HK50 trade ideas
Are we in a bear market yet ?I love reading the news , in fact I do it daily either from the TV at night or from online news portal. But, I also sieve out the noises from the crowd and that is so important as it can whack your emotions into a roller coaster and cause undue stress, panick attack and cause you to take illogical decisions, like selling when there is a draw down.
A bear market in technical terms mean it has drop 20% or more from the peak in its share price. So, we look at HSI, we are currently less than 10% fall only. And it is still in the bullish trend.
One thing I have learnt the hard way is not to outsmart the market by predicting what moves it will make. By that, I mean assuming it is going to break down from the bullish trend line and shorting , hoping to get in at a higher price and maximise profits.
The question is ;WHAT IF it does not break down and reverse the trend instead ? With a few trades like this, you could easily burn your portfolio and sets you in a negative state, which is what we do not want.
So how ? JUST WAIT for the market to tell you what it is going to do. If it breaks down the support of 28, 273, that will be pretty convincing to take a short if I want to. (You always have a choice). Then, the price may tumble to say 26,751 and rebound or continue to break down further (as shown by the red arrows in the chart)
If someone puts a knife at my neck and asked me to take a bet, I would predict it is going to be bullish in the medium to long term with a profit target of 32,000 or more. How long will it takes to reach there ? I dunno. Will it reach there ? I also dunno .
All I know is to stay calm, trade what you see and see what you trade.
Hang Seng.....Back to a wave 4 level! And now?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng made a high on February 16 at 31183 with an intraday peak and on 30644.74 on a closing basis. Since then, HS has declined to new lows at 28326 (intraday) and 28497.39 on a closing price today!
Price have declined to a wave ((iv)) level and this is often a target for a corrective setback! So, on a short term view, it could be, that we have seen a first leg of a decline that has ended today.
On the hourly chart, you will take notice of the „Hammer-candle“, a reversal-candle as it's best!
As long as the low of this candle (@ 28376.22) is valid it is possible for HS to rise higher in the coming hours. One area for that reversal should be the high and the „kick-off“ of the sell-off candle today, at 28571.05!
Notice, that traders who sold HS at this level have a high interest to hold price below that level. So it could be a „hard fight“ ahead in the coming hours for that level!
On the other hand. Any decline below today's low at 28376 would bring a lower price in the coming hours, `cause the best sell-signal is a failed buy-signal! A first stop could be at 28130 area and below to 277xx levels.
Only an advance above the possible wave (c) high at 29596 could clear the view for the bulls.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI Butterfly Is Falling to Groundthe detail is shown in the above Idea.
HSI butterfly Need deep rest then it tried to rest in blue-colored level.
but the butterfly is so tired and if the butterfly tried to fly again then the butterfly fall to ground ( green zone ).
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Hong Kong Stock Index (Ready for the another leg UP?)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (12 Mar 2021)
We are seeing some strength coming back in the HK and it will use 28,000~28,750 as support region.
Once the current resistant of 29400~29500 is broken, it shall rise a lot higher.
29,750~30,000 will be the next.
Cheers.
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Is the Hang Seng starting to perform better than the S&P 500?When you look at the TVC:HSI vs AMEX:SPY you can see a downward trend for at least a decade. It tried a breakout in 2017 but then Trump started the trade war and it again went back to the downtrend.
Since October 2020, however, there seems to be another uptrend forming. Could this be a signal that Chinese stocks will perform better in the coming year vs US stocks?
Hang Seng Index sits in key levelDaily: descending channel meets weekly uptrend line, critical level to make choice!
1H: I need 3 MA lines to assemble and price closes above those lines. Before that, sellers are still in control.
Hang Seng.....Mixed picture!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has made a new high at 29550 on March 12, but it failed to exceed this advance.
Instead, it reversed direction of the short term trend and made new lows at 28739.73 today.
At this level, it met the low on March 10.
While the move from the possible wave ((iv)) low is a“three-up“, the trend seams to be down, with new lows ahead.
