XAUUSD wave structure analysis on 30 minute time frame4H, 1H swing is bullish.
30M swing is bearish, current is pullback.
The current price is in the supply zone of the 30-minute time frame. We can look for selling opportunities in this zone.
XAUUSD trade ideas
Gold at PRZ—Will Bears Take Over Soon!?Today, U.S. Retail Sales data will be released:
Core Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.4%) → If lower than expected, it may indicate weaker consumer spending, potentially weakening the USD ( TVC:DXY ).
Retail Sales (Forecast: 0.4%) → A lower-than-expected reading would signal economic weakness and increase expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Given recent economic trends and previous reports like CPI (inflation) and PPI (producer inflation) coming in higher than expected, retail sales data is more likely to be stronger than forecasted or at least in line with expectations.
Potential Market Impact : If the data is stronger than expected : USD strengthens → Gold declines .
There is a slightly higher probability that the data will be stronger than expected (or in line with forecasts). However, if the data disappoints , the market could react sharply .
If the indexes are close to or match the forecasts, there will be less expectation of emotional market movement.
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Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to rise, as I expected in the previous post . Currently, Gold is near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , the upper line of the Ascending Channel , Monthly Resistance(2) , and Yearly Resistance(1) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . One of the confirmation signs of the end of wave 5 can be the breaking of the lower line of the ascending channel .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Gold to go down to at least $2,920 first after breaking the lower line of the ascending channel, and if the Support zone($2,915-$2,905) is broken, we should wait for an attack on the 100_SMA(1-hour) and the Support line .
Note: If Gold breaks the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , we can expect more pumps.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SEE MY NEXT WEEK TARGETGuys, this is my target for the next week. If anyone needs it, they can trade on it.
GOLD | Key Pivot Holding – Breakout or Rejection?GOLD Technical Analysis – February 21, 2025
Gold is currently trading within the pivot range at $2,935, showing consolidation. The price is still indecisive, and further movement depends on the next breakout.
The price is trying to touch $2918 from $2935, which means as long as trades below $2935.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If Gold closes below $2,918 and confirms with a 4H candle, it may continue its decline toward $2,907 and $2,895.
A breakdown below $2,873 will extend losses toward $2,860 and $2,840.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Stability above $2,935 could push the price toward $2,956 and $2,974 in the next bullish attempt.
A breakout above $2,974 may lead to further highs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: $2,935
Resistance Levels: $2945, $2,956, $2,974
Support Levels: $2,918, $2,895, $2,873
XAUUSD-Potential Selling Opportunity to 2,912?XAUUSD is currently at a clear resistance level that has acted as a zone for bullish momentum. This could signal a potential selling opportunity.
If bearish signals, such as rejection wicks or bearish candlestick patterns, emerge, I expect a move toward 2,912. On the other hand, a breakout above this resistance could weaken the bearish outlook.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck
GOLD's rise has been steady, limited by its all-time peakDuring the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy.
Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates.
The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales.
If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase.
CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish.
The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction.
To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD
Resistance: 2,942USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2955
→Take Profit 1 2943
↨
→Take Profit 2 2937
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2900
→Take Profit 1 2912
↨
→Take Profit 2 2918
Will gold fall again after rebounding?Gold is suppressed by the double top structure in the 4-hour period. Gold rebounded to 2905 and then fell back directly. Gold rebounded to 2905 in the afternoon and continued to go short on highs. The gold short position has just begun and there is no fear of rebound. Gold is just rebounding. Gold will go short directly after the rebound to 2905. Gold will fall as expected and be harvested first. Gold is still just a rebound and will continue to go short on the rebound. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that shorting will be the main focus on rebounds, and longs will be supplemented by callbacks. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2903-2905 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus will be on the 2864-2834 first-line support. Friends, you must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operations. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday.
