TOTAL trade ideas
$TOTAL: Update - Long term trend activeToday marks the end of the 1st month since the monthly trend in the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 chart triggered a long term trend reversal signal (for altcoins), and 1 out of say 25 months that Time@Mode charts predict will comprise the totality of the bull cycle duration.
To put that in context, we just saw roughly 4% of the trend duration elapse, during November.
That might help us to remain patient, and to realize that 4% of the trend is not that meaningful in the big picture...imagine how meaningful a day or 1/30th of that is, or even worse: an hour, a minute. Don't let short term noise sway you or affect your cortisol levels, it ain't healthy.
Stay patient, follow logical setups and signals and stay invested while valid. If you need help navigating this, I'm here to help.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
time to book profits in Alts CoinsAs an investor in Altcoins, I find the total market cap concerning. Therefore, I've decided to book some profits and adopt a wait-and-see approach. I'll closely monitor the market's reaction to the Monthly Breaker level mentioned on the chart, as a bullish indication. If the market closes above the Breaker candle, I'll consider investing in small-cap coins with robust fundamentals and plan to hold them until 2025.
Currently, I'm taking a neutral stance, but I remain biased towards identifying attractive short opportunities on Bitcoin or other major-cap coins. Let's observe how the market unfolds and moves in the coming days.
MARKETS week ahead: November 27 – December 3Last week in the news
Due to Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the markets were relatively calm but in a positive mood during the previous week. Bets on Fed`s pausing were supporting the price of Gold and, at the same time, weakening of the US Dollar. Regardless of the negative news for Binance, the crypto market was traded mostly in green where Bitcoin managed for one more time to test the $38K resistance line.
One of the most striking news during the previous week was that Changpeng Zhao stepped down from his position as a CEO of the Binance exchange. The decision was made after he officially pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program in his company. At the same time, agreement has been made with the US Department of Justice for Binance to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comments shortly on the case noting that this is the largest settlement in the history of her department. As part of the settlement, Binance will completely exit from the US. Also, during the period of next five years the US Treasury Department will have complete and full access to both Binance`s records and systems. CZ is still waiting for the final sentence, one of which might be 18 months in prison, as news is reporting. Binance`s token BNB strongly reacted to negative news, with a strong sell side, dropping the price of BNB by 20%, however, the crypto market did not make any significant move on the news. As analysts are commenting, this case, along with recent court decision regarding a failed FTX exchanger, is actually positive for the crypto market and might even lead to the approval of the first crypto ETF. As JPMorgan analysts are noting, the court decision will decrease a systemic risk originating from a potential collapse of the Binance exchanger and shift the whole crypto industry toward the better regulated one.
FOMC November meeting minutes were released during the previous week, revealing that for the moment, Fed officials do not have any appetite for rate cuts anytime soon. Their concerns are still related to a possibility for inflation to move to higher grounds in the coming period, hence, they are of the opinion that rates should be kept at higher levels, until they are confident that inflation is under control. Market expectations are that the Fed is done with hiking rates, while potential for its cut is set for May next year.
World`s most popular retail discount day, better known as the Black Friday, came with a dose of skepticism among retailers this year. The majority of large retailers in the US came with a bit pessimistic expected sales figures for the fourth quarter of this year. Few of them cited challenges like uncertain consumer spending behavior considering persistent inflation or simply dry-up in the consumer spending. Economists and analysts are closely watching forecasts of the largest retailers in the US, considering that it might provide a clue of an actual state of the US economy, and guidance on expectations on the final economic output for this year.
