🔥 Your Altcoin Can Potentially Fall MUCH Further: WARNING! 🚨In this analysis I want to take a look at a dire market outlook which is not even that far-fetched. We should talk about the possibility of the altcoin marketcap (TOTAL3) falling another 50%, which would mean that the average altcoin will lose around 50% of its value from this point until the bottom.
Back in 2018, TOTAl3 fell around 92%, while it has only fallen by 75% this bear market. The difference seems small, but if we were to fall towards a 92% top-to-bottom decline this bear market, it would mean we had to fall another 70% from this point onwards.
I'm a big believer in the law of diminishing returns when it comes to crypto, but a mere 75% decline seems too little for me.
There's some bad news on the horizon which can make the altcoin marketcap decline by another 50%.
- Rising Bitcoin dominance.
- Rising bond yields
A 50% crash from this point would bring the top-to-bottom decline to 85% (bottom yellow area). This would seem to be more in line with the diminishing returns hypothessis.
Do you think we will crash more from this point? Share your thoughts and charts.🙏
TOTAL3 trade ideas
NEXT BULL RUN?AS PROMISED TO YOU TODAY, I WILL SHARE A PERSONAL VIEW OF THE MARKET IN THE NEXT TIME (ALL ARE PERSONAL VIEWS, EACH ITEM HAS AN IF AND THEN SO PLEASE PLEASE TAKE ATTENTION AND NOT COMPLETELY ENTER):
I. ABOUT BTC PRICE
- CRYPTOCAP:BTC At this stage, I assess the recovery will be around $29,400 - $30,500, then create a Head and Shoulders model and adjust to the $17,600 area. You can see the pictures to see the progress of the recovery period. This will be the reason for creating an altcoin bottom in the late 2023 to early 2024 period. If the price breaks through $32,500, we will sit back and watch again.
II. ABOUT DOM BTC
- As you can see in the photo, this week Dom will work on altcoins when profits are stagnant, but when Dom breaks through 48.6%, you can dream of a few weeks of strong market recovery. BREAK THROUGH 52% AND STOP DREAMING
III. TOTAL MKC
This is the entire market capitalization: You can dream about capitalization reaching 1.25T again. However, I personally believe that this recovery is not sustainable and could create a double top pattern
IV. TOTAL3 This is the main capitalization of Altcoin representing Altcoin Season. In this chart, I am expecting a profit-taking correction this week or next week for MM to be around 10-20B and then recover to the 430B area. This is the point where you should consider taking profits because I personally think there will be a deep correction of Alt when Total 3 falls from 430B to the 90 - 120B area <= This is also the area where I will choose a few projects. potential to buy throw away account delete.
SO IN OVERVIEW, I think 2024 will be 2019 of the previous cycle and the bull season will start in 2025.
IF YOU HAVE ANY OPINIONS, PLEASE COMMENT BELOW. IF IT FEELS REASONABLE, SHARE. WILL UPDATE IN NEXT ARTICLES!
TOTAL 3 - STAY COOL TOTAL 3 just crossed EMA 200 on 4 h
It made a beautiful consolidation (I measured it with Camarilla pivots).
Don't panic through the RETEST period. If we stay at the marked levels our lovely alts are okay. If you choose so, buy more.
The PANIC Square is the place where it's better to chill and not look at your portfolio every day. Relax. Don't sell. HODL.
It will go to the HOPE area just below the main Resistance. This is the capitalization at which profit forecasts of the order of x100, x1000, and x2000 will pour down like torrential rain. The promotions and the calls for staking large percentages of CEXes will too. CHILL. Be sure that your bags are in your cold wallet. No need to be greedy here.
To be continued after TOTAL 3 brokes the RESISTANCE.
Double bottom forming on TOTAL3, start of uptrend for ALTS?TOTAL3 vs Nasdaq 100 key takeaways:
- HTF falling wedge
- Double bottom forming on 1W
- RSI strength on current second bottom (provided this is going to be a double bottom indeed)
- Volatility at historic lows
Unconfirmed yet, wait for weekly close.
Altcoins setting up for MASSIVE MOVE in a few monthsJust noticing some things as research is done.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC showing signs of POTENTIAL bottoming. However, it is NOT strong by any means. But, some is better than none.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH is also in a similar pattern but it is underperforming.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO #BTC or #ETH looks interesting, indeed!
It may take some time but it is setting up for HUGE MOVE!
This move will likely not resolve until late 2023 - early 2024.
Narratives, Blockchain to AI and the bounce...TOTAL3 over NASDAQ tells a story of shifting narratives. When we reach range low here, I expect the "remaining winners" (BTC, SOL, ETH, etc.) to have a stronger bounce than TOTAL3 itself, so whilst this is a strong indicator and confluence, you'll want to pair with entries on specific coins to achieve higher beta.
