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XAUUSD trade ideas

XAU/USD: New ATH ~ $3500, What's Next? (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the 15-minute gold chart, we can see that the price once again reached a new high today, rallying up to the key psychological level of $3500. Following this move, gold has experienced a pullback down to $3423 so far. If the price stabilizes below $3442, we will likely see a further correction toward the next target at $3411. (This analysis will be updated) Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
13
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl 3228.Colleagues, last week we got a stoploss, but I still believe that we should expect a correction in wave “2”. We will try to catch this movement this week. I believe that the price will correct to the area of Fibonacci 38.2% - 50% levels (3228.41). Perhaps the price will slightly renew the maximum of wave “1”, reaching the level of 3438. In this case I recommend to work with pending limit sell orders. And some data: The prevalence of bulls according to CME reports additionally increased by 13%. The 23% increase in market volume, meanwhile, indicates a likely strong momentum pattern during the trading week. Despite the 13% increase in buyers, selling patterns towards the balance level of the week (3200.00) are recommended for the current trading week. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Hellena_Trade
7
#XAUUSD :Is it a Correction Or a start of Major Bearish Trend? Gold has plummeted from 3550 to 3270, and it’s been falling steadily. We firmly believe that the price could reverse from either of our entry points, but given its significant drop, it raises concerns among traders. If the trend has shifted to bearish, it will likely continue to target buyers’ stop losses. In these market conditions, we strongly advise trading with utmost caution and prioritising risk management. Good luck and trade safely. Thanks for your support! 😊 If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
6
Gold Drops $200 in Hours – Panic or Opportunity? 📌 Gold Plunges $200 – Volatility Surges Amid Fed Signals and Market Panic 🔥📉 📰 What Just Happened? Yesterday, gold (XAU/USD) experienced one of its sharpest intraday drops in recent months, tumbling from the all-time high around $3,500 to as low as $3,318, losing nearly $200 in just a few hours. This marked a significant correction following an extended bullish trend. 🔍 Key Drivers Behind the Crash Fed-related commentary spurred aggressive profit-taking across the market. The USD staged a technical rebound, exerting downward pressure on gold. Rapid sentiment shifts triggered panic selling and liquidation flows. 🧭 What’s Next for Gold? The $3,300–3,320 zone is now a crucial support — if this level holds, a technical recovery could unfold. However, a break below $3,300 may expose gold to deeper downside targets near $3,250. ⚠️ Strategic Considerations This is a high-volatility environment — flexibility and strict risk management are key. Current sentiment is fragile. Unpredictable political headlines and mixed Fed signals are adding to the uncertainty. In the latest development, Trump clarified he has no intention to fire the Fed Chair and hinted that China’s tariffs could be eased slightly — but not eliminated. These mixed messages continue to create sharp swings in price. 📊 Trade Plan 🔻 SELL ZONE #1: Entry: 3,378 – 3,380 Stop Loss: 3,384 Take Profits: 3,374 → 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,362 → 3,358 → 3,350 🔻 SELL ZONE #2: Entry: 3,408 – 3,410 Stop Loss: 3,414 Take Profits: 3,404 → 3,400 → 3,396 → 3,392 → 3,386 → 3,380 🟢 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3,292 – 3,290 Stop Loss: 3,286 Take Profits: 3,296 → 3,300 → 3,304 → 3,308 → 3,312 → 3,316 → 3,320 The priority remains to sell into rallies near resistance while the downtrend unfolds. All trades should be protected with tight stop-losses, given the current unpredictability. 🧠 Key Takeaways This is not a market for guessing — wait for price confirmation at key zones. Focus on reaction zones, not forecasts. Stay light, stay nimble, and manage risk carefully — news-driven volatility is at its peak. 💬 How are you positioning in this volatile gold market? Waiting for the bounce or selling the rallies? Let us know below! 👇👇👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
5
"Gold on Fire: Eyeing $3500 After RBR Zone Rebound! "1️⃣ Trend Overview 📈 Strong bullish rally from April 11 to the peak. 📉 Pullback after reaching the recent ATH (All-Time High) zone. 2️⃣ Key Zones 🔵 RBR Zone (Rally-Base-Rally): Marked support area between $3,271.41 and $3,307.04. Acts as a buy zone / entry point. 🟣 ATH Zone: Minor resistance from the recent high. Price pulled back from here before potentially continuing up. 3️⃣ Entry & Target ✅ Entry Point: Around $3,307.04 (top of RBR zone). 🎯 Target Point: Clearly defined at $3,500.71. Potential Gain: +188.59 points ROI: +5.70% 4️⃣ Indicator 📊 EMA (7, close): Currently at $3,329.09 Price is slightly below EMA = short-term correction or pause. Strategy Summary 🟢 Buy Setup: Wait for price to return to RBR zone Enter long position ✅ Target $3,500 🚀 ⚠️ Risk Consideration: Place stop-loss below RBR zone for safety.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Jameshead007
15
