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#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: As expected, the first decent selling on Monday and bulls are running for the exits. Climactic buying, followed by climactic selling. I don’t expect the bulls to fight this, like the bears did not fight anything from 17400 to 18990. The 50% pullback at 18000 is a decent target where the bulls could try to stall it and hope for a bounce. At this point it’s useless to try to call a top or anything beyond the next 2 weeks. If anything, it’s 50/50 if we make another ath this year or not. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears came around right below 19000 and produced strong enough selling to trigger many stops. Bulls are fearful that we test all the way back down to 17000 and that’s why we don’t see much resistance from them. In any bear case over the next weeks, the bear gap to 18730 has to stay open. On the weekly chart it’s now an expanding triangle which is a form of a trading range. To hit 17000 over the next 1-2 weeks would be amazing for the bears again but I highly doubt they could get the market below, without any serious deterioration of macro schmackro stuff. Something has to break for this market to trade back to not maximum overvalued bubble territory. If you don’t think dax above 18000 is bubble territory while gdp is -0.3% for 2023 and flat at best in 2024, I can’t help you. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. → Last Sunday we traded 18906 and now we are at 18301. It was too early for shorts last Sunday but during Tuesday’s session it became clearer that the market wanted to go down. short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Decent to be in swing shorts now. Stop has to be 18700 or even 19000. Will join the bears on Monday, if they go straight below 18270 or on a decent pullback to 18500. chart update: Nothing. Removed the bull wedge and added the bear gap.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
DAX KEY LEVELS FOR 09/09/2024**Explanation:** This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits. It considers volume, past prices, and price range. **Entry/Exit Points:** - **Entry/Exit Lines:** Use the GREEN line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan. - **Stop Loss:** For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the GREEN line above. - **Take Profit:** For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next GREEN line below. **Timeframe:** Use a 5-minute timeframe for trading. **Risk Disclaimer:** This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details.
XETR:DAX
by nandupk
DAX40 Breakout in PlayThe DAX40 has just triggered a rectangle pattern, which has been developing over the past two days and six hours. The difference between the high and low of this rectangle is approximately 153 points. The breach at 18,518 indicates that the price could reach 18,363. Corrections toward the breakout point that do not push the price above 18,572 will keep this pattern valid. However, with the US payroll data due today, volatility could push the price either beyond the target or back into the rectangle formation, triggering a loss. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:GER40Short
by ThinkMarkets
DAX H1 | Potential bearish breakoutDAX (GER30) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 18,488.94 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and a descending trendline. Take profit is at 18,248.14 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
DAX40 stress: Volkswagen in retreat shakes Germany The DAX 40, which fell by 0.97 %, reflects the tension in various sectors of the German economy, not just the automotive sector. In addition to Volkswagen, other companies in the technology and manufacturing sectors are also under pressure. The TecDAX, which groups the main technology firms, fell by 1.50 %, affected by the fall of Infineon Technologies, whose value fell by 4.68 % due to the slowdown in demand for semiconductors and growing global competition. The consumer goods and manufacturing sector also showed signs of weakness, with the MDAX losing 1.05 %, reflecting the vulnerability of mid-sized companies that depend on the European domestic market. Companies such as Daimler Truck Holding AG, linked to transport and logistics, plunged 3.47%, hit by high costs and economic uncertainty.The combination of labor disputes, retrenchment strategies and a challenging economic environment is hitting multiple key sectors of the DAX, highlighting a complicated outlook for the German stock market and its investors. In the technical analysis, DAX40 (Ticker AT: GER40), shows the control point (POC) at 18,459.84 points and an RSI in the middle zone with 52.59%. Meanwhile, Volkswagen AG (Ticker: VOW3:XETR) is trending sideways after an August without significant movement. The selling pressure could continue in the coming weeks, until the financial situation of major technology and automotive firms such as Volkswagen stabilizes, marking a critical period for the German stock market and its investors. It would not be unusual to see the index price retest the mid-channel zone if it pierces the POC price this week. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40Short
by ActivTrades
DAX to continue in the upward move?GER40 - 24h expiry Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 18973. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. 20 4hour EMA is at 18886. We look to Buy at 18885 (stop at 18765) Our profit targets will be 19185 and 19265 Resistance: 18973 / 19100 / 19200 Support: 18900 / 18770 / 18700 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 has shifted into a bullish trend, entering an impulsive phase as it continues to rally into fresh record highs. The price has climbed to 18,871, easily above the updated VWAP of 18,397. Support has moved up to 17,630, while resistance is higher at 19,165. The RSI has increased to 67, indicating growing bullish momentum. UK 100 remains in a neutral trend, continuing its consolidation phase but with the short term rally gathering pace. The price has edged up to 8,359, still above the VWAP of 8,308. Support remains steady at 8,193, with resistance slightly adjusted to 8,424. The RSI holds at 56, reflecting stable momentum. Wall Street has transitioned into a bullish trend, now in an impulsive phase as it challenges previous record highs. The price has risen to 41,489, easily surpassing the VWAP of 40,689. Support has been lifted to 39,388, with resistance now at 41,989. The RSI has increased to 67, confirming stronger bullish momentum. Brent Crude continues its overall bearish trend, although momentum has faded over the past few periods, it is now in an impulsive phase again. The price has decreased to 76.80, below the VWAP of 78.52. Support has been adjusted to 75.25, while resistance is higher at 81.78, reflecting a wider trading range. The RSI has dropped to 43, signalling continued bearish momentum but with some slowing. Gold remains firmly in a bullish trend, in an impulsive phase as it sits near a record high. The price is slightly lower at 2,499, hovering around the VWAP of 2,495. Support has been adjusted to 2,438, with resistance at 2,545. The RSI has moderated to 55, indicating slightly cooling bullish momentum. EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend but has shifted to a corrective phase after 3 large down days on the trot. The price has settled at 1.1065, matching the VWAP. Support is now at 1.0900, with resistance slightly higher at 1.1235. The RSI has eased to 53, reflecting the beginning of a potential consolidation or pullback within the broader uptrend. GBP/USD continues its strong bullish trend in an impulsive phase. The price has dipped in the last 2 days to 1.3135, but remains well above the VWAP of 1.3031. Support has increased to 1.2711, while resistance is now at 1.3352. The RSI stands at 61, indicating persistent bullish momentum. USD/JPY remains in a bearish trend, transitioning into a corrective phase. The price has risen slightly to 146.78, now above the VWAP of 146.12. Support is adjusted to 143.11, with resistance at 149.13. The RSI has moved up to 48, suggesting the bearish pressure is moderating but not yet reversed.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
DAX(GER30), nuke is coming?I explained the fundamental part in my EURUSD post. Check it out here: Now, let's talk about the technical part: At the London opening, we saw significant manipulation downward with a liquidity sweep from the previous day's low (PDL) and other swings. Now, I would love to see an aggressive movement upwards toward the all-time high (ATH), where I'll be looking for a short setup. However, if the price closes on the 1-4h time frame with a big fat candle, I won't touch the GER40 (DAX) for a while because there won't be any targets ("sky is the limit") to get liquidity from. There's one possible scenario: a move into premium after the first market structure (MS) shift today, followed by a second shift (break of structure, BoS). Bearish order flow will be confirmed, with the final target being the 4h fair value gap (FVG).
FOREXCOM:GER40Short
by Almenio