My total market cap price predictionJust some guessing here based on some Fibonacci lines. But if my predictions come out, then we'll have a 4 Trillion total crypto market cap around may 2025.
This could also be the top of the next bull market and a huge opprtunity to lock in profits.
For the short term I expect a pullback to the last major support. But after that...
TOTAL trade ideas
$CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL | Unchained !Hi fam,
Hope you having a good time in crypto space.
As i promised and shared screen shot of CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL charts in the channel now I'm going to leave a chart here for easier access.
first we detected a range in our chart then followed trend action. after breaking out with high volume and making a successful S/R test it become more obvious to us that green candles are on the way.
(i will share some screen shots of the progress.)
----------------
In this chart i pointed to critical levels that may affect uptrend and make a pause in it. As a conservative trader, at these levels i will take profit and reduce my open positions to secure profits and get ready for fresh waves.
** 1.65T $ - Previously support level that lost in May 2022 - This level hasn't been tested as a resistance since that time but must be watched closely for any reversal candles in D1 or W1 time frame.
** 1.8T $ ~ 1.85T $ is a known resistance level and this level is my main target before market correction. i will absolutely minimize my open trades.
** There will be shakeouts in all charts. try not to miss the main picture.
---------------
As always, These are my ideas and can be wrong. Please DYOR.
Stay Safe,
Stay Rich,
Crypto market and my personal concernsAs of the current moment, I do not have any active trades in the cryptocurrency market.
I have closed all of my long positions, though I have not yet transitioned to short positionsโat least not as of now.
The purpose of this post is to address some specific concerns:
First and foremost, considering common sense factors:
- The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is undeniably bullish.
- Technically, the majority of charts exhibit a bullish trend.
- Fundamentally, various factors such as ETF, halving on BTC, and the US Election contribute to a positive outlook.
- The prevailing sentiment across the internet strongly indicates the possibility of a new bull run.
However, I find it disconcerting when everything appears too clear-cut.
Secondly, from a technical standpoint:
1. Contrary to the overall bullish sentiment, the past month has not been favorable, with weekly candles showing long upper tails.
2. The 1.7-1.8 level holds historical significance as an old liquidity and support level, now acting as resistance.
3. Observing the pattern since October 2022 reveals the formation of an ascending broadening wedge, typically indicative of a reversal pattern.
In light of these observations, it is essential to exercise caution and not FOMO, at least from my perspective.
MARKETS week ahead: January 14 - 20Last week in the news
At the start of this year Bitcoin reached another important milestone in its further acceptance into the mainstream. During the previous week the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot BTC Exchange Traded Fund. Through this milestone, BTC managed to secure its future on the mainstream markets. How it will secure the destiny of other altcoins is to be seen. During the first trading week in this year, markets were traded with a positive sentiment. The US Treasury yields continue with downtrend in expectation of rate cuts during this year, while gold continues to hold above $2K, following USD recent weakness as well as Middle East tensions.
A long awaited news regarding approval of the first spot BTC ETF finally came to fruition. During the previous week the US SEC approved filings from several large Wall Street names, among which, the largest one is certainly the BlackRock asset manager. This represents a huge milestone for BTC and its wider acceptance among market participants. With this move, large institutional investors will have an approach to the crypto market, through traditional market channels. In this manner, the existence of the BTC is secured for the future period. How this will affect other altcoins is to be seen in the future. The SEC is still of opinion that the majority of these are simple securities in a digital form, which needs to be aligned with already existing law on securities in the US. This is also a relevant question when it comes to existing filings for the first ETH ETF pending SEC`s approval. Anyway, regardless of the BTC`s win at the beginning of this year, there are emerging challenges in the tech and financial industries which will compete with the BTC during the coming years. In this sense, a regulation within the crypto industry comes at the first place and is followed with the rise of AI in finance and other industries, as well as growth and innovations of alternative finance within the field of FinTech, DeFi and other non-traditional financial channels. It all implies that the BTC will have to put additional effort during the year, in order to continue to attract investorโs funds.
