TOTAL trade ideas
TOTAL : RETESTscenario where TOTAL falls dramatically over the next few days until it resumes the downtrend line from the last bull run.
plan for junefractal from november playing out, nice top for eth at 2150 as said before, long rn for the last pullback, then the real nuke starts and imo the best buying opportunity of the coming months :)
TOTAL MCThe cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen below 1 trillion and found support at the lower channel boundary and the weekly 50 MA. I believe the price could rebound towards the channel's middle line. Further movement will depend on news
TOTAL wants to test MA200A Head and Shoulders in 1D Time Frame broke down, target is MA200. We should be ready to open Long positions if there is a bounce of MA200 after candle daily candle close. If you have long positions set Stop Lost, manage your risk.
[UPDATE TOTAL] I said it multiple times. This a good scenario.Accumulation means accumulation.
Short term:
A) quick pump, then down, then deviation (yellow line), then trend range down, then deviation to 1st of Jan 2021, then up.
B) quick dump, then up, then A)
Long term:
A) meltup after accumulation, then down
B) Up then down again after halving
See chart.
This is one of the scenarios I'm watching.
total crypto marketc capThis is my pov about the future of the total crypto market cap for the last half of 2023. Final bearish wave will happend soon
Crypt Total Market Cap, Uptrend?This chart shows the total Crypto Market Cap, includes every coin on the market.
The Fib levels are drawn from the Covid Crash to the ultimate November Top. Upon the bearmarket retrace we bounced of teh 0.786 support zone to reach current resistance at 0.618.
There is a clear uptrend forming, now this is nothing to trade with imo, just important to note that this might be an area of support.
BTC is strong and we can clearly see that when comparing to the "Total Crypto Market Cap excluding BTC and ETH"
If there is more downside here i expect BTC Dominance to hit those 52%-55% levels
and ETH dominance to hit 22%-25%
while the Altcoin market will suffer greatly...
I still like the odds and will be swapping some ETH into altcoins once all the economical announcements are made this week and the data is clear.
Will also keep ammo for lower levels.
One thing to keep in mind, its all about perspective, just imagine seeing these levels during the bullmarket. These are the "Ah man i wish i bought then" levels
V Shaped Recovery, Big Pump AheadOn the last crash, we came down and touched the 200 SMA and then when the dust settled we took off for a 40% gain on the market over the next 30 days roughly.
This time around we are doing the same so far, we came down and touched the 200 sma.
My Prediction is that this attack on crypto will lack any sort of real agency. They can try to cut off the money supply but its like trying to seal up a leaky vessel, money will get on and into exchanges anyways. Peoples fear will fade, and we will go back up. Because right now the SEC can only file papers in court and try to scare us.
People should be laughing an Gensler and the SEC. We should V recover up to about 1.44T in the next 15-45 days.
Then the real blastoff happens, heading into the next halving.
Here is why, and this all hinges on one thing, the XRP case, which is comin to a close.
A favorable outcome in this case will DESTROY Gensler and warrens "Attack on Crypto" because it will invalidate one of their main accusations which is that all ALTS are securities.
Hey Gensler - Bye Felisha
BOOM, market explodes.
MARKETS week ahead: June 12 – 18Last week in the news
It was quite a stressful week for the crypto market, as the SEC continued with its effort to put crypto business in the US under “regulation”. On the other hand, US equity markets continue with gains during the last month, with S&P 500 moving above 4.300 points. Bitcoin is ending the week modestly above $25.5K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.7K.
