XAU/USD buy to sell outlookThis week, I’ll be monitoring potential long entries from the nearby 3H demand zone, but my primary focus will be on price retracing into the 4H supply zone around 3,300, where I’ll be watching for a sell opportunity.
This zone aligns with the current bearish momentum we've seen recently, and I’ll wait for price to slow down and show signs of distribution once it reaches this area.Once we see that slowdown, I’ll aim to refine a clean order block for entry, ensuring a clear change of character and avoiding any potential smart money traps or false moves.
Confluences for Gold Sells:
- A clean 4H supply zone has formed, which caused a break of structure to the downside.
- There's significant liquidity resting below, making further downside likely.
- Gold has been heavily overbought and saturated, which supports this correctional bearish move.
- The DXY recently reacted bullish from a strong 2-day demand zone, adding confluence for downside in gold.
- After last week’s sharp decline, a retracement is expected before further downside continuation.
P.S.: There’s also liquidity to the upside in the form of uncollected Asia highs, so don’t be surprised if price sweeps those first before tapping into our supply zone.
Let’s stay patient and smart with entries — have a great weekend, everyone!
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold Trade Plan 02/05/2025-05/05/2025Dear Traders,
The descending channel is working precisely. After hitting the middle of the channel, the price started to drop. I expect another low below 3200, followed by a rise toward around $3400.
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Continuation Within Descending ChannelThis chart shows XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) trading within a clear descending channel. Price recently broke below a key support level, signaling bearish momentum. A potential retest of the broken support (now resistance) is expected before further downside continuation. The chart outlines two bearish targets: the first around 3,193 and the second near 3,100. If the retest fails and sellers step in, the downtrend is likely to continue toward those targets.
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,148.98
1st Support: 3,051.82
1st Resistance: 3,430.57
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GOLD DAILY UPDATE MAY 1ST 2025Chart Is very clear in numbers ,
Expected to continue correcting to the level of 3160 3170, from there must jump to a very high levels, but except real breaking 3160 with confirmation candles on 4 hours timeframe, will take us to more correction down to 3040 max. not really expected but nothing impossible in market.
good luck for all traders.
XAU/USD 4hAs usual, the market is ttracted toward either the support level or the target. It gravitates to one or the other. Once the first “orbit” is left, the price is attracted to the other. Here, we can see that the price remains under the influence of the support level, and the rejection of the bullish-target deviation (pale purple line) is clearly visible.
Since the downtrend is accompanied by strong volume (the blue dot candle), the bearish scenario prevails. The optimal point to enter a short position is at the bullish deviation (gray line), with a bearish target currently around 3,164.
Gold's safe-haven stimulus led to a strong rise!In terms of short-term gold operation ideas, it is recommended to short on rebounds and long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3328-3330 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3260-3252 support line.
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
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Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/6/2025As mentioned yesterday, a break above 3270 will signal the end of correction. Indeed after breaking the resistance, gold has gone up all the way to 3330. Right now there is a strong resistance at 3350. I will trade its breaking of structure or retest from 3270.
This is my strategy for today:
1. if 3350 is broken, upon retest, buy towards 3400 or even 3450.
2. Buy from 3270, 1st target 3350, 2nd target 3400
"XAUUSD Double Setup After Massive Manipulation! 200+ Pips"🚨 Gold (XAUUSD) Smart Money Play Unfolding!
Here's a clean breakdown of the current structure and why this could be a high probability setup:
🔥 First, notice the manipulation zone — classic Smart Money move where liquidity was grabbed aggressively before a shift in market structure. This sets the stage for a bigger play.
📉 Change of Character (ChoCh) confirmed after the sweep, showing clear intent for price to reverse. This is the first signal that buyers are losing control and sellers are stepping in.
📍 First Key Area: Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Price is now retracing into the FVG.
This is our 1st Entry Setup opportunity.
High R/R setup if rejection happens around this level.
📍 Second Key Area: Order Block (OB)
A stronger zone for deeper mitigation.
If price pushes through the FVG, this OB becomes a prime entry spot.
This is the 2nd Setup for another potential short entry.
🏹 Targets and Pip Count:
Immediate target zone offers around 211 pips from the first setup.
Deeper target from second setup offers up to 253 pips move.
🧠 Market Structure & Psychology:
After manipulation, Smart Money always seeks to rebalance inefficiencies (FVG) and mitigate institutional orders (OB).
Weak lows created will likely be swept to fuel the bigger move down.
Multiple liquidity pools above and below current price hint at another round of liquidity hunting.
⚡ Game Plan:
Monitor price action reaction around FVG for short triggers.
If broken, reposition entries at the OB zone.
🚀 Risk Management Reminder:
Always use calculated risk per trade.
Don't chase; let price come to your zone.
Protect capital first, then maximize profits.
✍️ In summary:
This setup shows classic Smart Money Concepts in action: manipulation, structure shift, FVG, OB mitigation — all aligning for a clean bearish move. If executed with patience, this could be one of the smoothest setups of the week!
➡️ Comment "GOLD READY" if you’re stalking this setup with me!
➡️ Tag your trading buddy who needs to see this!
GOLD Weekly OUTLOOK HAPPY MONDAY
XAUUSD GOLD DROPPING FROM 3335 TO 3367
Helping us make substantial positive gains.
Gold will first reach 3338 or 3365 and then drop below.Then it will go to my target which I have mentioned in the target up chart 3260If you like my chat, please support and like it.My charts always come out right. I hope this chart of mine comes out right too.
GOOD LUCK AND TRADE SAFELY!
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XAUUSD Sharp Decline : - Gold experienced a significant drop , reaching a low point around 1st May , looks like it's working on a recovery phase after bottoming out , there is significant bullish momentum play on today's chart.