Crypto market cap
The news regarding Binance`s settlement with US officials, which will cost Binance $4.3B in penalties, was perceived positively by the crypto market. Although this does not seem quite logical at first sight, still, a broader perspective needs to be taken into account in order to understand why such action actually has a positive impact on the crypto industry. Since last year there have been a lot of negative developments related to some big names within the crypto field, including a huge scandal with the FTX exchange. Cases like this represent an actual threat to further development and wider acceptance of the crypto by the mainstream, as investors were strongly losing confidence, and in some cases, even money due to inappropriate behavior of unregulated crypto market participants. During previous years, Binance became quite a large exchanger, which collapse might impose a systemic risk, with high impact on other market participants and investors with business connections with this exchanger. A court decision means that such a scenario will not happen, but also implies that some level of order and compliance with the US laws will be in force with the crypto industry increasing safety of this business for investors. As per some analysts, this will also imply higher probability that the SEC will approve the first BTC ETF. Having all that in mind, total crypto market capitalization increased by 3.2%, during the previous week, adding $ 43B to its total cap. Daily trading volumes modestly dropped to $ 81B on a daily basis from $92B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 86%, where it has added total $647B to the market cap.
Total weekly gain in cap of $ 43B was mainly driven by two major coins, Bitcoin and Ether. Bitcoin added 3% during the week, increasing its market cap by almost $22B. Ether gained higher in relative terms, of 5.8%, adding almost $ 14B to its cap. Tether was another coins with a gain above $ 1B, which represents weekly increase of 1.2% for this coin. Among coins with relatively good weekly performance in a relative terms were Uniswap, with an increase in value of 21.4%, Maker was up by 6.7%, LINK surged by more than 8%, while Theta increased its market cap by 12%. There were only few coins which finished the week in a negative territory, like Doge which was down by 2.3%, Polygon lost 5.6%, EOS decreased its cap by 2.5%. Of course, due to negative news Binance Coin finished the week down by 4.3%, losing total $1.6B in value.
Several coins increased the total number of their circulating coins, where Polkadot added 4.6% of new coins on the market, Filecoin 0.4% and Polygon 0.2%. Several other coins added around 0.1% more coins on a weekly basis.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market also reacted positively on news regarding Binance exchanger. Short term BTC futures ended the week by more than 3% higher from the week before, with December this year closing week at price $38.290. Longer term BTC futures were up by around 5%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $40.940, while those maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $41.690. This is the sign that investors are perceiving positively future price developments of BTC expecting its increase to the levels above $ 40K.
Similar developments were also with ETH futures, where short term futures closed higher by more than 7%, while longer ones were up by more than 6% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $2.128, while those maturing a year later closed the week at the level of $2.213. This is the first time after many months that all maturities of ETH are finishing the week above the $2K psychological level.
Total market cap target for this movei see 1.8T-2,2T is very probable target for this move . has a lot of confluence as you can see in the chart probably dec-feb2024 imo .after that we can seek for a major correction that we will update later.
this is not a financial advice
i will be sharing ideas from now on : www.tradingview.com
please do follow .
thank you
Final target for total crypto market cap i think that the pitchfork has a great confluence , in addition to hosoda N wave target (orange line) in addition to the grey box which contains 3 fib levels
i think that the total crypto market cap will touch the orange line with a wick similar to 2020 pandemic scenario and finally will stabilize and accumulate in the grey box preparing for the next bull run .
this is not a FA
thank you
POSSIBLE SCENARION FOR THE CRYPTO MARKETi think that this scenario is very likely , because in the fundamental side , i do not see any sign of a bull market , a formation of an expanding flag seems likely for me , we took the highs and then , we make a lower low toward the indicate zone that seems a good bottom for me .
this is not a financial advice
thank you
TOTAL market cap from ichimoku point of viewichimoku is well know Japanese system , from its point of view , there is no resistance for the total market cap until the red line ( monthly clould + kijun plat which is a very strong level of resistance when it comes to ichimoku ).
the first level of the 2017 top has been holding for 6 months now , in my point of view it will broke because we are far away from 85+ % typical correction in the total market cap , and now in a probable recessionary environment and probably the end of the 10 year circular bull market , i think it will get there easily , nothing is guaranteed ,just an opinion based on multiple data .
for bitcoin we have the same resistance in around 10K that i think personally that could have a wick leading us toward 8-9k and then rapidly reclaim the 10K region .