Gold operation strategy reference:
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches near 2903-2905 when gold rebounds, stop loss 6 points, target near 2890-2875, break to see 2865 line;
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches near 2864-2866 when gold pulls back, stop loss 6 points, target near 2875-2885, break to see 2895 line;
Bear on goldBased on our analysis, there is a high probability that gold may enter a bearish trend in the near future. Several factors contribute to this outlook, including technical indicators, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. Price action suggests that sellers are gaining control, with key support levels being tested and potential breakdowns signaling further downside movement. Additionally, broader economic factors such as interest rate policies, inflation expectations, and the strength of the U.S. dollar could exert additional pressure on gold prices. While the market remains dynamic, our current assessment leans toward a continuation of bearish momentum unless significant changes in fundamentals or technical patterns indicate otherwise.
XAUUSD Sell Setup Xauusd has rejected 2939 level for the third time. So it’s possible it will retest its supports.
If 1 hr candle closes below 2928 than sell with targets given as yellow horizontal lines.
Wait for the candle to close dont rush.
Sl just above the candle which closes below 2928.
Gold on relentless rallyAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: My order has been closed a bit earlier however I don't mind since other way my order would be active over-night where I wouldn't be in situation to maintain my order. I am satisfied however with #15-point Profit as I do expect Gold to continue soaring towards #3,000.80 benchmark if #2,952.80 benchmark gives away. Gold is soaring as well know safe-haven and Tariff's talks resurfacing. Congratulations to Traders who followed my calls."
I have engaged Buying order on #2,944.80 throughout yesterday's session however Gold delivered significant dip towards #2,932.80 Support for the session. I have managed to exit the Trade on #2,935.80 and reduce my loss to decent extent however I have re-Bought on #2,931.80 and closed my order on #2,940.80 and reduced my loss for the session.
My position: Gold is delivering ATH's almost every week in extension and Selling such aggressive Bullish stance is very dangerous even though Selling opportunities appear. I will keep Buying Gold all the way towards #3,000.80 psychological benchmark.
“Resistance Block Breakdown” From the chart, gold has been rejected at the resistance block (the top red zone), which marks a key level of selling pressure. This rejection confirmed the bearish outlook, and a short position was initiated within the green zone above the current price. The green zone represents the entry area for the short trade, which aligns with the overall bearish structure.
The price has since broken below multiple levels, including key supports and trendlines, showing strong downward momentum. This breakdown has solidified the bearish trend, with the price now pushing lower. The target for the short trade is the lower red line at 2,839.447, which serves as a major support level and the likely point where the trader expects the price to slow down or reverse.
The bearish trendline (yellow line) further reinforces this move, as gold continues to respect the downward structure. As long as the price stays below the green entry zone and the red resistance block, the short position remains valid and the bearish momentum intact.
This setup is a textbook example of trading a resistance rejection combined with bearish continuation, aiming for a precise target near 2,839.447.
Can gold break through the high-level fluctuations?Gold technical analysis: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated and rebounded all the way. Today's early trading is close to the historical high of 2940 again. So can it successfully break through 2940 and set a new historical high again? The more times a position is tested, the greater the probability of breaking. Therefore, the probability of gold prices reaching a new high is very high.
At present, the support below is mainly in the 2915-2910 area. In addition, we also know that last year’s market also tested retracements near consecutive historical highs. Then there was a retracement near 2940 on Friday last week. Today’s 2940 retracement. I don’t know if 2940 will continue to suppress the retracement in the future. But you can still try a short-term short near 2940. After all, the cost-effectiveness of the retreat here is very high. The defense is very small. The short-term retreat is considerable. Of course, this is an aggressive approach. If you are prudent, wait for the gold price to rise and then participate in the retreat. At present, the author only sees the pressure of 2955. Therefore, if it hits the 2955 line, you can do a good job of risk control and participate in the retreat.
On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus is on the 2940-2942 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2905-2900 first-line support.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 2940-2942, stop loss 6 points, target around 2930-2920, break to see 2910 line;
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 2906-2910, stop loss 6 points, target around 2920-2930, break to see 2940 line;
DeGRAM | GOLD lower volatilityGOLD is under an ascending channel above the trend lines.
Price is moving towards the $2943 resistance level.
The chart volatility has decreased.
Indicators are pointing to a bearish divergence formed on the 1H Timeframe.
We still expect a correction. The asset is overheated and its correction is only a matter of time.
