XAUUSD - GOLD UPDATES - May 2nd - before NFP🪙 GOLDMINDSFX | MAY 2 XAUUSD IDEAS
“Gold plays games. We play levels.”
🏛️ MACRO & POLITICAL CONTEXT
Gold is stabilizing inside a retracement phase following April's all-time high (ATH 3500). After sweeping major liquidity below 3205, we’ve seen structure shift back to bullish on the lower timeframes.
Today’s NFP may trigger sharp volatility, but we trade structure, not headlines.
China remains closed for Labor Day until May 5—reduced Asia volume. Meanwhile, Q1 data shows central bank gold accumulation slowing, adding caution to global demand outlook.
With recent lows defended and current price inside a decision zone, we wait for liquidity to declare direction—no predictions, only reactions.
🔁 MARKET STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
Confirmed CHoCH from 3205
BOS above 3233
Bullish FVGs developing
HTF still bearish under 3333
📍Live Price: 3265
📌 TECHNICAL ZONES & CONFLUENCES
🔼 BUY ZONES
🟢 Buy Zone #1: 3233–3220
15M FVG + recent impulse rejection
Entry on rejection or liquidity wick
🟢 Buy Zone #2: 3205–3190
CHoCH origin + 1H OB
Golden pocket: 0.618–0.705
Ideal continuation setup
🟢 Buy Zone #3: 3172–3160
H4 OB + EQ + deep liquidity
Final support before full structural flip
🔽 SELL ZONES
🔴 Sell Zone #1: 3284–3295
1H supply + FVG + BOS confluence
Buy-side liquidity resting above 3280
🔴 Sell Zone #2: 3325–3333
Prior rejection base + liquidity shelf
Best R:R trap zone
🔴 Sell Zone #3: 3366–3378
Final stop-hunt trap zone before reversal
Use only with rejection / PA confirmation
🧠 STRATEGY NOTES
SL adjusted to 100–150 pips according to entry zone
Price is coiling under 3265 = decision time
Liquidity is stacked above and below—wait for sweep and structure shift
We’re not here to predict. We hunt zones and execute like killers.
Confirmation before entry: BOS, CHoCH, wick traps, engulfing, rejection wicks.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
🖊️ If these insights help you refine your trading plans, give us a boost and follow GoldMindsFX on TradingView. Let's grow together!
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold 100% Profit SignalGold rose strongly again today as a safe-haven, breaking the volatility and rising to the highest point of 3328. However, gold has basically not pulled back, so it is very likely that the safe-haven sentiment will be released directly, and then gold will start to adjust again. Therefore, it is not suitable to chase it at this position now. It is better to wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. Gold may rise and fall at any time. Go short directly at 3328 in the US market!
The 4-hour moving average of gold began to turn, so the unilateral decline of gold temporarily came to an end. However, the rise of gold has reached the key resistance area in the early stage, which is the starting point of the early stage near 3330. It is obviously not appropriate to chase more at this position, so the short-term may begin to adjust, and the gold US market will be shorted near 3300. The market is changing rapidly. If gold breaks upward and does not step back, there is no opportunity to go long, so there is no need to chase more gold, and it is better to go short first to see the decline and adjustment.
Gold strategy: Suggest short at 3325-28, stop loss at 3337, target at 3308-3295-3280
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl 3228.Colleagues, last week we got a stoploss, but I still believe that we should expect a correction in wave “2”. We will try to catch this movement this week.
I believe that the price will correct to the area of Fibonacci 38.2% - 50% levels (3228.41).
Perhaps the price will slightly renew the maximum of wave “1”, reaching the level of 3438. In this case I recommend to work with pending limit sell orders.
And some data:
The prevalence of bulls according to CME reports additionally increased by 13%.
The 23% increase in market volume, meanwhile, indicates a likely strong momentum pattern during the trading week.