As investors are relieved by information that BTC ETF is approved, BlackRock`s CEO, Larry Fink, is now eyeing the approval of the first ETH ETF. In his interview to CNBC, Fink supported further tokenization, noting โI really do believe this is where we are going to be goingโ. It was also interesting to hear his standing that Bitcoin is an asset class that can hedge investorโs funds against geopolitical risks. BlackRock`s product iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has its debut on Thursday, after the SEC approved its product, with roughly a $1billion in trading volume.
Previous week was also the one where US banks were posting their quarterly results. The environment of significantly increased interest rates left its mark on bank earnings, as well as few takeovers which occurred during the previous year, after several bank collapses. JPMorgan was among those whose earnings slipped by 15% q/q. The bank's earnings were also hit by $743 million in investment losses due to the rescue of banks in the banking crisis during the year 2023 in the US.
Crypto market cap
A long awaited first spot BTC ETF has been approved by the SEC, but the market turned the price of crypto coins to the downside, instead to the upside. Many analysts were predicting that the price of BTC might skyrocket after the approval of the first ETF, noting some figures of even $100K, but it did not happen. Obvious question is if there is something wrong with their analysis or something else happened on the market? Well, in economic theory which relates to traditional markets, there is a topic called market efficiency. The core of this theory is that the market will always price all known information at this moment so that the current price of some asset will reflect its real price. As BTC is getting more and more involved in the traditional markets, the rules of traditional markets will more and more apply to this asset. With wider acceptance of the BTC, we can expect that its price will see more stability in the future period. This is exactly what had happened to BTC. Namely, as of the last quarter of 2023 with the first market rumor that the first spot BTC ETF could be approved, the majority of investors, but also market speculators, the price of BTC headed toward the $45K. This was a huge move to the upside, when the market reached its top. After the SEC`s approval, the balloon which was heating the market was released, so the majority of speculators could pick their profits and move their funds into some other promising asset which would provide them excess profits. At the same time, one should not forget that there is a developed derivative market for crypto assets, in which some leveraged positions were closed, supporting in this manner the spiral to the downside. At one moment, some investors will see a good purchasing opportunity, when the downtrend will be halted and BTC will start its new cycle, but this time, on much healthier grounds from the previous one. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, moving around $1.64 trillion. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased to the level of $174B on a daily basis, which was not recently seen on the crypto market. During the first two days since the approval of BTC, around $4.6B in volume was traded on the market, which significantly contributed to the overall trading volumes.
With the approval of the first BTC ETF, it was Ether who actually gained the most. BTC lost some of its value, around $ 20B, during the previous week, due to reasons mentioned above. At the same time, the price of ETH was up by almost 12% on a weekly basis, adding around $ 33B to its market cap. This is again sort of speculative move, considering market expectations that the first ETH ETF will soon be approved after the BTC`s fund was approved. Certainly, these are only expectations, while the certainty of it is known only to the SEC. When it comes to other altcoins, there was sort of rebalancing between different coins on the market. On one side, there were those with significant gain during the week, while on the other side, there were those with significant loss during the week. Coins like Maker, Filecoin, Polygon, Tron, Uniswap, even Binance Coin were among those who gained during the week. On the opposite side were coins like XRP, LINK, DOGE, ADA, Monero, Solana, Algorand which were among losing altcoins.
As for coins in circulation, there has been significant activity during the previous week. It seems that the approval of the BTC ETF has moved many coins which were staked somewhere to get back into the market again. There has been an increased volume of circulating coins for the majority of altcoins. Tether managed to increase its market cap and value by increasing its circulating coins by more than 4% on a weekly basis, which has not been recently seen with this coin.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected developments on the spot market, but only through the short term futures. While BTC short term futures were last traded down by more than 2%, at the same time, ETH futures were up by more than 7%. Developments on BTC longer term futures were positive, and were traded by more than 5% higher from the end of the previous week. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded at price $49.785 or 5.16% higher, while major development was with futures maturing in March 2025 where the price for the first time reached the $50K level, ending the week at $50.710. This expresses positive investors sentiment over the future price of the BTC.