Dealing with Stress in Trading: The Silent Killer of PerformanceTrading is hard. But not just technically or economically — emotionally, it's one of the most demanding things you can do. Charts, indicators, news, setups — they’re all part of the job. But behind every click, there’s a person reacting to fear, frustration, regret, and pressure. And that’s where stress creeps in. In this article, we’ll explore: • Why trading stress hits harder than most think • How it manifests (and sabotages) your decisions • Practical ways to reduce and manage stress • The mindset shift that changes everything ________________________________________ 🔥 Why Trading Is Uniquely Stressful Most jobs reward consistency. Trading, ironically, punishes it at times. You can do everything “right” and still lose money. You can follow your plan, manage risk, and still watch a red candle wipe your equity. The problem? Our brains aren’t built for that kind of randomness. We crave cause-effect logic — but markets aren't and most of all don’t care. This disconnect creates cognitive dissonance . The result? Stress builds up. ________________________________________ 🧠 How Stress Sabotages Traders (Without Them Realizing) Stress doesn’t always show up as panic. More often, it shows up as: • Overtrading (trying to ‘fix’ bad trades emotionally) • Freezing (not taking good setups out of fear) • Revenge trading (turning a bad trade into a disaster) • Inconsistency (changing strategy mid-week, mid-trade, mid-breath) • Physical symptoms (fatigue, headaches, insomnia — yes, it's real) Left unchecked, stress creates a loop: Stress → bad trades → more stress → worse decisions. ________________________________________ 🛠️ Practical Techniques to Manage Trading Stress Here’s what actually helps — not the Instagram-fluff, but what real traders use: 1. Create Pre-Defined Trade Plans Stress loves uncertainty. But when you enter a trade with exact entries, stops, and targets, you leave less room for panic-based decisions. ✅ Pro tip: Write your trade plan down. Don’t trade from memory. ________________________________________ 2. Use the 3-Strike Rule If you take 3 consecutive losses or bad trades — stop for the day, or if you are a swing trader, stop for the week, come back on Monday. It’s not about revenge. It’s about protecting mental capital. “When in doubt, protect your focus. You can’t trade well without it.” ________________________________________ 3. Build a Trading Routine (Like a Ritual) Start each session the same way. Same coffee, same chart review, same breathing. Why? It anchors your brain. Predictability in your environment reduces the emotional chaos inside your head. ________________________________________ 4. Step Away from the Screen (Yes, Physically) After a tough trade, move. Walk. Stretch. Get outside. Go to gym, ride your bike(these I do most often). Reset your nervous system. Trading is mental, but stress is physical too. You’re not a robot. Don't act like one. ________________________________________ 5. Track Your Emotional State (Not Just P&L) Keep a trading journal where you note how you felt before/after trades. You’ll find patterns like: • “I lose when I’m bored and looking for action” • “My best trades happen when I feel calm and centered” Awareness = control. ________________________________________ 🧭 The Mindset Shift: From Outcome to Process This might be the most important thing I’ll ever tell you: Detach from results. Fall in love with process. Your goal isn’t to win every trade. Your goal is to execute your plan with discipline. Every time you do that — even on a losing trade — you’re winning the real game. That’s how stress stops being the master and becomes the servant. ________________________________________ 🧘 Final Thought: Stress Will Never Go Away — and That’s Okay You’ll always feel something. But the goal isn’t to be emotionless — it’s to be aware and in control. Trading is like martial arts: the best fighters aren’t calm because they feel nothing. They’re calm because they’ve trained their response. So train yours. ________________________________________ 💬 Remember, consistency in mindset creates consistency in results.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
10
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GOLD? Gold has successfully broken above its resistance zone and the top of the ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. Two support zones have been identified below the current price. A correction toward one of these levels is expected before the next bullish leg begins. After a pullback to one of these support areas, we expect gold to resume its uptrend and push toward higher levels and new highs. Among the two, the second support zone is considered a safer entry point for long positions, as it may offer stronger support and a better risk-reward setup. 💡 Which support zone would you use for your buy entry? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HAMED_AZ
5
