Gold short Short from 3425$ region.
Gold has to retrace before it keeps going higher.
Let us first wait for 3400 region.
XAUUSD trade ideas
GOLD FOMC Interest Rate Decision (May 7, 2025)
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining its stance since December 2024. The decision reflects heightened uncertainty from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals, including stagflation risks (rising unemployment and inflation). Chair Jerome Powell emphasized vigilance toward trade policy impacts but avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, despite market expectations for easing later in 2025.
Geopolitical Conflicts Affecting Gold Prices
U.S.-China Trade War Escalation
New tariffs and retaliatory measures have intensified safe-haven demand for gold. Prices hit record highs in April 2025 (NT$3,518/gram in Taiwan) as investors sought protection from market volatility.
Renewed trade talks (e.g., U.S.-China meetings in Switzerland) caused a brief 1.3% gold price dip on optimism, but analysts project prices to rebound to $3,500–$4,000/oz by late 2025 amid unresolved tensions.
Central Bank Gold Accumulation
Central banks, led by China and Russia, are aggressively stockpiling gold to diversify from USD assets and hedge against sanctions.
Prolonged military tensions continue to drive gold’s role as a crisis hedge. Escalation could push prices higher, while de-escalation might temporarily reduce demand.
Middle East Instability
Conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia disrupt global supply chains and energy markets, amplifying gold’s appeal as a safe haven during periods of heightened risk.
Dollar Weakness and Inflation Risks
A declining U.S. Dollar Index (-0.3% on May 7) and tariff-driven inflation fears have bolstered gold’s attractiveness. The Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts reinforces gold’s appeal in a negative real yield environment.
Gold Price Outlook
Short-term: Prices may face volatility from trade talk progress or Fed policy shifts but remain supported by geopolitical risks and central bank buying.
Long-term: Analysts (e.g., UBS, Bank of America) forecast gold reaching $3,500–$4,000/oz in 2025 due to structural demand, tariff impacts, and unresolved global conflicts.
In summary, gold’s trajectory hinges on geopolitical stability, central bank actions, and Fed policy, with bullish momentum likely to persist amid fragmented global trade and economic uncertainty.
Analysis of gold for next weekThis week, the price range of gold was $200. It finally closed as a positive candlestick with an upper shadow, and the length of the shadow was comparable to that of the real body. This indicates that the bulls and bears were evenly matched. Overall, it showed a pattern of wide-range oscillation. In the short term, it maintained an oscillation at a high level, adopting a corrective method of exchanging time for space, which is favorable for the bulls. The fundamental factors supporting the bulls have not changed at present, so it can't be said that there is a trend reversal. Since it has risen a lot, it just needs a new round of accumulation of upward momentum, and there will be an oscillating process. This is in terms of the long-term cycle. There will be news over the weekend, which is bound to impact the market next week. The price of gold will temporarily continue to fluctuate violently, and it is expected that this will be the norm throughout May. As time goes by, the 10-week moving average (MA10) will gradually move upward, and this position should be closely watched in the later stage. In the past, the biggest pullbacks all relied on this support to move upward, and whenever there is a significant downward adjustment, it is an opportunity to go long.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
GOLD The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has resumed buying and strengthened recently due to several key factors:
Widening Interest Rate Differential and Economic Outperformance
The U.S. economy is growing faster than many other major economies, projected at around 2.7% in 2025, while Europe and Japan face weaker growth and deeper rate cuts by their central banks.
This growth divergence has widened the gap between U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and those of key trading partners to the highest level since 1994, making the dollar more attractive to investors seeking yield.
Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Due to Tariff-Driven Inflation
U.S. tariffs, especially on Chinese goods, are expected to keep inflation elevated, delaying the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle. Higher U.S. interest rates relative to other countries support dollar strength.
The Fed’s cautious stance after the May 7 meeting, holding rates steady and signaling a wait-and-see approach, reinforces the dollar’s yield advantage.
Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and tariff uncertainties drive investors toward the dollar as a safe haven during periods of global uncertainty.
Positive Carry Trades and Positioning
The dollar benefits from carry trades where investors borrow in lower-yielding currencies (yen, euro) to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. Long-dollar positioning is not yet saturated, leaving room for further gains.
