Waiting for a 15m/5m RSI below 20 to start a long positionWaiting for a 15m/5m RSI below 20 to start a long position
1st TP is 5m/20ema
2nd TP is 15m/16ema
US30 trade ideas
US30 Trade Idea 29 Oct 2024 (Time Frame H1)The chart you've shared shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on a 1-hour time frame. Here's a breakdown of the analysis, based on what I can see:
Observations:
Elliott Wave Count: The chart has Elliott Wave annotations, specifically identifying a correction pattern (labeled a, b, c) followed by a possible impulsive move (labeled i, ii, iii, iv, v).
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn, suggesting potential areas for price reversals. Key levels are marked at 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786.
Projected Path: The white zig-zag line projects a possible upward trend following the completion of the current wave structure, with a target above the 0.5 or 0.618 retracement levels.
Stochastic Oscillator: The oscillator below shows values near the oversold region, which could indicate that a reversal is near.
Potential Trade Idea:
Entry: Wait for a confirmation of the fifth wave completion (v) near the support zone or Fibonacci extension levels (like 1.23 or 1.618). If the price holds and begins to turn upwards, it could signal the start of an upward impulsive move.
Target: Initial targets could be set at the Fibonacci retracement levels, such as 0.382 (42,413), 0.5 (42,393), or 0.618 (42,373). A stronger move could aim toward the higher Fibonacci levels.
Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below the recent low, possibly below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (42,203), to limit downside risk.
This analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal setup after wave completion. Make sure to monitor the price action for confirmation before entering a trade, and adjust risk management based on market conditions.
Happy trading and trade wisely guys..
Us30 shorts loading for New York !!!Reason for Trade
1) There a 1 hour up trend that was broken
2) I see a range on the 1 hour that was broken
US30 possible retracement, but bearish in the long termIf the price retraces to the 42500 to 42600 supply zone, it could present an opportunity for a short entry
Watch for buying interest now around 42200 or deeper around 42000
DOW JONES Bottom is being formed. Buy for 44000 immediate TargetDow Jones (DJI) eventually made a bullish break-out on our last analysis (October 08, see chart below) and hit our 43200 invalidation Target:
The 3-month Channel Up is still holding and the price is now on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. The 4H RSI has completed a bottoming sequence similar to the September 11 Higher Low.
As long as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) supports (closes 1D candles above), this will be a buy opportunity. Our Target is 44000, which is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, similar with the previous Higher High.
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US30 SELL NOW!!!!!!!!US30 since taken out the sell side liquidity price have been ranging downwards to the liquidity area and now again made a strong rejections from the liquidity trendline zone am in on sell holding till new lows is created
JOIN AND ENJOY
TELL US YOUR VIEWS ON THIS...............
US30 IDEA ON SELLSSell confirmations: Intern divergence base of the RSI on 4h TF
also, 15min confirmation with an engulfing candle and price had
hit 61% of Fibonacci.
US30 is in downtrendUS30 is in downtrend on hourly chart price is making higher highs and lower highs, current levels are good for shorting price has taken a correction and know showing bearish signs.
US30 BUY ANALYSIS SUPPORT LEVEL Hello Trader . What do you think about US30 ? Here on US30 price make support around area of 42316.1 zone which is likely to reverse to complete a resistance level before making a change there for trader should go for LONG and target profit around resistance area. Remember to like and share your thought on comment!
Dow: Key data, earnings and US election all coming upStocks rebounded on Monday with oil prices taking a 5% plunge, amid an apparent easing in Middle East tension. The restrained reaction by Israel after recent attacks has spurred optimism, with markets hoping for stability in the region. European indices closed higher as we begin a very busy two weeks, with lots of data, US election and central banks meetings on the way.
Treasury yields could take toll on stocks
With the 10-year rising to a new 3-month month high of 4.29%, this could unravel risk assets. Having just closed lower for the fifth consecutive day, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 2.5%, the Dow could be the one to watch for potential underperformance. Small caps also slumped last week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished flattish, helped by Tesla’s earnings and Nvidia surging to a new record high.
Looking under the hood, financials (XLF) led the drop on Friday with a fall of 1.1% and nearly 2.1% for the week. Industrials (XLI) lost 2.8% on the week, while energy (XLE) lost 0.6% on the week and ensured a hattrick of weekly losses. Technology (XLK) was flat on the week, while semiconductor (SMH) rose 0.6%. Once again gold outperformed with GLD rising 0.8% last week.
With financials and industrials taking the biggest hit, and energy also not doing great, the Dow and Russell are the obvious markets for the bears to potentially target, if sentiment turns sour again.
