Brent, dailyTA normally considers a trend to be active until there’s evidence that it has ended, so further losses seem to be possible for oil in the medium term. However, the price recently made a higher low and doesn’t show any sign of buying or selling saturation. The main dynamic resistance in the short term which might cap gains is the 50 SMA around $80, also a psychological area. A logical first target to the downside in the medium term would be around $72.50. Movement at the end of the week is likely to depend on the dollar’s reaction to the job report.
BRENT trade ideas
Crude oil - $200 per barrelWe've all seen how oil reacted to the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I am sure that this conflict will not settle down quickly and will only increase. The conflict will involve other players in the region - Emen is proof of this fact.
How will oil react to this?
The suspension of supplies and other problems with oil supplies will provoke demand for oil and the price will go higher and in the next few years will renew historical highs up to $200 per barrel. I think this was calculated by the coalition of aggressor countries before the war started.
about TA
We see a strong horizontal level where there is a lot of liquidity (concentration of stop losses) which will be collected up to the level of the largest horizontal volumes from below. And only after that, we will see a global reversal, which is probably the end of the year - December
On the chart, I have shown levels from which I will try to take longs.
I hope there will be PEACE in the world.
Our world looks very humongous in terms of cosmic civilization sending tons of bombs to kill each other.
Best regards EXCAVO
Brent (ICE) may fall to 74.70 - 75.10Pivot
76.90
Our preference
Short positions below 76.90 with targets at 75.10 & 74.70 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 76.90 look for further upside with 77.60 & 78.20 as targets.
Comment
As long as 76.90 is resistance, likely decline to 75.10.
Supports and resistances
78.20
77.60
76.90
75.81 Last
75.10
74.70
74.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Leading Diagonal, Now Three Waves Corrective??Hello there,
I hope you're having a great start to the new year. I wish you all the best in your trading ventures and a happy new year with your loved ones.
I'm a fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find interesting and useful for market analysis. I've developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
Although I'm going to share my analysis with you, please note that I won't be providing a buy or sell signal. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To give you confidence in my analysis, I'll always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you the best.
I'm waiting to hear from you. Finally, I'd like to remind you that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
Brent Oil - 4HIn the four-hour time frame, due to the slowing down of the upward movement momentum of the price and the decrease in the strength of the buying pressure, if the range of 79.0 units is broken downwards and the price leaves the upward trend, there is a possibility of the price falling to the range of 77.7 and in the case of the strength of the range of 76.0 units.
Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 82.5 units.
Bullish on OILRecent trend in the oil price has turned bullish and I'm looking for a continuation of that bullish momentum. Looking for price to test 61.8% fib level and previous demand zone. Will look for consolidation and signs the short term bearish move has come to an end to enter a long position.
Brent Oil Price Reaches New December HighFinancial markets are experiencing a traditional decline in trading activity associated with the holiday period. Notable events:
→ the S&P-500 and NASDAQ-100 stock indices updated their maximum for the year after the holiday Monday, thereby confirming the idea that the decline on Wednesday, September 20, was in the nature of a correction. Santa and his rally do not disappoint.
→ The dollar index drops to six-month lows due to expectations of an interest rate cut in March 2024.
→ The price of oil reached a new high in December.
The rise in oil prices is caused by geopolitical tensions:
→ WSJ: Iran-backed militias fire at US bases in the Middle East.
→ Bloomberg: Continued Houthi attacks on shipping and US strikes on targets in Iraq raise the risk of the war expanding in the Middle East.
→ Reuters: The war in Gaza will last several months. Concerns about the spread of the conflict are growing.
→ Barron's: Dispute between Venezuela and Guyana could threaten oil production and higher prices.
If military action disrupts the production and supply of oil, this could sharply increase its price.
The XBR/USD chart shows that:
→ the price is still in a downtrend (as shown by the red channel);
→ moving within the ascending channel (shown in blue) in December, the price has reached the upper limit of the red channel, and is now in a vulnerable position.
On the one hand, bears may try to resume the downward trend. On the other hand, if demand forces truly dominate the market, then only a minor pullback from the upper boundary of the red channel can be expected. Note the 77.50 level, which acted as resistance but changed its role after the breakout. Around this level there is a value of 50% of the price increase from the December low. So as long as the price is above 77.50, it is acceptable to assume that the chances of an attempt at a bullish breakout of the red channel will remain high.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BCOUSD#Brent crude oil - H1
📣 Based on the chart structure in the 1-hour timeframe, with the breakout of the resistance-turned-support level zone around 76.93, it is possible to initiate a sell position with a target of 73.80.