Gold at PRZ Again – Correction to $3,227 Possible!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to rise as I expected in the previous idea and created a new All-Time High(ATH) as usual . How long do you think the upward trend of Gold will continue!? ( Please give your reasons for the rise, I would appreciate it. ) Gold is trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and trying to break the Uptrend line . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it appears that Gold has completed another 5-wave impulsive . Signs of the completion of the main wave 5 can be the presence of Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks, and the break of the Uptrend line (validly) . I expect Gold to fall to $3,227 in the coming hours. Note: If Gold can move above $3,420, we can expect more pumps. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
7
Fading Gold’s All‑Time HighGold has just posted a euphoric all‑time high at 3 499.6 after an almost parabolic climb along a single ascending trend‑line, and the wick that pierced that level sits in a thin, low‑volume pocket on the profile—classic bull‑trap territory—so once we see a four‑hour close beneath the trend‑line we expect momentum algos to flip, dragging price swiftly toward the 3 160‑3 130 demand block that marks the prior high‑volume consolidation; the short thesis is to scale into shorts between 3 480‑3 510, place invalidation above 3 525, and ride a potential vacuum move to that target zone (with room to extend toward 3 100) as crowded longs unwind, especially if a hawkish Fed headline or uptick in real yields provides the spark.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by johnconner966
2
Lingrid | GOLD correction Phase Following RESISTANCE RejectionOANDA:XAUUSD market bounced off the resistance and dropped, creating approximately a -6% correction after the previous bullish momentum. Price action formed a gap which was subsequently filled. Notably, this corrective move mirrors a similar pattern observed at the beginning of this month when the market also corrected by -6.6%. Currently, the price is testing the previous week's high area, which may establish itself as a support zone. Following such a rapid decline, price typically enters a consolidation phase - we might see sideways movement around the 3300 level for some time. However, if we get a rejection candles forming at current levels, I expect the price to move higher and retest the recent resistance zone. My goal is resistance zone around 3500 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
10
XAUUSD trade idea for upcoming week Current Situation: : Price is around 3326 : There’s a strong previous uptrend, and now price is recovering from a recent dip. Trade Setup Explanation : Bullish Phase (Short-Term Buy Idea) : First Buy Zone: Current price up to the all-time high zone around 3355. : The chart anticipates a short-term bullish push, likely to retest the ATH area. : This zone is considered a liquidity grab or “trap” area, where price could reject and reverse. Main Sell Zone: > Sell Zone Identified: 3355–3360 area. > This is a key resistance zone with: > Previous multiple rejections (marked by red arrows). > It's also where sellers are expected to be strong. Sell Target Path: 1: TP1 = 3305 – Minor support, first logical reaction zone. 2: Price is then expected to range around 3305–3295 (highlighted in purple). 3: After consolidation, the expectation is a bearish continuation. >>Final Target = 3255 – A major support zone and final destination of the swing short.<<
TVC:GOLDShort
by Ahmad_Fxbeast
4
Please be carefulFrom a purely technical point of view, the bulls are in control of the overall situation under the support of the big positive line on the weekly chart. The Asian session has maintained the rule of opening up for more than a month. On the market, the spot gold US session low point 3220-15 area long and short strength dividing line, strong above, weak below; Asian session retracement low 3185-90 long and short watershed, above the long, short or even plummet rapidly. From the upside, it is still a blind spot, pay attention to the 3245 area, then 3265-60 and 3300 mark.There are many news over the weekend, and the opening of next week is crucial. A high opening, a low opening, or a flat opening indicates different risk sentiments. In terms of operation, either watch more and do less, or don't be afraid to follow the market sentiment; however, while maintaining a bullish bullish position in the short term, beware of the sudden change in the tariffs of the country causing a rapid collapse and plunge in the gold market; after a rapid rise in the short term, the fall will be more fierce, and a collapse or rise is a matter of news!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Donk_66
3
Gold has the strength to keep rising At the end of the week gold confirmed the formation of the trading range, support 3286, resistance 3356. I consider the continuation of realization of potential of false breakout of support as a positive scenario. If gold holds above 3313, the market may continue buying, which will lead to a rise to ATH Scenario: the price is in a local descending channel, but in a global bullish trend. A bounce to 3313 from the channel resistance may occur, followed by a continuation growth to 3342 or to 3356.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
4
DeGRAM | GOLD Anchored Above the Channel📊 Technical Analysis GOLD trades within an ascending channel, holding above $3 285 support. A breakout from a triangle confirms bullish momentum. Key targets are $3 360 - $3 380. 💡 Fundamental Analysis Demand is rising amid safe-haven flows, Chinese insurer interest, and central bank buying. A weaker USD and US - China tensions support gold. ✨ Summary Technical breakout and strong fundamentals favor XAUUSD growth. Holding above $3 285 keeps the path open to $3 360. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