Technical Support and Market Sentiment
The DXY has found strong technical support near key levels with bullish price action and momentum building, suggesting continued upside potential in the near term.
Summary Table
Widened interest rate differential Higher U.S. yields draw investors
Tariff-driven inflation delays Fed cuts Sustains dollar yield advantage
Safe-haven demand amid uncertainty Boosts dollar as global risk-off asset
Positive carry trades Encourages long-dollar positioning
Technical support near key levels Reinforces bullish momentum
In essence:
The DXY’s resumed buying reflects a combination of strong U.S. economic fundamentals, delayed Fed easing due to tariff inflation, safe-haven flows amid geopolitical risks, and technical factors supporting the dollar’s near-term rally. This momentum is expected to continue into mid-2025 unless global growth stabilizes or the Fed signals more aggressive easing.
Gold is entering into bearish zoneGold is entering into Bearish Zone after dropping from 3409 level. Bearish zone is below 3366 and it is
expected to go at level of 3297 and below.
Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call.
Gold UpdateKey Entry : 3369 - 3366
TP 1 : 3406
TP 2 : 3430
TP 3 : 3442. TP 3 is difficult before correction.
There is too much news supporting the increase in gold prices.🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices extended their rebound for a second straight day on Tuesday, driven by seemingly unstoppable buying interest amid growing pessimism surrounding the U.S. dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
➡️ Despite renewed optimism that the United States may reach trade agreements with some partners this week, President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies continue to create market uncertainty, supporting gold's recovery after previous losses.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Trade and geopolitical headlines dominate, and speculation of interest rate cuts ahead of the Fed meeting and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. There is too much news to support gold's bullish momentum at this time.
➡️Analysis based on important support and resistance levels and Fibonacci combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3221- 3223
❌SL: 3217 | ✅TP: 3227 - 3332 – 3337
👉Sell Gold 3402 - 3404 (Scalping)
❌SL: 3408 | ✅TP: 3298 - 3294 – 3290
👉Sell Gold 3417- 3420
❌SL: 3424 | ✅TP: 3414 - 3410 – 3405
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Up again for goldHi traders,
Last week gold immediately went up and made a correction down.
On Friday price rejected from the 4H BPR so next week we could see more upside.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower trimeframe to trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Gold next is 3125 and 3070Gold is ready for a great retest lower.
Soon we will see gold trading below 3100 region.
Let us wait.
XAUUSD1. The Fed's interest rate decision dominates this week's market
(May 7) The Fed will announce the May FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. The market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but Powell's speech will be the key. The April non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected (an increase of 177,000 people), coupled with the Fed's concerns about inflation, Powell may continue his hawkish stance and emphasize "anti-inflation priority". If he releases a signal of "delayed interest rate cuts", it may suppress gold bullish sentiment; on the contrary, if it implies concerns about economic slowdown, gold may be supported. In addition, several Fed officials will go to Iceland to participate in an economic meeting on Friday, and we need to pay attention to their statements on monetary policy.
2. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
Sino-US trade frictions continue to escalate, with the US imposing tariffs on China as high as 245% and hitting China's re-export trade. However, the US has recently released a signal of easing, with companies such as Walmart resuming orders from China and bearing tariff costs, showing that US companies have limited tolerance for high tariffs. China requires the US to cancel unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. In addition, the situation between India and Pakistan is tense again, and the rising geopolitical risks may boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
3. Market sentiment and capital flows
Domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 23.47 tons in the first quarter, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about gold in the long term. However, Nomura Securities warned that gold may face a technical correction due to abnormal capital flows (GLD funds in and out) and overheated technical indicators (gold prices deviated from the 200-day moving average by 25%). In addition, COMEX gold speculative net long positions hit a 14-month low, and market sentiment was cautious.
Is the rise in gold a rebound or a restart of the upward trend?News Interpretation: US President Trump announced on Sunday that he plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced overseas, marking the first time that his restrictive trade policy on US imports has been extended to the entertainment industry. This has once again ignited investors' concerns about the potential consequences of a global trade war. On Monday, local time, Trump signed an order on biomedical research, hoping to take the opportunity to promote the US pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Trump also announced that tariff measures on pharmaceutical products will be announced in the next two weeks. Gold is often seen as a safe haven tool in uncertainty and performs well in a low interest rate environment. Gold prices have soared 26.3% so far this year and have set new historical highs many times.