Despite the 13% increase in buyers, selling patterns towards the balance level of the week (3200.00) are recommended for the current trading week.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD: 5/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
4-hour chart resistance level 3350, support level 3260
1-hour chart resistance level 3350, support level 3274
30-minute chart resistance level 3320, support level 3290
At the 4-hour level, gold lows continue to move up, highs continue to refresh, MACD technical indicators have formed a golden cross upward, adding momentum to the bulls.
The previous high of 3272 will turn into support after breaking through. If the retracement is large, buy again after stabilizing in the 3270-3280 range.
Short-term resistance is at the previous high of 3320. After breaking through, the upward trend will continue. The bullish targets are 3330 and 3350 respectively. If it is blocked near 3350, you can consider selling
XAUUSD: 1/5 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold
Daily chart resistance 3283, support below 3167
Four-line chart resistance 3283, support below 3200
One-hour chart resistance 3243, support below 3200
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, continue to pay attention to the short-term suppression of the 3250-65 area above, and continue to be bearish if it rebounds during the day. The support below is around the 3200 integer mark and 3167. The short-term long-short conversion position is in the 3260~3265 area. You can buy after it stabilizes.
Sell: 3283near SL: 3287
Sell: 3243near SL: 3248
Sell: 3200near SL: 3205
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Resistance 1: 3260 - 3288 area
Resistance 2: 3350 - 3386 area
Resistance 3: 3482 - 3501 area
Support 1: 3191 - 3210 area
Support 2: 3135 - 3167 area
Support 3: 2956 - 2981 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD Channel Up intact and targeting the 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 30 2024 High and is currently on its latest technical Bearish Leg. The last pull-back tested the 1D MA50 (blue tend-line) before rebounding again.
As you can see the Low that this pull-back made was also on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. On the current Bearish Leg, the 0.618 Fib is at 3155 and can make contact with the 1D MA50 within 1 week. That is our short-term Target, but depending on the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, it may be achieved earlier.
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XAUUSD:It is the right time to go short at high levels.The price of gold has strongly surged to around $3,315, forming a key resistance level. Analyzing from both the technical perspective and market sentiment, the selling pressure above this price level is remarkable, and the risk of a short-term pullback has intensified. The current market structure indicates that placing short positions at this high level may effectively capture the profit-taking space during the price correction, which can be regarded as a sensible trading strategy.
XAUUSD
sell@3315-3320
tp:3300-3280
The price of gold has strongly surged to around $3,315, forming a key resistance level. Analyzing from both the technical perspective and market sentiment, the selling pressure above this price level is remarkable, and the risk of a short-term pullback has intensified. The current market structure indicates that placing short positions at this high level may effectively capture the profit-taking space during the price correction, which can be regarded as a sensible trading strategy.
From Tulips to Tech: The Evolution of Financial Bubbles 🎯 Introduction:
financial/economic bubbles are a recurring theme in economic history, this is often when a particular financial asset goes to unrealistic price levels often making money for early investors but usually these high price levels do not match their fundamental value this is then followed by a large public participation who also want a piece of the pie eventually with the price collapsing or sharply declining blowing or living investors in a large financial loss..
From 17th-century tulip gardens to 21st-century crypto manias, one thing has remained constant: Humans never learn.
Every generation thinks this time is different — but the pattern of bubbles keeps repeating.
Here's the crash course in 400 years of financial euphoria, panic, and pain.
🧠 Section 1: 1637 — Tulip Mania 🌷
The original bubble.
In the Netherlands, rare tulip bulbs were worth more than houses.
Prices exploded... then collapsed 90% in a matter of weeks.
Lesson: Speculation + FOMO is not new. Humans were flipping flowers before they flipped crypto.
Mini Nerd Tip:
"When people stop caring about value and only care about price rising, watch out."
🧠 Section 2: 1720 — South Sea Bubble 📜
Britain’s South Sea Company promised massive profits trading with South America (but barely did any business).
Politicians and aristocrats pumped the stock price.