A decline below the blue trend line would open the door to lower price still. A first target should be around 28055, the high on February 17, 2020!
An advance above the March 12 high opens the door to 30K points, with more bullish potential ahead.
Be patient these days. If the discussion for higher rates (at US) will return to the floor, a quick and sharp move to the downside is possible.
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk.
Hang Seng Index - Supply & Demand AnalysisRecently Hang Seng Index reversed on a strong monthly Supply Zone finishing it's external bullish cycle
The price decided make an external bearish cycle.. now it's advised to SELL at long term basis.
Next destinations:
A) DEMAND (26908.14 - 26021.63)
Here price need to decide: if reverse in order to back to SUPPLY (32004.32 - 31126.20) OR BREAKOUT , retest and go to next DEMAND (23622.97 - 23204.17)
B) DEMAND (23622.97 - 23204.17)
Final external bearish cycle destination
Enjoy the Profits!
Hong Kong Budget 2020/21 and HSIWill this budget help push the HSI higher ?
Currently, HSi is now at the resistance zone where it was last visited at 18 June 2018. Profit taking is the theme now with many indices like Nasdaq, SPX500, DJIA , etc tumbling down. There is news that interest rates is going to spike but personally, I think that is overblown....
With unemployment remaining high in HK, people forced to stay home, the entrepreneurial spirits of the Hong Kong people will create more online businesses, imo. I believe the freelance markets not only in HK but globally will increase tremendously and change the employment landscape.
Imagine being retrenched at this time and with many companies not hiring, you will be forced to think out of the box to find an income. Food delivery , private hiring, home baking, to name a few will be popular as it relatively easy to start. So long as one is willing to put in the hours, the money is there ! Others can tap on the ecommerce market to sell things online from handicrafts to promoting their services.
I will wait for the pullback to complete before adding more.
Hang Seng.....All of wave ((iv))?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has made a new low at 28957.31 yesterday. It nearly touched the uprising trend line, which connects the highs of waves (i) and the low of waves (iv) and bounced today within a 784.56 points advance to 29880 on a closing price.
The low at 28957 is either all of wave ((iv)) or it is wave (a) of ((iv))!
In the latter case, today's advance is part of wave (b) what can develop into a flat or a variation thereof. Note that the pattern of the correction between waves ((i)) and ((ii)) took the shape of an „expanding flat“. Following the rules of alternation, it could be that a flat or a triangle is under construction!
At the bullish case, it needs to pop above the high at 31183.36 to clear the view and judge that wave ((v)) is underway.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI Bouncing off low?Is this a real or fake bounce? its on the 4h so its still not as strong if it happens on the 1d
HSI could retap the 61.8% fib support and bounce ! HSI could retap the 61.8% fib support and bounce !
HSI on support, hopefully it holds outwe are on support, lets hope it holds out. Take a look at all our charts below
Hang Seng.....Wave iv done!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has made a new high @31084.95 on a closing basis (intraday at 31183.36) and pulled back to 30099.71. It closed the open gap left by trading on February 16. This low could be wave iv of v of (v) of (iii)!
If so, HS will make a new high on both, intraday and closing basis, in the coming days ahead.
The alternate view suggest a more complex structure for the coming week or two.
If HS is on a rally path, a common target for HS could be around the 32069.08 area, where waves (iii) of (v) of Y is a 1.382 Fib.-Extension of wave W-X!
It needs a decline below the area of 28259 to change the bullish view short term.
Note: the blue arrow means the more expected scenario, while the gray means less expected scenario!
Have a great weekend.....
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI update on 20210217HSI gained on the first trading day of the Year of the Ox, overcame the year high of 2019. Heading to 33484, the year high of 2018, would be the only way out. HSI is strong. It broke the long term down trend in the end of 2020, and broke the ascending channel in January 2021 successively. All moving averages are bullish. Keep 100% long.
HSI, gapped up on the first day of trading after CNYGreat gap up. if you have not entered, do consider to enter on pullback