this is not a Fa folks
thank you
clear outlook on crypto TOTAL marketcapi think that this chart is very important , total market cap exclude the stable coins because we can consider them as cash ! ,
we divide it by the money supply to give as a better look .
i think that , if this current level do not hold , (50% retracement ) , the next zone would be the next obviously ,
the red zone has the 61.8fib level , hosoda target and 2 major resistance .
this is not a financial advice
thank you
TOTAL MARKET CAP next leg and potential bottom based on the previous distance between local bottoms , hosoda targets , fib levels and strong supports and resistance
i see that the next leg down of the total market cap , would lead as toward (595-522b range ) and the final leg (potential bottom ) to (385-340B) .
this is not a financial advice
thank you
TOTAL M TFFor dear Bear friends. Crypto will return to Bear market only if it will close below that Blue box.
Any correction until that Blue Box is OK for Bull continuation.
Above is the level 1.492T which is important to break to go higher.
It is Monthly chart, so if Total will keep its consolidation above blue box, then in few months we may see a good Bull Run
SUPREME TEST FOR CRYPTO MARKET!I am posting this #Chart for those who are too #BULLISH in the #Crypto market now!
1. Below I attach a Weekly chart on TOTAL.
I'm not going to explain what #TOTAL means, I recommend a research.
2.As you can see, this macro trend was broken and now the price has reached the retesting area of the trend line, which has now become a resistance + monthly resistance and the 0.5 fib level.
3.So here it becomes the ultimate test for the crypto market.
It is necessary for both resistances to be broken and confirmed so that breaking the trend line is actually a fakeout on a monthly basis.
4.A rejection from this point would mean less liquidity in the market and obvious corrections to measure.
I don't want to scare anyone, I'm not bearish, I'm simply following the evolution and price action.
IF the Crypto and BTC assumed as traditional market productsPlease note that there is different fundamental behind BTC. However, all prices no matter what market belongs, the price moves in the same ways. This is Wyckoff methodology, which also imprinted my own style. There is only real thing you should consider always that there is always a market cycle, if it is not a ponzi or scam product.
If you expecting to price visit 2. box POC then what preventing you from thinking the price won't come to POC of 1. box.
Anyway this is my idea, however, it always on the table. News, Fuds, ETF approves don't change anything, actually you can see the incoming of those things from the charts, always.
PS: 1. and 2. box different stages, and the 3. box (bigger one) is exactly the same as 1 and 2 :)
Also, I tried to show the Fixed volume of 3. box by transparanting and meving slightly back so you can identify it.
Good Luck.
Crypto Total Market CapHello Friends 😁
📈 In-Depth Crypto Market Analysis 🚀 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
There has been a notable need for a corrective wave (4). Upon further analysis, it appears that the correction has taken the form of a bullish contracting triangle.
This corrective structure suggests a temporary consolidation and typically culminates in a breakout. It's essential to note that within this triangular correction, Wave (e) is anticipated to overshoot the trendline. This occurrence often signals a short-term decline in various cryptocurrencies.
🔍 Key Points to Consider:
Bullish Triangle Correction: The current correction in the Total Crypto Market Cap is exhibiting characteristics of a bullish triangle, indicating potential bullish momentum in the near future.
Wave (e) Dynamics: Keep a close eye on Wave (e) as it is expected to overshoot the trendline. This overshooting is a crucial element in triangle formations and could lead to a short-term dip in cryptocurrency prices.
Short-Term Caution: Due to the nature of corrective structures, a brief dip in cryptocurrency values is plausible in the immediate future. Traders should exercise caution and be prepared for potential short-term fluctuations.
Anticipating Wave 5: Following the completion of the corrective phase, the market is poised for a breakout into Wave 5. This phase often represents a resumption of the overall bullish trend.
As we navigate this corrective period, staying informed and adapting strategies accordingly is key. Consider adjusting your positions in response to short-term fluctuations, with an eye on the anticipated bullish momentum once Wave 5 initiates.
Bye 🫡