Collapsed spectacularly → ruined many fortunes (including Isaac Newton himself:
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men.")
Mini Nerd Tip:
"If a bubble needs government help to stay alive, it's already dying."
🧠 Section 3: 1929 — Wall Street Crash 🏛️
Roaring 20s: endless optimism, cheap margin loans, "stocks only go up!"
1929: Stock market crashed, triggering the Great Depression.
People were buying stocks with 10% down and gambling recklessly.
Mini Nerd Tip:
"When leverage is everywhere, the smallest panic causes waterfalls."
🧠 Section 4: 2000 — Dotcom Bubble 💻
Everyone thought the internet would change everything (it did — but slower and differently).
Companies with no profits were valued in billions.
"Eyeballs" were treated as real revenue.
NASDAQ lost 78% from top to bottom.
Mini Nerd Tip:
"Innovation creates real value... but hype inflates fake value faster."
🧠 Section 5: 2008 — Housing Bubble 🏡
Banks handed out mortgages to anyone.
Financial engineering (CDOs, synthetic MBS) created the illusion of safety.
US housing prices collapsed → global financial crisis.
"Too Big to Fail" became the famous phrase.
Mini Nerd Tip:
"If everyone is getting rich easily, someone is lying or blind."
🧠 Section 6: 2017/2021 — Crypto & Meme Stocks 🚀
Gamestop, Dogecoin, NFTs, Shiba Inu — the wildest "everyone’s a genius" market since the 1920s.
Social media + free apps = amplified bubble speed.
Massive rises, insane collapses.
Mini Nerd Tip:
"Technology changes, human emotion doesn’t."
🧠 Final Section: Why Bubbles Will Never End
Greed, fear, and FOMO are timeless.
Every era dresses up bubbles in new clothes (flowers, sea companies, internet, crypto).
Smart traders understand this pattern — and use it to survive and thrive.
"**Bubbles don't pop because of bad assets. They pop because confidence disappears
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
courtesy of : @TradingView
XAU / GOLD🌟 GOLD: THE BIGGEST TRADE OF SUMMER 2025
XAU/USD Forecast
📈 PHASE 1: SHORT-TERM RALLY (after small correction to 3172$)
We expect a bounce toward the $3,789–$3,800 resistance zone.
🔴 PHASE 2: THE SHAKEOUT
May 27 SELL ZONE.
After May 27, the cycle flips.
Expect a violent correction, retracing into key support around $2,880–$2,970 or even lower.
🟢 PHASE 3: THE BUY ZONE — July 13 +/- few days.
Mid-July marks the ideal long-term entry into TVC:GOLD before the explosive move.
🚀 PHASE 4: THE BREAKOUT
Target: ATH above $4,000 by late summer
Yes, EUROTLX:4K + gold is coming — but only after the market resets.
Gold BOS retest!Currently on a trade holding longs. It seems like we might have a short retracement upside to test that structure shift.. My hunch is that the gold will be making new HL soon and then finally LH on bigger tf, 1D. Too overbought, and now that the bull runs over, market makers will be jumping in to manipulate soon, so it will be wise to trade gold only for long term investments instead of day trading. Swing and long term short hold will be the best imo. I think that as high as gold will go for few months.. but please do your own analysis and keep a bias.
XAU/USD Breakdown: Bears in Command
Current Bias: Bearish
Market Structure: Lower highs and lower lows forming post recent peak near $3268.05.
Price Action: Gold recently broke below a key support zone around $3268.05,
Trade Setups
📉 Bearish Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry: On rejection at $3256.24 or a break/retest of $3268.05
Stop Loss: $3272.67
Take Profit:
TP1: $3193.97
TP2: $3102.09
TP3: $3047.62
capital: $50
risk: $46(-96%)
reward: $380(+250%)
bullish reject support 4H?Gold is currently sitting right at a major 4H demand zone (2627–2611), which also aligns with the third touch of a descending channel support — a classic potential reversal signal. Bulls may look for confirmation here, but if this zone fails, we could head lower toward the next demand zone
Final Leg of Wave 4 Before Wave 5 RallyGold (XAUUSD) is forming a textbook impulsive Elliott Wave structure on the 1-hour chart.