Previous week started with bad news for the crypto market. Both Binance and Coinbase were sued by the SEC alleging unregistered business aside from a few other regulatory topics. As officially published on SEC`s website, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance entities and its founder Changpeng Zhao. As noted, charges include “operating unregistered exchanges, broker-dealers, and clearing agencies; misrepresenting trading controls and oversight on the Binance.US platform; and the unregistered offer and sale of securities''. As for the lawsuit against Coinbase, SEC has officially published that the company is alleged for “unregistered offer and sale of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program”. Another issue is that SEC named at least 13 coins which they defined as “crypto asset securities' ', including Solana token, Cardano`s token ADA, Polygon`s MATIC and Protocol Lab`s Filecoin. Robinhood exchanger immediately took an action delisting all coins named in the SEC lawsuit. Market reaction was that altcoins crashed during the week. Still, BTC and ETH have not been significantly affected. All these companies made a statement during the week, strongly disagreeing with the SEC that these tokens are securities. On the other side, many analysts and investors are noting that this is all a result of lack of clear regulation in the US for crypto businesses. There are also those who find SEC lawsuits as positive for crypto, as they will finally bring some clarity into regulation.
After the lawsuit from the SEC, Binance.US made an announcement that from June 13th they will be transitioning to all-crypto exchange, in which sense, they will no longer support deposits in USD, including USD-based trading pairs. All products currently offered will be available but only in crypto currencies.
Markets in the US were generally supported by the recent debt-ceiling deal, and recent jobs data, where the US economy showed high resilience to the current macroeconomic environment and monetary measures imposed by the Fed. The US equity market indices were up to their highest level since August last year. However, not all economists are of the same opinion regarding resilience of the US economy. In an interview with CNBC, Bob Michele, Chief investment officer in JPMorgan Chase, noted that the previous recession in 1980 started after an average 13 months after the Fed`s final rate increase, and that current economic situation reminds him of that period. He also noted that industries which will suffer the most are “regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers”. During the week ahead the inflation data will be released, and a FOMC meeting will be held, where potential for further rate increases will be discussed.
Crypto market cap
For one more time in the history of the crypto market, regulators were the ones to completely spoil a good game. Monday started with negative news about a new lawsuit from SEC against Binance, while already the following day another lawsuit emerged against Coinbase, one of the largest and also publicly listed crypto exchangers. Someone might say, there is nothing new with SEC, still, this time lawsuits were different and imposed significant market reaction. Namely, within the lawsuits SEC named at least 13 altcoins, treating them as the crypto asset securities. Some of the names mentioned include Polygon (MATIC), Sandbox (SAND), Filecoin (FIL), Axie Infinity (AXS), Chiliz (CHZ), Flow (FLOW), Internet Computer (ICP), Near (NEAR), Voyager (VGX), Dash (DASH) and Nexo (NEXO). This imposed significant run-off from these assets and also forced liquidations in margined open positions, pushing the prices further to the downside. Considering the circumstances, BTC, ETH and XRP were among rare coins which had a relatively good week, with a decrease in price below 9%. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 9% w/w, losing FWB:98B in total value. Daily trading volumes doubled from a week before, moving around $85B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year decreased to 33%, where it has added a total $253B to the market cap.
It was quite a bad week for altcoins, which lost a significant portion of their previous value. Major coins, excluding BNB, lost less than 10%, which might be treated as positive considering general circumstances. BTC lost some 5.8% w/w, erasing almost FWB:31B in its total value. ETH was down by 8.3%, losing $19B in total market cap. XRP was also on the downside, with total cap decrease of almost 6% or $1.6B. BNB was strongly affected by the negative news, and lost more than 23% in value or $11B. ADA was mentioned in the SEC lawsuit, so its value dropped by more than 32%, loosing $4B in market cap. In this group belongs Filecoin, which was down by 31% , Polygon dropped by 37.6% w/w, while DASH was down by 31%. Majority of all other altcoins were down between 15% and 26%. The only coin which gained in value is Tether, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.26% w/w. As for other coins, there has been some increased circulation by 0.2% for Stellar and Polkadot, while Solana and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.3% w/w.