4
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: another ATH, another monster move from Gold! It hit our long target, but no confirmed reversal from the region. Instead, we activated higher which we took caution on but managed to get in on the short just as we wanted using the red box indi's from better price regions. Not a bad day but we could have done with the levels playing ball. Now we have completed the move that we initially wanted and got a bounce which turns resistance into the 3440 level on the reversal! That's the level that needs to be watched for the break above forcefully to then take out another new ATH and then give another potential entry. To much going on to keep track off, so level to level unless we get the extreme levels. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Another blinder of a day on Gold! Although we didn't get the entry again that we wanted from higher up, we continued to hold with the move downside completing Excalibur and using the Indi levels and boxes to guide us. Now we're at crucial support here and just below 3255 which if attacked and bounced, we should see a retracement up into the 3295 and 3310 regions initially. Too low to short, only support levels for tests here. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, A PITASTIC day on the charts with our targets getting smashed, confirmed with ema5 cross and lock to give us plenty of time to get in for the action. After support and bounce from 3201 Goldturn into 3230 we stated that we will now look for a break and lock above 3230 for a continuation into the Bullish targets above. We got the lock opening the levels above hitting our Bullish target at 3261, followed with a further cross and lock opening 3292, which was hit perfectly and then our final lock for today above 3292 opened 3324 now complete - what a day!!!!! We will now look for a lock above 3324 for a continuation into our final target 3352 or a rejection here will see price test the Goldturn below for support and bounce. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3261 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3292 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3324 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3352 BEARISH TARGETS 3230 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3201 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3201 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE 3179 3152 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3152 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3120 3094 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3094 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3069 - 3038 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
GOLD SMASHES THROUGH $3,450🚨 GOLD SMASHES THROUGH $3,450 – IS THIS THE START OF A GLOBAL FINANCIAL RESET? 🚨 🔥 Unstoppable Surge in Motion 🔥 Gold has soared past $3,450 as Asian markets opened, climbing over $100 a day! In just two weeks, gold is up by over $500 — this isn’t just a rally, it’s a major structural breakout. A surge in demand from Chinese funds appears to be fuelling the rise, with increasing evidence that Asia is leading a strategic shift away from fiat risk. 💷 Is the Dollar in Decline? Investors Flee the Old System 💷 The US Dollar Index (DXY) has taken a sharp downturn — confidence in USD is clearly under pressure. Capital is flowing out of the United States, signalling a move away from the traditional financial order dominated by the dollar. This gold rally isn't just about price — it's a global vote of no confidence in the status quo. 📉 Implications for the UK With the pound holding relatively stable against the dollar, this gold spike presents a unique hedge opportunity. For UK investors, rising gold prices could help offset currency risk and inflation concerns — especially in the face of persistent market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. 📊 Technical Overview 📊 Gold is currently testing critical resistance around $3,519. A pullback may see it retest support at $3,416 or as low as $3,210. Fibonacci levels indicate a likely consolidation zone around $3,416. The momentum is strong — we could be in the early phase of a global asset rotation. 📈 2-Hour Gold Chart Insight Recent charts show a parabolic move with significant volume, primarily from Asia-based buyers. This is not a short-term speculative move — it's likely a long-term strategic repositioning. 🌍 What Comes Next? 🌍 Should gold maintain levels above $3,450, a move towards $3,600 and beyond looks increasingly likely. Talk of a financial "reset" is no longer just fringe theory — it’s entering the mainstream conversation. From a UK perspective, now could be the time to: Re-evaluate gold as a portfolio stabiliser Reconsider exposure to US-denominated assets Anticipate further volatility across fiat currencies 📌 Key Price Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,519 / $3,601 Support: $3,416 / $3,210 Upside Target: $3,600+ 📈 Suggested Trading Zones: Buy Zone Entry: $3,424 – $3,422 Stop Loss: $3,418 Take Profit Targets: $3,428 / $3,432 / $3,436 / $3,440 / $3,450 Sell Zone Entry: $3,604 – $3,606 Stop Loss: $3,610 Take Profit Targets: $3,600 / $3,596 / $3,592 / $3,588 / $3,584 / $3,580 💬 What’s your take? Is gold signalling the end of USD dominance? Is the UK prepared for a global monetary shake-up? Let’s discuss. 🪙
