan's capital kept in the foreign markets. As per analysts, such an event might further increase volatilities across the US markets. The Bank of Japan is still holding short term interest rates at a negative territory, at level of -0.1%, while 10Y Government bond continues to yield around zero. JPMorgan analysts commented on Ethereum in their latest research report published on Thursday. As per their opinion, Ethereum`s Shanghai upgrade, which was implemented in April, did not provide expected results. The activity on this network modestly dropped during the last few months, while they presented the result of a 12% decrease in daily transactions since the Shanghai upgrade was implemented. At the same time, several other analysts are noting that there is a general drop in activity on the crypto market, hence, it does not mean that the drop in activity on Ethereum network is necessarily a consequence of the Shanghai upgrade. Binance Holdings and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao have filed a request to the US court to officially dismiss a lawsuit made by the US Security and Exchange Commission. The basis for such a claim is that the SEC overstepped its authority through this lawsuit, considering that there is still no clear guidelines on how crypto companies should comply with the law in the US while the SEC should not impose any further guidelines retroactively, as they are trying to do in the case of Binance Exchange. Crypto market cap The pivotal event of the previous week was certainly the FOMC meeting. Fed officials changed rhetoric a bit, as well as projections for the next two years. Although they left the interest rate unchanged at this meeting, still, based on their projections, there is still room for rates to be increased until the end of this year. The Fed`s pivotal point should be expected somewhere during the next year, when they will start slowly with interest rate decrease. Expectations on the growth of the US economy for this year are revised up to the level of 2.1%, with a decrease in the year ahead. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to reach its highest level around 4.1% during the next year. The economists are quite divided on such projections, noting that the latest Fed`s revised projections would certainly need another revision in the coming period. Anyway, markets did not perceive well what they have heard from Fed Chair Powell, and the downturn on the markets began even during this speech. Bitcoin also followed mainstream`s markets path to the downside, amid stronger US dollar, but overall, the crypto market remained relatively flat. Total crypto market capitalization remained at almost the same level, losing some $2B in value, which represents around 0.2% of its total market cap. Daily trading volumes were again decreased, to the daily levels around $ 33B, from $ 43B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at level of 37%, where it has added total $278B to the market cap. Another mixed week on the crypto market. Total market capitalization remained flat week on week, however, there has been some reallocation of funds between coins. Bitcoin had a relatively volatile week, but managed to end it relatively flat, adding 0.11% to its market cap. At the same time, ETH lost $5.5B in value, decreasing its cap by 2.8% w/w. Altcoins with significant increase in value during the week were LINK, with an increase of 13.29% in value followed by Algorand, with an increase of 5.4%. XRP, Theta, ZCash and Solana ended the previous week more than 2% higher from the week before. On the losing side were Miota, with a drop in value of 4.65%, Bitcoin Cash was down by 2.9%, Stellar lost 3.3%, while ADA dropped by 2%. As for coins in circulation, the situation was a bit calmer from the week before, where Polkadot increased its circulating coins by 4.8% w/w, Stellar`s coins were up by 0.6%, while Solana increased coins in circulation by 0.3% same as Filecoin. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was generally following developments on the spot market during the previous week. Bitcoin short term futures ended the week in a modest green territory, where December 2023 futures were traded 0.67% higher compared to the week before, and ended the week at level $27.095. At the same time, longer term futures were traded some 0.40% lower on a weekly basis. December 2024 ended the week at level $29.640 or 0.45% lower on a weekly basis. ETH futures did not have a good week, as all maturities dropped between 2% and 3% compared to the week before. Short term ETH futures were traded some 2% lower, with December 2023 ending the week at level of $1.612 or even 3.13% lower from the end of the previous week. December 2024. was closed at price $1.712, some 2.93% lower on a weekly basis. ETH`s future prices continue to be negatively perceived by the markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Total (Crypto Market Cap) 1W until end of 2023Price is expected to move sideways until mid October between 1T and 1.115T Starting mid October scenario is splitting into two: Optimistic and Realistic. End of October will show which scenario takes place. Optimistic scenario includes prolonged sideways movement until start of November and consequent steady growth until the end of 2023. Realistic scenario implies breakdown below 1T bottoming no lower than 922B and ranging there until February with possible false breakout on the edge of 2023 and 2024. Steady growth is expected no earlier than mid February 2024. In my humble opinion, I tend to err to Realistic scenario and it is more aligned with my view of Others.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by discarding
