Total2 - threatening cycle top. 3W 21 SMAThe total2 is currently losing the trendline that it has held since 2017 for a second time. We were able to push back up through it last year.
Circled in purple are the times in history that the Total2 has came in contact with the 3W 21 SMA and either battled the 3W 21 SMA only to come back down through it...and close candles below it. Every time that this has happened, it has either been a market cycle top leading into a bear market, or the COVID crash...which was coming off of a market cycle bottom...so it is a tad different.
What are we doing in current time? We are losing the 2017 trendline for a second time this cycle, and we are also battling the 3W 21 SMA for a second time this cycle. If we don't have a very strong rally to push us up and out of trouble, then chances are we have a big crash, and perhaps fall into a bear market.
We are coming off of 3W bearish divergence playing out on the RSI and Stoch RSI, and the stoch RSI momentum is pointing downward. The 1W stoch rsi is oversold right now, though. So, price action on a weekly basis is what can save us, but it is looking pretty grim.
Downside targets would be 841B at the .50 fib, and 688-720B at the .618 pocket area.