Gold trend analysis: Gold rose strongly yesterday, and the Asian session pulled up slightly and then fluctuated slowly upward. The European session gold price broke through the support and suppression conversion position we analyzed, and broke through the two key defense positions of 3300 and 3330 in succession. Today, the gold price opened with a single positive rise to around 3385 and was blocked. It is currently falling back at a high level. As of the time of posting, the price is around 3366. Our original idea was to focus on the support near 3162, the 618 position, of the last upward correction of gold prices before 3500. However, the rally on Monday broke through our defense level and our bearish view failed. Now that gold prices have returned to an upward trend, the structure needs to be re-analyzed.
In general, the gold price has risen in the past two days, and our spot market has maintained a steady rhythm. 3386 is a short-term suppression level. If it breaks below 3350 in the Asian session, the steady idea is to wait for a rebound and then short to see the downward trend. Focus on the support of 3272 below.
GOLD THIS is valid to day and tomorrow ,the only way to trade GOLD is based on cautious wait and see approach.
XAUUSD 15 MINUTEThis chart shows a short (sell) trading setup for gold (XAU/USD), marked with a "SELL ZONE" at approximately 3,330 and a take-profit target labeled "TADGET SUCCESSFUL" around 3,281. The red area indicates the stop-loss zone above the sell entry, while the green area shows the profit zone.
Also, a small note: there's a typo—"TADGET" should be corrected to "TARGET".
Would you like help analyzing the trade or improving the chart presentation?
GOLD FED cautious wait and see approach is now a strategy officially,we want to see the dance and the direction of the dance before we swing
XAUUSD: 8/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
4-hour chart resistance level 3410, support level 3310
1-hour chart resistance level 3380, support level 3310
30-minute chart resistance level 3350, support level 3320.
Trump said that he would hold a "large press conference" at 10 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, and may sign a trade agreement with the UK. Therefore, the news affected the gold price.
Russia implemented a ceasefire from 0:00 on May 8 to 0:00 on May 11 local time. The temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated situation in the Middle East may support the gold price in stages due to the risk aversion demand.
Recently, affected by the news, the daily operation range of gold is very large. Today, we will first look at the 3320-3360 range of fluctuations in the short term. If it breaks through, follow the trend and strictly stop loss!
Buy: 3323 SL: 3318
Sell: 3355 SL: 3360
More free analysis daily sharing
Powell's speech determines the trend.Tonight, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak again. Whether he will confront Trump head - on is something worth looking forward to. However, it is certain that the Federal Reserve will not raise or cut interest rates today. It will keep the current interest rate. Whether there will be a rate cut in June depends on what Powell says. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about the fluctuation of the gold price tonight. No one can guess whether Powell will be hawkish or dovish now. But I think that regardless of his stance, the medium - and long - term trend of the gold price is optimistic. If he really makes remarks unfavorable to gold, which lead to a temporary slump in the gold price, it may instead be an opportunity for those who haven't bought or are on the sidelines to buy at a low price. So don't pay too much attention to Powell's speech. Moreover, this old man is likely to give a very tactful speech. I think he is very likely to neither offend Trump nor sacrifice the independence of the Federal Reserve. So his speech is likely to be very tactful. Therefore, regarding the fluctuation of the gold price, we need to see his attitude in the speech. Judging from the current performance of the gold price, it has actually shown a standard four - wave adjustment in 5 minutes. When will this four - wave adjustment end? It is likely to be a volatile adjustment during the day today, lasting until the European session or even tonight. After tonight, if the adjustment ends and the support level is clear, then the fifth wave is likely to start. Of course, if Powell's speech at 2:30 a.m. is also favorable to gold, the fifth wave will be even more promising. So we can wait and see what kind of stance Powell will take in front of the world.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
XAUUSD - Entered Massive Supply Zone! Will It Dump or Break OutGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading at $3,429, testing a major supply zone on the 15-minute chart. Price has rallied over +2.84% today and is now facing a key resistance area that previously triggered sharp sell-offs.
