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25.08.24Ahead of the week commencing, for the US markets, there will be high impact US data every day this week with a close eye on Fridays PCE price index and also Eurozone inflation data. Last week Fed Chair Jerome stated there should be no more weaknening in the economy. As we've seen there has been a rally in price for a while. US30: Quite a whip saw week with price being very rangey through Jackson Hole meeting and the speech. After price has broken out of its previous week range it began to range in order to continue toward the monthly high that I will be aiming for price to reach at 41414.72 GER40: A more smoother chart this week with less whipsaw price actio, price has also broke out of weekly range, slightly lost abit of steam and coninuted on Wednesday to perform a common mid week reversal. Overall I see price on course to previous month highs but also BSL which is higher at 18916.9 Ahead of the week I'll be expecting the week to start of bullish or atleast taking Fridays highs
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by S0202Trades
Short tine frame strategyKey Order Blocks to Watch: 18587: High probability for initiating a bearish move if the price strongly rejects this level. 18520 & 18504: Moderate probability of acting as temporary support levels; monitor these for any continuation of bearish momentum. 18430: High probability as a critical support level. If the price reaches and breaks this level, it could confirm a stronger bearish trend. Strategy: Short Position Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price rejects the 18587 level with clear bearish signals. Stop Loss: Place your stop loss slightly above 18587 to manage risk. Take Profit Levels: Consider taking profits around 18520 and 18504. If bearish momentum continues, aim for 18430 as a further take profit level. Monitoring: Pay close attention to how the price reacts at 18520 and 18504. A strong breach below these levels indicates continued bearish strength. If the price breaks below 18430, it may signal a more significant downward move, potentially extending your short position.
XETR:DAX
by onlynasir
1
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: 18700 was my upper target for the week and the high was 18730. Market now created 3 legs up but we don’t know high leg 3 can get. There is no reason to assume bears will begin stronger selling. If 18730 holds next week, consider me surprised. A bigger pullback after a 9% move up is expected but as of now, there are no facts to base this on. Shorting into a strong bull trend is a losing strategy in the long run. Targets for bulls are 18800, 18900 and obviously the ath at 19204. Bears would need to get below 18400 to have better arguments on their side. Quote from last week: bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line. Info: Will post the weekly updates on the DAX Index from XETRA and only daily updates on DAX futures. Everyone who trades futures should be able to cope with the fact that it’s a 60 point difference atm. comment: Bulls went mostly sideways until Friday which means that bears are still not doing much. Friday produced another breakout for W5, where my target is still 18800ish. Low probability the bear trend line from the ath will hold again. If bulls can get this above 18800, there is no reason to not print a new ath. Bears would need consecutive bear bars below 18500 to stop it. Bulls should not have the illusion that this is something other than a short squeeze. This is not buying on higher volume due to more market participants wanting in on the next bull run to 30000. This will crumble soon enough but for now it’s only going up and you should never fight the trend. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. We are in the last leg of this trend and no one should be surprised if we close August below 18000 key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls hardly meeting any resistance by the bears on the daily chart and they dance as long as the musics plays. They know the rally is climactic and a deeper pullback can happen anytime. They want to break the bear trend line from the ath and print a new one but they would need to find much more buyers above 18700. The rally was more bears stepping aside than strong bulls buying. On the weekly and monthly chart we are at the high of this bull wedge and market bounced just shy of the monthly 20ema 2 weeks ago. If bulls close the month above 18550, it would be another buy signal. Invalidation is below 18350. bear case: Any bull buying above 18700 buys into previous resistance, near measured move target and at the bear trend line that held since May. No matter how you look at this, it is a bad buy. The rally is climactic without any pullbacks. Market only stalled for 1-2 days at most before breaking out again. Bears see all that and atrocious volume. They know it’s a short squeeze and that it can reverse fast. Right now they aren’t doing much but above 18700 bigger bears begin scaling into shorts again and if the market stalls enough, many bulls want to secure their profits before they vanish. Bears first target is 18500 and for the market to go sideways and start making lower highs and lower lows again. One more thing that’s easier to see on xetra than on futures is the monthly closes. Xetra has no close above 18510. Will this month be different? I doubt it. Also a clear ascending triangle if you take only bar bodies into account. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. → Last Sunday we traded 18322 and now we are at 18633. Neutral was wrong, market produced only 1 bear bar and even that could not get below the previous day’s low. Bad outlook. short term: I will not get bullish at 18633 when market could not close one month above 18510. I rather wait and scalp than to buy into a potential high. Rally went mostly without me but that’s ok. It’s about not losing first, then making some, then making the big bucks. Neutral going into next week. If bulls break above 18700, will scalp long for ath test. medium-long term: Market is right at the bear trend line from the ath. Decent chance we make a new one but I am much more certain that we will see 17000 in 2024 again. Will update more here next Sunday. current swing trade: Nope but I think we are getting close for me to short this again. chart update: Swapped dax futures to dax xetra and only left the most important prices on the chart and the 5 wave series. If we get a w5 in the same ballpark as W1 and W3, it could get us above 19000 but as of now, the bear trend line is valid.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
1
Ger30 Bearish Trend based on Resistance level in Higher TI've conducted a thorough analysis of the GER30 (DAX index) and its technical indicators. Here's a summary of my observations and potential implications for traders: Broken Bullish Trendline: The fact that the GER30 has broken below a bullish trendline on the M30 timeframe suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. This break could indicate a bearish reversal. Retest of Resistance: The retest of the broken trendline that is now acting as resistance is a key factor. If the price fails to break back above this level, it strengthens the bearish outlook. Higher Timeframe Resistance: Testing a strong resistance area of a bearish trending channel on higher timeframes adds more weight to this bearish analysis. The confluence of this resistance with the break of the trendline indicates a substantial selling pressure may be present. Potential Bounce and Downward Trend: Anticipating a bounce from this resistance area aligns with my analysis of market conditions, which could lead to a strong downward trend. Conclusion Traders might consider: Short positions if the market shows signs of reversal at the key resistance level. Risk Management: With potential volatility, placing stop-loss orders is essential to mitigate risks. Monitoring Other Indicators: Keeping an eye on volume, RSI, or MACD could provide additional confirmation for entry and exit points. Overall, our analysis presents a clear bearish sentiment for the GER30 moving forward. It's crucial to remain adaptable as market conditions can shift rapidly.
FX:GER30Short
by thobanizuma
DAX H4 | Approaching pullback resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,579.74 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 18,700.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 18,302.64 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
GER40 swing sell idea(1:10-1:20RR)GER40. 18500, which is our level of interest(Quarterly VWAP + 0.786 fib drawn from all time high) has been quite important level this year. GER40 has been bullish for 11 days straight. This indicates an overextended market, with the possibility of a Weekly Head& Shoulders pattern forming around 18500. This is a 10-20% move that should happen in a couple of weeks, counting the recent volatility in the markets all around. Will update next week. Fractals Trading Community, Mei
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by martinmei
CLEAN BUYS ON $DAX!XETR:DAX FX:GER30 Confluences for buys 1. Daily targets still not reached for a substantial pullback hence still bullish(Daily Target). 2. MSS confirmed this leaving behind a FVG a first line of defense as an IFVG(1) 3. Price action during the Asian session indicated supported buy-side pressure as shown by both VaL(2) and enventually after PoC(3). --------------- MSS- Market Structure shift PoC- Point of Control FVG-fair value Gap IFVG- Inverse Fair value Gap
FX:GER30
by raymondxkeen
Elliott Wave Intraday on DAX Favoring Bullish ContinuationShort Term Elliott Wave View suggests rally in XETR:DAX to 18892.92 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) unfolded as a double three structure where wave (W) ended at 17951.17 and wave (X) ended at 18779.40. Index then resumed lower in wave (Y) towards 17039.47 which completed wave ((4)). The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 17505.23 and wave ((ii)) ended at 17233.07. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 17666.82 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 17439.87. Final wave ((v)) higher ended at 17828.87 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 pullback ended at 17669.64 and Index has turned higher again. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 17921.99 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 17827.08. Index resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 18495.28 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 18354.33. Expect Index to extend higher in wave ((v)) and complete wave 3 in higher degree, then it should pullback in wave 4 to correct cycle from 8.13.2024 low before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 17039.47 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
