JP225 trade ideas
Earthquake hit Japan, First Short Nikkei, then buyOn January 1, 2024, Japan experienced a significant seismic event, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The aftermath is still being assessed. Examining past earthquakes reveals a pattern: after the 1995 Hanshin Earthquake, the Nikkei dropped by 19.75%, and following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake with a magnitude of 9, the Nikkei declined by 18.49%. If history repeats, with an 18% drop this time, the Nikkei 225 may test the 0.382 support at 27,230. Market developments will unfold upon opening. In both the 1995 and 2011 earthquakes, the Bank of Japan implemented loose monetary policies. However, as the JPY is a safe haven, USDJPY depreciated in both instances, falling by 20% in 1995 and 8.13% in 2011.
NIKKEI is starting a new rally.Last time we looked at Nikkei (NI225) for the long-term (May 26 2022), it gave us the most optimal buy entry we could expect (see chart below), as it bounced on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 almost hit 34000:
The index has since seen a 4 month correction (from July to October) to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a rebound. This rebound is technically the introduction to the new multi-month rally towards the top of the Channel Up. This is consistent with the pre COVID crash consolidation and before that with the first three quarters of 2017.
Both sequences completed rallies of approximately +63%, the first to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the second above the 2.0 Fib level. As a result if we take a modest approach to the upcoming rally, we expect to see at least 36700, which is the 2.0 Fib ext. and is our long-term target. A new +63% rise from the bottom though, gives as a 40300 price tag.
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JPN225 may go lower after hitting top channelNikkei have change to go lower as it hits the top of channel in the 4 hour timeframe.
Overbought in RSI with chance to close gap form 2nd Aug.
Setting a good sell limit at 33150 zone, with the 2nd previous high as SL. TP will be at the bottom of the channel giving a 1:3 RR.
Nikkei 225 Trade Idea for 20thDec2023 Super BullishNIKKEI 225 trade idea for 20/12/2023.
Major catalyst BOJ is out of the way now, Nikkei shows super bullish continuation from the monster move today. Text book bull flag break out just after the close to 500 points move after BoJ press conference. Price consolidated after that and shows another bull flag in the after hours trading.
Plan for 20/12/2023
Entry: Ideally pull back at the open at bull flag base -33353 or at 33227 - yesterday's VWAP
Targets: 33632, 33681, 33808 and 34030
Support: 33227,33096
Happy trading, feedback welcome to improve my analysis. Thanks for reading
Looking to short the marketBy short the market, I mean to short the S&P500 and the Nikkei (JPN225).
Reasons for shorting these markets is alignment and the extreme overbought state it is in at the moment. This is not a bear market prediction, simply using the end of the December bull seasonality factor with alignment of the markets.
SP500 Short confluences:
All time high
Duplicate Trendline 2nd touch
Round number 4800
Nikkei Confluences:
All time high
Round number 34000
Using breach of first high to take the last high at the round number. I am also choosing this high as the HL formed makes the first high less likely to work therefore, because I want higher probability, I will take the high above.
Catch you later traders ▲
Expanded diagonal?? The fifth wave will expandHello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely
Expanded Diagonal??Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
Nikkei Intraday trading IdeaJapan225-Nikkei had a superb bull run yesterday.
Due to US Indices choppy weak trendy today, it has followed and retraced nearly 50% of the move which is healthy.
Major GDP data 10 mins before open will determine the next move.
Expect a rug pull to yesterday's open-launch base to 32937-32905 or a wick down to 32837-Tuesday's VWAP to flush down the weak hands.
Overall its a bull market trend and any major drop is strong buy with targets at 33314,33400,3346733585.
Feedback is welcome. Thank you for reading.
NIKKEI Analysis: Japanese Stock Market OutlookIn the first half of 2023, the Japanese stock market was dominated by bullish sentiment due to (still) negative interest rates — while the rest of the G7 countries raised their rates to combat inflation.
The NIKKEI-225 index grew by 30% in the first half of the year. But then the balance of supply and demand was achieved, judging by the daily chart, where a range was formed (shown in blue), framing the index’s fluctuations in the second half of the year. Judging by the change in the slope of the bullish trend lines, demand was sufficient to maintain the price at the lower limit of the range, but not enough to go beyond the upper limit.
The situation is fundamentally reversed. While interest rates in the US, Europe and elsewhere are thought to be near the top, there is growing talk in Japan that the central bank will begin raising them after years of being stuck in negative territory:
→ Bloomberg: The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held on December 19 – speculation is growing that the Bank will move away from negative interest rates as early as this month.
→ Reuters: 22 of 26 economists (85%) surveyed in November believe the Bank of Japan will abandon its negative interest rate policy by the end of next year.
The winding down of ultra-loose monetary policy could have a negative impact on the growth of Japanese companies - accordingly, the growing bearish sentiment is reflected in the index quote. Since the end of November, the NIKKEI 225 has dropped almost 5%.
The chart shows that the November top:
→ did not exceed the annual maximum set in June;
→ only slightly exceeded the September high – in fact, a false breakout;
→ the price forms a rounding (shown by an arrow) - a sign of gradual depletion of demand, which is replaced by the dominance of supply.
It is possible that the bears, which are gaining power, will be able to form a breakdown of the median line of the blue channel as early as December.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
JPN225, Short setup, Head and Shoulder🚩 New Signal Notification
📣 Attention Traders! 📈🔍
🔹 JPN225, 8H, head and shoulder Short setup🔹
JPN225 broke out the neck line of head and shoulder yesterday. It is now further going to next support levels as shown in chart, 32505 and 32146.
By Head and Shoulder target measurement, possible reach 32430 too.
Resistance at 33103 the neck line.
Good luck!
Nikkei to find buyers at previous swing low?NIK225 - 24h expiry
We are trading at oversold extremes.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Previous support located at 33100.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 33165 level.
We look to Buy at 33165 (stop at 32965)
Our profit targets will be 33665 and 33765
Resistance: 33650 / 34565 / 35045
Support: 32925 / 32360 / 31960
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