Crypto futures market
Regardless of general negative news on the market, the BTC and ETH futures were holding relatively good during the week. However, it should be considered that CME is closed during weekends, so Saturday trading sessions on the spot market still have not been priced by futures on the organized market. BTC short term futures were closed on Friday less than 3% lower from the week before. December 2023 was traded at a 0.98% lower price from the week before, at level of $27.355. Futures maturing in December next year were down by 1.34% w/w, and were closed at a price of $27.990.
ETH short term futures were traded down by some 3.6%, while futures maturing in December this year ended the week flat, with the latest price of $1.889. Longer term ETH futures were down by some 1.2%, with December 2024 ending the week at level of $1.919.
Ninja Talks: Identification I used to identify a ton with being a "trader" - for a while it was cool to tell people you're a trader, they immediately get interested and it's a great way to flex.
However, (1) It's in NO way useful to anyone except your own ego and (2) If you're genuinely not earning a living from your trading then even worst you are propping up a veil of deceit to everyone you meet.
I've done both.
Yes I was broke telling people I was a trader and then I became profitable and kept bragging I was a trader.
Now I barely mention it to people.
Quick side note: I'm not shaming the people with a dream who truly believe they can be traders and thus tell everyone they meet aka speaking it into reality, but understand the stark difference between delusion and reality and ultimately your trading will improve.
Delusion kills accounts.
Literally.
That's why we lose.
Delusion in analysis, opening and closing a trade is the symptoms of most ailing patient in the trader universe.
So in closing all I'm saying is be careful how you speak to others, but more importantly to yourself.
See you in the next episode Ninjas!
Nick
Slanted Mushroom Pattern: Short-Term Emergence!We are currently observing the emergence of a fascinating pattern known as the "slanted mushroom." This unique pattern tends to occur during bearish market conditions, yet it offers a glimmer of hope in the form of a spike, resembling the peak of a mushroom. In real-time trading, it can be likened to a moment of temporary respite amid a gloomy outlook, where the sight of a visually appealing mushroom protruding from the bushes brings a smile to one's face. Similarly, unexpected market dynamics resembling a mushroom can be encountered in trading, just as they appear in real life.
However, it's important to recognize that mushrooms, like favorable trading conditions, are ephemeral and transient. Therefore, it is wise to anticipate a change in trend shortly after observing a spike. Remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions. May fortune favor all traders in their endeavors!
Preparing for A "Best-Case" Scenario As I've been talking about over the last several weeks, the market SEEMS overdue for some sort of relief rally. Although I believe crypto has begun a longer term downtrend and likely will not see all-time highs in the foreseeable future, it is not unreasonable to expect some hope to be injected into the market before further sustained downside. Of course, the market can also continue its death-spiral, but I'm seeing what usually constitute bottoming signals:
1) Overwhelming negative sentiment
2) Retail traders becoming interested in shorting
3) Extremely negative articles in the news
4) Low Bitcoin exchange balance - this one may not mean much since supply doesn't need to affect traded price, but historically the balance goes UP along with major distribution, not down.
5) Indicators. The MACD, Ultimate Oscillator, and Stoch all leave room for several weeks of upside, even if it's a slow grind.
Unfortunately, many of these "bottoming" signals already presented themselves at the three previous "floors," at $32k, $28k, and now $17.6k.
Most traders trying to time a bottom still expect the crypto market to reach a new all-time high eventually. I do not operate under this assumption anymore. I think most of those people will get rekt and throw good money after bad. This would be the phase where the larger exchanges assume even more risk to keep the market afloat, and the next leg down begins when those larger firms capitulate as well. I think the biggest crypto bulls (C.Z., Michael Saylor, etc.) will be forced to admit defeat before bottom is reached. This is just my brazen opinion.
What's Different This Time??