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
3
3382 , next ATH number today, GOLD⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a phase of consolidation on Thursday, trading within a narrow range near its all-time high reached during the Asian session, as investors digest conflicting market signals. Stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales figures and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have lent support to the US Dollar (USD), curbing some of gold’s upside momentum. Meanwhile, the upbeat sentiment across equity markets and mildly overbought technical conditions are prompting traders to remain cautious, limiting fresh buying interest in the precious metal for now. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price continues to increase today, the fomo still has no end, pay attention to the new ATH price zone 3382 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3381- 3383 SL 3388 TP1: $3370 TP2: $3355 TP3: $3333 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3302 - $3300 SL $3295 TP1: $3310 TP2: $3320 TP3: $3330 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
4
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Setup: Bullish Breakout Toward $3,637 TargeCurrent Price: $3,309.18 EMA 30 (Red Line): $3,265.00 EMA 200 (Blue Line): $3,163.35 Trend Direction: Strong uptrend (price above both EMAs) Timeframe: 1-hour (short-term analysis) 📍 Key Levels Entry Point: Around $3,266.63 (just above EMA 30) Stop Loss: Around $3,265.00 Target (EA Target Point): $3,637.23 Potential Profit: +$365.01 or +11.16% 🔍 Technical Patterns & Zones Rising Channel: Price is moving within a rising wedge or channel, indicating bullish momentum but with narrowing range — a potential reversal signal if broken. Support Zone: Highlighted purple box around the entry point; likely a demand zone. Resistance Zone: $3,637.23 area marked as the EA Target Point — previous resistance or Fibonacci extension level. ✅ Bullish Signals Price is consistently making higher highs and higher lows. EMAs are aligned in a bullish formation (short EMA above long EMA). Clear breakout above consolidation range recently. Trade setup shows favorable risk-to-reward ratio. ⚠️ Risks / Caution Rising wedge can sometimes break down — watch for volume drop or divergence. Potential pullback to the entry zone is expected (indicated by the arrow). News Events: Symbols below the chart indicate upcoming USD economic data, which could bring volatility. 📈 Strategy Summary Buy on pullback to $3,266.63 with tight stop at $3,265.00. Target: $3,637.23 — potential 11% gain. Risk: Minimal if stop is respected, tight stop-loss.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
9
XAUUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my XAUUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
3
Gold's Cup and Handle: Historical Analysis, post completionThe recent completion of a Cup and Handle pattern on Gold price action leaves an open question about the historical performance after such a technical formation plays out. While Cup and Handle patterns are generally considered bullish, there are legitimate historical reasons to question maintaining a long position after the pattern completes. Pattern completion often marks exhaustion points ====================================== Historically, the completion of a Cup and Handle pattern indicates near term exhaustion of buying pressure rather than the beginning of a sustained move higher. This occurs because: 1) The pattern completion itself often represents the culmination of a buildup in speculative long positioning. 2) Technical traders who entered based on the pattern may take profits once their target is achieved. 3) The psychological milestone of completing the pattern can trigger selling from larger institutional players. For example, the technical Bull flag of 2001 on completion saw a 40% following correction. Were that to happen on the Cup and Handle pattern upon completion price action would return to $1950 2001 Bull flag Monetary policy transition periods ====================================== Historical analysis shows that gold's technical pattern reliability decreases significantly during periods of monetary policy transitions. If the Cup and Handle completion coincides with a shift in central back policy stance (particularly Federal Reserve policy), historical precedent suggest heightened risk of pattern failure. Looking left, breakouts in the Bond market resulted in serious downside pressure for Gold price action, the Federal Reserve may not have a choice in the months ahead. Especially as the cost of servicing the debt grows and foreign entities increase Bond market selling pressure. 10 year Bond breakout Conclusion ====================================== While the Cup and Handle pattern is traditionally viewed as bullish, historical data specific to gold markets suggest caution about maintaining long position immediately following pattern completion. The historical tendency toward mean reversion, pattern reliability concerns, volatility expansion, and correlation breakdowns all suggest that a more measured approach may be warranted. Ww
OANDA:XAUUSD
by without_worries
5