Similar situation was also with ETH longer term futures. They ended the week around 13% higher from the week before, where December 2024 was last traded at price $2.743, while March 2025 ended the week at $2.782 or 15.5% higher from the week before. Regardless of the positive market movements, it is still evident that investors are a bit skeptical when ETH`s future value is in question.
TOTAL macro. These thoughts have been expressed by many traders in one way
or another, and I tend to share them.
However, I want to make my own picture. It helps my thinking.
Elliott Waves are not my base method, but this model base situation
can be really can be seen on a weekly global chart.
It's important to apply it here so that you don't get lost in the
pictures of the smaller timeframes.
Let's go back in time.
So, 5 impulse waves happened
May 2017 through November 2021.
4.5 years of growth (1652 days). โจ
Correction that started at the end took a year and two months
to form Leg A (Nov. 21 - Jan. 23).
We are now a full year inside leg B, which is what is called a bear rally.
And this is where we need to pay attention to the trend line.
As far as I've been able to be accurate, the wick will touch this
line at about ~1.835. And then what happens?
The market should take off breaking the trend without completing
the global pattern? It's been up for 1652 days.
And correction so far is only 784 days if you look at these macro waves.
There is some disproportionality in that.
I believe correction should be aiming for at least 2/3 of the time that
the rise has amounted to.
Or if the market decides there is no time, then the execution
of the pattern should be literally rapids.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything you don't like.
If you don't like it, pass by.
I always draw my charts for myself first and foremost, and only when I have no pity,
I publish them just to make my thoughts as useful as possible.
Conclusion. The market has about 0.11 TOTAL margin for an upward move
Let's take note of the high volume bar this week.
Isn't this the final sell-off.
You see, it's very hard to see this one coming.
I'd really like to say that a new cycle has begun.
But the correction pattern is the foundation for the next impulse wave cycle.
How can you want to eat the apple without planting the apple tree?
The altcoin explosion is a liquidity spillover from bitcoin.
But bitcoin should have a margin of growth.
And be a nudge trend.
Right now, the whole market is going to hit a trend line at the bottom.
How should this correlate with the fact that the underlying global
correction pattern comparable to the 2017-2021 growth period is not complete?
I'd prefer detailed explanations.
๐ Major Crypto Market-Wide Correction | Run For Your Life!Good Sunday my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, how are you feeling today?
Can you feel it in the air?
Can you sense it?
Time is running out... All hell is about to break loose.
The Cryptocurrency market is preparing for the classic and major pre-halving event correction and while we are not yet there, it is getting close.
On this chart we can see TOTAL moving daily below EMA10 after moving out of rising wedge.
We can see the biggest increase in daily sell volume in more than a year and EMA50 being tested on a wick January 3, a preview of what is to come.
One of the whales moved first and caused this major draw-down but the big crash is yet to materialize...
The good news.
Corrections are a normal part of market action. Just as prices move up, they also move down as the market moves in waves. Cryptocurrency, aka Bitcoin, has been growing since November 2022 straight up and now it needs a break.
We normally see a correction before the halving and that's most likely what we are witnessing will start unfolding in just a few days, weeks max, this same month.
It won't be a long drawn out correction, instead it will be fast, steep and strong.
๐ After the low is in, we will get a slow recovery lasting for months... It will grow and grow and grow in 2024 and beyond.
This is just a friendly warning.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
The blockchain market cap is clearly in a strong uptrend.The total token market capitalization -the single most relevant KPI in the blockchain industry- is clearly in a stage 2 (uptrend).
Tens of trillions of dollars should join blockchain protocols if we aim to make DeFi and blockchian the baseline of our economy, so there is still a hug path ahead, but fiat spot ETFs could bring more liquidity into blockchain assets.