Economic Data Points to Slower Rate Cuts
Last week’s stronger economic indicators have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach to future rate cuts, but will that change in the week ahead with some top-tier data to come including JOLTS, non-farm payrolls and ISM surveys? Last week’s data releases—such as jobless claims, services PMI, and durable goods orders— all surpassed forecasts, suggesting economic resilience. If we see a similar outcome from most of this week’s data releases, then that could even raise question marks over further rate cuts beyond the two more priced in for this year, as the Fed may be more inclined to wait and see before easing policy further.
While a strong economy supports corporate earnings, it can also sustain higher yields, which may weigh on stock valuations. As a result, traders and investors are closely watching incoming data to gauge whether the Fed will indeed adopt a more gradual approach to rate reductions.
US Election Uncertainty Adds Pressure
The US presidential election is also in focus, with polls and odds markets showing a close race. Some betting markets are leaning toward a Trump victory, while other polls show a tie. A Trump win could have inflationary implications, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate policy. Given Trump’s policies, investors may anticipate a more aggressive Fed response to manage potential inflation, which could affect stock prices and increase market volatility.
The uncertain outcome has led investors to adopt a cautious stance, with many waiting to see how the election results may influence the Fed's future policy decisions and overall market sentiment. This has been evident in markets falling last week, VIX rising and gold hitting new record highs.
Upcoming Earnings and Economic Reports
As we head into a pivotal week and a half, several high-impact events could shape market direction. Investors are bracing for a series of earnings reports from major companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" stocks, alongside the US monthly jobs report. These, combined with the US election on November 5, represent a series of risk events that could sway investor sentiment.
Given the recent increase in yields, strong economic data, and the close election race, it is unlikely we’ll see investors rush to buy the dips. For now, a cautious approach may be warranted as investors navigate these uncertainties and await clearer signals for the market’s direction.
Week ahead: Jolts, BoJ, NFP and lots of earnings
There are at least a couple of major macro factors that could impact the Dow this week, while on a micro level, several tech names are reporting their results.
1) JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday)
With the Fed’s focus turning to employment, we will give preference to any labour market indicators over other data releases in the next couple of months. Though this data release is not very up to date (with this one covering August), it can still impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment, and they usually take a few months to be filled. Last time we saw a surprisingly strong print of 8.04 million, aiding the dollar’s rally.
2) US nonfarm payrolls (Friday)
Last month’s surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls data helped to fuel a big rally in the dollar as the market was forced to drop its calls for further outsized rate cuts from the Fed. Let’s see if those numbers will be revised and whether the strength in the labour market continued for another month. Any further strength in employment data could even call into question the now lower expectations of 50 basis points worth of more rate cuts in the next two FOMC meetings in 2024. This will undoubtedly move the Dow and other US indices too.
Dow key levels to watch
The technical Dow forecast has turned a tad bearish following last week’s drop. The last weekly drop of a similar magnitude took place in early September. That time, though, there was no immediate election risk, and so the index quickly bounced back and went on to hit new records in the pursuing weeks. This time, it could be different. Still, we will need to see a lower low to confirm the bearish reversal beneath the last short-term low at 41,800.
If seen, we could see a sizeable drop with the next obvious support not seen until around 40,900 to 41,000 area. The longer-term trend line and 200-day average converge around the psychologically important area of 40,000.
Standing in the way of these potential support levels is another one close to where the market finished on Friday and where it has staged a bounced from today, around 42,000.
In terms of resistance levels to watch, the most important one in my view lies at 42,400 to 42,500. This area is now pivotal insofar as the short-term technical outlook is concerned.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
US30 - Dow Jones IndustrialThe week’s key economic updates kick off tomorrow with the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is anticipated to provide new insights into labor market dynamics.
In its previous report, JOLTS indicated a 4.3% increase in job openings, bringing the total to 8.04 million. However, hiring, layoffs, and resignations all saw a decline, aligning with the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
For the upcoming September report, analysts predict job openings will decrease by 0.6%, reaching 7.99 million.
Additionally, the Conference Board will release its October Consumer Confidence report. Of particular interest will be the job confidence component, as it could offer a complementary perspective to JOLTS findings.
The day will also see the release of the Case-Shiller report, the first of several upcoming housing market indicators. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the 20-city composite index for August is expected to show a moderation in home price growth, down to 5.0% year-over-year from the previous 5.9%.
Bearish Market BIASThe market broke out of a strong resistance and is looking highly likely to go retest that zone before a further continuation to the down side .
Ready for a lower low?As we can see a regain of strength of the bears, pre market we have seen heavily consolidation.