XETR:DAX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
e-Learning with the TradingMasteryHub - 3 Strategies You Need Welcome to the TradingMasteryHub Education Series! Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Join us for another exciting lesson in our 10-part series where we dive deep into strategies that can transform your trading game. Whether you're a beginner or looking to refine your strategy, these lessons are designed to guide you on your journey to mastering the markets. Three Proven Strategies That Can Make You a Fortune, When You Follow Them with Discipline! In trading, having the right strategy is crucial, but even the best strategy won’t work if you don’t stick to it. Today, we’re uncovering three live-proven strategies that can potentially lead to massive gains—when executed with discipline and precision. 1. The Trend-Following Strategy: Ride the Waves Trend-following is all about identifying and capitalising on sustained market movements. This strategy involves buying when the market is in an uptrend and selling when it’s in a downtrend. The key is to use indicators like moving averages and the ADX (Average Directional Index) to confirm the strength of the trend. The beauty of trend-following lies in its simplicity. By aligning your trades with the market's momentum, you increase your chances of catching big moves. But remember, patience is key. Wait for clear signals before entering a trade, and always protect your position with a well-placed stop-loss to minimise risk. 2. The Breakout Strategy: Capture Explosive Moves Breakout trading focuses on identifying price levels where the market has repeatedly struggled to break through—these are your key support and resistance levels. When the price finally breaks out of these levels, it often leads to significant moves. To execute this strategy, use tools like the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Relative Volume (RVOL) to confirm the strength of the breakout. A high RVOL indicates that the breakout is supported by strong market participation, increasing the likelihood of a sustained move. The trick here is to act quickly but carefully, entering the trade as soon as the breakout is confirmed and setting your stop-loss just below the breakout level to protect against false moves. 3. The Mean Reversion Strategy: Profit from Market Extremes Mean reversion strategies work on the principle that prices eventually return to their average or "mean" after extreme moves. This approach is particularly effective in range-bound markets where prices oscillate between defined levels. To implement this strategy, you’ll need indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) or Bollinger Bands to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When the market shows signs of exhaustion at these extremes, you can enter a trade expecting a reversal back toward the mean. The key to success here is timing—enter too early, and you might get caught in a continued move against you; enter too late, and the best part of the move may already be over. The Key to Success: Discipline and Consistency While these strategies have the potential to deliver significant returns, they only work if you follow them with discipline. That means sticking to your trading plan, setting realistic profit targets, and most importantly, managing your risk. Remember, no strategy is foolproof—losses are part of the game. The goal is to stay consistent, manage your emotions, and keep learning from each trade, win or lose. Conclusion and Recommendation These three strategies—trend-following, breakout trading, and mean reversion—are time-tested and can be incredibly profitable when applied correctly. But success in trading doesn’t come from the strategy alone; it comes from the discipline to follow your plan, manage your risk, and stay calm under pressure. As you incorporate these strategies into your trading routine, focus on maintaining a strong risk/reward ratio and a consistent approach. Over time, this discipline will build the confidence and experience you need to potentially turn these strategies into a fortune. Can’t Get Enough? Don't Miss Out! Subscribe, share, and engage with us in the comments. This is the start of a supportive trading community—built by traders, for traders! Join us on the journey to market mastery, where we grow, learn, and succeed together. What You'll Learn: - Proven trading strategies - How to confirm trade setups - Risk management and execution - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by TradingMasteryHub