The only thing that *could* be different this time is that declining oil prices may alleviate liquidity constraints across markets. We may even get a rapid deflationary period, kind of in a whipsaw reaction to easing supply bottlenecks and fuel price relief. Michael Burry mentioned something about this recently. Deflation could lead to momentary relief in markets, as people buy back some riskier assets. However, it may also be accompanied by declining profits for companies, and eventually severe layoffs. Optimistically, this could improve the outlook for small businesses and community organizations, but cause mayhem for large corporations. All of this is speculation, of course, since there are so many interacting variables with unpredictable behavior and outcomes.
Why Would The Market Go Up, if Everything Sucks?
I myself have been incredibly negative about crypto since the beginning of 2022, well before most of the carnage hit the market, so I was able to reduce my risk and get out in time. Here is the post that marked my transition from long term bullish to longer term bearish, in the very beginning of 2022. I received criticism from more experienced investors for being too flighty.
But now is it time for me to become more positive? Am I still being too flighty? To be honest, I still don't see anything of substance emerging from the crypto market, but I do admit that the emotions of traders are likely to continue being manipulated, which could result in some surprisingly large upside moves. I think the most likely way traders will be manipulated is to the upside. Hence, I am looking for some opportunities at current levels to buy a little bit, to be sold towards the end of the year. I am so disconnected from any emotional attachment to crypto at this point that I can have a fairly balanced approach, and not care about wishing new all-time highs into existence.
On the above chart, I've drawn a speculative trajectory to show a somewhat realistic outlook for the coming months, based on the broader market structure and sentiment. This is the best I think we can hope, if the market is to bounce. I think there is a slim possibility for a complete reversal here, but I noted the conditions necessary for that in my last analysis, linked here:
People are now talking about the Pi cycle bottom indicator for Bitcoin, which just flashed. Sure, this can be a bottom. As I keep saying, buyers are welcome to that $20k Bitcoin at any time, although bulls really don't want to see it become heavy resistance. As it now stands, the 200 week MA is already becoming resistance for the very first time in Bitcoin's history.
This is really bad news. But, it still holds on the TOTAL chart.
What's particularly interesting about the above chart is that the TOTAL crypto market cap tested its 2017 all-time high perfectly. If it continues to hold, I think the market can build a bit of a base here and try to exit the downtrend closer to the end of 2022. My speculation is that this breakout fails and TOTAL cannot hold above its next major weekly Moving Average (100 MA, yellow), while traditional markets make a lower high peak after weeks of slowly grinding up. Then, once 2023 begins, markets enter a new phase of implosion. I think it's fairly likely we see some debt-related liquidations across major financial firms in the U.S., as the central bank will remain under stress due to over-reliance on the dollar. The crypto collapse in this case is a strong warning signal to major financial institutions. Without the ability to print much money, I think we enter the worst depression since the 1929. Something like this:
How Can We Avoid The Collapse?
Unless economic conditions sort themselves out miraculously, and unless humanity does some seriously aggressive problem-solving, I think it will be really hard to avoid a depression. Most importantly, the U.S. needs to motivate its workforce and develop projects people actively want to work on - such as improving transportation infrastructure and water management/conservation infrastructure. This could actively solve both inflation and labor issues while helping us move forward in a future that will likely be characterized by severe clean water shortages and changes in how we use fuel. Unfortunately, humans have been trained to be more reactive than proactive over the last century, which makes the aggressive problem-solving more likely to occur once we have reached peak disaster, rather than beforehand. Part of this is due to exploitation and wealth inequality. Since the wealthy elite hold the power and they also do not feel the effects of global economic turmoil until things are at their worst, they are unlikely to do anything preventative. This isn't always because they are bad people, but simply because their privilege makes them blissfully unaware, and less likely to take actions that they see as too "drastic."
The good news is, major contractions are opportunities for growth, in the longer term. Think of it as a necessary growing pain for humanity.
Now if this is the BEST-case scenario, what's the worst? Well, the market can actually just continue to the downside here and offer zero opportunity for people to get out at higher prices. This becomes more likely if traditional markets have not yet reached their short-term bottom, and if more systemic issues surface. Even if Bitcoin heads to a new low shortly, there is still the possibility for a relief rally in the coming months, although it's mostly guesswork.