With multiple confirmations, the time is 8:50 and we shall update once the market opens
US30 Holds Bearish Bias Below Key Resistance LevelsUS30 Technical Analysis
As long as trades under 42450 will support a bearish trend to touch 42125and below that will get 41950 as well
Stability above 42,125 may prompt a move toward 42,300 and 42,450; however, a bullish reversal requires a breakout above 42,590.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42280
Resistance Levels: 42770, 42910, 43050
Support Levels: 42125, 41950, 41750
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish by stability below 42450
- Bullish by stability above 42590
previous idea:
DreamAnalysis | Dow Jones Analysis Key Levels to Watch!✨ Today’s Focus: Dow Jones (US30) – A Key Market Mover
Today, we’re diving into the latest Dow Jones price action, pinpointing critical levels to identify potential trends and strategic trade opportunities.
📊 Market Snapshot:
The price is currently oscillating within the previous week’s range. After capturing some crucial buy-side liquidity, such as the Previous Month’s High (PMH), there’s been a strong shift to the sell side.
🔴 Short- vs. Long-Term Outlook:
We’ll break down scenarios for both bullish and bearish setups, providing insights for day traders on how to approach short-term and long-term trends.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, a potential retracement higher could take out some Buy-Side Liquidity or hit the midpoint (50%) of the range. Following this, the price may continue downward toward sell-side targets, with the Weekly Imbalance as a significant level to watch.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
Our long-term perspective remains bearish until the price reaches the Weekly Imbalance at the 50% range mark. From there, we’ll need to observe how the market reacts to assess if further declines are likely.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
These levels are likely to shape price movement:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
- Weekly FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance Zone)
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are crucial zones for potential retracement, setting up the next directional move.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish setup, monitor lower timeframes (LTF) for a sweep of Low-Resistance Sell-Side Liquidity. Look for entry models targeting higher levels, including a move toward the All-Time High (ATH).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
For bearish opportunities, use lower timeframes like the 15-minute chart. Seek short entry signals within the 4-Hour Imbalance, or wait for a breakdown of Low-Resistance Buy-Side Liquidity for added confirmation.
📝 Final Thoughts:
Stay flexible as market dynamics shift. Monitor these key levels and setups to fine-tune your strategy and capitalize on high-probability trades.
🔮 Coming Up:
We’re also tracking NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets, with timely insights as trends evolve.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Uptrend According to the behavior of the index in the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. As long as the index is above the support range, the continuation of the upward trend is more likely. Otherwise, the downward trend to the support levels will be possible
US30 H4 - Long Signal US30 H4
Something like this would make sense for us on Dow Jones, we gapped up massively to start the week and we are still looking to continue higher, once the dust has settled, we can see where we are on US30 and which zones are in play. Hopefully we can gain something buy catching longs from this 42,300 price when it trades higher and retests again as support price.
We saw a big selloff Friday, dumping as much as 600 points in a single 4 hour period, seeing that move correct and sustaining would be a requirement for what we are after. The market gaps were no doubt significant, being in excess of 100 points.
Bullish pullback The indice might retest the established highs, after bouncing back up from the support structure. However, the indice may continue it's downward trajectory if it fails to continue upwards and also by stabilising below 41,886.
US30 BEARISHUS30 continuous its beaeish trend in h1
printing HH & HL
NO sign for reversal
good to sell
US30 (Dow Jones industrial average) Daily At this current stage of retracement, we saw price slipping lower towards low of month/ higher high that broke structure to the upside📈. Look carefully, we have a few key factors that will influence our market as this is nfp week as well. For all we know, price remains bullish overal on weekly and daily TF📈. We have 📉bearish internal structure which could be aligned with a weekly setup before nfp.
Look at our blue/green Fibonacci retracement tool:
- price has formed swing high & swing low
- Price is at discount zone asour market is worth FWB:42K at current market price and is expensive to buy more assets to fuel a bigger trend.
- we have a POINT of interest around price GETTEX:41K
This exact zone is at a weekly demand zone that has an inducement LTF zone (current demand price is reacting to). It is also an unmitigated demand zone on daily timeframe.
This is no trading signal but you can find a good entry on 4H timeframe respecting our bearish internal structure
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US30 (Dow Jones industrial average) Daily At this current stage of retracement, we saw price slipping lower towards low of month/ higher high that broke structure to the upside📈. Look carefully, we have a few key factors that will influence our market as this is nfp week as well. For all we know, price remains bullish overal on weekly and daily TF📈. We have 📉bearish internal structure which could be aligned with a weekly setup before nfp.
Look at our blue/green Fibonacci retracement tool:
- price has formed swing high & swing low
- Price is at discount zone asour market is worth FWB:42K at current market price and is expensive to buy more assets to fuel a bigger trend.
- we have a POINT of interest around price GETTEX:41K
This exact zone is at a weekly demand zone that has an inducement LTF zone (current demand price is reacting to). It is also an unmitigated demand zone on daily timeframe.
This is no trading signal but you can find a good entry on 4H timeframe respecting our bearish internal structure
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Could US30 drop from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 42,413.14
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 42,768.22
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 41,939.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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