Wave 3 peaked around 3,131 USD, followed by a corrective Wave 4 currently in progress.
Substructure shows wave (iii) ending at 3,150.57 and an expected wave (iv) bounce capped near 3,228–3,198 USD, followed by a final dip.
The projected Wave 4 termination zone lies within the confluence of:
A key demand area: 3,110–3,000 USD
Rising channel support
1.618 Fib extension of Wave A ≈ 2,982.93 USD
A bullish breakout from this zone would mark the beginning of Wave 5, aiming for new highs above 3,360+ USD.
📉 Short-term Bias:
Expect one more drop to complete Wave 4 within the gray demand zone.
📈 Medium-term Outlook:
Anticipating a strong Wave 5 rally once support holds and price breaks the descending resistance trendline.
🔻 Invalidation:
A break below 2,982 USD would invalidate this count and suggest deeper correction.
#XAUUSD #Gold #ElliottWave #Wave4 #Wave5 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Forex #ICMarkets #PriceAction #1HourChart #FibLevels #BullishOutlook
GOLD-SELL strategy 3 Hourly chart GANN SQGOLD may have a possible S/H/S pattern, and neckline break was @ $ 3,290 area. This translates to a possible objective $ 3,030. The GANN SQ also shows potential for further weakness in the near-term.
Strategy SELL @ $ 3,250-3,275 and take profit near $ 3,137 on first move down.
GOLD market update: range locked / breakout pending🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Market Overview
▪️broke above 3 000 USD
▪️3250 USD S/R cleared as well
▪️Tested 3500 USD key S/R
▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R
▪️pullback in progress currently
▪️locked inside range trading
▪️3275/3365 usd active range
▪️break below 3245 - BEARS take over
▪️break above 3385 - BULLS take over
▪️Bulls targets - 3450/3550 USD
▪️Bears targets - 3050/3150 USD
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️Wait for a breakout
▪️LONG/SHORT after breakout
🔥 Key Drivers to Watch
🌍 Geopolitics & Trade
🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Tariffs: Escalation continues pushing inflation fears & gold demand
🇪🇺 EU–U.S. tariffs (25%) are further straining global trade
💵 Weaker USD = stronger gold sentiment
🕊 Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks
🗓 May 9 (Victory Day): Symbolic date eyed for a possible ceasefire announcement
🇷🇺 Parade vs 🇺🇦 EU leaders visiting Kyiv — all eyes on peace prospects
☢️ U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal
🗓 April 28: Talks in Rome
🇮🇷 Iran shows readiness — possible easing of Middle East tensions
GOLD → Trend reversal, downward distribution, and new targetsFX:XAUUSD breaks through 3270 and enters a distribution phase amid a rising dollar. We are most likely at the beginning of a trend reversal...
On Thursday, gold remains under pressure, trading at a two-week low, as the market reacts to Trump's statements about potential trade agreements with a number of countries, including China. Optimism surrounding the negotiations is boosting risk appetite, reducing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Even weak US GDP and inflation data failed to halt the rise in gold prices, as traders' attention is focused on the trade agenda and upcoming labour market statistics.
Gold is changing its trend due to the rise of the dollar and a shift in the fundamental background. A breakout of the local low could reinforce the decline. The first target is 3190. There is a possibility of a retest of the previously broken consolidation support at 3268 before the decline continues.
Resistance levels: 3245, 3270
Support levels: 3190, 3186, 3167
A breakout of the local low of 3221 could trigger a further decline. The first stop could be around 3190. From this level, a small correction or consolidation may follow before the decline continues.
I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of 3245-3270 before the decline continues.
Best regards, R. Linda!