Total3: 500D trendline brokenThe Total MC excl. BTC and ETH (Total 3) has broken a trendline that it has been under for 500+ days.
Currently it's retesting an order block/weekly level.
The Altcoin Season Index (Blockchaincenter.net) is at 39 and climbing.
Putting on my rose coloured glasses: up from here? :)
📈 We've Been Here Before | Altcoins Market -Bitcoin- Boom!It is a repeating theme and a signal that we've used successfully many times in the past, using the Altcoins market to gauge Bitcoin's strength.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is hard to read, it can't be any other way. It is a big market, a huge market and millions of professionals gather daily in front of their computers and electronic devices to make money, lose money; to trade.
Please be compassionate if at times we get it wrong, it is not an easy game and while some signals are quite "clear", they can be fake and are produced by a strong market force. Again, there are millions and millions of people playing but only a small few hold all the firing power, so we are bound to be tricked every now and then.
We make no excuse, losing, sweating, fighting, learning, growing... Winning! It is all part of the game.
We've been here before. The Cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, is in a consolidation pattern, it is hard to tell if the next major move will be down or up but there is a signal we used before in the past that produces 100% success. While we can't tell by the Bitcoin charts, the Altcoins reveal the game.
When Bitcoin is consolidating and puts everybody in doubt mode, we can know perfectly well what is going to happen based on where the Altcoins go.
If Bitcoin goes sideways and the entire Altcoins market goes red, we get a very strong warning as to what might potentially happen next.
If Bitcoin goes sideways and the Altcoins also, they all stop, we can become doubtful and not know certainly what's to come.
But when Bitcoin goes sideways and the Altcoins market starts booming, major breakouts, 3 digits growth every single day, hundreds of pairs growing, we know what will happen next.
The fact that the Altcoins market is bullish, signals that Bitcoin is bullish as well.
When the consolidation phase is over, Bitcoin will move ahead.
Allow some time for this to develop, price fluctuations are normal, down or up. Short-term there can be swings, shakeouts, volatility... But the major move nonetheless will end up being up.
Bitcoin will break bullish, you can tell by looking at how the Altcoins grow.
This signal always worked in the past, it will work again... The market will grow for months!
You read that? MONTHS!
Just watch!
It is inevitable!
It will happen even if we undergo the much feared/anticipated...
Namaste.
An incoming last correction wave for #altcoins #total3 presents #altcoins ' market cap excluding #btc and #eth . After the 1st long correction wave, the chart formed falling channel. This formation will be completed with the 3rd correction wave and the dip of the channel will occur. When Elliott' s 123 correction wave is finished, the falling channel will turn bullish. This may be after the halving. 3rd wave seems to plunge altcoins' average by min. %30. Be careful till Q2 2024.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Dyor.
TOTAL3 - (DAI USDT USDC market caps)In case you are not familiar:
TOTAL3 = Total crypto market cap - BTC and ETH market caps.
What I did in this chart is further subtract out the three major stable coin market caps.
TOTAL3 - (DAI USDT USDC market caps).
To be exact:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:DAI-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC
Since their price is pegged to $1, they serve as a dampening effect to the chart. I remove them to get more of a true value for what TOTAL3 should be.
I then did an Elliott wave analysis. In addition, I set a fibonacci target of -0.236, although this is not a traded asset, but a aggregation of traded assets. So we'll see. It looks like alts will do one more wave down, then the bull run starts.
I am a CEWA level 1 Elliottician.
TOTAL3 trend!2 sets of Fib lines drawn on this chart,
long term Bull fib ext. in Black colour &
Bear Fib ext drawn from prior 2 tops which suggests an ABC corrective pattern, expanded Flat, in play. such patterns often get extended to multiples of Golden fib ratio in worst cases.
even with worst case scenario up move of correction of the whole bear leg is well over due .
expected levels in case of an ABC upward and if more optimistic view continuation to upper levels shown on chart.
Weekly momentum , bull divergence in play, also same bull divergence seen on daily.
The Crypto market bottom is close !!Total 3 analysis ( all market cap except BTC -ETH)
Iam surprised how this chart looks so similar to famous market cycle physiology chart
According to the famous model we are likely to form the final low (Depression phase) very soon in Q4/2023 or early 2024 after that new bull cycle start !
Be patient the hardest moves of bears are done
Gold things take time
Best of wishes
Level by level killing useless coinsWe are in a different era for the crypto industry. Although some meme coins pop up time to time, the market struggles to get new money. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 shows the total crypto marketcap excluding BINANCE:BTCUSD and BINANCE:ETHUSD . We can see that the price established levels and is struggling to move upward. This means that the players need to select useful projects and rotate money to catch up the big moves. Thus, whenever we loose a level, useless coins loose big percentages (10-20%). For now we are holding this big support zone, loosing this zone means that crypto exchanges are going to delist your shitcoins. Be selective when building the long-term bag.
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