This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for personal use, speculation, and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Total lost a critical level of supportThis first part of the year was a good one for Crypto bulls with Total rising around 70% from the bottom to the top.
However, after the mid-April top, Crypto Total Market Cap has started to drop, and what, at first, looked like a normal correction is looking more and more like a reversal to the main bearish trend at this moment.
In favor of this outlook is the fact that yesterday Total lost an important level of support at 1.05-1.06 and this would suggest, at least technically, that this year's rise is no more than a correction, not a reversal.
At this moment, as said, the market is under 1.05-1.06 support which should provide resistance now and we could expect continuation to the downside in the next weeks.
In conclusion, I'm looking to sell rallies on major coins
total marketcap breaked the trendlineas you see the chart total breaked the trendline and after the pullback i think it is possible to touch 530B and 430B! so market is risky and we must fallow btc to see it break 25k-24k or not!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
Crypto looks like it will get to 400 billion total market cap18ma monthly was support, now it's strong resistance. Looks like it's breaking down now.
Eventually the monthly BB will get touched, right now around 400 billion give or take.
Crypto market trend downCrypto market has been under pressure for couple of weeks but now with information about binance things might be a bit hard now. For moment out of crypto market!
Total Cripto MarketCAP UpdateThe Parallel Channel is Broken To the downside now,Next Stop 0.5 Fib Level witch is a key level in my opinion and it will be held for next leg up that can be a short lived leg or a Big Bull Run Leg.
I am leaving the USA for a smarter government FU SEC...The outflow from the markets never happened as expected from previous postings. Support was strong
and held up in the markets.
I am tired of watching the us government destroy the countries economy and the attacks from the SEC
is ridiculous. The SEC has committed an act of terror on american soil and the government is standing
by doing nothing to stop the insanity.
The US dollar has been losing value ever since it was first printed. It takes more and more
dollars to live every year and they criticize crypto.
Lost faith in the centralized governments control for power over everything.
Support or let crypto get destroyed in america. Inflation will ramp up 2x if the markets leave the usa.
Mark my words the great depression is being forced on americans and the economy will feel the strain.
I am leaving and renouncing my citizenship next week. This government is run by dumb old people.
TotalDisclaimer
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Pre and post FTX, scams and now Gensler's FUD, united in coloursAngle: 63 degrees
Gradients: y:1 and x:0.5095
Giving a grade of 196.3%
The world can't wait any longer for Web3's fruition.
Nobody can kill an idea that is ripe to blossom.
Many PhDs are in the making and this is humanity's ethical way to control AI and incoming AGI.
This can not just stay in the hands of GAFAM and dictatorships like China and the like.
Pick your best 50 smarts Alts to DeFi and MemeFi under Web3.
Start with BTC with a dominant weighting and add some FWB:PEPE memFi to this mix.
Web3 will prevail over Web2's human rights manipulations and violations.
Democracy depends on it.
Keep Taiwan free as it is the most vibrant Web3 democracy right now.
Watch ''The Creepy Line'' and '' Matt Furie's ''Feels Good Man'' to understand what we are dealing against.
Stay safe. The misogynistic divide is ending.
Women just need to stand up and we will follow.
Love and peace to the world now.
OMS
P.S. suspended on Twitter for these ideas... the irony is that Twitter is bringing back Trump just in time for 2024!
Yep, the President of Kekistan returns to Twitter. But we see you KeKers, we see you now!
A view on Crypto market #crypto I have noticed that the more I pay attention to the media the more things don't make sense.
Somehow these charts signal that the crypto market will grow and rise. But then also when I look at the stock market S&P500, there are signs that things might improve and the price will increase even though inflation is still in the house.
SO, we have gathered that the crypto market tends to move with the S&P 500 but then I'll keep an eye on this and update the chart.
#crypto #bitcoin