Nearly all of our trading models are long in blockchain assets with trend-following and break-out strategies,
MARKETS week ahead: January 8 - 13Last week in the news
Markets are slowly heating up after a Holiday break and summary of last year's results. For the majority the year 2023 was a positive one, although with a glimpse of turbulence. Gold managed to finally break the $2K psychological line, ending the year above $2.050 level. The S&P 500 also managed to reach new highs at the end of the year, in expectation of interest rate drops somewhere in Y2024. On the same grounds, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark ended the year around 3.8%. For another year, the crypto market managed to beat the traditional ones, with significant yearly gain of more than 100%. The story related to the first spot BTC ETF is still holding the value of the whole market, especially the price of Bitcoin.
Previous year on markets, although the turbulent one, still managed to end on a positive note and significant yearly gains. The policy makers were certainly the ones in the center of market interest. After strong rate increases of more than 500 bps, the US Fed reached the point of a potential for a reversal. Inflation of targeted 2% is in the center of Fed's monetary policy, but the inflation has been resistant for some time. This imposed a discussion among market participants whether there will be a hard landing, soft landing or no landing at all in the US economy? However, the US economy showed a clear resilience for the strong interest rate hikes, surprising even the FOMC members. During Q4 2023 market slowly started to ignore Fed`s narrative, in expectation of a soon pivoting point. In Q4 the Fed gave up from further rate increases, which was the moment of celebration in markets. They were relieved to finally start positioning for a rate cut in the coming year. This was also a starting point for the Y2024.
Still, regardless of the US economy's resilience, not all industries were resilient to strong rate increases. During Y2023 we witnessed several bank collapses like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Heartland Tri-State Bank. Relatively bad asset and liability management, connections to the crypto industry and bank run-offs were some of the main reasons for these financial institutions to discontinue their businesses. Luckily, there has not been a high scale of contamination, in which sense, the rest of the financial system went through these crises intact.
The crypto industry was also in the center of market interest due to several reasons. First, there were several pledges and proceedings made by US authorities, especially the SEC. The most well known scandal over the FTX exchanger ended in November last year, when its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven charges of money laundering and fraud. Another news that spotted the market interest was a finalization of court proceedings against the founder of Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, who was found guilty of violation of several rules related to anti money laundering. Binance has settled charges by agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to the US regulators. Within the next five years, the Binance exchanges would most probably cease to exist. Although this was huge news, still, the market reacted positively to it, increasing the value of the crypto market. This actually came as a positive news for investors as they perceived that there will finally be some order within the crypto industry, so that the market would be able to further develop into a mainstream.
Another big news within the both crypto and main financial industries was that some of the biggest players on the Wall Street have filed with the SEC to start operations with a spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds. These names include BlackRock, VanEck, Valkyrie Investments, Fidelity and Wisdom Tree Investments, to name a few. It should be added that few asset managers like BlackRock and Ark Investment applied for first spot ETH ETF. Filings are still on the table, waiting for a final call from the SEC. This continues to be one of the main topics on the crypto market for Y2024. In case that ETFs are approved, analysts are betting on a further significant increase of the value of the crypto market.
Crypto market cap
The first half of the year 2023 was quite a challenging one for the crypto market capitalization. The market cap fell even below the $1 trillion mark, and many analysts were predicting its further move to the downside. However, in Q4 2023, something happened which the market is calling the โBlackRock effectโ, when the largest asset manager in the world announced its filing for the first spot BTC ETF in the US. This was a huge breakthrough for the crypto market, when it bounces back, ending the year above $1.6 trillion. This is still below its all time highs, however, currently the market looks at a positive direction. On this road there are still some obstacles mostly related to the regulatory environment. It should not be forgotten that regulators still perceive this market in the gray zone when it comes to full compliance with regulation. While the market participants are calling for a clear regulation within a field of the crypto industry, the SEC and its Chair Gensler, continue to stick with the narrative that regulation already exists and that the vast majority of both coins and crypto products should fully comply with the US Law on securities. In other words, anyone who wants to offer any kind of crypto product, especially staking, should first file with the SEC for approval to offer security-like products. Challenges for the crypto industry within the regulatory framework will continue to be a high priority of the regulators all around the world. As per US regulators, they still perceive both altcoins and stablecoins as highly risky assets, with high potential of frauds and those not fitting into anti money laundering laws. On the opposite side is the whole crypto industry, which is still holding the view that they just need a completely new set of regulatory rules.