Key Technical Zones:
Supply Zone (Resistance): $3,420 - $3,440
Price is now reacting to this heavy-volume resistance area. Watch for rejection or breakout confirmation.
Mid-Level Support: $3,344
Strong structure level where previous consolidations and rejections occurred.
Demand Zone (Support): $3,223 - $3,227
Price bounced from here with a strong bullish impulse. This is our major demand base.
What to Watch:
Bearish Scenario: Rejection from supply zone could send price back toward $3,344, then $3,227.
Bullish Breakout: Clean break and retest above $3,440 opens the door to new highs.
Confirmation Tools:
LuxAlgo's Supply & Demand Visible Range shows clear institutional activity in these zones.
Look for candlestick confirmation, volume spikes, or divergence signals for entries.
My Plan:
Watching closely for short setups near $3,440 unless we get a confirmed breakout. If rejected, I’ll target the $3,344 and $3,227 zones.
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What do you think? Will gold break out or get rejected hard again?
Like and share if you find this helpful — let’s grow together!
Gold 100% Profit SignalWith the sharp drop on Monday, gold will not be as strong as before, but don't forget that the overall gold price is still bullish. It is currently an adjustment under the big cycle, which I have always emphasized. It opened lower on Monday, and this situation has definitely weakened. The market outlook needs to observe whether it will continue. Today, the market is looking for support near 3200, but it can also turn strong at any time under the current market conditions. After all, the big cycle is still bullish. After waiting for the small cycle adjustment to end, it is likely to return to the bullish trend. From the short-term, it has now rebounded to around 3240 near the 3200 mark for rectification. The upper short-term pressure is near 3300 and 3260. If it does not break this position, it will first fluctuate downward. Once it stands firmly above this position, the market outlook can still see 3350-3400. In short-term operations, first use 3260 as a stop loss and short at highs below. First look at this wave of callback profits, and then look at the support of the previous low point of 3200 below. If it breaks, we expect the downward trend to continue. If it doesn't break, we will go long on the reverse. Then, based on the support situation at 3200, we will choose the opportunity to go long and arrange a long-term bullish plan.
For short-term gold trading, you can do short-term shorts below 790, and the support below is around 760. Then consider going long. Rongtong Gold and Accumulated Gold are long-term products. From a long-term perspective, they are still rising. Let's wait for this wave of decline to complete the bottoming. Currently, it is still fluctuating in the range, with support below at 750 and pressure above at 790 and 810. So you can consider entering the market in batches at 750-770. If you have long orders, just continue to hold them. In the future, we will look at 800 or above when the market rises.
Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Rejection at Resistance – Targeting 3275This chart shows a bearish setup XAU/USD. Price has recently retested a resistance zone around 3330–3340 after a break of structure (BOS) and multiple change of character (ChoCH) signals. The bearish rejection from this zone suggests a potential downside move. The first target is marked around 3275, indicating a short-term bearish expectation. The cloud (Ichimoku) also aligns with bearish momentum as price is currently trading near or below the cloud.
The 1st target at 3275 represents a key support level where price previously consolidated and reversed. It’s likely chosen as a take-profit zone because:
It aligns with previous structure support.
It’s the nearest significant low after the recent break of structure.
It's a conservative target, offering a favourable risk-reward ratio from the current resistance rejection.
Traders may expect price to reach this level before assessing further continuation or reversal.
Gold Buy Opportunity🟢 Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Long Setup – Bullish Reversal from Key Demand Zone
Gold is showing early signs of a bullish reversal from the 4H demand zone near 3270, with confluence from the 200 EMA and previous volume accumulation support (visible via VPVR).
✅ Entry: 3270.35
🎯 Target: 3369.45
🛑 Stop Loss: 3252.77
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: 5.17
📆 Projection: 3.03% move in 3 days (by May 15)
📈 Technical Highlights:
EMA Support: Price is testing the 200 EMA, acting as a dynamic support zone.
Volume Profile: Significant buying volume accumulated in the current region, increasing bounce probability.
Structure: Higher-low formation still intact; rejection wick suggests buyer defense.
Bullish Target: Previous 4H supply near 3369 aligns with clean breakout structure.
Gold Range CautionGold: Trapped in mid-range. Safer play is buying dips from the range low in trend direction. Reversal attempts are fading—use wider stops for deeper limit entries.