The Path of HOLDERS" 🌟🚀Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! I'm CryptoMojo, the name you can trust when it comes to trading views. As the captain of one of the most vibrant and rapidly growing crypto communities, I invite you to join me for the latest updates and expert long and short calls across a wide range of exchanges. I've got your trading needs covered with setups for the short-, mid-, and long-term. Let's dive into the charts together! I've dedicated my time and effort to crafting this chart, but remember, what you see here is crypto insight, not financial advice. 🚀💰 #CryptoMojo #CryptoTrading HODLers, Prepare to Conquer! 🌟 While the Bitcoin rollercoaster may seem to have reached its lowest point, the thrilling journey through the crypto wilderness is far from over. Right now, we're venturing deep into the captivating Accumulation phase, a realm that demands not only Patience but also Courage as our guiding stars. 🌲💫 Now, let's turn our attention to the tantalizing world of #Altcoins, where on the majestic canvas of higher timeframe charts, they're poised for nothing short of a spectacular breakthrough. As we gaze ahead into Q4, all signs point to a bullish adventure for these altcoin gems. 🚀📈 In this bustling and often clamorous crypto realm, here's your compass: Accumulate your treasures with the shrewdness of a seasoned collector and hold them with the unyielding resolve of a true champion. Tune out the distractions, and cling unswervingly to your long-term vision. 🚀💎 In the grand tapestry of the crypto cosmos, rest assured, your steadfast Patience will soon be showered with the rewards you've envisioned. Keep the faith, for the best is yet to come!" 🌌💰 #CryptoHODL #LongTermGains This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
6
Crypto - Key Breakout LevelSorry about the mic fuzz at the beginning. Leave your questions & thoughts in the comments. To sum up: Bulls to regain control until the start-mid November at 30k levels Bears to very quickly take over at those levels This aligns with analysts' timing predictions of a heavy recession start. Considering DXY likely not being stationary, 30k is a rough estimation This aligns with analysts' timing predictions of a heavy recession start in end of 2023 or early 2024.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Sanzhar_m
Should we trust on math? 11T$ TargetWhen we checked the last cycles our fib target was always 3.6 Fib level, now we see that we will see something like 11T$, it looks huge, impossible. So in this scenario, there will be mass adaptation, and full media cover with blockchain and web3, especially Meta, De-Fi and Rwa will be strong pushers. You know people, who never buy red, they lie themselves like they do on social media, they don't wanna buy red stuff only green because it makes you better, buying is an addiction to greed, you must buy green and you are super greedy at that time! So there will be millions of people who lost their purchasing power, and missed a lot of opportunities in past with low-interest rates, new use hype is expected to be a billion in this bull-run! Right now 1.4 billion people are using iPhone, such a massive adoption when you remember the first days of the iPhone, we were still using Nokia or what? The banking system is stupid right now, why do we have % commission for one single transaction even If you buy milk on the market, why do we give them for sending money or holding our assets there so what if CBDC came to our real life? One way or another world doesn't realize something recession and crashes won't happen when everybody expects, it happens when you thought bad days are over, probably 2025-2026 will have these hidden signals when everyone was superb happy. So I am waiting for a big step for printing money, adaption and huge crash like dot.com bubble and that cycle will bring us next bull-run but people will lose a lot of money, we could lose money too we know that but greedy people never things that, only one thing we should be careful that we shouldn't be super greedy in 2025. Have a nice day guys, I hope to comment this post next year with superb expectation for the future, please comment below.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by kargaa
1
Total index📌📊Total ✅On September 1, in the analysis of the Total index, we mentioned that if the market reaches the level of 1.116, we expect a very good downtrend, which happened from the level 1.09 and penetrated the last support level of the index, that is, 991. ❗️Which returned with strength, In general, when a supply or demand area is broken which this breakout is fake, like what happened now in the total chart, the market reaches the highest level and the origin of the previous movement, which is the level of 1.116. ✅On the other hand, the area ahead, i.e. the level of 1.06, may cause the index to reverse. ❗️In general, the trend of price movement in the direction of a fake breakout has happened. ✅Therefore, the total index in the future will be either from the same level ahead or from a higher level, i.e. 1.116 or downward. #total
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Robot_100