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XAU daily-setup mondaydear all my friends as we have low LIQ in market because of bank holidays I think its going to be trading range for today.
I will share M1 chart and good entry.
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XAUUSD 4H ANALYSISGold is still in its important resistance zone (2947) and try to break this level.
It tries to reach 3000 levels.
Gold overall trend is still bullish based on our previous analysis.
Consider all levels as a valuable SnR.
As usual we trade on all these levels.
Gold will rally from support levels!Not a long time ago, price reached support level and broke it, after which made a retest and started to grow in channel.
In channel, Gold rose to $2880 level, but at once made correction to support line of channel and then continued to grow.
Soon, price broke $2880 level and rose to resistance line of channel, where it turned around and started to decline.
Gold exited of channel and continued to trades in a wedge, where it fell to support line and then bounced up.
Later it reached resistance line of the wedge, but recently it dropped to support line and now it rising near this line.
In my mind, Gold can bounce up from support line to $2950, thereby exiting from the wedge pattern.
Gold shortGold price over the previous week has declined significantly creating a double top (bearish reversal pattern) in the process. I will wait patiently for price to tap into the order block, indicated by a rectangle as seen on the charts. After which I will look for a bearish pattern, preferably using candlesticks on the 15mins timeframe for a sell. My take profit will be at the previous week's low or the low indicated by a line.
Gold price analysis February 18⭐️Fundamental Analysis
Top US and Russian officials will meet to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, but there are concerns that a decision may be made without the participation of Ukraine and Europe.
Weak risk sentiment has boosted demand for the safe-haven US dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. At the same time, Fed officials were cautious about inflation and interest rate policy, strengthening the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The Fed governor said that inflation is progressing slowly, possibly delaying a rate cut until 2025.
In the coming time, the market will focus on speeches by Fed officials for clues on monetary policy, as well as monitor the developments in negotiations between the US and Russia, a factor that could have a big impact on risk sentiment and gold prices.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold prices approached the 2915 resistance zone before the US session, marking the importance of this price zone today. When the candle does not break through 2915 when Europe enters, SELL to 2906. In case of break 2915, wait for retest buy back around 15 TP around 2927. Pay attention to price reaction around 2920. BUY zones of gold around 2906-2900-2895. SELL zones of gold 2927-2949
The gold market has largely recovered after the sharp sell-offGold prices have been suppressed, but this is about to end as supply is tight and gold flows out of London and the US could re-price gold.
Andy Schectman - President of Miles Franklin Precious Metals said that one of the most worrying problems in the current gold market is that it is increasingly difficult to find and buy physical gold. "Currently, the LBMA takes six to eight weeks to deliver gold - in essence, this is almost a form of default," he said.
In China, some major banks have announced they have run out of gold products due to strong demand. In South Korea, the country's mint has temporarily stopped selling gold bars because of tight supply.
The world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has just withdrawn 16 tons of gold. He said this could be a sign that institutional investors are withdrawing physical gold from the fund, reflecting a loss of confidence in the "paper gold" market.
Xauusd scenario Based on our analysis, there is a high probability that gold may enter a bearish trend in the near future. Several factors contribute to this outlook, including technical indicators, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. Price action suggests that sellers are gaining control, with key support levels being tested and potential breakdowns signaling further downside movement. Additionally, broader economic factors such as interest rate policies, inflation expectations, and the strength of the U.S. dollar could exert additional pressure on gold prices. While the market remains dynamic, our current assessment leans toward a continuation of bearish momentum unless significant changes in fundamentals or technical patterns indicate otherwise.
Bullish Breakout Incoming: Don't Miss the Buy Opportunity!After analyzing XAU/USD, we can see that gold is moving upwards with strong momentum. For today, a small correction is expected, which will allow gold to regain strength. This correction could potentially reach the 2945-2940 range. It’s important to closely monitor the price action around this level and look for entry opportunities on smaller time frames.
HEAD & SHOULDER FORMED ON HOURLY TIMEFRAMEHead & Shoulder pattern has been formed on 1 Hour timeframe. If the price violates the Neckline than we may initiate the Short position with a defined SL and TP.
