Brent (ICE) (F4) Intraday May fall -3.20 %Pivot: 78.70
Our preference:
short positions below 78.70 with targets at 76.60 & 75.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
above 78.70 look for further upside with 79.40 & 80.20 as targets.
Comment:
as long as the resistance at 78.70 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 76.60 remains high.
BRENT trade ideas
BCOUSD#Brent Crude Oil - H1
📣 Considering the chart structure on the 1-hour timeframe, with the breaches of the internal downtrend line in the range of 81.91, there is an expectation of price growth towards the range of 84.00.
⛔ Stop Loss: 80.50
On the other hand, with the breakdown below the 80.50 range, one may consider selling with a target of 78.50.
⛔ Stop Loss: 81.91
Oil Reverse Inverse Cup &HandleOil Reverse Inverse Cup &Handle
1.Price Formation: The price has broken out from a Reverse Inverted Cup & Handle price formation on a daily chart.
2.Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA, which is a further confirmation of bearish sentiment.
3.200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
4.Thus, Mas 7<21<200
5.Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is < than 50, indicating bearish momentum and potential further downward movement.
6.Price Target: 70
Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news:
→ Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas;
→ the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict.
Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August.
Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover:
→ on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance;
→ during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November.
If sellers strengthen their control, it is possible that the price of Brent oil may reach the lower line of the channel and thereby get closer to the forecasts of Citi analysts. In their opinion:
→ the forecast Brent price is USD 73 by the second quarter of 2024;
→ the forecast Brent price at the end of 2024 is at USD 68 per barrel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UKOIL potential downtrendThere is a possibility that the UKOIL, a trading instrument representing the price of crude oil in the United Kingdom, might experience a downward trend. The recommended take-profit (TP) level is at 77.2, while the suggested stop-loss (SL) level stands at 84.25. However, it's crucial to emphasize that engaging in any financial trading activity carries inherent risks. The TP and SL levels provided are merely speculative and based on an analytical idea or forecast.
The volatility and unpredictability of the commodities market, especially concerning oil prices, are influenced by multifaceted factors such as geopolitical tensions, global demand-supply dynamics, economic indicators, geopolitical events, and unforeseen natural disasters, among others. This inherently complex and dynamic nature of the market renders any predictions subject to change or deviation.
Investors and traders should conduct thorough research, employ risk management strategies, and exercise caution when making financial decisions. It's advisable to consider various sources of information, consult with financial advisors or experts, and assess one's risk tolerance and financial objectives before executing any trade based on speculative forecasts or trading ideas.
Moreover, the terms TP and SL denote the take-profit and stop-loss levels, respectively, indicating the targeted price at which a trader aims to close a position to secure profits or limit potential losses. These levels serve as guiding markers, aiding traders in managing their risk exposure and ensuring disciplined trading practices. Nevertheless, it's essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to market fluctuations and unexpected developments that might impact the price movements of UKOIL.
In conclusion, the forecast suggesting a potential downward movement in UKOIL with specified TP and SL levels should be regarded as a trading idea rather than a definitive prediction. Engaging in financial markets demands informed decision-making, risk awareness, and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics driving commodity prices. Traders are encouraged to exercise prudence, stay updated with market trends, and use analytical tools while acknowledging the inherent uncertainties associated with trading.
Oil Brent - H4Oil Brent
W1 - The formation of a 3-wave structure continues
D1 - The price has reached 161 lvl. 3rd wave, which may mean further movement down to level 200 - 261
H4 - The price is in the correctional 4th wave, you can see the formation of an ascending channel. If the lower trend line is broken or fixed behind it, further sales to the levels of 75.4 can be considered
You can also consider entering from the formation of a double top and further movement to the lower boundary and beyond.
What to expect now?
Expectation of breaking through the level of 82.20 and fixing the lower border from the level of 81.15.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 83.60; if this scenario does not materialize and the price may return to the local range, wait for the lower border of the channel to be broken.
Short
Targets 80.00 - 79.16 - 78.43 - 76.87 - 75.41
Brent oil prices bounced back Brent oil prices bounced back from the multi-month low touched on Wednesday, hedging just over the $80 per barrel level in early morning trading. Crude prices suffered this week, dropping more than 5% on future demand concerns, as well as lowered perceived supply risks from the Israel and Gaza situation. Inflation data from China, the world’s top oil importer, revealed a disinflationary trend that could be the precursor to a slowdown in economic activity that may lead to reduced energy consumption. At the same time, US crude inventories are growing, reaching the highest level since February. Completing the bearish scenario for crude is the growing sentiment amongst traders that the conflict in Gaza is unlikely to escalate and disrupt the global oil supply.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
UKOil Brent Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this video, we embark on a comprehensive analysis of UKOil, with a specific focus on the prevalent bearish sentiment observed in the 1-month (1M) and 1-week (1W) timeframes. Notably, our charts reveal that Brent has approached a critical support level, a pivotal juncture. Throughout this presentation, we delve into the fundamental tenets of technical analysis, encompassing essential components such as evaluating the current market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other indispensable aspects of technical analysis. As we progress through the video, we meticulously scrutinize a potential trading opportunity in Brent Oil.
It is imperative to stress that the insights shared in this content are exclusively intended for educational purposes and should not be misconstrued as financial advice. Participating in the foreign exchange market trading carries a significant level of risk. Therefore, it is vital to prudently incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to navigate these challenges effectively.
Brent Crude : Currently undergoing a complex WXY correctionBrent Crude is currently on a bearish trend and may be approaching a demand zone with prices falling within the range of 83.5 - 84.5. It's possible that a price rebound could occur in this range, targeting levels between 87.5 and 89. However, it's worth noting that resistance may emerge at these levels, potentially leading to a subsequent downward price movement.
Currently, the market seems to be in the initial phase marked as "leg a" of Y of a corrective pattern denoted as W-X-Y. This correction could potentially find its conclusion in the price range of 78-80. Interestingly, this range closely aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from the low point of 71.47 on May 31, 2023, to the high point of 95.91 reached on September 19, 2023.
Oil Brent - W1Oil Brent
W1 - The price has formed a 3-wave structure, which may indicate a trend reversal, and if this scenario is implemented, it will be possible to potentially see the price at the level of 66.30. Judging by geopolitical data, due to the rise in oil prices and the growth of the asset, there was a local movement. To confidently enter sales, it is better to wait for the level of breaking through the 1st wave of 83.30 to be fixed.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the breakout and fixation at the level of 83.30. When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 88.13, if this scenario does not materialize and the price may return locally to the range of 85 - 95
Complete cancellation of the script mark 93.83
Short
Targets 81.18 - 76.73 - 72.80 - 66.30
Brent $70-80 rangeI see Brent heading to the $70-80 range in November and December. I believe this will be driven by economic worries. I believe either the Ukraine and Gaza wars will de-escalate. I see cost of living like mortgages putting downward price pressure on house prices which will drag the stock market down. I also see Gold being priced too high because the norm is 15 and it is currently 22. I see Iran ramping up oil production to supply china and i see US shale oil ramping up to fill the SPR