⛔ Stop Loss: 79.40
On the other hand, with the break of the range at 79.40, a price growth towards the range of 82.20 can be anticipated.
⛔ Stop Loss: 76.93
Brent (ICE) may rise to 81.70 - 82.50Pivot
80.10
Our preference
Long positions above 80.10 with targets at 81.70 & 82.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 80.10 look for further downside with 79.60 & 78.80 as targets.
Comment
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.
Supports and resistances
83.20
82.50
81.70
80.97 Last
80.10
79.60
78.80
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Frist Wave Diagonal?? Three Waves Corrective!!Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely
Brent (ICE) may rise to 80.60 - 81.40Pivot
79.30
Our preference
Long positions above 79.30 with targets at 80.60 & 81.40 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 79.30 look for further downside with 78.65 & 78.10 as targets.
Comment
The RSI shows upside momentum.
Supports and resistances
82.20
81.40
80.60
80.25 Last
79.30
78.65
78.10
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction - W/C 11 Dec 2023Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $73.46 (Min) and $81.51 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$78.10 - $81.60 High Volume Node & Resistance line - potential resistance
$76.00 Resistance Line - potential resistance
$73.46 Support Line - potential support
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is still below the 0.5 level with a resistance line and a HVN just below the breaking point of the 0.5 level. This will be a strong resistance level.
Volume Profile Analysis:
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential resistance region. The price has stalled in this area over the last few weeks.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Stoch RSI (Bottom Indicator): The indicator crossed over last week at the overbought level and hence the price decreased. But now it is in the oversold level and this could be a good sign.
MACD (Top Indicator): This indicator has maintained just below the negative region and has refused to move out over the last few weeks. I don't see it going anywhere this week. I believe it will stay for the next few weeks in the same range and may just provide a bullish signal for the short term.
Additional Factors
Prior Resistance ( Top Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior resistance level.
The blue line that is diagonal across the price is a potential resistance line.
Prior Support (Bottom Blue Line):
There are two support lines just near the current price. Last week the price went near this support zone and found support and didn’t fall through. Both these two blue lines are prior support levels. The bottom support line is extended from the black box you can see on the chart from a prior chart pattern. These will be crucial levels of support and levels to watch if the price breaks though.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
Based on the projected price range and the various technical indicators and analyses, the outlook for Brent Crude Oil appears to be finely balanced. The delineated price levels, including resistance at $78.10-$81.60 and support at $73.46, suggest a narrow range of potential movement.
Technical analyses, such as Fibonacci retracement breakout and volume profile analysis, highlight the significance of specific levels, indicating potential resistance and support zones. The MACD and Stochastic RSI indicators imply a nuanced market sentiment, with the Stoch RSI currently in the oversold region and the MACD signalling a potential short-term bullish trend.
The presence of prior resistance and support lines further emphasises the importance of these levels in the market dynamics, while geopolitical events remain a crucial factor that could significantly impact oil prices in the coming week.
Brent (ICE) may rise to 80.20 - 81.30Pivot
78.20
Our preference
Long positions above 78.20 with targets at 80.20 & 81.30 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 78.20 look for further downside with 77.60 & 77.10 as targets.
Comment
The next resistances are at 80.20 and then at 81.30.
Supports and resistances
82.40
81.30
80.20
79.29 Last
78.20
77.60
77.10
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Brent to continue in the upward move?Brent - 24 expiry
The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net gains yesterday.
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 73.72-81.78.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Previous resistance, now becomes support at 77.40.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
We look to Buy at 77.40 (stop at 76.40)
Our profit targets will be 79.90 and 81.78
Resistance: 79.90 / 81.78 / 84.57
Support: 77.40 / 76.61 / 73.72
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Oil could rally hardOil is forming a bullish falling wedge pattern. If a breakout occurs, it will trigger a major bull run toward the big red or 200-day MA and beyond.
Oil found support in the summer area of support and bounced nicely. Now, it is trying to break the pattern and continue to rise.
MACD has already shown a line cross, indicating bullish momentum, while RSI is also moving up.
Technical analyses indicate that if a breakout occurs, the move will be massive.
Macroanalyses show there is a huge chance for that. The Fed lowering rates, the dollar dropping like a stone, and the closure of the Red Sea could trigger a massive move in oil.
Therefore, a buy trigger will almost certainly occur within days or even today.