However the current price is approaching a KEY RESISTANCE @ $3265-68.
KEY ZONES
Go for BUY ORDERS if PRICE breaks $3268.60 and shows strong BULLISH MOMENTUM.
MACD Analysis - is showing strong a BULLISH CROSSOVER with increasing HISTOGRAM BARS, which suggests strong Upward Movement.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern seen indicating POSSIBLE REVERSAL .
A bullish triangle is as well idnetified from the chart indicating UPWARD MOMENTUM.
OVERALL we are BULLISH TODAY, but keep in mind that we still have the CONSOLIDATION PHASE in play.
Gold Price ActionHello, Currently, price is in a Compression Phase after a strong Resistance Breakout (RBO). This tight consolidation is creating liquidity on both sides—setting up for a potential breakout.
What to Watch:
Compression Phase = Liquidity Building
Price is moving within a narrow range, trapping traders and stacking orders above and below.
We're waiting for a clean breakout of this range.
After the breakout, price is likely to retrace back toward the base (marked zone) before making a strong move toward the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
🎯 Trade Plan:
Wait for the compression to break. A return to the base zone could offer an entry, with BSL as the target (TP).
⚠️ Stay patient and avoid early entries—let the breakout confirm the move.
✅ Patience is key—wait for confirmation and manage risk smartly.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Trading Strategy for Next Week This week’s trading wrapped up successfully. Our exclusive VIP trading signals achieved a 90% accuracy rate!
On Friday during the U.S. trading session of the gold market, the Non-Farm Payrolls data was bearish for gold. We directly initiated a short position on gold at 3,260. Although gold rebounded subsequently, it was still prompted that as long as gold did not break through 3,280, a short position should be taken. Below this level remains the optimal price point for placing a short order. Next week, we will still mainly wait for a rebound to initiate short positions.
The signals in the Signature have brought about continuous profits, and accurate signals are shared every day. Hurry up and click to get them!
👇 👇 👇 Obtain signals👉👉👉
Gold will first rebound and adjust its rhythm.The 4H chart is a bullish structure. In the short term, it is necessary to continue to be strong, with the target of 3202-3500 connecting the 50% rebound point of 3350. In the medium term, before breaking through the 61.8% rebound point of 3386, maintain a bearish mindset. Short-term support is 3310, strong support is 3304-3300; short-term resistance is 3328, strong resistance is 3336-3350. If it breaks through strongly, pay attention to the attack and defense of the 3370-3386 range.
Hanzo | Gold 15 min 3315 – Next is bearish Move🆚 Gold – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Reversal at 3317
We are watching this zone closely. Expecting Reversal
———
Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3265
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3318
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 3270 – Major support / Key level
➗ 3325 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 3272 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 7 Swing Retest
• 3325 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 3270 – Equal lows
• 3328 – Equal highs
Gold Rally Continues (Bullish)XAUUSD (GOLD) 4H chart breaking out from Wave (4) with a clean Elliott Wave structure
Targeting the 3,480+ zone for Wave (5) — Fibonacci + EMA confluence + breakout confirmation all lining up!
Entry zone was right near the 0.5–0.618 fib sweet spot 🟦
Now we ride the wave
Current trade idea: Long bias
🎯 Target: $3,480
🛑 Risk: Below $3,166
🔍 Strategy: Wave theory + EMA trend confirmation + structure break
Let me know if you're in this move too — and drop a 🔥 if you caught the setup!
GOLD Gold’s Trade Relationship with the US Dollar and Bond Market (May 2025)
1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the US Dollar
Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) typically move in opposite directions. When the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, and vice versa. This inverse relationship remains strong in 2025, with gold’s beta to the dollar shifting to around -0.7, amplifying the negative correlation.
The US dollar has weakened about 8–9% year-to-date in 2025, contributing to gold’s surge to record highs above $3,500 per ounce.
Dollar weakness is driven by factors such as slowing US growth forecasts, political uncertainty around Federal Reserve independence, and declining foreign demand for US Treasuries.
2. Gold’s Role as a Safe Haven Amid Bond Market Dynamics
In 2025, gold has increasingly become the preferred safe-haven asset, especially as US Treasuries and the dollar have faced sell-offs.
The bond market has experienced rising yields (e.g., 30-year Treasury yields hitting highs not seen since late 2023), which traditionally would pressure gold. However, geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and concerns about real yields have driven investors toward gold instead of bonds.
Gold’s correlation with real yields has shifted strongly negative (around -0.78), meaning that as real yields fall or remain negative, gold prices rise. Negative real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its appeal.
3. Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s high nominal rates combined with inflation running above target have created negative real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation), which historically support gold’s price appreciation.
Expansionary monetary policies globally, including increased money supply growth (M2 up 8.3% YoY among G20 nations), provide liquidity that fuels gold demand.
Tariff-induced inflation and geopolitical risks further elevate gold’s status as a hedge against monetary and trade policy uncertainty.
4. Summary of the Relationship
US Dollar Weakness then Gold price rises (inverse correlation) and Dollar declines.
Rising Bond Yields is Usually bearish for gold, but offset by safe-haven demand in 2025 Yields rise, bonds sell off
Negative Real Yields is Strongly bullish for gold Real yields fall, reducing bond attractiveness
Geopolitical/Tariff Uncertainty Boosts gold as safe haven Increases volatility in dollar and bond markets
Monetary Expansion (Liquidity) Supports gold price Can pressure dollar value
Conclusion
In May 2025, gold’s price surge to record levels is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and negative real bond yields, combined with geopolitical and trade uncertainties that have diminished the safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries. While rising nominal bond yields might typically weigh on gold, the prevailing negative real rates and investor preference for gold as a monetary hedge have reversed this trend. The strong inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains a key dynamic shaping market behavior.