All challenges from Y2023 will stay in place for Y2024. Both promise and uncertainty will be in place for the crypto market during this year. Certainly increased adoption and continued institutional involvement could fuel further growth of this market. Still, the regulatory clarity and technological advancements will play an important role in shaping the future of the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization ended the year at a level of $1.638 trillion, which represents its starting point for Y2024. This level also represents a yearly gain of 117% where the crypto market added $882B.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market closely watched developments on the crypto spot market during the year 2023. Although the first half of the year was a bit shy when it comes to prices of long term futures, still, during the second half of the year there has been a record number of large open interest holders for both BTC and ETH futures. This was a promising sign that institutional investors are still not ready to give up on the crypto assets, especially BTC and ETH. As the market continued to express interest, the CME launched micro BTC and ETH futures, and made them available for smaller investors for investing or hedging purposes. However, it should be noted that such a move was additional support to increased trading volume and liquidity on the futures market. Long term BTC futures ended the year at levels above $ 48K, while ETH futures sustained a $2.5K level.
The End of Crypto for a Long TimeI'm being dramatic lol, but I just started going down the rabbit hole of what if the cycles don't just repeat like everyone says. I have been in crypto since 2013 and don't really think it's over, but I'm just playing devils advocate. I do think we hit a major resistnace and have at least a local top on our hands. If the cycle was ever to stop we have a major confluence of 3 resistances, even breaking of the 2013 uptrend line is not a good sight. Do I really think the cycle is over? No, but I did take enough profit in case hah, It's just really been bugging me how many people say just buy and hold and you're fine, I have never seen that many people confortable with crypto in previous cycles which is freaky to me, but this is where my contrarian side can get me in trouble. I'm just going to continue to play the charts, but if crypto were to completely hault for a long time, this would be the confluence to do it.
Total Marketcap Trading at a Range High.The total market cap has tapped 1.7 Trillion 3 times recently. This 3rd tap is as BTC is trying to hold $47,000. If the market fails to push through this 1.7 Trillion level I see it as Bearish, indicating a potential correction in price. Anyway id love to hear some thoughts on this, feel free to leave a comment.
๐๐ Cryptocurrency Market Overview (TOTAL)๐๐ฑ๐ Recent Trends:
In the past month, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) has been consolidating between $1.52 trillion and $1.70 trillion.
๐ค Anticipation and Caution:
Market reflects caution and anticipation ahead of potential ETF news.
Despite being oversold, the market is expected to stay within this range until the ETF decision.
๐ Potential Outcomes:
ETF Approval: Total market cap could surge beyond $1.70 trillion.
ETF Rejection: Downward move likely, with support levels around $1.40 trillion to $1.45 trillion.
Stay tuned for the ETF decision impact! ๐ฐ๐น
#CryptoMarketUpdate #ETFDecision #MarketAnalysis ๐๐
TOTAL IS BULLISH (Important)๐ท Before anything else, you should know that the TOTLA symbol represents the total value of the market, including Bitcoin and other altcoins.
The total is forming a large diametric on the daily time frame. It seems now that we are in wave E of this diametric and we can go up to the red zone, but a pullback is needed to the green zone.
$TOTAL - Bitcoin Halving Sparks $10 Trillion Crypto TsunamiThe cryptocurrency market is poised to grow from $1.5 trillion to $10-12 trillion in the next two years.
Key factors
Bitcoin halving in 2024,
Increasing institutional adoption,
Rise of decentralized finance (DeFi),
Integration of blockchain technology across industries,
Global economic uncertainty driving demand for alternative assets,
Ongoing technological advancements making cryptocurrencies more accessible.
These factors collectively contribute to the positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
! Not an advice - DYOR !